[Korbas]

I was around for a lot of the day but damned if I'll post during night. I've got a few minutes and just wanted to make a comment.

Serc, on 14 September 2011 - 12:26 AM, said:

Kessobahn, on 13 September 2011 - 11:30 PM, said:

I've got a few minutes before I'm out the door. My top three canidates for roled players are Tellan, Alkend and Serc.

Tellan really pinged my radar with how easily he jumped on the Kalse train regarding a failed understanding of the FM mechanic when it was clearly stated how it works in the OP. This was clearly right after Tellan was bragging up that he was right over Tennes regarding the town winning conditions aspect that was much easier to get wrong. It doesn't seem likely that someone could be so spot on a concept that seems more difficult to grasp but total whiff on something that was so clearly stated. It looks like to me he was following Alkend after Alkend placed a vote on Kalse. That leads me to believe that Alkend may be a finder and Tellan could be the leader of one side or the other.

Serc joins my list because of this

Serc, on 12 September 2011 - 10:40 PM, said:

Telas, on 12 September 2011 - 10:36 PM, said:

Tellan, on 12 September 2011 - 10:27 PM, said:

And Telas, since you're here, care to elaborate on those "pings." You critiqued several theories as weak and unsubstantiated, but did not give us anything to go off of. Tearing apart cases is a lot easier than trying to reason through building one.

The two main players I feel uneasy about are Thyrllian and Tennes, I think that while int his regard Tennes had a point, while we all want to make sure we have out winning conditions and have something to work towards as soon as we can there is also a more longterm game to think about as well and this kind of attitude does not help with that but then again I come into conflict with the whole a vote is better than no vote/no lynch argument.

With tennes I just feel that his reaction to thyrillian's vote was rather extreme and unhelpful, maybe slightly panicky, maybe a bold bluff on his part in the hopes of deflecting a possible train away from himself.

I actually agree with you about both of them.

However, it would be more in our interest to lynch someone who is contributing little. Even a roled player (especially one that doesn't know their team) can help us with cases.

The last line makes it seem that he is very against hitting a roled player. Why would he be against that if he isn't a roled player himself and is afraid of hitting his own team?

I'm gone for a while. Don't push a lynch through with half the day to go folks. I would like to get on a successful lynch for once.

I wasn't saying that I was against hitting a roled player, I was saying I'd rather hit a roled player who was a low poster, of which Kalse seemed to be (and was).

Your first post definitely sounded like you think it's not a big deal if we lynch a townie. Your explanation is good but I think the first post reads pretty clearly. Hiding behind the lynch is pretty good deflection too... it's possible you knew he was roled and set up a few comments you could point back to after he was lynched. Also I found this quote:

Serc, on 13 September 2011 - 12:26 AM, said:

Tennes, on 13 September 2011 - 12:20 AM, said:

Remove vote

Vote Serc

Sigh. I don't think you're a bad player, Tennes. If you're roled, you have me fooled. You just seemed like a concerned (unnecessarily dramatic) townie.

You're barking up the wrong tree.

So here is another strangely accurate comment... I also have to repost that first quote:

Serc, on 14 September 2011 - 12:26 AM, said:

Kessobahn, on 13 September 2011 - 11:30 PM, said:

I've got a few minutes before I'm out the door. My top three canidates for roled players are Tellan, Alkend and Serc.

Tellan really pinged my radar with how easily he jumped on the Kalse train regarding a failed understanding of the FM mechanic when it was clearly stated how it works in the OP. This was clearly right after Tellan was bragging up that he was right over Tennes regarding the town winning conditions aspect that was much easier to get wrong. It doesn't seem likely that someone could be so spot on a concept that seems more difficult to grasp but total whiff on something that was so clearly stated. It looks like to me he was following Alkend after Alkend placed a vote on Kalse. That leads me to believe that Alkend may be a finder and Tellan could be the leader of one side or the other.

Serc joins my list because of this

Serc, on 12 September 2011 - 10:40 PM, said:

Telas, on 12 September 2011 - 10:36 PM, said:

Tellan, on 12 September 2011 - 10:27 PM, said:

And Telas, since you're here, care to elaborate on those "pings." You critiqued several theories as weak and unsubstantiated, but did not give us anything to go off of. Tearing apart cases is a lot easier than trying to reason through building one.

