[Shadow]

I'm a simple "retainer" and I can tell you that I don't have shit to do at night. I wouldn't rely on anyone besides the general of Uesugi being able to save the nonalliance at night.

Tulas, who do you think is alliance? We have almost a 50% chance of hitting one.

[Tulas Shorn]

Where the killers are trying to find the other killers among the known sides.

[Fener]

By the way, it's just come to me that the faction that would have by far the most to gain from the weakening of the Fuji-Ashi alliance is the Uesugi.......somehow that puts your promotion of another alliance in another light. Not that it's not still intriguing.

This post has been edited by Fener: 31 January 2012 - 03:25 AM

[Fener]

Tulas Shorn, on 31 January 2012 - 03:23 AM, said:

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 03:20 AM, said:

Tulas Shorn, on 31 January 2012 - 03:17 AM, said:

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 03:15 AM, said:

Tulas Shorn, on 31 January 2012 - 03:10 AM, said:

Really I would not be surprised to see if there is a alliance at the end that they split the lands and spoils. After all that is something that would have happened in real Japan during the period. If that is the case (I have asked PS and the miserable bastard that he is he won't say one way or the other) then a wrong lynch today with alliance members protected from killing off each other will lead to them being able to reveal who they are tomorrow and either send the game to night until the alliance members are the only ones left or lynching the remaining non-alliance members.

It's not quite as bad as you make it sound there. It's not unreasonable to presume the other factions, or at least Takeda and Uesugi, still have within their ranks people with an NK ability - if the Ashi and Fuji reveal then they'll know exactly who to target. Then it becomes a question of who manages to take out the opposing side's killers first.

That would be a lot easier for those killers to take out one of the other sides if the alliance wasn't protecting both of the A and F factions from each other's NKs.

I don't understand - the alliance doesn't stop other NKs going through. The fact that Fuji and Ashi can't NK each other doesn't really affect anything - especially in your scenario where they've revealed and all know each other.

Yes but I am thinking that if there is no more alliance then they can't share some kind of victory thus there will no longer be any need for them to keep each other around either. Basically a free for all.

I do like the idea of a free for all

[Tulas Shorn]

Shadow, on 31 January 2012 - 03:24 AM, said:

I'm a simple "retainer" and I can tell you that I don't have shit to do at night. I wouldn't rely on anyone besides the general of Uesugi being able to save the nonalliance at night.

Tulas, who do you think is alliance? We have almost a 50% chance of hitting one.

I still think that the leaders have double votes so that is why I was looking at the trains trying to figure out who was on them. As for the other members of the alliance there are 2 many unknown players.

[Tulas Shorn]

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 03:26 AM, said:

Tulas Shorn, on 31 January 2012 - 03:23 AM, said:

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 03:20 AM, said:

Tulas Shorn, on 31 January 2012 - 03:17 AM, said:

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 03:15 AM, said:

Tulas Shorn, on 31 January 2012 - 03:10 AM, said:

Really I would not be surprised to see if there is a alliance at the end that they split the lands and spoils. After all that is something that would have happened in real Japan during the period. If that is the case (I have asked PS and the miserable bastard that he is he won't say one way or the other) then a wrong lynch today with alliance members protected from killing off each other will lead to them being able to reveal who they are tomorrow and either send the game to night until the alliance members are the only ones left or lynching the remaining non-alliance members.

It's not quite as bad as you make it sound there. It's not unreasonable to presume the other factions, or at least Takeda and Uesugi, still have within their ranks people with an NK ability - if the Ashi and Fuji reveal then they'll know exactly who to target. Then it becomes a question of who manages to take out the opposing side's killers first.

That would be a lot easier for those killers to take out one of the other sides if the alliance wasn't protecting both of the A and F factions from each other's NKs.

I don't understand - the alliance doesn't stop other NKs going through. The fact that Fuji and Ashi can't NK each other doesn't really affect anything - especially in your scenario where they've revealed and all know each other.

Yes but I am thinking that if there is no more alliance then they can't share some kind of victory thus there will no longer be any need for them to keep each other around either. Basically a free for all.

I do like the idea of a free for all

I love me a high body count game, and a hands off killer free for all is just that.

[Shadow]

It's pretty clear to me who people are if it;s true that they AREN'T alliance. Of course, I can't take people's word.

To reiterate, I'd love to hear both of your opinion's on who is most likely to be alliance.

[Shadow]

Tulas Shorn, on 31 January 2012 - 03:28 AM, said:

Shadow, on 31 January 2012 - 03:24 AM, said:

I'm a simple "retainer" and I can tell you that I don't have shit to do at night. I wouldn't rely on anyone besides the general of Uesugi being able to save the nonalliance at night.

Tulas, who do you think is alliance? We have almost a 50% chance of hitting one.

I still think that the leaders have double votes so that is why I was looking at the trains trying to figure out who was on them. As for the other members of the alliance there are 2 many unknown players.

