[HiddenOne]

Grief, on 20 July 2011 - 07:20 PM, said:

Well, that makes no fucking sense.

ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Mentalist, Tattersail, Vengeance

Everyone left has either claimed finder or supposedly been found.

And yet, the original MH is not dead. Kurts CF makes it pretty clear he was the rebel. So where is the original MH? The OP claims the scum faction is MH and the people he makes rebel, so I don't believe the "one scum at a time idea"

Something dodgy going on with the finders seems pretty much the only option. However, this suggests that there's a finder who didn't counter reveal, which seems unlikely. The only possibility here I can see is if we lynched a finder, before they got a chance to reveal.

Which of these was never cleared by a finder?

[Gust Hubb]

Ansible did tell me he would do it if I would shut the fuck up. I can up the posts if you need that extra pressure to back you grief.

[ansible]

Gust Hubb, on 20 July 2011 - 07:29 PM, said:

Ansible did tell me he would do it if I would shut the fuck up. I can up the posts if you need that extra pressure to back you grief.

I have no problem putting a find on Tatts. Consider it done, boys.

[HiddenOne]

So now what?

[Vengeance]

Grief, on 20 July 2011 - 07:21 PM, said:

Vengeance, on 20 July 2011 - 07:18 PM, said:

Gust Hubb, on 20 July 2011 - 07:15 PM, said:

Well, now that we are down to 7 people, this should go a lot more quickly and smoothly. With two more finds (unless ansible remembered to do one last night...) we will be down to 3 suspicious people. Get another lynch on MH, and then we just need one more day lynch and WE WIN!!!

But remember we have to kill him for a total of 6 times. We have killed him once. Right now I would put his chances at winning on par with ours.

Actually, I'd say MH is at an advantage atm. 1 correct out of 5 is not good.

Yes but we have 3 FKs. Which changes things. Of course we can only use 2 of them. Then we have to rely on lynching. Otherwise the odds change again.

[Grief]

Vengeance, on 20 July 2011 - 07:39 PM, said:

Grief, on 20 July 2011 - 07:21 PM, said:

Vengeance, on 20 July 2011 - 07:18 PM, said:

Gust Hubb, on 20 July 2011 - 07:15 PM, said:

Well, now that we are down to 7 people, this should go a lot more quickly and smoothly. With two more finds (unless ansible remembered to do one last night...) we will be down to 3 suspicious people. Get another lynch on MH, and then we just need one more day lynch and WE WIN!!!

But remember we have to kill him for a total of 6 times. We have killed him once. Right now I would put his chances at winning on par with ours.

Actually, I'd say MH is at an advantage atm. 1 correct out of 5 is not good.

Yes but we have 3 FKs. Which changes things. Of course we can only use 2 of them. Then we have to rely on lynching. Otherwise the odds change again.

We've always had 3 FKs. We have 7 people left. The 3 FKs are only relevant if they can actually hit 3 people, so to use 3 there must be 3 innos left as well as them. We have 7 people left. If even only 1 is scum, that gives us 2 lynches before the stage where we cannot use the FKs(i.e, we lose). We have to be right twice in a row.

If we use the FKs now:

3 FKs, leaves 4 people. If there is one scum, then we only have 2 lynches. We can't win.
2 Fks leaves 5 people. We need 2 lynches. 2 lynches leaves 3 people. The FKs can only kill the remaing inno once. We can't win.
1 FK leaves 6 people. We need 2 lynches, leaving 4 people. The FKs can only now kill twice. We can't win.

We have to be right twice in a row, and cannot use a FK, to win, unless my maths is off.

This also means that if a finder has lied, and we find that out tonight via FK, we still lose.

[Grief]

Actually, my maths is off. One sec.

[ansible]

Grief, on 20 July 2011 - 07:58 PM, said:

Actually, my maths is off. One sec.

Yeah I was about to reply, but I'll wait till you fix it.

[Grief]

Assuming 1 scum.

0 FKs. 7 Left. 1 scum. We get 2 lynches. After that, there are only 3 left, and they're needed for the FKs to be usuable.
1 FKs. 6 left. 1 scum. We get 2 lynches. After that, 2 are left, both needed for the last 2 FKs.
2 FKs. 5 left. 1 scum. Again 2 lynches. After that, FKs use last FK for win.
3 FKs. 4 left. 1 scum. Still 2 lynches.

