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In Topic: Israel and Iran
Yesterday, 04:10 PM
the broken, on 13 March 2026 - 01:01 AM, said:Israel and the US do seem to have excellent intelligence on where key figures are. Maybe they have a shot at finding someone they can deal with and eliminating the rivals?
Mojtaba Khamenei is probably deep underground, in a top secret location not easily susceptible to "bunker buster" bombs. Even if they can locate him, the best they can probably do with (conventional) airstrikes is try to collapse all the entrances. (Though if they have agents inside the underground location I'd suppose they could try to have them assassinate him... but that seems unlikely.)
Secretary of War and wanna-be catalyst of the apocalypse Hegseth said today that Mojtaba is wounded and most likely disfigured. Try to imagine what it would be like if the Trump was not only bombing your nation but had murdered your parents, your wife, your child, wounded you so you're in constant pain, and horribly disfigured you... and you were extremely religious, believed in martyrdom... and believed in revenge.
Pete Hegseth says Iran supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei 'wounded and likely disfigured'
Quote
The only way militarily to guarantee the [Strait of Hormuz] is open [...] would be to take and hold the Iranian territory bordering the strait[...]
"It would require large numbers of ground forces to seize the coast," General Hinote said.
A Weakened Iran Hits Back by Strangling the Vital Strait of Hormuz - The New York Times
Meanwhile, so long as the oil supply shock continues, Russia remains the major "economic winner" of the war:
Quote
The Russians are helping Iran in its war against the United States, first by providing "targeting information," according to the Post, and second by providing "drone tactics," according to CNN.
[...] So the Russians are not only helping the Iranians kill American military personnel [...] They are also helping Iran choke off the global supply of oil at the Persian Gulf's Strait of Hormuz.
[...] The Russians are not only helping Iran kill Americans, but they are also helping reduce the supply of oil, which raises the price of oil, which pressures Trump to ease oil sanctions, which enriches the Russians, which rewards them for helping Iran kill Americans.
[...] What does it look like to American military personnel for the commander-in-chief to act like this? Russia is helping Iran kill Americans, yet he beams with pride when recalling how "very impressed" Putin was by Trump's war with Iran, "because no one has seen anything like it."
Trump says it doesn't matter if Putin is helping Iran kill Americans
Since Trump has no compunctions about lying and thinks his base will believe whatever lies he tells them, he might try to "guarantee" that the US and Israel won't attack again, and maybe even pay reparations to Iran, while lying to the American public to try to make it seem like a victory. But why would Khamenei believe him? And would Netanyahu go along with it, even if it's just for until after the midterms?
If that doesn't work, or Trump isn't willing to try it, then it seems likely the US will eventually end up sending in ground troops to secure the Strait of Hormuz. One big question is how long Trump will wait to do that; higher prices would increase political support for ground troops, especially if Iran comes to be seen as the aggressor in refusing to end hostilities. Might even end up with an international coalition of ground troops if prices go high enough. Trump may feel like there's plenty of time go to before the midterms. And he also recently said:
Quote
The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money [...] Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Truth Details | Truth Social
... and by "we" naturally he means himself, his fossil fuel company donors, and his BFF Putin... -
In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread
Yesterday, 11:09 AM
Werthead, on 12 March 2026 - 10:45 PM, said:ISW is saying that Russia may expand its territorial demands in Ukraine as part of any peace preconditions, possibly demanding the rest of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in addition to maintaining a buffer zone along the borders of at least Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. The expansion of demands may then be used as a casus belli for what now appears increasingly likely to be a mass mobilisation order in May, despite the immense risks that presents.
Trump may end up using Iran as an excuse to lift all sanctions on Russian oil and then use Russia's agreement to a "peace deal" they know Ukraine will never accept as an excuse to refuse to reimpose them... "Russia wants peace, it's that warmonger Zelensky who's the problem".
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In Topic: Israel and Iran
12 March 2026 - 07:27 PM
QuickTidal, on 12 March 2026 - 05:44 PM, said:Azath Vitr (D, on 12 March 2026 - 05:10 PM, said:Based on his first public statement, he seems more interested in (in his translated words) "avenging the blood of [Iran's] martyrs"---
I think this was a direct comment on the school where all those girls were killed...that the US has owned up to...so yeah, I mean yeah...morally how do you not see that and go "Yeah, retaliate on the country that bombed a goddamn school and killed kids" at least in terms of war, tit for tat?
