[Tennes]

Kaschan, on Feb 11 2009, 10:30 AM, said:

Tennes, after 6 hours of play and half the players not checked in yet, reluctance to add to a forming train does not imply reluctance to lynch. You're just using that to "add" to a "case" on me that consists of Korlat blundering strangely.

but it does add to the case on you. People have been defending you and trying to deflect from you.

Quote

You say you don't want the players you highlighted lynched in the future? So what is your plan, once I'm dead you'll just say, OK, we're back to zero, who can we go after now? You accuse them of being my symps to bully them in voting me (you are confident I'm not in your team, I was voting Galain), and you set them up for after. Don't try to convince me otherwise.

My current plan for tomorrow is to wait and see who dies tonight. Nothing beyond that. Then i'll look at what happened today (believe me, i'm dreading the thought) and see who could be connected. This will be a great improvement on today.

Your current argument seems to be that I shouldn't point out that people have been defending you, because they might get lynched tomorrow. This is ridiculous. People have been defending you. And I see no reason to be shy about pointing it out.

[Tennes]

Anyone notice how Kaschan is only attacking people who've attacked him?

[Silanah]

Yes.

But I've also noticed that he has good reason to, as well as well-substantiated arguments.

[Rashan]

Korlat, on Feb 11 2009, 06:34 AM, said:

Rashan, on Feb 11 2009, 10:15 AM, said:

It makes you numbered because you didn't think your BM role through as a BM would. The first thing I did was examine my action from all sides and see if my NA was worth anything with so many others around. The second thing I did was look and see how easily I could get killed. The third thing I did was waiting for someone to pop up who saw only the top of the iceberg - namely, a vulnerable little BM who loses against everyone else, and didn't explore further for the upsides of the role.

I assume every other Blackmask at the least saw what I did, it makes sense to go over your own role, even if they then decide to ignore it and want to pursue a less risky strategy than I do. It's the people who didn't see that and only see easy prey that are either 1sts, 3rds and (less so) 7ths, imho - why would they concern themselves deeply with a role that can't threaten them? You proved to be one who suits my reasoning, and the fact that Kesso jumped to your defense by stating I could lynch my own 7th, proved to me that he too did the calculations, and wanted to throw a fast deterrent my way.

If my reasoning was flawed, he could point it out and save you. He didn't. So, I conclude that he thought my approach was a good & reasonable one and my conclusion solid, but that he still needed to protect you.
He could hardly say you were a BM, when my conclusion is you are not. He could also not say you're a first or third, so he stuck to my line of reasoning and suggested you were possibly my team's 7th - but he wouldn't know he had to defend you if you were a 7th. Neither did he realize the odds that you're not my 7th are better than nearly anything else at this stage...

So I think Kesso is a blackmask to you, and you are a 1st or 3rd.
GL commented that he wouldn't attack a certain someone - see the quote: him (Galain, I think?) tonight. That's vastly different from not targeting anyone, and that yopu try to sell it as such reeks of despair.

You are looking way too much into this.
I saw i was a black mask, and thought that tactically it wouldnt be good to attack people since there is a bigger chance and therefore is a much more dangerous than any other role to do so. And left it at that.
I never analyzed it any further. My failure to do so does not make me numbered, it makes me less thorough than I should have been.

Are telling me that i am wrong in saying it is the most dangerous for a blackmask to target someone?
Just because i failed to see the value in actually going for it means nothing.
You are using my inability to see my roles full value as evidence is flawed.

edit- clarity of sentance

Well, right now, you can't say anything other than saying you didn't analyze your role enough, whether BM or numbered, so forgive me for seeing this as the extraction attempt I think it is and not changing my opinion of you.

As for dangers: yes, blackmasks die if they target the wrong guy... unconditionally in 4 cases (1st and 3rd of another team), conditionally but likely in 3 others (the 7th). Still, only 7 out of 23 (assuming a lynch and not targeting yourself) that youre wrong. Also, there's 5 of us on each team. As such, I can afford to be wrong... a 7th, being alone and the only direct unconditional BM killer, can't but has to take the risk anyway, at the least, that's what I think right now, but maybe I'm picturing his prospects a bit too bleakly/ black-and-white.

Anyway, if my reasoning doesn't appeal to enough people, I'm happy switching to Kaschan if my vote is required for a lynch... although I personally doubt it will be necessary - enough people are happy voting for him, apparently.

[Kaschan]

Tennes, on Feb 11 2009, 12:54 PM, said:

Kaschan, on Feb 11 2009, 10:30 AM, said:

Tennes, after 6 hours of play and half the players not checked in yet, reluctance to add to a forming train does not imply reluctance to lynch. You're just using that to "add" to a "case" on me that consists of Korlat blundering strangely.

but it does add to the case on you. People have been defending you and trying to deflect from you.