I agree. It might end up being a shot in the dark.. but who would you pick if you had to pick one?

I'm thinking Shelly. He suggested lynching Kara, even though he revealed Miura and is basically a no-threat. No one counter-revealed Miura..

Thoughts on Shelly? Oh, and don't try to find the leaders like that, waste of your time. I can't share what I know about that until the alliance is broken. (It doesn't help us here anyway)

[Fener]

As I said before, I do have some ideas about who's in what faction. Kara's reveal already put a spanner in the works though and now I don't trust my guesses half as much as I previously did. In general, I had trouble deciding if someone was definitely in Fuji or Ashi, but I have a few suspects who I'm reasonably confident are in one of those two factions, such as well, you Shadow, and Omtose.

[Fener]

Shadow, on 31 January 2012 - 03:35 AM, said:

Tulas Shorn, on 31 January 2012 - 03:28 AM, said:

Shadow, on 31 January 2012 - 03:24 AM, said:

I'm a simple "retainer" and I can tell you that I don't have shit to do at night. I wouldn't rely on anyone besides the general of Uesugi being able to save the nonalliance at night.

Tulas, who do you think is alliance? We have almost a 50% chance of hitting one.

I still think that the leaders have double votes so that is why I was looking at the trains trying to figure out who was on them. As for the other members of the alliance there are 2 many unknown players.

I agree. It might end up being a shot in the dark.. but who would you pick if you had to pick one?

I'm thinking Shelly. He suggested lynching Kara, even though he revealed Miura and is basically a no-threat. No one counter-revealed Miura..

Thoughts on Shelly? Oh, and don't try to find the leaders like that, waste of your time. I can't share what I know about that until the alliance is broken. (It doesn't help us here anyway)

Shelly I'd pegged as Takeda with Fuji or Ashi in the 'maybe' column in my notes. So fuck knows.

[Tulas Shorn]

Shadow, on 31 January 2012 - 03:35 AM, said:

Tulas Shorn, on 31 January 2012 - 03:28 AM, said:

Shadow, on 31 January 2012 - 03:24 AM, said:

I'm a simple "retainer" and I can tell you that I don't have shit to do at night. I wouldn't rely on anyone besides the general of Uesugi being able to save the nonalliance at night.

Tulas, who do you think is alliance? We have almost a 50% chance of hitting one.

I still think that the leaders have double votes so that is why I was looking at the trains trying to figure out who was on them. As for the other members of the alliance there are 2 many unknown players.

I agree. It might end up being a shot in the dark.. but who would you pick if you had to pick one?

I'm thinking Shelly. He suggested lynching Kara, even though he revealed Miura and is basically a no-threat. No one counter-revealed Miura..

Thoughts on Shelly? Oh, and don't try to find the leaders like that, waste of your time. I can't share what I know about that until the alliance is broken. (It doesn't help us here anyway)

I could peg shelly as any of the same that Fener thought. I think that Olar might be alliance.

[Fener]

What about Korlat as a low-posting leader? I know this isn't exactly kosher reasoning, but it might explain why night always took so long to resolve if they weren't around all that much.

[Tulas Shorn]

Sheltatha Lore, on 30 January 2012 - 03:44 PM, said:

I think Shadow puts too much stock in the Alliances.

I have no clue how they work, but all I know is that after night 1, the Open Alliances information was telling us that it was 10 vs 8, and I didn't see anyone win/lose right after that.

Of course this is a slightly incriminating post. I seriously doubt that anyone would have considered revealing alliances after 1 day and night.

[Tulas Shorn]

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 03:40 AM, said:

What about Korlat as a low-posting leader? I know this isn't exactly kosher reasoning, but it might explain why night always took so long to resolve if they weren't around all that much.

The same can be said for Tiam. That is why I dislike low posters. Can't ever get a read on them.

[Tulas Shorn]

Korlat, on 30 January 2012 - 10:55 AM, said:

I know I haven't been around much RL issues. I'll be around more, prefer not to be lynched by my own team though.

Aside from myself and Tiam, Omtose is another who's been rather quiet.

See absolutely nothing to go off of.

[Tulas Shorn]

What do you guys think of Olar?

[Fener]

A little too much on the undead side for me....

Oh you mean as alliance right? Honestly, I thought they were in the same faction as you Tulas - but you appear not to know about that.

[Tulas Shorn]

I could vote Shelly. Mainly because he seems to come on strong for a Kara lynch. Whom he believes is M. While I am not sure mainly because so many people haven't yet posted.

[Fener]

Christ, day 4 and none of us knows anything concrete it seems.

[Tulas Shorn]

Fener, on 31 January 2012 - 03:45 AM, said:

A little too much on the undead side for me....

Oh you mean as alliance right? Honestly, I thought they were in the same faction as you Tulas - but you appear not to know about that.

I actually thought that you were in my faction.