[Fener]

Shadow, on 30 January 2012 - 05:54 PM, said:

He could also be implying that he is Takeda. They're not in a favorable position with only 2 left, and only retainers at that.

And maybe I am being paranoid about the megalliance, but think about it for a moment. What's the point of alliances? Do leaders gain something from it? Alliances could well create a victory condition. If an alliance achieves voting parity, they win?

History doesn't show that a single faction stands alone very often. It would be an interesting game indeed if the Ashikaga maintained their control of the territory again, with the Fujiwari granted power and land for their assistance in the struggle.

The problem with the voting parity thing is that allies don't know each other, other than the fact that they're allied. Not even everyone in a faction is known to everyone in that faction. They could well "control" a majority of votes between them after a certain point, but they could just as easily lynch one of their own - we haven't seen votes not counting as yet - in fact we've seen the opposite with double votes.

[Omtose]

Fener, on 30 January 2012 - 06:05 PM, said:

Shadow, on 30 January 2012 - 05:54 PM, said:

He could also be implying that he is Takeda. They're not in a favorable position with only 2 left, and only retainers at that.

And maybe I am being paranoid about the megalliance, but think about it for a moment. What's the point of alliances? Do leaders gain something from it? Alliances could well create a victory condition. If an alliance achieves voting parity, they win?

History doesn't show that a single faction stands alone very often. It would be an interesting game indeed if the Ashikaga maintained their control of the territory again, with the Fujiwari granted power and land for their assistance in the struggle.

The problem with the voting parity thing is that allies don't know each other, other than the fact that they're allied. Not even everyone in a faction is known to everyone in that faction. They could well "control" a majority of votes between them after a certain point, but they could just as easily lynch one of their own - we haven't seen votes not counting as yet - in fact we've seen the opposite with double votes.

Yes, not only do most people not know who is in their faction/alliance but the majority of us do not know what the alliances signify, why they are made, how they break or what kind of lasting impact they have on the game or winning conditions. Which is why people might want to lynch what they consider a know, so someone like Karatallid but just as important to consider is that there could be benefits to having members of smaller factions around to create blocks against larger alliances and to stop them from controlling the game.

[Shadow]

I was implying that an alliance could simply create a winning condition. Not that they would vote night like in a town v scum game and win by nk. No, I meant that an alliance would create a condition in which the 2 allied factions win if they become the majority. It has nothing to do with the alliance players knowing eachother, and I never said it did.

Jesus Omtose, of course we dont know what alliances signify. The only people who know that are likely leaders, and half of those are dead.

I started this game with absolutely no knowledge of mechanics, my team, other teams, factions, killing, nothing. I know absolutely nothing for sure. But that hasn't stopped me from speculating and forming opinions that make sense.

Do you know what doesn't make sense? Lynching someone that isn't part of the powerhouse that is Ashikaga and Fujiwari. There's no sense in doing that if you're part of the 3 minor factions. I'm absolutely astonished that you would even suggest it.

Putting all that temporarily aside, there's no guarantee Kara (was it Kara or tiam?) is even Miura or Takeda. Could be a bluff.

But in the theoretical situation in which he IS part of one of those two groups, your play is absolutely horrible unless one of of three things is true.

1. You are a member of the Ashikaga clan.
2. You are a member of the Fujiwari clan.
3. You have some kind of information that I don't. This is always a possibility, but I am going to discount it for the sake of my sanity.

[Karatallid]

i'm Muira. I started off knowing the person above me was okaros. I have no idea if he was head honcho or someone was above him. I am effectively ri. The only way for me to last is to help another team. Maybe they'll form an alliance with me until end game but for now with no allies except myself i've revealed to find some. I see myself playing against 10 people here. I'm still on phone as i have no internet access at all

[Sheltatha Lore]

Hmm, interesting. I will

remove vote

for now. If he's lying, that's a strange move, specially considering he was under little pressure. Plus, why would he lie if the real last Muira was still around?