Deflect from me? Again, 6 hours into the game, and with half the players missing. And again, those players mentioned they would be willing to vote Galain.

OK, I have to work a bit, I think I said my thing.

When I was catching up the thread, I saw the votes and thought, OK, whatever. Then someone (Shadow I think) kept saying that I gave up and stopped defending (when I was sleeping) and that pissed me off.

When I tried to defend, I recapped what got me in this mess. And that's when I realized that everything makes more sense if Galain is a leader. I exposed my case, and I won't repeat it.

I would not be pushing his lynch if I didn't think he was indeed a leader. If I'm wrong, I accept it. Worst case, he's on my team, but unless he's the 7th, it comes out to the same for the team. I'm not a selfish player, I wouldn't jeopardize anything for my team just for the sake of staying alive, since I would not be a big loss for my team.

Since then I was told my case is WIFOM, that I should just lay down and die, that the case on me is "obvious" when it to say it's "first degree" would be an insult to first degree. I also read that everyone that agree with my case "strengthens" the case on me that I'm a leader and have symps.

This bulls-t comes from too many players to not tell me I'm hitting a nerve. If Galain was nobody's leader I can't believe there would be such an amount of bad faith and refusal to read what I say, from so many players.

Anyways, I can't do more than that, I'll be around but unless what I read is particularly reaction-worthy I have said my bit.

[Korlat]

sigh....I can see both your points tennes/Kaschan.
They are both valid.


I am willing to go either way really. The only thing that does sway me more to galain is that i know galains case to be false.

[Kaschan]

Tennes, on Feb 11 2009, 12:55 PM, said:

Anyone notice how Kaschan is only attacking people who've attacked him?

Err? I have 9 votes and the only one I've attacked was Galain (and to a lesser extent, you)

Kessobahn, maybe, but for him to dismiss what I say as "WIFOM" pissed me off a bit.

[Korlat]

Rashan, on Feb 11 2009, 11:14 AM, said:

Well, right now, you can't say anything other than saying you didn't analyze your role enough, whether BM or numbered, so forgive me for seeing this as the extraction attempt I think it is and not changing my opinion of you.

As for dangers: yes, blackmasks die if they target the wrong guy... unconditionally in 4 cases (1st and 3rd of another team), conditionally but likely in 3 others (the 7th). Still, only 7 out of 23 (assuming a lynch and not targeting yourself) that youre wrong. Also, there's 5 of us on each team. As such, I can afford to be wrong... a 7th, being alone and the only direct unconditional BM killer, can't but has to take the risk anyway, at the least, that's what I think right now, but maybe I'm picturing his prospects a bit too bleakly/ black-and-white.

Anyway, if my reasoning doesn't appeal to enough people, I'm happy switching to Kaschan if my vote is required for a lynch... although I personally doubt it will be necessary - enough people are happy voting for him, apparently.

well....whatever.

I see i cant convince you, you stick to your guns. Im not perturbed.
I will thank you for pointing out some game mechanics that i missed though.
So thank you very tah.

[Korlat]

Kaschan, on Feb 11 2009, 11:34 AM, said:

Tennes, on Feb 11 2009, 12:55 PM, said:

Anyone notice how Kaschan is only attacking people who've attacked him?

Err? I have 9 votes and the only one I've attacked was Galain (and to a lesser extent, you)

Kessobahn, maybe, but for him to dismiss what I say as "WIFOM" pissed me off a bit.

Well...he has a point
It IS somewhat WIFOM

[Kaschan]

Korlat, on Feb 11 2009, 01:54 PM, said:

Kaschan, on Feb 11 2009, 11:34 AM, said:

Tennes, on Feb 11 2009, 12:55 PM, said:

Anyone notice how Kaschan is only attacking people who've attacked him?

Err? I have 9 votes and the only one I've attacked was Galain (and to a lesser extent, you)

Kessobahn, maybe, but for him to dismiss what I say as "WIFOM" pissed me off a bit.

Well...he has a point
It IS somewhat WIFOM

Dig in that bag of yours

[Galain]

I am here, catching up.

