[amphibian]

My post got eaten. Will try to replicate.

Briar King, on 20 April 2016 - 01:51 AM, said:

Dammit... She wins NY. I really thought Sanders would get it.

The majority of the Dem party is behind Clinton. That means downstate was securely hers and that's enough to get a majority win in NY.


Upstate and the west went for Sanders, but the demographics are more interesting than simple geography. I think I saw a graphic saying Clinton got ~75% black voters, 55% Hispanic, and 40 some percent of white voters. Sanders did not connect to the older ethnic minority voters downstate.

Obviously, I hope he holds on and has a significant and lasting leftward push on Clinton, but you're seeing the limitations of a flash campaign - not enough time to convince skeptical voters.

This post has been edited by amphibian: 20 April 2016 - 04:20 AM

[worry]

Not that it means much either way, but it's a smaller margin than that by which Clinton beat Obama in '08.

[Tiste Simeon]

Oponn Relationship, on 20 April 2016 - 03:38 AM, said:

Not that it means much either way, but it's a smaller margin than that by which Clinton beat Obama in '08.

How different was it back then? For all the massive steps forward Sanders has made, I can't imagine or recall Obama being behind for the entire primary season...

[Terez]

Obama had the black vote in 2008, so he pulled ahead early with the Deep South vote much in the same way Hillary did.

[amphibian]

Tiste Simeon, on 20 April 2016 - 05:33 AM, said:

Oponn Relationship, on 20 April 2016 - 03:38 AM, said:

Not that it means much either way, but it's a smaller margin than that by which Clinton beat Obama in '08.

How different was it back then? For all the massive steps forward Sanders has made, I can't imagine or recall Obama being behind for the entire primary season...

Sanders pulled 42% to Obama's 40%. Clinton moved up by 0.3% from 57.4 to 57.7%. Clinton won NYC in both primaries.

Weird thing is that she lost most of the areas/counties in the state despite doing better this year, but they were far less peopled than NYC, Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo. Albany went for Sanders (easy to predict that for me since I live there). Last time, she won all but one county.

This post has been edited by amphibian: 20 April 2016 - 06:14 AM

[Tiste Simeon]

Now, I don't know if this website is reliable or biased or anything but if this is as reported, it could be one of the stupidest things Hilary has done...

https://bgr.com/2016...eddit-facebook/

[Tattersail_]

Tiste Simeon, on 25 April 2016 - 07:54 AM, said:

Now, I don't know if this website is reliable or biased or anything but if this is as reported, it could be one of the stupidest things Hilary has done...

https://bgr.com/2016...eddit-facebook/

It is impossible to do. It's like Elton John using the high court junction to stop the press talking about his partner's affair. We all know everything about it thanks to the foreign press. There's no way you can stop the information getting out there. She's better spending the money to have people write positive things about her

[worry]

It's definitely a real thing, and definitely ridiculous. They're like literally a paid Gamergate-style horde of "Actually, it's ____" drones.
It's also pointless since most people don't use social media for politics, like, at all. Reddit & Twitter are imbalanced samples and lead to skewed perceptions.
https://twitter.com/...806053923360768

(I can't find the original source, but Matt Bruenig is down-thread a little confirming that data and its source).

[Terez]

Terez, on 10 March 2016 - 11:59 PM, said:

If I had to guess at shortlists, in order:

Trump:
Chris Christie
Rudy Giuliani
Paul LePage

Cruz:
Carly Fiorina
Mike Lee
Craig Mazin

Called that one. Let's see if Trump picks someone from my list. At this point, he's the only one that really matters. I still think it likely Christie is actually angling for AG, though. Not sure who else should be on his shortlist. I don't think it's very likely he's considering Palin. Who else among his supporters seems appropriate? I haven't been paying much attention lately.

[Morgoth]

Cruz is truly a crazy person. If anything the worst part of Trump's run is that he made Cruz seem almost palatable.

[Gorefest]

He did? A guy who fries bacon on a gun barrel? There is intrinsic palatability here?

Where are all the sane people in the Conservative Party? Have they not considered putting someone forward to run for presidency? Or do they really not exist at all?

[Mentalist]

Gorefest, on 29 April 2016 - 03:22 PM, said:

He did? A guy who fries bacon on a gun barrel? There is intrinsic palatability here?

Where are all the sane people in the Conservative Party? Have they not considered putting someone forward to run for presidency? Or do they really not exist at all?

Sane people are making backroom deals in preparation for the actual convention, would be my guess.

[worry]

Gorefest, on 29 April 2016 - 03:22 PM, said:

Where are all the sane people in the Conservative Party? Have they not considered putting someone forward to run for presidency? Or do they really not exist at all?

They were all too busy drafting their letters asking for leniency for Dennis Hastert.

[amphibian]

This Hastert molestation/financial misdoings thing is one of the most "politics at work" things I have ever seen. It's disgusting, hypocritical, and I am sure dozens of people knew of it before his financial misdoings came to light.

It has repercussions even in today's politics because several Republican bigwigs have asked for leniency or are related to some of the victims of Hastert.

The sanest/best candidates in the Republican party have been pushed towards governorships of states for the last twenty years or so. The Republicans have done a much better job capturing state and local control than they have at the national level. It's honestly screwed over larger chunks of the country because so many state legislatures bought into what the Koch brothers et al are selling - like Kansas and Louisiana.

[worry]

I would add, in tandem with what you said, that with the infiltration of written-by-corporations template legislation, actual skilled governance isn't just less necessary in the GOP, but an outright liability to those with the $$$. It's Starve The Beast 2.0. The astroturf/Tea Party movement ousting establishment GOP legislators was in part about making this kind of thing easier. When you have inexperienced morons forming a major caucus, the legal language has to come from somewhere. That somewhere is corporate lawyers. The Kochs weren't buying fellow ideologues, they were implanting drones.

[HoosierDaddy]

Just got my first Sanders phone-bank phone call. Cited downticket gains, turning over Congress through Bernie's enthusiasm gap as reason to vote Bernie, which is interesting considering the significant amount of Bernie or bust I've seen. But, it is a valid argument if he wins the primary.

This post has been edited by HoosierDaddy: 29 April 2016 - 11:17 PM

[Tsundoku]

Obama at the White House Correspondent's Dinner.

Full speech (apologies for the sound quality):



Smashing Trump:





Youtube also has excerpts of him having a go at Hillary and Bernie if you don't want to watch the whole thing.

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 01 May 2016 - 04:18 AM

[QuickTidal]

So apparently Trump has stated that he thinks that Ted Cruz's father Rafael was in on the JFK assassination?

[HoosierDaddy]

Turn out was ridiculous. Good god.

[Terez]

I see that. And Trump almost got more votes than the Democrats combined.