[amphibian]

Tiste Simeon, on 09 November 2022 - 06:25 PM, said:

So from what the BBC are telling me it seems that while the turds are likely to regain the house it hasn't been as bad (so far) as feared?

The forecasters and news people sort of refuse to believe that they've been snowed a bit into overestimating the chances of the GOP winning in each place - and also snowed into underplaying the amount of crooked gerrymandering and voter suppression that's rigging the votes to give the GOP this much political power.

There's a very decent chance that the Democrats retain the Senate and a low chance that they retain the House. That's fairly good in terms of the possible outcomes, but if a few things didn't happen, the Dems probably easily keep control of both and that they didn't is an organizational failing going back a few years.

One of the things that led to the GOP being able to pick up this many seats was the previous governor of NY, Andrew Cuomo, stacking the highest court with very conservative Democrat and one Republican justice. When a state redistricting effort came to their court, they put out something that heavily favored the GOP. The chief justice came up with Cuomo and kinda encouraged a "tradition of the olden days" approach of absolutely screwing with things as per the orders of Cuomo/party boss - which usually was to try and play off the GOP and the Dems with him in the middle holding personal political power to get past the deadlocks. So when he flamed out and it became public that he sexually harassed multiple women in my current workplace (I work in the Capitol), the dynamic went to hell, the Dem Senate got much stronger, pushed through a bunch of good stuff, Hochul picked up what she could and actually was doing a better job than Cuomo, yet the courts decided to listen to him and fuck the Dems over with the gerrymandered map that was "corrected in the interests of avoiding gerrymandering" - the utter cheek of this!

So Sean Patrick Maloney (a relatively powerful, gay, centrist congressman and head of the Dem House campaign committee) decided to push Mondaire Jones out of that area, Mondaire went elsewhere, Maloney lost his election, and other GOP people picked up elsewhere in the state due to redrawn lines.

Low level bungles after bungles.

[Lady Bliss]

Abyss, on 09 November 2022 - 05:47 PM, said:

Primateus, on 09 November 2022 - 05:10 PM, said:

Macros, on 09 November 2022 - 02:47 PM, said:

OK, that aside.

What would make anyone vote for walker, when he has been exposed as such a hypocrite and shit even by fox news??

Back when Roy Moore was running for office and it came out that he, as a man in his thirties had been trying to hit up sexual relations with young women in their early teens (I don't know if he actually succeeded), the republican voters insisted that even if it was true, which they did not believe, they would still vote for him because they did not want to lose a senate seat.

So it is not really surprising that they would vote for Walker, hypocrite or not, in order to keep the seat in republican hands.

It appears to me that in the US, when democrat voters dislike the dem candidate, they don't vote, while the republican candidate could appear on CNN, Fox, and MSNBC simultaneously, wearing nothing but a tutu and the blood of decapitated kittens and meth candy chains, preaching the values of arranged child marriage, and they would still get out and vote for the guy because fuck those woke liberal fascist dem feminists anyways.

Pretty much

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Trump Reportedly "Furious" at Oz’s Flop and Blames Melania for Endorsing Him

[...] "describing it as not her best decision [...]"'

Trump Reportedly ‘Furious’ at Oz’s Flop and Blames Melania for Endorsing Him

lol...

[Primateus]

Of course he does, nothing is ever Trump's fault.

[Mentalist]

So, runoff in Georgia, and Dems need to hold onto Arizona today to keep the reps out.

House looking like GOP might get a +2-3 majority.

Let's see, I guess.

[Mentalist]

So with 31 House seats still up in the air, the GOP are leading in 9 districts.


The results in 3 need to flip in order for them to not win.

Also, the Senate gap in Nevada has gotten smaller, but I'm guessing they'll still take it. Sigh.

[worry]

I'm relatively optimistic on Nevada for the Senate, though it's gonna be close for sure. But yeah, the House is a goner, but hopefully only by like half a dozen...the next R Speaker ain't herding those cats.

[Mentalist]

worry, on 11 November 2022 - 05:58 PM, said:

I'm relatively optimistic on Nevada for the Senate, though it's gonna be close for sure. But yeah, the House is a goner, but hopefully only by like half a dozen...the next R Speaker ain't herding those cats.

RN it looks like they'll only get a 2-3 vote majority barring some more upsets. And a few of those leads are razor-thin, so fingers crossed?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'How young voters became the wall for the "red wave"

[...] well before even the Dobbs decision, young Americans were telling us in our focus groups and our Harvard polling and other research, that they were very concerned about losing their rights and freedoms, that they felt like they were under attack. That's one. A second thing we found was that only 7% a year ago felt like they were living in a healthy democracy. Today, that number is down to 4%.

[...] as we've been saying over the last couple of weeks, as we released this Harvard survey, that we weren't sure whether we were going to see a red wave or a blue wave, but we were pretty confident that we would see a Gen Z wave. And that's what the data shows 24 hours later.