[Liosan]

oh yay

[Hood's Path]

OK, just returned from a walk and here's what I've been thinking about. We have two blatant BM claims - one from Korlat and one from Rashan. I believe Korlat is almost certainly telling the truth, because I can believe that he was less than thorough in studying the rules as he appears genuinely out of his depth in this crowd. First, he was flustered by galain and then outmaneuvered by Kaschan. Thank fuck he's not one of my leaders Also, truthfully claiming BM seems pretty dumb to me. Rashan is obviously thorough and his argument from the perspective of a BM makes sense but his reason for claiming BM does not, at least to me. We know he's thorough so it's no big stretch that he could wear the perspective of a BM for the purposes of working out the possible combinations. But actually revealing as a BM is dumb, unless you aren't one. I'm sure there's a bunch of people eager to wet their knives and the only safe target for a BM is another BM- so why take the guesswork out of it, assuming you're telling the truth. Much better to claim BM as a ranked player in the hopes of being believed - if you are believed, other ranked players will be wary of wasting a NK attempt on you and any BM's that throw caution to the winds in the hope of putting a notch on their belt die automatically and nobody is the wiser. I think Rashan is capable of this and Korlat less so. I think Korlat is genuinely struggling and was frustrated into revealing. I don't think he's likely to survive the night so I'm not going to waste a vote on him. Also rashan, if Korlat and Kaschan were communicating partners, as you suggest, don't you think the level-headed Kaschan would have been able to rein Korlat in before he dug himself such a big hole? They were active at the same time...so no, Korlat is no leader. Kaschan might be though. If anything Korlat has made it worse for Kaschan.

Also, the more I think on it, the more I move away from the idea that Galain is a leader. I'm now thinknig he saw that he was a BM and didn't bother worrying about mechanics, just deciding to play the symp, ie., as long as he doesn't cause trouble for his masters, it's carte blanche.

So,
Vote Rashan

though I expect to be changing to Kaschan or possibly Galain as the end of the day gets closer

[Telas]

Ok, just read through 200+ posts of cases for and against Kaschan/Galain and it still isnt any clearer. Both are based on the assumption that one of them 'might' be a leader, but the evidence either way isnt all that strong. I guess things are gonna be a little harder since there's no FM or cult to we can pretend to hunt. I think I'm gonna

vote Galain

since the cases are about equal in my mind and I'm still a little pissed off about having to read 100 posts of his spam yesterday.

[Galain]

I'd like to point out first of all that Kaschans "I don't give a shit" vote on kascahn, has been dropped, when he was gaining other votes.
I am also a bit disturbed that people are being de-railed onto me based purely on "Oh, Idc, and he's spammy". If you're gonna vote me, at least reasoning please?
It just seems to me like people are using it as an excuse to hop on.
I believe someone(GL?) offered a reason of me "trying to attract nks because i'm a first".
Theres not really much I can say to that. I am not deliberately trying to attract nks.
I would expect people to be beyond lynching/nking on sheer irritation tbh, and now that you've pointed it out, why would people risk it anyhow?

[Galain]

Telas, on Feb 11 2009, 02:32 PM, said:

Ok, just read through 200+ posts of cases for and against Kaschan/Galain and it still isnt any clearer. Both are based on the assumption that one of them 'might' be a leader, but the evidence either way isnt all that strong. I guess things are gonna be a little harder since there's no FM or cult to we can pretend to hunt. I think I'm gonna

vote Galain

since the cases are about equal in my mind and I'm still a little pissed off about having to read 100 posts of his spam yesterday.

Please re-iterate the case on me.

[Gamelon]

You have 9 votes because its Day 1 and I think its a good case.

1) Korlat made a slip it very much reads as that
2) He reacted badly to it knowing he made a mistake
3) Your receiving an aweful lot of cover from a small but select group of people.
4) If Galain is a leader why would be pick anyone like that to get lynched? How would he know you or Korlat or whatever aren't on his team? Its quite a stretch to make that sort of thing. It reads much more likely as he was spamming and hit something rather than an obvious plan on his part.

Thats how it looks to me, to be honest I haven't reread everything yet, its just so much to catch up on, and finding the time. But thats from Tennes cases and the first few pages and my reading of events.

[Path-Shaper]

It is day 1. You have 10 hours remaining

there are 24 players remaining. 13 to lynch, 12 to go to night.

8 votes for kaschan (tennes, shadow, galain, fener, kessobahn, meanas, liosan, serc)
7 votes for galain (Galayn Lord, kaschan, silanah, ruse, mockra, korlat, telas)
1 vote for hoods path (thyrllan)
1 vote for rashn (hoods path)

[Gamelon]

Crosspost, my above post is directed to Kaschan

[Galain]

Just realised that i've said kaschans don't give a shit vote on kaschan earlier.

What I meant is korlat.

Earlier, korlat voted Kaschan as a "he's not my leader, I don't give a shit" vote.
He has then, rather unsurprisingly to my mind, taken it off at a later date and switched to another train.