We get 2 lynches to hit 2 scum. We are on d-day, essentially.

What about odds though?

0 Fks. 7 left. 5 discounting finders. 1 scum. 1/5 chance then 1/4 chance.
1 FK. 6 left. 4 discounting finders. 1 scum. 1/4 chance then 1/3 chance.
2 FK. 5 left. 3 discounting finders. 1 scum. 1/3 chance then 1/2 chance.
3 FK. 5 left. Can't discount any more. 1 scum. 1/5 chance then 1/4 chance.

Bear in mind however, that we can get better odds, if the finders manage to find without killing.

So, I suggest going to night to get the finders the ascertain each other. That is really important, because if one is scum, it the odds entirely.

After that, I think we should play it by ear. Take a couple of finds hoping not to hit MH till we get to good odds, then lynching and hoping. Obviously, once we have had 2 FK, it's probably not worth continuing this tactic, since a third hit slams our odds.

[Khellendros]

dead people don't talk!

-Path-Shaper

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 20 July 2011 - 08:47 PM

[HiddenOne]

Khellendros, on 20 July 2011 - 08:17 PM, said:

dead people don't talk!

-Path-Shaper

Even when they do, they still don't.

[Gust Hubb]

Figuring we are going to night. Trying to stay quiet out of respect for ansible's willingness.

Vote Night.

[HiddenOne]

I'll be back later, but incase you guys wish to proceed with finding:

Vote Night

If this isn't the plan of choice, I'll be around in 4-5 hours

[Tattersail_]

Kurt Montandon, on 20 July 2011 - 06:03 PM, said:

(Yeah, I'm Kermit in this one - guess who the other guy is? Did you guess town? Yes, yes you did).

I laughed at the first one and then more at the second one so rep where rep is due, you make me laugh you get rep ha ha

[Tattersail_]

Path-Shaper, on 20 July 2011 - 06:19 PM, said:

It is Day 8. 27 hours and 59 minutes remaining
8 Players still alive: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Khellendros, Mentalist, Tattersail, Vengeance

5 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.


Players not voted: ansible, Grief, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Khellendros, Mentalist, Tattersail, Vengeance

---


Meng Huo was brought before Gu Yong. "Remember your promise: 'If you catch me again, I will agree to submit.' What do you say now?" "I only failed because here in Wu Xi we were too far to bring many Man soldiers, or any weapons other than spears and shields. We are too far from the rivers for my army to have been supplied with enough food so we had to fight you right away. It was the exhaustion and hunger that defeated us today, not your soldiers. Why should I submit?" "And if I let you go again?" Gu Yong replied. "Even a Man knows something about the art of war. If you send me home, I will be back with a real army to decide the day. And if you catch me again, I will offer my allegiance with heartfelt unwavering sincerity." "Next time you're captured alive and refuse to submit," Gu Yong warned, "it will go hard with you." He had Meng Huo's bonds removed and the King of Kings was sent provided food and sent south.

Meng Huo has been captured twice out of seven times

Captured twice? Was a find used for this?

[Tattersail_]

aah ignore that!!!

[Vengeance]

Lets get this thing rolling..


Vote Night

[ansible]

As soon as Tatts confirms he has a find placed on me I'll throw down a vote for night.

[Tattersail_]

ansible, on 20 July 2011 - 07:22 PM, said:

Also, last night I found Grief again and he is not MH.

I wasn't around to do a find. Now I'm very confused. I thought there are two MH, because the second one "is MH as well". Maybe as a finder we can find the recruited as well as the original. Here is what it says when a find comes back.

In fact i'll ask Ansible to copy and paste what PS tells him when a find comes back just to be clear he is a finder. Sorry Ansible but I haven't cleared Grief once. I will clear you tonight to be certain you're not MH or in his faction.

[Tattersail_]

Grief, on 20 July 2011 - 07:27 PM, said:

I'm leaning towards going to night and having the finders investigate each other actually. Just to be sure, and because it doesn't cost us anything(since we're not looking at a situation where we lynch the finders).

same here. just to be sure.

vote night