[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Tiste Simeon, on 03 January 2026 - 09:04 PM, said:

Because BK is suffering under the delusion that the USA are the "good guys"

Wonder if he laughed harder when he saw the photo of Maduro blindfolded and handcuffed. Or was he disappointed that Maduro wasn't also wearing a dunce cap and being pooped on and electrocuted on a crucifix decorated with the stars and stripes and fake gold?

Partial correction to my earlier post---the invasion of Panama to capture Noriega did have three "legal justifications" (or rationalizations) that Trump doesn't have:

Quote

The justification for that action was tripartite: self-defense (Panama had allegedly declared a state of war against the United States, and killed a Marine there); the American treaty with Panama, which authorized the United States to protect the Panama Canal; and finally authority granted by the exiled legitimate government of Panama, which Noriega refused to let govern.

The United States and Venezuela have no Canal Treaty, but Trump does invoke something like a self-defense rationale for his action—this time based not on a dead Marine but on Venezuela's alleged role in sending "thousands of tons of cocaine" up the noses of innocent Americans. Taking part in this nefarious activity is tantamount to an armed attack, the administration says.

https://www.theatlan...o-world/685491/

... and Venezuela is less responsible for the flow of drugs into the United States than many other countries, including China. So Trump could use the same justification to invade any of them. Or any country that he claims is allowing too much of any drug to enter the United States. As he's accused Canada of doing. If he's going in order of "who has the most oil to steal", then it would be... I had to look it up:

https://en.wikipedia...en_oil_reserves

Canada (has less oil than Venezuela but more oil than the United States), then way down the list are Brazil, Guyana, Ecuador, Mexico...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 03 January 2026 - 09:27 PM

[Cause]

The justification Venezuela gave that those other countries didn’t was being weak. It helps that Trump knew the American military could walk in any time they wanted.

[Tsundoku]

Guys, go easy on BK eh? It's just a throwaway figure of speech. I admit I also laughed ruefully when I saw the news.
In an "I-can't-believe-my-pessimistic-self-was-right-here-we-go-again-this-will-not-end-well" way.

Fingers crossed for the Venezuelan people. Which reminds me, I need to check in with a mate from there who has family in Caracas.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 04 January 2026 - 12:17 AM, said:

The justification Venezuela gave that those other countries didn't was being weak. It helps that Trump knew the American military could walk in any time they wanted.

Guyana has a much weaker military than Venezuela, and is a major transit hub for drugs going to the United States (frequently the path is from Colombia through Venezuela to Guyana)---but Guyana also has a lot less oil.

Ecuador and Cuba also rank below Venezuela in Global FirePower's 2025 Military Strength Ranking, fwiw. Peru ranks just one above Venezuela, and they have a lot of valuable copper and a left-wing government.

https://www.globalfi...ies-listing.php

(Brazil has the top-ranked military in Latin America at 11, Spain is higher than any other primarily Spanish-speaking country at 17, Australia is 18, Ukraine is 20 (what?), and Canada is 28.)

But Trump today was explicitly threatening military action against Mexico, Cuba, and Colombia, saying that the president of Colombia has to "watch his ass".

My guess is that the threat against Colombia was mostly just Trump trying to walk back his obvious focus on oil and make it seem like it was about drugs. Or, in the case of Cuba, Communism---and also trying to fire up anti-Castro Cuban-Americans.

Tsundoku, on 04 January 2026 - 12:41 AM, said:

Guys, go easy on BK eh? It's just a throwaway figure of speech. I admit I also laughed ruefully when I saw the news.
In an "I-can't-believe-my-pessimistic-self-was-right-here-we-go-again-this-will-not-end-well" way.

IDK, he phrased it as if he lol'd not at the invasion but specifically Maduro and his wife being kidnapped, like a gleeful giggle of triumph at Steal Team Trump going in and grabbing the "bad guy" (and his wife).

And I've seen a lot of social media posts mocking Maduro's appearance in that photo of him blindfolded in handcuffs that Trump posted.