The two main players I feel uneasy about are Thyrllian and Tennes, I think that while int his regard Tennes had a point, while we all want to make sure we have out winning conditions and have something to work towards as soon as we can there is also a more longterm game to think about as well and this kind of attitude does not help with that but then again I come into conflict with the whole a vote is better than no vote/no lynch argument.

With tennes I just feel that his reaction to thyrillian's vote was rather extreme and unhelpful, maybe slightly panicky, maybe a bold bluff on his part in the hopes of deflecting a possible train away from himself.

I actually agree with you about both of them.

However, it would be more in our interest to lynch someone who is contributing little. Even a roled player (especially one that doesn't know their team) can help us with cases.

The last line makes it seem that he is very against hitting a roled player. Why would he be against that if he isn't a roled player himself and is afraid of hitting his own team?

I'm gone for a while. Don't push a lynch through with half the day to go folks. I would like to get on a successful lynch for once.

I wasn't saying that I was against hitting a roled player, I was saying I'd rather hit a roled player who was a low poster, of which Kalse seemed to be (and was).

Telas points out Thyrllan and Tennes are his top suspects, Serc agrees with him, then they both end up dead. I'm just seeing a lot of connections between Serc and dead people.

Oh, I also wanted to add that it's possible that one of the don's lost a BP on the first night if one of the deaths was an FM jump. Pretty easy to hide with so many players alive right now.

[Korbas]

Serc, on 14 September 2011 - 12:22 AM, said:

Tellan, on 13 September 2011 - 11:21 PM, said:

I also think it is interesting that the two people NK'ed were top level suspects from yesterday. Makes me wonder if we can reason out who was their killer by looking at how people interacted with Tennes (kind of hard, he was universally hated) or Thyr (a little easier, there was a small population of people exceptionally suspicious of him). I am just getting these thoughts out there right now. I'm going to look back and see if there are any interactions I can point out.

The most obvious thing a killer can do is lynch someone who has argued with people. That way, the killer will seem to be one of those people.

Interesting typo; "lynch" instead of "kill" or "NK".

Also fits with the hiding-in-plain-sight tactic, making comments that a roled player normally would not make about his own actions so that he appears innocent.

[Tulas Shorn]

The joy of being on during the day. The last few posts have been very interesting, but without voting you all seem to be hedging your bets a bit. The case on serc looks to me to be fairly solid, theres definite interaction with the dead players and the strange typo about what a killer would do is suspicious. As usual though i will not be around toward the end of day, and because i have managed to almost miss every day so far because they are so short I am not going to waste time without putting a vote down.

vote serc

There have been plenty of posts from them the last couple of days which seemed to imply an allegiance already. The cavalier attitude toward lynches of town players and the post above where they call tennes an over zealous townie make me think they are roled. If that is a signal to telas then he would be either don, consiglore or killer. A successful cf of fbi or outfit would give us our next lynch too.

[Korlat]

Serc, on 14 September 2011 - 12:22 AM, said:

Tellan, on 13 September 2011 - 11:21 PM, said:

I also think it is interesting that the two people NK'ed were top level suspects from yesterday. Makes me wonder if we can reason out who was their killer by looking at how people interacted with Tennes (kind of hard, he was universally hated) or Thyr (a little easier, there was a small population of people exceptionally suspicious of him). I am just getting these thoughts out there right now. I'm going to look back and see if there are any interactions I can point out.

The most obvious thing a killer can do is lynch someone who has argued with people. That way, the killer will seem to be one of those people.

yip ...wifom heaven

[Korlat]

This Serc case is interesting.

His seeming conviction that Tennes was going to turn up inno is something that struck me as quite strange if coming from a supposed townie.
Then his quote about lynching a low poster and "even if its a roled player" does smack of him letting slip that a roled player is more of an after thought, or of lesser importance.

That coupled with him substituting "NK" with "lynch"...i dunno...could be a genuine slip or it could be a "forced" slip in an attempted to portray some kind of towny Freudian mistake.

Each thing by itself seems rather innocent but when you look at it all together it seems like a rather decent case and the "mistake" starts looking more and more like it was manufactured.

I would like to actually be on a lynch train this time round so i will add to the pressure here immediately.


