QuickTidal, on 29 May 2025 - 11:56 AM, said:
So the tariffs are gone. Likely permanently. The Court of International Trade ruled against Trumps ability to use tariffs.
And for those who worry about how the courts can't 'enforce' this - (becuase this MFer has trampled over every court order he''s seen)
This is a different and reverse enforcement situation.
The court doesn't *need* to enforce anything - this verdict in and of itself removes any legal obligation on the behalf of importers to pay the tariffs.
So it would be up to *Trump* to try to force giant corporations with huge legal teams to pay tariffs even though they don't have to, according to the court order. They're not going to do that - their asses are legally covered now, so they just won't pay.
For any who haven't seen the news yet, the appeals court has put a pause on the repeal, so the tariffs are still in effect.
The tariffs are most likely going to remain in effect throughout the appeals process, with the Supreme Court having the final say. (If the appeals court changes its mind about allowing the tariffs to remain in effect during appeal, Trump will file an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court. Wouldn't it make more sense to determine whether something is constitutional or not before letting Trump do it? IMO yes, but the current Supreme Court seems more sympathetic to the argument that that would excessively impede the executive branch's ability to govern competently.) Here's hoping one of the Trump appointees defects again.
But---assuming they do remain in effect during the appeals---Trump will almost certainly try his time-tested tactic of dragging court proceedings out as much as possible. With assistance from Alito and Thomas.
Even if the Supreme Court eventually rules against them, Trump has several legally well-established methods for unilaterally imposing tariffs:
Quote
Federal law allows Trump to impose tariffs of up to 15% for up to 150 days in situations where imports exceed exports to a degree deemed a crisis.
He could also use a legal provision called Section 232 to impose industry-specific tariffs following an investigation into how imports affect national security, as he's recently done with steel, aluminum, vehicles, and auto parts.
And then there's Section 301, which allows the president to investigate a country for abusive trade practices—a rule he leveraged to put tariffs on China during his first term.
https://www.morningb...5c1c24ba1abe64f
The section 232 sectoral tariffs would require a period of investigation and public commentary before implementation, but it's been suggested that Trump could start by using the 15% tariff for 150 days and then transition to sectoral tariffs or tariffs justified by Section 301.
Mentalist, on 29 May 2025 - 05:59 PM, said:
I wonder how that'll push the bond market.
On the one hand, institutional stability.
On the other hand, negative tariff income means the budget will be even more broken, which should push interest further up.
There's also this provision in the tax bill:
Quote
increasing tax rates for individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US deems "discriminatory." This includes raising tax rates on passive income, such as interest and dividends, earned by investors who are potentially sitting on trillions in American assets.
[...] If signed into law, it would further drive away foreign investors at a time when their once ironclad confidence in Treasury bonds and other US assets has already been shaken by Trump's erratic trade policies and the nation's deteriorating fiscal accounts.
[...] Among those potentially affected: institutional investors including sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and even government entities, as well as retail investors and businesses with US assets.
[...] The provision amounts to "weaponization of US capital markets into law" that "challenges the open nature of US capital markets by explicitly using taxation on foreign holdings of US assets as leverage to further US economic goals,"
"We see this legislation as creating the scope for the US administration to transform a trade war into a capital war if it so wishes, a development that is highly relevant in the context of today's court decision constraining President Trump on trade policy."
Section 899 takes aim at countries including Canada, the UK, France and Australia that impose "digital services taxes" on large technology companies such as Meta Platforms Inc. The clause also targets countries using provisions in a multi-country deal for minimum corporate taxes.
[...] While some are skeptical if the Section 899 would survive on concern it would dampen foreign investment into the US, Signum Global Advisors predicts it will likely remain in the final version of the reconciliation package, in part because it has broad Republican support.
https://finance.yaho...-195608308.html
[Edit: even with section 232 sectoral tariffs Trump can still grant some countries exemptions or lowered rates---as the Trump administration already did for the UK trade deal, lowering the tariff on cars from the UK to 10%.]
This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: Today, 12:14 PM