Plus I think BK can handle it.

[Lady Bliss]

IMO and I know it’s a conspiracy theory but I think Trump, Putin, Xi, and Netanyahu have all made deals to split up the world, or at least most of it. Putin gets Eastern Europe. China gets most of Asia, Netanyahu a chunk of the Middle East and we can have as much of central or South America as we can grab. All of the “condemnation” that they have for each other is just saber rattling to keep up the appearance that they aren’t working together on these land grabs.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Lady Bliss, on 04 January 2026 - 04:33 PM, said:

IMO and I know it's a conspiracy theory but I think Trump, Putin, Xi, and Netanyahu have all made deals to split up the world, or at least most of it. Putin gets Eastern Europe. China gets most of Asia, Netanyahu a chunk of the Middle East and we can have as much of central or South America as we can grab. All of the "condemnation" that they have for each other is just saber rattling to keep up the appearance that they aren't working together on these land grabs.

Trump and his administration's official NSS document have endorsed a return to "Spheres of Influence" of that sort and it seems extremely likely that Trump (of The Art of the Deal) has made secret deals with Russia and China---though whether his MAGA successors (or future Trump himself) will also continue to honor them may be (like the world) up for grabs. He's explicitly endorsed his version of the Monroe Doctrine, which on Saturday he rechristened "the Donroe Doctrine"---like the Monroe Doctrine minus the part about not colonizing the Americas.

Back to that photo of Maduro:

Quote

(The ear defenders and blindfold, as well as the picture published by the US of Maduro wearing them, are, incidentally, breaches of that quaint document known as the Geneva Convention.)

In the process of the abduction, it is being reported that at least 40 Venezuelans were killed, including civilians who were sleeping in their beds when a hellfire missile from a US fighter jet tore through an apartment building.

PBS, The Guardian, The Washington Post and others called this murderous violence and flagrant breach of international law "an audacious raid." ABC News called it "stunning." Sky News said it was "spectacular" and "stunning" and the bombs "lit up the night sky." You'd be forgiven for thinking they were describing a new year's eve fireworks display[...]

[...] Trump said [...] "we have to do it again in other countries. We can do it again, too. Nobody can stop us."

https://www.donotpan...civilians-media

And not just to Latin America:

Quote

MAGA acolytes are already thinking ahead about what President Donald Trump's next unauthorized move should be: conquering Greenland.

Katie Miller, [...] wife of top Trump aide Stephen Miller, responded to the news that U.S. forces had invaded Venezuela and kidnapped [...] Maduro with a post on X hinting at the administration's next target.

"SOON," Miller wrote in all-caps above a map of Greenland with the U.S. flag superimposed on top.




https://www.thedaily...nezuela-attack/

And from Trump himself:

Quote

"We do need Greenland, absolutely," Trump told the Atlantic magazine on Sunday.

[...] Jennifer Kavanagh, the director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a thinktank that advocates restraint in US foreign policy, said [...] "It wouldn't be that hard for the US to put a couple hundred or a couple thousand troops inside of Greenland, and it's not clear to me who could do anything about it."

US attack on Venezuela raises fears of future Greenland takeover | Greenland | The Guardian

Trump has been talking about addressing the affordability crisis by sending people checks from the profit off of tariffs. But the tariffs haven't been pulling in anywhere near enough money to pay for those checks.

Perhaps plundering Venezuela and Greenland---and selling the rights to US oil, mining, and shipping companies---will make up the difference. Of course, many Americans might refuse these "Trump plunder checks"---but most of them would probably not be Trump supporters anyway. And those who do use them may feel actively complicit in the plunder of the Americas, and that may induce them to negate any ethical compunctions. No doubt many of the Christian religious leaders who support Trump will figure out a way to declare this plunder holy.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: Yesterday, 05:46 PM

[Abyss]

Removing a generally hated dictator from not-a-power-but-full-o-drugs Venezuela is one thing, but Greenland belongs to NATO/EU member Denmark. This is just another 'Canada as the 51st state' distraction.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Abyss, on 04 January 2026 - 05:55 PM, said:

Removing a generally hated dictator from not-a-power-but-full-o-drugs Venezuela is one thing, but Greenland belongs to NATO/EU member Denmark. This is just another 'Canada as the 51st state' distraction.