Vote Serc.


edit - messed up sentence made little sense

This post has been edited by Korlat: 14 September 2011 - 08:01 AM

[Silanah]

Tellan, on 14 September 2011 - 12:08 AM, said:

You know, you beat me to the punch Kesso. I was actually looking up information on you just as you were posting your accusation of me. The reason I was digging concerned both your and Silanah's vote on one of our latest NK victims, Thyr. Now, while several people expressed suspicion of Thyr, only two people actually voted for him (er, her) in very close succession. First of all, I am now looking into potential connections between people's post and looking for our two roled night killers. Since I still think that people by habit tend to talk a lot about their own roles in threads, I give to you some quotes about killers from our very own Silanah and Kesso.

Silanah, on 09 September 2011 - 03:18 PM, said:

you think it too obvious for a killer to make that statement?

Kessobahn, on 09 September 2011 - 03:23 PM, said:

I think it is highly unlikely that a killer would do that. It would be incredibly stupid for one. Why draw attention to yourself. Any smart killer would not want to do that.

Silanah, on 09 September 2011 - 03:28 PM, said:

a bold and brazen killer would do it to easily dismiss the case against him

a new guy would do it by mistake

another guy would do it just to be too obvious therefore getting you to dismiss him as a potential killer (which you have just done by saying it incredibly stupid)

so yeah there are reasons one would do this.

To put it in context, these comments were made in the debate over whether the "gun" comment was signaling or if that was just a red herring. The argument centered around whether or not a killer would be so blatant as to make such an obvious comment. Kesso thinks the killer would want to avoid attention and Silanah thinks it could go either way and suspicion needed to be maintained and dismissal avoided.

Yesterday, these were the reasonings given behind their vote for Thyr:

Kessobahn, on 12 September 2011 - 08:35 PM, said:

So I've been doing a re-read but I'm not getting much of a read off of anyone. So many people are trying to come off as town that I can't separtate the ones that are lying from the ones that are legit. So I've been thinking how else can I possibly track down someone to be a lynch target? Let's look at the lynch train. With the mechanic in place for town to have to vote out either FBI or Outfit to have a shot at winning. Barring successful lynches, voting history would be looked at to help determine what is town's winning conditon. It would be very stuipid to not vote for anyone at all before the end of the day period. Town would know this much more so that either of the other groups of players So knowing this the people not voting are much more likely to be either FBI or Outfit.

Who are these people that were foolish enough not to vote at all? Well they are Atrahal, Sorrit, Thyrllan or myself. I was in this unfortunate position becasuse I was on early in Day 1 and thoguht I would be back on with hours to go before Day timed out. Alas this was not the case. Sorrit is dead by lynch. With him not voting and yet he CF'd as FBI further puts weight on the fact that those not voting at all should be highly suspect. That leaves us with Atrahal and Thyrllan.

Now going back and looking at both of their posts they have since voted for someone on day two. Atrahal has done nothing but post fluff. Thyrllan has barely posted anything until he started a train on Tennes today. Of the two I beileve that Thyrllan has done more lurking thus he is likely to be a killer so I am leaning towards

Vote Thyrllan

Here is the voting infomation from the day 1 lynch.

1 Vote for Kessobahn ( Ampelas )
11 Votes for Sorrit ( Shadow, Serc, Korabas, Tennes, Korlat, Tulas Shorn, Telas, Tellan, Tiamatha, Silanah, Anthras )
2 Votes for Korbas ( Karosis, Anomandaris )
1 Vote for Anomandaris ( Korbas )
1 Vote for Tennes ( Kalse )
1 Vote for Silanah ( Alkend )

Players not voted: Atrahal, Kessobahn, Sorrit, Thyrllan

Kesso here acknowledges that he is on the short list of people who failed to vote on Day one, and explains why he was too busy to make it back in time for the lynch. Now the thing that gets my goat, so to speak, about this post is the post is almost a carbon copy of what myself and Korbas had posted not over one page before in discussing the voting and night conversation patterns of other players. I did call out Kesso, but he failed to respond to my accusation (see red text highlighted below) of taking other's reasoning and making it look like his own.