[Fener]

Karatallid, on 30 January 2012 - 08:30 PM, said:

i'm Muira. I started off knowing the person above me was okaros. I have no idea if he was head honcho or someone was above him. I am effectively ri. The only way for me to last is to help another team. Maybe they'll form an alliance with me until end game but for now with no allies except myself i've revealed to find some. I see myself playing against 10 people here. I'm still on phone as i have no internet access at all

IT'S MIURA!!!

[Fener]

Shadow, on 30 January 2012 - 08:07 PM, said:

I was implying that an alliance could simply create a winning condition. Not that they would vote night like in a town v scum game and win by nk. No, I meant that an alliance would create a condition in which the 2 allied factions win if they become the majority. It has nothing to do with the alliance players knowing eachother, and I never said it did.

Jesus Omtose, of course we dont know what alliances signify. The only people who know that are likely leaders, and half of those are dead.

I started this game with absolutely no knowledge of mechanics, my team, other teams, factions, killing, nothing. I know absolutely nothing for sure. But that hasn't stopped me from speculating and forming opinions that make sense.

Do you know what doesn't make sense? Lynching someone that isn't part of the powerhouse that is Ashikaga and Fujiwari. There's no sense in doing that if you're part of the 3 minor factions. I'm absolutely astonished that you would even suggest it.

Putting all that temporarily aside, there's no guarantee Kara (was it Kara or tiam?) is even Miura or Takeda. Could be a bluff.

But in the theoretical situation in which he IS part of one of those two groups, your play is absolutely horrible unless one of of three things is true.

1. You are a member of the Ashikaga clan.
2. You are a member of the Fujiwari clan.
3. You have some kind of information that I don't. This is always a possibility, but I am going to discount it for the sake of my sanity.

Ok, let's have some debate then.

I disagree about the winning conditions part. Why? Because it's not necessary. We could easily come down to a situation in which two factions have an equal number of surviving members AND they all know each other through reveals or however else. In that situation, no one will be lynched, and it's a draw, and the scene you described will happen whereby Shin informs us that such and such factions both managed to carve out territories for themselves.

So what do alliances do? Well, I went back and confirmed a suspicion I've had since the results of night 2. I'll be very surprised if no one else has also suspected this but has decided to keep their mouths shut and so sow added confusion and mystery. But I think that even if we are all (mostly) in different factions, we can put our heads together for something like this:

Day 1: Takeda-Fujiwari and Uesugi-Ashikaga alliances

Night 1: Ashikaga killed by Takeda

Day 2: Takeda-Fujiwari alliance

Night 2: Fujiwari killed by Miura/Uesugi, Takeda killed by Ashikaga

Day 3: Ashikaga-Fujiwari alliance

Night 3: Miura killed by Fujiwari, Miura killed by Ashikaga, Takeda killed by Uesugi


What's the common denominator here? Come on, I know you can work it out....yes...yes...almost there....that's right....come on.......

No allies have NK'd each other. Thus, my assumption is that alliances stop actions against your allies going through. Notice how there were less deaths when there were more alliances.

[Fener]

To put it another way, you are safe from attacks directed at you by members of the faction you're allied with. Thus, alliances = less chance of death for your faction members (and ditto for the other faction involved)

Opinions?

[Fener]

For the record, Karatallid's reveal, if true, revises my belief that Tiam is in the same faction as Tulas Shorn.

In fact, I've had to juggle quite a few names about

[Omtose]

Shadow, on 30 January 2012 - 08:07 PM, said:

I was implying that an alliance could simply create a winning condition. Not that they would vote night like in a town v scum game and win by nk. No, I meant that an alliance would create a condition in which the 2 allied factions win if they become the majority. It has nothing to do with the alliance players knowing eachother, and I never said it did.

Jesus Omtose, of course we dont know what alliances signify. The only people who know that are likely leaders, and half of those are dead.

I started this game with absolutely no knowledge of mechanics, my team, other teams, factions, killing, nothing. I know absolutely nothing for sure. But that hasn't stopped me from speculating and forming opinions that make sense.

Do you know what doesn't make sense? Lynching someone that isn't part of the powerhouse that is Ashikaga and Fujiwari. There's no sense in doing that if you're part of the 3 minor factions. I'm absolutely astonished that you would even suggest it.

