[Korlat]

Silanah, on 14 September 2011 - 01:45 PM, said:

Tellan, on 14 September 2011 - 01:13 PM, said:

So here is what we have left so far:

FBI: Pretty damn sure: Prosecutor and Cop
Two of the following: FM, Healer, Guard, Finder

Family: Pretty damn sure: Don and Capo
Two of the following: FM, Healer, Guard, Finder

Town: 7 players left, none aligned as of today

Now at this point, unless a guard got lucky, we can assume that the Prosecutor/Don have successfully sent off two PMs, perhaps detailing who's who on their team which could mean most of their team is currently in the know. Should the Moles (finders) have survived lynching, night kills and jumps, the Don/Prosecutor would know the identities of an additional two players by now.

As for which roles are out of the picture, it is hard to say. We didn't see any successful jumps last night which could mean both or one of the FMs are dead, but it also could be that the teams have a good guarding/healing framework in place. Technically, should the healer be present, half their team is safe from both jumps and night deaths (the BP protecting the Don/Prosecutor for the time being unless they are really unlucky).

So after Silanah's statement, perhaps the 4 people on both trains will be left alone by the night killers, since it is advantageous to leave potential recruits alone (I can hope for my own safety's sake...). Also, townies who have been on at least one train are potentially advantageous to leave alone since they are moving in the direction of recruitment (I think if a townie gets aligned in this lynch, they will probably be toast unless they are surrounded by other similar targets). The only player right now not really worth anything to anyone is the person not on either lynch (correct?). It would take two two more days minimum for such a townie to become aligned, which is a long time in light of how fast this day is moving.

I have a proposal then. Firstly, let's continue cutting out the dead wood and cross our fingers that we hit a roled player hiding among those never on a lynch train.

Secondly, as long as the four people on both lynch trains end up on the same lynch train today, we will have relative safety in numbers should we end up with an alignment (there is only one person on the opposing team who can night kill a townie (though once roled can a FM get us too? If someone knows, that is very important...), thus only one of the four of us can be killed, leaving three in support of either the Family or FBI).

Thirdly, if the four of us are on a lynch train, the strength in numbers can cover any of the townies who have been on one lynch train just incase it only takes this second train to give them an alignment.

With this in mind, I am doing this:

Vote Kessoban

since he has never been on a successful lynch train and is suspicious for being a roled player.

just being skeptical at this point in case it goes wrong. what happens if we vote off kess and we become say, outfit, then the other team know that we are outfit so it'd be easier for them to win by voting off 3 outfit or whatever. do you get what i mean?

that was the initial reason behind this entire discussion...

yea you guys shouldn't vote today just yet...well....i wouldn't vote i dont think...I wouldn't want to isolate myself just yet.

but then again...there is no guarantee the rest of us wont end up on your team either so i dont think there will be any mass killing just yet.

Plus, there has to potentially be a big block of people voting with you and they will more likely becoming team mates with you in any case giving you a bigger voting block regardless.

its delicate.... but not as doom and gloom as we think i suppose.

[Tellan]

I agree at this point skepticism is healthy. So here is what I was thinking: let's say that we lynch a roled player and all four of us are on a train with a few other people with single lynch train successes. That means us four (and maybe a couple of others) are aligned, assuming all four of us are town (I haven't given you "friendly" status in my mind, yet). Now that means night comes. We are on a team that includes four roled players and four unroled players against a 3 person team. The 3 person team may or may not have a killer at that point (1/3 successful lynches will be the Capo/Cop. I am not sure what the result of a BP versus a lynch would be...).

Moreover, we will be joining a team with a lot of information gathered over the course of the past two nights. Hopefully the team we join will be able to contact at least one of us through PM while, if they have their finder, confirming our townie status. So at that point in the game, at best, the stratification is:

8 of FBI/Family

versus

3 of Family/FBI

versus

2 undecided townies.

Again, this scenario is only if all four of us are town and the single lynch train townies aren't starting with a leaning toward the opposite team (in which case they will be ambiguous the next day with a lynch train background against each side).

In fact, if the single lynch train townies are successful in gaining an alignment, then the numbers are even more stacked in our favor. This is why I am thinking the way I am...

[Silanah]

okay well i'm willing to go ahead with tellan on this one.



vote kessobahn



if we form a unified front then whatever team we land on we will do our best.

[Serc]

Tellan, on 14 September 2011 - 02:00 PM, said:

I agree at this point skepticism is healthy. So here is what I was thinking: let's say that we lynch a roled player and all four of us are on a train with a few other people with single lynch train successes. That means us four (and maybe a couple of others) are aligned, assuming all four of us are town (I haven't given you "friendly" status in my mind, yet). Now that means night comes. We are on a team that includes four roled players and four unroled players against a 3 person team. The 3 person team may or may not have a killer at that point (1/3 successful lynches will be the Capo/Cop. I am not sure what the result of a BP versus a lynch would be...).