[...] Volpe is the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics'

How young voters became the wall for the 'red wave'

'2022 youth turnout is likely the second-highest for a midterm election in the past 30 years, behind only the historic 31% turnout in 2018. Votes from young people made up 12% overall in this election, nearly matching the 13% youth share of the vote from the 2014 and 2018 midterms.

[...] Those results align with a Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics poll of 2,123 18-to-29-year-olds this fall which indicated that 40% would “definitely" vote in the midterm elections, and 57% said they preferred Democratic control of Congress.

The Harvard poll predicted that young Americans under 30 who live in battleground states were more likely to vote than those from traditional red or blue states. The majority of these voters agreed that their rights and others' rights are under attack. About 28% of voters said inflation was the most important issue to them, but when adjusted to only women voters, abortion rights became the most important issue at 24%, with only 21% considering inflation to be their top priority.

[...] "For many young Americans, abortion rights, the future of our planet, and our democracy itself are all on the line this November — and they are acting accordingly."'

The midterms did not show a ‘red wave.’ That’s thanks to Gen Z voters, experts say

[Mentalist]

maryland flipped!

2 more.....

[Cause]

A second court has blocked student debt relief. I imagine that will piss of gen Z a lot. And Millenials too

[Mentalist]

California 13th and 41st- leads are 500-1300 votes only.

Come on.......

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 11 November 2022 - 09:01 PM, said:

A second court has blocked student debt relief. I imagine that will piss of gen Z a lot. And Millenials too

'“The program is thus an unconstitutional exercise of Congress’s legislative power and must be vacated,” wrote Judge Mark Pittman, [...] nominated by [...] Trump.

“In this country, we are not ruled by an all-powerful executive with a pen and a phone,”'

Student loan forgiveness: Federal court strikes down Biden's program

Well there's a way to fix that then....

Though I guess the Supreme Court---assuming it grants standing and agrees with this argument---could come up with some other excuse to block it.

[worry]

It’s my understanding that this judge even finding these plaintiffs had standing was some of the most torturous pretzel logic imaginable. But that’s the new norm with Fed Soc justices in charge, so who knows.

[Slow Ben]

Nevada looking good after the last ballot drop. Looking more likely we’ll go into the Georgia runoff hoping to get it to 51 instead of needing to get it to 50.

[worry]

The election stats folks I follow are at:
NV: R governor; D Senator (somewhat iffy & too close to call yet, but still more likely than not).
AZ: D Senator; D governor (but the most iffy/nerve-wracking); crazy not likely to win Secretary of State though, which was another big threat there.

Definitely still gotta keep fingers crossed for no big shocks.

[Mentalist]

Arizona senate locked, but governor might be close call. Nevada Senate looking hopeful, but they lost governor

One of the Cali districts the GOP lead is down to 84 (!!!) votes.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 12 November 2022 - 03:52 AM

[amphibian]

To follow up on the Sean Patrick Maloney and Cuomo thing, the initial redistrict map of NY would have made this current House at least +5 Democrats. The failure of the Cuomo administration and failure to get a non-gerrymamdered election map through purposeful incompetence screwed the country over. For many years, Cuomo wanted to always have a dynamic of rigging things to favor the GOP to ensure that the Democrats couldn't do things without his push, which gave him a bit of power. He enabled the Independent Democratic Caucus to undermine the Democrats for almost a decade, hated that it fell apart, then once he got pushed out of office, he pushed heavily for Maloney to make certain political/financial moves. It didn't work out, although Maloney made many of his own decisions rather than just taking marching orders from Andrew Cuomo.

It's one thing to run a political machine. It's entirely another and considerably worse thing for it to be incompetent still. That's what Cuomo, Maloney, and Jeff Jacobs have set up in NY.

AOC is right in calling for Jacobs to be gone (and has been for more than a year now). I think most of the higher ups in that machine are out of political power, so it will crumble soon - but they did a ton of damage on the long way out.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Marjorie Taylor Greene's tweet condemning "candidate quality" quickly backfires on Twitter

[...Greene tweeted:] "We should start declaring politically biased news in-kind donations if we really want to level the playing field in order to stop the media from using their all-powerful platforms as campaign arms of the DCCC. It takes a tremendous fight to beat the media [...] If Republican mega-donors & Republican organizations want to really finally win, they should buy media and big tech companies and get the message out. Fight smarter." [...]

It's no secret that Greene was stripped of her House committee duties after supporting social media posts that called for the murder of Democratic lawmakers.

[...] "Candidate Quality?!!!" another user tweeted. "Good one! You’re ground zero for disgraceful candidates that shouldn’t run for dog catcher let alone Congress!!"'

'A huge oxymoron': Marjorie Taylor Greene's tweet condemning 'candidate quality' quickly backfires on Twitter

lol...

[Mentalist]

YUS, NEVADA HOLDS!

House: Reps lead in 9 10 races, need 7 to win. How many more can flip?

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 13 November 2022 - 04:00 AM