Silanah, on 12 September 2011 - 09:42 PM, said:

telas, tellan and tennes. korabas and korbas i think my head will explode in a minute, i keep mixing them up. i thought i had something on tennes? earlier on regarding the removal of the vote and catching him in a lie but i lost it, although as people would know i hate people self voting, it makes me want to vote them off just for doing that. i'm reading through the thread and would like to hear more from shadow, he started the lynch train on sorrit/fbi yesterday and maybe he can do the same thing today, unless he is smarting because he started a train on his own team. there are a few people out there that are deciding to have a low post count/stay of the radar but as we saw from last night it doesn't work. i'd like the lower posters to engage in more activity so that we can get a better feel for the players and their alignments. otherwise it turns out to be the ones that are making the posts to be the ones singled out and votes placed against them. i have a fair indication who i want to vote for today (thyrllan) but i want to hear a little more of what he has to say on the game and players so far.

Silanah, on 12 September 2011 - 09:48 PM, said:

Tennes, on 12 September 2011 - 09:39 PM, said:

Tellan, on 12 September 2011 - 09:25 PM, said:

Tennes, on 12 September 2011 - 09:18 PM, said:

Tellan, on 12 September 2011 - 09:10 PM, said:

I leave for what, 5-6 hours, after presenting quite a few thoughts on game mechanics and potential scenarios and all I come back to is a self vote and a flattering, but still, copy cat rendition of my cases concerning the no vote people of Day 1? Really? Ok, I will have some more thoughts in a sec, but am I making my comments to long, too dense, too many big words?

If you didn't pad them out with stating the obvious about mechanics that'd be nice too.

Fun fact, there are six people who have 2 or fewer posts more than sorrit.

Fun fact, there are some people who spend more time arguing for the same point with a lot of posts without actually saying that much about their own suspicions and thoughts.

You say I'm arguing the same point, and not naming my suspicions, but there's a reason for that. The point I argue is that we're letting people away with contributing nothing, and if no one has posted anything of substance it's pretty hard to find any individual more suspicious than another. Town is shooting itself in the foot by laying low and thus letting the roled players do exactly the same, giving them a place to hide among a lot of people playing similarly.

You'll note I do actually put my thoughts on thread as well, for example speculating about Anthras' relations with others, but even that is pretty hard because no one was posting very much so there is much interaction to look at.

Am I making myself unreadable by putting up so little?

as you can see from my previous post i agree with what you are saying here, i'm not saying we should solely have a look at the low posters but by being a low poster they are more harmful to town, with this in mind i'm going to

vote thyrllan

i'm going to bed now and will be on most of tomorrow, he is the lowest poster out of everyone left alive, although it was hard not to pick korlat as i didn't even realise she was playing

Silanah is harder for me to read. He goes for the low poster route, and while he has several suspects in his pool, he chooses Thyrllan, which might have been innocuous if not for the fact he was the second person building a case on Thyr, namely starting a nudge toward a lynch train. Now this is a weak case in and of itself, but why then does he shift his vote to Atrahal when there were already 9/10 votes for Kalse. I mean he does vote for Kalse (as the hammer) a little while later, but this also seems like a "I guess I won't change any minds so better look like a team player."

Now I realize this is putting words in Silanah's mouth, and I would love to hear his thoughts on why he kept switching votes all over the place, especially if he was a townie needing to lynch at least one more roled player to get win conditions. But, I'd say that Silanah isn't entirely town in his behavior.

firstly, i voted for thryllan to get him/her to speak more, same goes for any low poster hunt, i wanted to put pressure that way so that we get more content from thyr. i switched my vote to atrahal cause i thought he'd slipped up in saying he had different win conditions than most people, i thought and actually still think he could be the fm who may have different win conditions than town/outfit/fbi. why even announce this? i later switched my vote to kalse because i noticed he was at l1 and i wanted to be on the treain, if i left my vote then someone else would have hammered.



as it stands i want to vote and i don't want to vote.

i don't want to vote because then i am committed to a team and have to play for that team. yet i do want to vote so i have my win conditions and then know what i am doing. in a lot of ways i am happy some town got killed last night. i have been thinking about this a lot and say i commit to a team by lynching a faction member today and i join that team then a lot of the other town who have not committed themselves could lynch me and therefore be on the opposing team making my team weaker.


i see your points about kesso though, at the moment i would not want to be linked to anyone. the thing is, you are doing a pretty good job of clotting up the thread with massive posts, this is all well and good but i think you are barking up the wrong tree.

as a final point, if atrahal was the fm or was roled then there were people who deflected from my accusations against atrahal without atrahal doing so himself. atrahal would be a good lynch candidate for me today if i decide i want to vote.