Here it is in context (see the link for a full English translation of the statement):
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I assure everyone that we will not forgo taking vengeance for the blood of your martyrs. The vengeance we intend is not solely related to the martyrdom of the great Leader of the Revolution; rather, every member of the nation martyred by the enemy is a separate subject for the vengeance file. Of course, a limited amount of this vengeance has materialized so far, but until its full extent is achieved, this file will remain on top of other matters, and we will have particular sensitivity regarding the blood of our children. Therefore, the crime deliberately committed by the enemy at the Shajareh Tayyebah school in Minab and similar incidents holds a special significance in this regard.
Iran Not to Forgo Vengeance for Blood of Martyrs: Leader - Politics news - Tasnim News Agency -
In Topic: Israel and Iran
12 March 2026 - 05:10 PM
QuickTidal, on 12 March 2026 - 04:39 PM, said:in the current case the Ayatollahs son is (allegedly) even MORE of a hardliner, so the USA has already ostensibly made things worse in the region.
And the US and Israel not only murdered his father, but also his mother, his wife, and at least one of his children...
https://www.theguard...chine-autopilot
Based on his first public statement, he seems more interested in (in his translated words) "avenging the blood of [Iran's] martyrs"---and making the economic cost to the world, and the political cost to Donald Trump, so great that the United States never tries this again---than in a ceasefire.
Granted, it could be a bluff to hold out for better ceasefire terms. But it's extremely plausible that it's not, and Iran will continue the war even if both Trump and Netanyahu stop attacking.
Trump seems to relish the idea that the world is hostage to his whimsy; Mojtaba's demonstration otherwise, taking away his power to decide on a whim whether to be at war or not (and consequent impact on global markets), is almost certainly infuriating for him.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu...
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described Israel as a modern Sparta. But to preserve its militarist identity, a Sparta requires permanent military friction — of a kind that would also enable its ruler to remain in power — regardless of the price it exacts from the country."
Keeping Israel at war with Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah enables Netanyahu to drag out his corruption trial and avoid a commission of inquiry for his failure to prevent Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, invasion. (If you think that is too cynical, you don't know Netanyahu.)
As Trump Grapples With Iran Objectives, Constant Warfare Is Good for Netanyahu - Israel Security -
In Topic: Israel and Iran
12 March 2026 - 01:21 PM
Expert on authoritarianism Timothy Snyder:
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A purpose of the war on Iran might well be to provoke a terrorist attack inside the United States. This would provide Donald Trump with a pretext to try to cancel or "federalize" the coming Congressional elections.
Self-terrorism might not have been the initial aim; but as time goes by, and failures and atrocities mount, its appeal will grow. Trump could think that he has much to gain; the war itself makes terrorism more likely; there are plausible vectors of terror; and the United States has let down its defenses.
[...] Another possibility is an American act of terrorism on the territory of the United States, either presented as an Iranian attack or not. [...]
[...] In the moment when a republic is meant to give way to a new form of authoritarian regime, the provocation and exploitation of terror is just what one would expect to happen. It is not, in a historical or a political sense, surprising. If we fail to remember history now, we will help the Trump regime generate a sense of panic when the terror attack comes.
[...] We will be horrified, but we cannot be surprised, if there is a terrorist attack on the United States. If choose to be surprised, we co-create a moment that Trump will exploit to undo what remains of our democracy.
The Desire for Terror - by Timothy Snyder
But I imagine it would happen relatively close to election day. Granted, an Iranian terrorist attack might still seem plausible even after many months of ceasefire... and Trump can always lie. A false flag would give him maximum flexibility, and a series of false flags might be more effective (though with greater risk of leaks, defection, or detection as a false flag...).
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Tsundoku
21 Jul 2021 - 12:48Azath Vitr (D'ivers
14 Aug 2019 - 21:23Tsundoku
14 Aug 2019 - 07:51