Some good points by Mockra and Kaschan. I want to make it clear that I am not symping Kaschan and he is definitely not one of my leaders so if it comes to it, I will vote to lynch him. It may be that others were genuinely symping him so he may be a leader in another faction, I have no idea. I just didn't like the way Galain was posting - as I said before, it just looks disingenious to me. Similarly, since I know that I'm not symping Kaschan, Tennes 'all these people are symping kaschan so he must be a leader' theory has the same flavour.
Since Kessobahn has appeared, I will
remove vote for the time being.
Regarding the possibility that Galain is a leader and is trying to draw NK attempts, I don't think it's too much of a stretch. I've seen it work before. I guess it comes down to what we think Galain is trying to accomplish with his playstyle. If it were a normal game, he would seem to be acting like the stereotypical symp - confusing things, trying to draw attention away from his masters, unafraid of CF. But this is not a normal game so he could be a reckless BM, the equivalent of the 'roleless innocent' who just wants to have fun at all costs but as someone else said, it seems more strategic than that, at least to some of us. Now that we've talked about the possibility of Galain trying to draw NK attempts, it seems less likely that anybody will even try at this point, apart from a 1st and 3rd team. If one of those teams targetted Galain tonight, they'd know whether he was ranked (dead) or not (guarded). Actually, if he's a 7th, he'd be guarded since the 1st is two ranks above and would act first. But then, as Kaschan (I think) said, a 7th is the player with the largest pool of potential victims, potentially making them the most effective killer in the team so they'd probably be the least likely to purposely piss a bunch of people off. A 1st or 3rd can afford to be a bit reckless since there are very few that can kill them. Even a 3rd is only vulnerable to a 1st alone, a 1st + 3rd, 2 3rds, or a 3rd +7th. The latter two combos rely on luck as they can't communicate. I think it should be obvious that the leaders should act together on NK's due to the quality of information. For example:
a 1st targets somebody on their own...death means that player was a 3rd, no result means simply that the player was not a 3rd, whereas,
a 1st +3rd acting together...death means the player was a 1st or 3rd, no result means 7th or BM.
a 3rd acting alone could only kill a 7th, unless he gets really lucky and he's chosen the same target as another ranked player, in which case, he could bag a 3rd or even a first.
A 1st and 3rd would not want to accidentally kill their own 7th, so at this stage cooperating on NK attempts is clearly the superior strategy. So, that being the case, my suggestion to whichever leader team is amenable, target either Galain or Kaschan, depending on who gets lynched - I assume we're determined to lynch because of CF? Anyway, that's my suggestion at this point. Hope that makes sense.
Also, Galain claims to have not known that 1sts and 3rds could communicate, leading to his foolish case on Ano. Despite myself, this is one thing that seemed genuine coming from him so it's less likely that he's a higher rank so i dunno
I hate Day 1. Probably Kaschan is the better option in this case, though I find him sensible. Korlat's behaviour is probably the most damning but I could understand his actions as an annoyed reaction to Galain's playstyle, which probably colours my suspicions as well.
Bah. Just thinking out loud. Hope some of this is useful but I am in no way certain of any of this. Back later.
edit: cross-posted. Catching up
This post has been edited by Hood's Path: 11 February 2009 - 09:38 AM
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