Moreover, we will be joining a team with a lot of information gathered over the course of the past two nights. Hopefully the team we join will be able to contact at least one of us through PM while, if they have their finder, confirming our townie status. So at that point in the game, at best, the stratification is:

8 of FBI/Family

versus

3 of Family/FBI

versus

2 undecided townies.

Again, this scenario is only if all four of us are town and the single lynch train townies aren't starting with a leaning toward the opposite team (in which case they will be ambiguous the next day with a lynch train background against each side).

In fact, if the single lynch train townies are successful in gaining an alignment, then the numbers are even more stacked in our favor. This is why I am thinking the way I am...

The situation doesn't look as dire as I first believed.

Vote Kessobahn

If this works like we hope, we should have a huge advantage.

[Serc]

If kess is town, though, I'm gonna shit.

[Telas]

Tellan, on 14 September 2011 - 02:00 PM, said:

I agree at this point skepticism is healthy. So here is what I was thinking: let's say that we lynch a roled player and all four of us are on a train with a few other people with single lynch train successes. That means us four (and maybe a couple of others) are aligned, assuming all four of us are town (I haven't given you "friendly" status in my mind, yet). Now that means night comes. We are on a team that includes four roled players and four unroled players against a 3 person team. The 3 person team may or may not have a killer at that point (1/3 successful lynches will be the Capo/Cop. I am not sure what the result of a BP versus a lynch would be...).

Moreover, we will be joining a team with a lot of information gathered over the course of the past two nights. Hopefully the team we join will be able to contact at least one of us through PM while, if they have their finder, confirming our townie status. So at that point in the game, at best, the stratification is:

8 of FBI/Family

versus

3 of Family/FBI

versus

2 undecided townies.

Again, this scenario is only if all four of us are town and the single lynch train townies aren't starting with a leaning toward the opposite team (in which case they will be ambiguous the next day with a lynch train background against each side).

In fact, if the single lynch train townies are successful in gaining an alignment, then the numbers are even more stacked in our favor. This is why I am thinking the way I am...

It certainly makes it seem less grim.

I really hope Kessobhan is not town though otherwise it kind of messes it all up but he hasn't said much at all throughout the game.

Vote Kessobahn

[Korlat]

hmmm.


ok


remove vote
vote Kessobahn


all four of you vote for him its a big voting block and you guys will end up dictating this lynch me thinks.
So ill add too the block and go for the enigma that is is kessoh too...

better that than end up missing out on another successful lynch train.

[Silanah]

if kess turned out to be town why would that matter? if anything that improves the rest of town as he cannot change sides later on. it just means we go again tomorrow doesn't it?

[Korlat]

Silanah, on 14 September 2011 - 02:18 PM, said:

if kess turned out to be town why would that matter? if anything that improves the rest of town as he cannot change sides later on. it just means we go again tomorrow doesn't it?

thats right

[Tellan]

Excellent. I feel much better with all four of us (Telas, Silanah, Serc and myself) on the same train. I am afraid I will have to start my day in just a little while, so I will have to depart unfortunately. Just as a heads up, I was looking back through Kessobahn's posts, and we should be expecting to see him in under an hour if his time online is consistent day to day. I will look in a couple more times, just to see if he provides any useful detail (my guess is he's going to sputter and rage), if he arrives while I'm finishing getting read for today. Let me know if there is any thing else to discuss before I go, and I will try to put in more input.

[Telas]

Silanah, on 14 September 2011 - 02:18 PM, said:

if kess turned out to be town why would that matter? if anything that improves the rest of town as he cannot change sides later on. it just means we go again tomorrow doesn't it?

This is true, I hadn't considered it like that, I suppose at this point hitting town doesn't feel right since they could be potential allies but then as you point out the same is true for the reverse as well.

[Korbas]

I think Kessobahn is a good target. If his CF comes back as town, I'm more inclined to think he is a possible don rather than a disinterested townie. This isn't strong logic but if there are really town players who haven't voted at all so far I don't see how they expect to have a chance at winning. The way the win conditions are set up, town players are strongly encouraged to vote, and so roled players are also encouraged to vote to appear as if they are town. No votes by day three makes me think Kesso is roled.

Vote Kessobahn

I'm still suspicious of Serc, though. Even just now he went from "I don't think I'll vote today" to "Now I'm number 2 on the lynch train" in a little over an hour. IGMEOY, Serc.

[Anomandaris]

Serc, on 14 September 2011 - 12:48 PM, said:

Korlat, on 14 September 2011 - 07:58 AM, said:

This Serc case is interesting.

His seeming conviction that Tennes was going to turn up inno is something that struck me as quite strange if coming from a supposed townie.
Then his quote about lynching a low poster and "even if its a roled player" does smack of him letting slip that a roled player is more of an after thought, or of lesser importance.