Quote

What happens when a NATO member invades another member? In practice, not much. The most famous article in the North Atlantic Treaty is probably Article 5, which states that "an attack over one member is an attack on all". However, for this article to be enacted, as all other decisions taken by the North Atlantic Council (NAC), a unanimous consensus is needed. This means that in case a member state invaded another member, the aggressor would also have to agree for all the other members to respond against it, something that, logically, will never happen. This has actually been seen before, when Greece and Turkey (both NATO members) fought against each other in the 1974 Cyprus Crisis, without the invocation of Article 5.

Let's play a war game: What would an American invasion of Greenland look like? - DEBAT

Neither is just a distraction. Trump and MAGA genuinely want Greenland and Canada for their natural resources and strategic positioning in the Arctic as melting ice opens it up to shipping. Will they actually seize Greenland? Hard to say. I'm leaning towards yes, before the end of Trump's presidency. Canada would be more difficult and a much harder sell to the US public and the armed forces, though I suspect that after seizing Greenland Trump or his MAGA successors may take a cue from Putin's campaign against Chechnya by implementing a "false flag" operation, perhaps making it appear as if Canadians attacked US forces stationed in or near Greenland.

[QuickTidal]

Sigh. Azath…come on man, think it through.

Canada is still your largest trading partner…you don’t go to war with your largest trading partner…wars cost money…your fertilizer would drop to nothing without our potash and your country would start to starve…

It’s also the longest undefended border on the planet….and we look just like you…you could not even take and hold Vietnam, a country a fraction of our size and population…and they didn’t look like you….but somehow you’re going to take us? LOL

No one, even those in thrall to that dickhead in congress are THAT stupid. He can talk a good game about us, but actually trying to take us would be a bloodbath, and I think even trump knows it.

Worse, he would get no help (help Im sure he would expect were he serious) from Russia…because why would Putin help him grow in land and resources making the US more of a direct threat to him.

None of this will happen. Venezuela is easy as they have no nukes, and they can easily regime change with Machado who is willing to give Exxon back the majority of their oil interest (80% I think)…the us gets to stave off BRICS and hang on by a thread to the global currency shit…because that’s the real worry here, trumps been told that if the BRICS countries gain advantage in trading without them, the USD falls and the economy becomes not just underwater but submarined…so that’s what this is about and that’s why it’s not todo with us, or Greenland….Katie Miller is just beating her stupid chest.

Know that authoritarian empires don’t fall quietly, they go kicking and screaming…

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: Yesterday, 06:41 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 04 January 2026 - 06:38 PM, said:

Sigh. Azath…come on man, think it through.

Canada is still your largest trading partner…you don't go to war with your largest trading partner…wars cost money…your fertilizer would drop to nothing without our potash and your country would start to starve…

It's also the longest undefended border on the planet….and we look just like you…you could not even take and hold Vietnam, a country a fraction of our size and population…and they didn't look like you….but somehow you're going to take us? LOL

No one, even those in thrall to that dickhead in congress are THAT stupid. He can talk a good game about us, but actually trying to take us would be a bloodbath, and I think even trump knows it.

Worse, he would get no help (help Im sure he would expect were he serious) from Russia…because why would Putin help him grow in land and resources making the US more of a direct threat to him.

None of this will happen. Venezuela is easy as they have no nukes, and they can easily regime change with Machado who is willing to give Exxon back the majority of their oil interest (80% I think)…the us gets to stave off BRICS and hang on by a thread to the global currency shit…because that's the real worry here, trumps been told that if the BRICS countries gain advantage in trading without them, the USD falls and the economy becomes not just underwater but submarined…so that's what this is about and that's why it's not todo with us, or Greenland….Katie Miller is just beating her stupid chest.