[Korlat]

Korbas, on 14 September 2011 - 06:34 AM, said:

Telas points out Thyrllan and Tennes are his top suspects, Serc agrees with him, then they both end up dead. I'm just seeing a lot of connections between Serc and dead people.

Oh, I also wanted to add that it's possible that one of the don's lost a BP on the first night if one of the deaths was an FM jump. Pretty easy to hide with so many players alive right now.

The team killer...he doesn't know who his own team is correct?

Another thing to consider is that perhaps this was some kind of signal between boss and team killer.


but again...i dont like using night kills as its all just one massive pointless wifom fest and you end up wasting time debating its merits when it actually has none.

[Silanah]

Telas, on 14 September 2011 - 05:47 AM, said:

I'm quite surprised that they both turned out to be town, I think Tellan you make a good point about a killer NK someone who seems to have drawn a lot of heat, it is a good way for less suspicion to fall on themselves and that discussion from back on day 1 is interesting to read in this new light. I need to re-read a few pages now since the two players I felt most suspicious of have gone, see if there is anything i've overlooked.

I will say that at just a glance however Silanah's voting struck me as very suspicious, that vote on atrahal seemed like a last minute attempt at a derailment and the quick switch an attempt to seem town by being in on the train.

derailment? if you look at the times of my posting you can see that i was away for a lot of the voting phase, catching up i voted for atrahal based on the "different winning conditions post". when i reach the end and saw that there were 9 votes on kalse then as i explained in my previous post i wanted to be on the train.

[Silanah]

i am not yet decided if i want to vote today, if i do decide to vote then serc is a good choice from the previous few posts, it does highlight that he "knows" something we don't and although someone was calling him middle ground yesterday this pushes him a lot higher on my list today, i would say that atrahal is another person people should look at, in fact i'll go through his posts today and see if i find anything other than that post.

[Tulas Shorn]

why wouldnt you vote? If a good number of us manage to become members of a faction we will have the majority and be able to simply remove the other faction giving the remaing town members the chance to lynch off the second faction and join up too.

[Silanah]

Tulas Shorn, on 14 September 2011 - 08:55 AM, said:

why wouldnt you vote? If a good number of us manage to become members of a faction we will have the majority and be able to simply remove the other faction giving the remaing town members the chance to lynch off the second faction and join up too.

where you on both trains? say you weren't on the first but you were on the second then that would make you favour one team over the other wouldn't it?

i need the lynch trains to look at as well.

Quote

11 Votes for Sorrit ( Shadow, Serc, Korabas, Tennes, Korlat, Tulas Shorn, Telas, Tellan, Tiamatha, Silanah, Anthras )


Players not voted: Atrahal, Kessobahn, Sorrit, Thyrllan

Quote

10 Votes for Kalse ( Alkend, Tellan, Karosis, Telas, Anomandaris, Serc, Tennes, Atrahal, Korbas, Silanah)

[Korlat]

Tulas Shorn, on 14 September 2011 - 08:55 AM, said:

why wouldnt you vote? If a good number of us manage to become members of a faction we will have the majority and be able to simply remove the other faction giving the remaing town members the chance to lynch off the second faction and join up too.

he has a fair point though.

if he has options then he can pick and choose at his own discretion....what if he ends up on the team with the least members and by your very own acknowledgement you would then lynch him off because you know he is in the smaller faction.


remember once someone has been on 2 successful lynch trains for a certain faction...everyone will know what faction they are supposed to be rooting for if they are town.

It becomes a little tricky from then on.

[Silanah]

Silanah, on 14 September 2011 - 09:06 AM, said:

Tulas Shorn, on 14 September 2011 - 08:55 AM, said:

why wouldnt you vote? If a good number of us manage to become members of a faction we will have the majority and be able to simply remove the other faction giving the remaing town members the chance to lynch off the second faction and join up too.

where you on both trains? say you weren't on the first but you were on the second then that would make you favour one team over the other wouldn't it?

i need the lynch trains to look at as well.

Quote

11 Votes for Sorrit ( Shadow, Serc, Korabas, Tennes, Korlat, Tulas Shorn, Telas, Tellan, Tiamatha, Silanah, Anthras )


Players not voted: Atrahal, Kessobahn, Sorrit, Thyrllan

Quote

10 Votes for Kalse ( Alkend, Tellan, Karosis, Telas, Anomandaris, Serc, Tennes, Atrahal, Korbas, Silanah)

sorry about this, i'm in work and wanted to save it before i lost it.


telas and serc are the only two players other than me who have been on both trains. so if we did vote we commit leaving the rest of town to decide where they want to vote and what team to make stronger.