That coupled with him substituting "NK" with "lynch"...i dunno...could be a genuine slip or it could be a "forced" slip in an attempted to portray some kind of towny Freudian mistake.

Each thing by itself seems rather innocent but when you look at it all together it seems like a rather decent case and the "mistake" starts looking more and more like it was manufactured.

I would like to actually be on a lynch train this time round so i will add to the pressure here immediately.


Vote Serc.


edit - messed up sentence made little sense

I'd like to note that you have Anomandaris level blindness (what happened to Anomandaris, btw?) when it comes to punctuation.

Quote

However, it would be more in our interest to lynch someone who is contributing little. Even a roled player (especially one that doesn't know their team) can help us with cases.

I was implying that a roled player who posts cases instead of drivel is of more use to town than a low posting roled. There is a period there.

Serc, on 14 September 2011 - 01:10 PM, said:

All the quoting was making my scroll bar tiny.

Anyway, my sense of players has been badass so far. I'm actually pretty clueless right now, though.

I really dislike Anomadaris, maybe just because I haven't seen him? and Tiam?

I hate to say it but I'm so damned rusty I'm playing like a noob.

It seems like every time I open my mouth I'm making mistakes, so I have been just keeping my mouth shut and trying to relearn how to play this game right. I'm hoping to not get myself killed before I have a winning condition. .

[Alkend]

Holy cow.. this train is starting fast.. just started my catch-up by skimming this page. be back quick to decide if I want to vote. I have only been on one train, but if Kesso turns out to be outfit, I will have the same win condition as the 4 double guys. I am 90% sure I am willing to take this risk. Especially on someone who hasn't been on either lynch train. brb

[Alkend]

Shit, we are at 6/8



vote Kesso

he hasn't been on either train, and if he comes back outfit, i'll be sitting pretty...if he comes back FBI... well... i'll be sitting OK as I will have been on a successful lynch of both sides.

[Anomandaris]

oh and Vote kessobahn

[Korbas]

A vote count would be nice. Ironically Kesso warned everyone earlier "not to push a lynch through with half a day left."

[Alkend]

I think you are dead Kesso.

[Alkend]

No, I am pretty sure you are dead... though based on your reactions.. I think the CF is gonna come up empty

Path-Shaper, on 14 September 2011 - 11:33 AM, said:

It is Day 3. 11 hours and 29 minutes remaining
15 Players still alive: Alkend, Anomandaris, Atrahal, Karosis, Kessobahn, Korabas, Korbas, Korlat, Serc, Shadow, Silanah, Telas, Tellan, Tiamatha, Tulas Shorn

8 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Serc ( Tulas Shorn, Korlat )

Players not voted: Alkend, Anomandaris, Atrahal, Karosis, Kessobahn, Korabas, Korbas, Serc, Shadow, Silanah, Telas, Tellan, Tiamatha

Tellan, on 14 September 2011 - 01:13 PM, said:

So here is what we have left so far:

FBI: Pretty damn sure: Prosecutor and Cop
Two of the following: FM, Healer, Guard, Finder

Family: Pretty damn sure: Don and Capo
Two of the following: FM, Healer, Guard, Finder

Town: 7 players left, none aligned as of today

Now at this point, unless a guard got lucky, we can assume that the Prosecutor/Don have successfully sent off two PMs, perhaps detailing who's who on their team which could mean most of their team is currently in the know. Should the Moles (finders) have survived lynching, night kills and jumps, the Don/Prosecutor would know the identities of an additional two players by now.

As for which roles are out of the picture, it is hard to say. We didn't see any successful jumps last night which could mean both or one of the FMs are dead, but it also could be that the teams have a good guarding/healing framework in place. Technically, should the healer be present, half their team is safe from both jumps and night deaths (the BP protecting the Don/Prosecutor for the time being unless they are really unlucky).

So after Silanah's statement, perhaps the 4 people on both trains will be left alone by the night killers, since it is advantageous to leave potential recruits alone (I can hope for my own safety's sake...). Also, townies who have been on at least one train are potentially advantageous to leave alone since they are moving in the direction of recruitment (I think if a townie gets aligned in this lynch, they will probably be toast unless they are surrounded by other similar targets). The only player right now not really worth anything to anyone is the person not on either lynch (correct?). It would take two two more days minimum for such a townie to become aligned, which is a long time in light of how fast this day is moving.

I have a proposal then. Firstly, let's continue cutting out the dead wood and cross our fingers that we hit a roled player hiding among those never on a lynch train.

Secondly, as long as the four people on both lynch trains end up on the same lynch train today, we will have relative safety in numbers should we end up with an alignment (there is only one person on the opposing team who can night kill a townie (though once roled can a FM get us too? If someone knows, that is very important...), thus only one of the four of us can be killed, leaving three in support of either the Family or FBI).