Putting all that temporarily aside, there's no guarantee Kara (was it Kara or tiam?) is even Miura or Takeda. Could be a bluff.

But in the theoretical situation in which he IS part of one of those two groups, your play is absolutely horrible unless one of of three things is true.

1. You are a member of the Ashikaga clan.
2. You are a member of the Fujiwari clan.
3. You have some kind of information that I don't. This is always a possibility, but I am going to discount it for the sake of my sanity.

I was suggesting that at this point in the game, that doesn't make much sense, especially since we've had an alliance early on that had a majority, maybe the winning conditions differ from alliance to alliance but it just seems unlikely unless it is end game and even then, one group is going to want to win over the other so I don't see that as being a viable winning condition.

I wasn't suggesting that, I was trying to understand why anyone outside of that alliance would suggest such a thing and came to the conclusion but it does seem more like the way a member of the alliance would vote.

I don't think there is anything ridiculous about doubting the word of karatallid, I am more inclined to believe him in all honesty but i'm not going to cast aside all suspicion.

[Shadow]

You know what, you're absolutely right. I can't believe i didnt catch that.

I badly need a reread.

I still stand by lynching the Miura, though. For obvious reason.

[Omtose]

Fener, on 30 January 2012 - 09:05 PM, said:

To put it another way, you are safe from attacks directed at you by members of the faction you're allied with. Thus, alliances = less chance of death for your faction members (and ditto for the other faction involved)

Opinions?

This seems like a much more likely function of alliances, and there must have been something to increase the number of successful NKs so dramatically, it would make sense considering the alliances that were in place and the clans that were targeted as well, it would also explain why alliances can so easily change and not seem to depend on numbers sticking together for a majority, which as I said I think would be flawed.

[Fener]

Shadow, on 30 January 2012 - 09:11 PM, said:

You know what, you're absolutely right. I can't believe i didnt catch that.

I badly need a reread.

I still stand by lynching the Miura, though. For obvious reason.

There's no point in lynching Karatallid, I agree. If nothing else, someone is likely to decide that he will make an easy NK target now.

[Tiamatha]

Wow, I've been gone forever but it seems like only minutes have passed. Tonight shall be the night of nights where I'll actually participate....

[Fener]

So....where's this participation then Tiam?

As someone else said already, I'd like to hear from everyone before we get down to the voting. Although I have no reservations about a Tulas lynch, can we say he's even the most powerful left in his faction?

Everyone by now surely must have some idea/guess on who's in what faction. Shadow, as someone who's presumably not Uesugi (I say this because you were the first to pick out people for an Uesugi culture hunt), who do you reckon their remaining members are out of us 11?

Trying to get some talk going here - I keep seeing up to 8 anonymous people viewing the thread, but no one is posting.

[Shadow]

Phone's about to die. I can't be sure of any team guesses until I reread. I completely fucked up the Uesugi suspicion early on, anyway. Unless Tulas turned out to be one.. i'd be pissed. okay dying be here later!

[Omtose]

I am unsure, a couple of the connections i've guessed at have turned out not to be there and one of two I didn't see as strikingly obvious like the GL/Atrahal link.

I am looking over a couple of notes at the moment and re-checking the thread. I am inclined to believe Karatallid actually right at this moment.

[Kessobahn]

Sorry I haven't been around, work is taking 110% of my time & attention

Normally by this time I'd have a list of who I thought was in what faction, but haven't been able todo that that for this game. I'd like to see the minimized faction go, if we can be sure of the identity of that person. On the other hand, TS has been in the common eye all game and still manages to slide past, suggesting there's some help out there for him.

At this point I'm ok with voting TS or Kara, because I don't believe they're on my team.

[Path-Shaper]

Forgot poor Liosan's lynch scene. You can find it easily here.

http://forum.malazan...ndpost&p=925697

[Fener]

Path-Shaper, on 31 January 2012 - 02:14 AM, said:

Forgot poor Liosan's lynch scene. You can find it easily here.

http://forum.malazan...ndpost&p=925697

I likes it

Fener - burning the midnight oil.