[Korlat]

Silanah, on 14 September 2011 - 09:06 AM, said:

Tulas Shorn, on 14 September 2011 - 08:55 AM, said:

why wouldnt you vote? If a good number of us manage to become members of a faction we will have the majority and be able to simply remove the other faction giving the remaing town members the chance to lynch off the second faction and join up too.

where you on both trains? say you weren't on the first but you were on the second then that would make you favour one team over the other wouldn't it?

Not really...ive been having a good old fashion think on this.

and i think that as much as i would like to get set and have my CF set ASAP...well... its becoming clear to me that its also a pretty damn good thing for a townie to have is options open right now. At least untill there is a more clear advantage for either of the teams.

So if you where on both trains then you are sitting pretty and have the luxury of waiting and not have to vote this time round and see how night plays out.
And then just follow the majority team the next day.

If you where only on one train, you might want to actually consider getting a lynch on the opposite faction to even it out to, again, keep your options open in order to eventually get on the bigger team.

If someone ends up having a team right now, you are at the mercy of the NK's and you might end up with a weaker team and get piled on the next day..
As it stands the two factions are pretty much dead even, depending on what roles have been killed.

its tricky right now.

If a FBI was lynched yesterday then Outfit would have had a decent numbers lead and i reckon everyone would have carried on looking for more FBI lynches in order to be on that side.

but now...its a bit of a wait and see game i think.

[Tulas Shorn]

Ahh, now i get it. If you are committed before everyone else you run the risk of getting nk'ed by the opposition or ending up on the wrong side if the next lynch is for the other team.

Good thinking batman!

[Telas]

Korlat, on 14 September 2011 - 09:20 AM, said:

Silanah, on 14 September 2011 - 09:06 AM, said:

Tulas Shorn, on 14 September 2011 - 08:55 AM, said:

why wouldnt you vote? If a good number of us manage to become members of a faction we will have the majority and be able to simply remove the other faction giving the remaing town members the chance to lynch off the second faction and join up too.

where you on both trains? say you weren't on the first but you were on the second then that would make you favour one team over the other wouldn't it?

Not really...ive been having a good old fashion think on this.

and i think that as much as i would like to get set and have my CF set ASAP...well... its becoming clear to me that its also a pretty damn good thing for a townie to have is options open right now. At least untill there is a more clear advantage for either of the teams.

So if you where on both trains then you are sitting pretty and have the luxury of waiting and not have to vote this time round and see how night plays out.
And then just follow the majority team the next day.

If you where only on one train, you might want to actually consider getting a lynch on the opposite faction to even it out to, again, keep your options open in order to eventually get on the bigger team.

If someone ends up having a team right now, you are at the mercy of the NK's and you might end up with a weaker team and get piled on the next day..
As it stands the two factions are pretty much dead even, depending on what roles have been killed.

its tricky right now.

If a FBI was lynched yesterday then Outfit would have had a decent numbers lead and i reckon everyone would have carried on looking for more FBI lynches in order to be on that side.

but now...its a bit of a wait and see game i think.

Yeah this is the major problem for me at the moment, coming out on one side or the other after day with the majority of town still to align would make me an obvious target during the night and the next day depending on the lynch outcome and the like.

[Tulas Shorn]

@korlat - but we cant run the risk of not lynching at all or waiting for a confirmed reveal.

[Tulas Shorn]

if only the players with one (or zero) successful lynches vote we should maximise the number of people either with a spread of options or joined to one side.

[Korlat]

Tulas Shorn, on 14 September 2011 - 09:37 AM, said:

@korlat - but we cant run the risk of not lynching at all or waiting for a confirmed reveal.

there is only a few peeps that have the luxury of waiting right now.

thats the few that have been on both trains.


the rest will be voting so i dont think that is an issue right now.

[Korlat]

Tulas Shorn, on 14 September 2011 - 09:25 AM, said:

Ahh, now i get it. If you are committed before everyone else you run the risk of getting nk'ed by the opposition or ending up on the wrong side if the next lynch is for the other team.

Good thinking batman!

bingo!