Thirdly, if the four of us are on a lynch train, the strength in numbers can cover any of the townies who have been on one lynch train just incase it only takes this second train to give them an alignment.

With this in mind, I am doing this:

Vote Kessoban

since he has never been on a successful lynch train and is suspicious for being a roled player.

Silanah, on 14 September 2011 - 02:00 PM, said:

okay well i'm willing to go ahead with tellan on this one.



vote kessobahn



if we form a unified front then whatever team we land on we will do our best.

Serc, on 14 September 2011 - 02:07 PM, said:

Tellan, on 14 September 2011 - 02:00 PM, said:

I agree at this point skepticism is healthy. So here is what I was thinking: let's say that we lynch a roled player and all four of us are on a train with a few other people with single lynch train successes. That means us four (and maybe a couple of others) are aligned, assuming all four of us are town (I haven't given you "friendly" status in my mind, yet). Now that means night comes. We are on a team that includes four roled players and four unroled players against a 3 person team. The 3 person team may or may not have a killer at that point (1/3 successful lynches will be the Capo/Cop. I am not sure what the result of a BP versus a lynch would be...).

Moreover, we will be joining a team with a lot of information gathered over the course of the past two nights. Hopefully the team we join will be able to contact at least one of us through PM while, if they have their finder, confirming our townie status. So at that point in the game, at best, the stratification is:

8 of FBI/Family

versus

3 of Family/FBI

versus

2 undecided townies.

Again, this scenario is only if all four of us are town and the single lynch train townies aren't starting with a leaning toward the opposite team (in which case they will be ambiguous the next day with a lynch train background against each side).

In fact, if the single lynch train townies are successful in gaining an alignment, then the numbers are even more stacked in our favor. This is why I am thinking the way I am...

The situation doesn't look as dire as I first believed.

Vote Kessobahn

If this works like we hope, we should have a huge advantage.

Telas, on 14 September 2011 - 02:14 PM, said:

Tellan, on 14 September 2011 - 02:00 PM, said:

I agree at this point skepticism is healthy. So here is what I was thinking: let's say that we lynch a roled player and all four of us are on a train with a few other people with single lynch train successes. That means us four (and maybe a couple of others) are aligned, assuming all four of us are town (I haven't given you "friendly" status in my mind, yet). Now that means night comes. We are on a team that includes four roled players and four unroled players against a 3 person team. The 3 person team may or may not have a killer at that point (1/3 successful lynches will be the Capo/Cop. I am not sure what the result of a BP versus a lynch would be...).

Moreover, we will be joining a team with a lot of information gathered over the course of the past two nights. Hopefully the team we join will be able to contact at least one of us through PM while, if they have their finder, confirming our townie status. So at that point in the game, at best, the stratification is:

8 of FBI/Family

versus

3 of Family/FBI

versus

2 undecided townies.

Again, this scenario is only if all four of us are town and the single lynch train townies aren't starting with a leaning toward the opposite team (in which case they will be ambiguous the next day with a lynch train background against each side).

In fact, if the single lynch train townies are successful in gaining an alignment, then the numbers are even more stacked in our favor. This is why I am thinking the way I am...

It certainly makes it seem less grim.

I really hope Kessobhan is not town though otherwise it kind of messes it all up but he hasn't said much at all throughout the game.

Vote Kessobahn

Korlat, on 14 September 2011 - 02:16 PM, said:

hmmm.


ok


remove vote
vote Kessobahn


all four of you vote for him its a big voting block and you guys will end up dictating this lynch me thinks.
So ill add too the block and go for the enigma that is is kessoh too...

better that than end up missing out on another successful lynch train.

Korbas, on 14 September 2011 - 04:07 PM, said:

I think Kessobahn is a good target. If his CF comes back as town, I'm more inclined to think he is a possible don rather than a disinterested townie. This isn't strong logic but if there are really town players who haven't voted at all so far I don't see how they expect to have a chance at winning. The way the win conditions are set up, town players are strongly encouraged to vote, and so roled players are also encouraged to vote to appear as if they are town. No votes by day three makes me think Kesso is roled.

Vote Kessobahn

I'm still suspicious of Serc, though. Even just now he went from "I don't think I'll vote today" to "Now I'm number 2 on the lynch train" in a little over an hour. IGMEOY, Serc.

Alkend, on 14 September 2011 - 04:34 PM, said:

Shit, we are at 6/8



vote Kesso

he hasn't been on either train, and if he comes back outfit, i'll be sitting pretty...if he comes back FBI... well... i'll be sitting OK as I will have been on a successful lynch of both sides.

Anomandaris, on 14 September 2011 - 04:34 PM, said:

oh and Vote kessobahn

[Alkend]

Not sure how PS will want to handle your last few posts.