Know that authoritarian empires don't fall quietly, they go kicking and screaming…

Trump only cares about controlling natural resources and shipping routes, not about humanely governing the populace. A full occupation would not be necessary. His successors will probably feel the same, even if they give lip service to part of theocratic MAGA's obsession with outlawing abortion etc.

On potash:

Quote

Does Canada Have the U.S. "By the Throat" on Food Security?

In terms of food security, certainly not. The USA has the lowest food cost-to-GDP of any country on Earth. Some even argue that one of the big causes of obesity is that food is "too cheap" to the consumer. Even if food prices doubled, that's a significant inconvenience, but it isn't a matter of not having enough food. (Contrast with places where people spend over 1/3 of their income on food. If you spend 40% of your income on rice, and rice prices double...that's very bad.)

As something that could affect food production, and thus profits from sales, possibly. However, potash is not needed for crops, just helpful for increasing yield. Plus, crop prices are based on supply and demand, and in many ways there is a Red Queen's Race. Good yields seem like they would be good, but if that results in lower prices, it isn't always that much more profitable. Of course, the best option is for your yield to be high while all your competitors have have low yield. But if potash supplies were limited, then "everyone" would have low yields, and the individual farmer would not be quite so affected.

https://www.reddit.c...omment/mh9hcoj/

It's common for farmers to forgo using, or use substantially less potash. It happens all the time when potash prices are high. There's enough of it in the soil that they can stop using it for a few seasons.

https://www.reddit.c...omment/mha16am/

Trump/MAGA would attempt to blockade Canada (partly by using the new "Trump class" fleet and drones, planes, and missiles launched from it, as well as strategic positioning in Greenland and Alaska), perhaps largely preventing Canadian potash from reaching anyone beyond the United States, and limiting world potash supplies for everyone (so that US producers would not be at a competitive disadvantage)---and perhaps less so for the United States, if at least some of the Canadian potash and/or potash mines (the vast majority of which are in Saskatchewan) can be seized early on. Meanwhile, since Russia and Belarus are the world's 2nd and 3rd largest potash producers, Trump/MAGA would almost certainly coordinate this with them. Plus the United States does have substantial potash deposits: it's just a matter of setting up the mines and production, which while it will probably take years could be accelerated by an authoritarian regime.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: Yesterday, 07:42 PM

[Garak]

The Trump fleet that is full of technologies that aren't even developed yet and with not enough major ports to even build the damn things? Because every major port is kinda busy with making new carriers to replace the current ones which are kinda old. Oh and the Trump ships will be gas and diesel powered while being filled with systems that require a hell of a lot of energy.


I don't think those ships will ever happen. Design phase takes years. His "it will be done in 2 years" is pure delusion.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Garak, on 04 January 2026 - 08:09 PM, said:

The Trump fleet that is full of technologies that aren't even developed yet and with not enough major ports to even build the damn things? Because every major port is kinda busy with making new carriers to replace the current ones which are kinda old. Oh and the Trump ships will be gas and diesel powered while being filled with systems that require a hell of a lot of energy.

I don't think those ships will ever happen. Design phase takes years. His "it will be done in 2 years" is pure delusion.

The fanciful elements will probably be dropped, and the fleet probably won't be completed until the mid to late 2030's. The chances of a US military assault on Canada before then are low but nontrivial. If MAGA is still in power by the mid to late 2030's, particularly if Putin-like authoritarian rule has been established, there is a strong chance they will coordinate the assault on Canada (including the blockade) with China's invasion of Taiwan and Russian assaults on European nations.

Cut off from Canadian, Russian, Belarussian, and Chinese potash, those parts of the world opposed to the new inverted Axis Powers may have diminished capability to grow food (if new technologies have not drastically improved food production by then without dependence on potash).

Of course on that 10 to 15 year time-frame other technological developments will almost certainly make occupation more feasible, though I'd suppose I'm supposed to limit my discussion of them to the Algorithms and Automation thread.

[Macros]

Design alone will take years