Malazan Empire: Azath Vitr (D'ivers - Viewing Profile - Malazan Empire

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  1. In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread

    Today, 12:33 AM

    View Postthe broken, on 12 January 2026 - 12:10 AM, said:

    He can't lift all sanctions because he's neither the only person involved of the only country involved. If he started militarily assisting Russia, all of Europe withdraws permission for US troops to be on their soil and general co-operation, and the US suffers the greatest reversal since... WW1? 1812? for no reason at all.

    Edit: I'd imagine he'd also be impeached at that point.


    Of course I meant US sanctions. Congress did pass a law in 2017 (CRIEEA) to try to stop him from lifting Russian sanctions unilaterally, but the law requires a two-thirds majority vote to stop him from doing it:

    https://www.steptoe....ctions-act.html

    Trump also risks most of the rest of Europe kicking US troops off their soil if he invades Greenland---as the chairman of the "NATO enlargement committee" NGO predicted they would, though afaik no official NATO representatives have backed him up on that. (Unfortunately some news articles mistakenly implied that he had some sort of official NATO position.)

    https://fr.wikipedia...nther_Fehlinger

    Quote

    "If you take it, we take every single base of the Americans from Aviano to Ramstein, from Romania, to all the other military bases will be confiscated, and you will lose it, and the whole position of American power since World War II, if you take Greenland, you have to leave, [...] And we can defend ourselves very well, and we will do that without the U.S. nuclear shield, without the U.S. troops in Europe, without the American bases. We will simply run the spaces ourselves, and we will run your boys home into Chicago and Ohio. And goodbye"

    https://www.msn.com/...ing/ar-AA1TNSbX

    So if Trump invades Greenland and (non-US) NATO nations do in fact respond by ordering the US to withdraw all US military forces from Europe---I wonder if they'd also try to forcibly prevent them from traveling over to Ukraine to provide "aid"... and then turn on the Ukrainians. Or prevent them from going over to Russia....

    Perhaps more realistically though, if (non-US) NATO nations kick out the US troops, they'll almost certainly also attempt economic sanctions against the United States for invading Greenland---which might make it seem like a good time for Trump to drop sanctions against Russia. However, if CRIEEA is still in effect and Trump has not yet consolidated power to the point where he can just ignore it, he would have to submit a report to congress, wait 30 days for congressional hearings, and then veto the vote, and wait for congress to fail to override his veto.

    But if the midterms force Trump to use his control of the military and federal law enforcement to seize power from congress and the courts, congress will become irrelevant. The probability of that happening this year is not small.
  2. In Topic: Charlie Kirk Hate

    Yesterday, 11:37 PM

    I thought he might be more on the libertarian side until he posted over in the "What's Making You Happy Right Now" thread about the US having "Storm Troopers"... c'mon Nico if we're aspiring to be the authoritarian evil Empire from Star Wars shouldn't we have an army of Emperors and Darth Vaders instead?... Storm Troopers have plenty of guns, but they're not particularly good at hitting their intended targets... so I guess that's an apter metaphor for most of MAGAmerica.

    Though in all seriousness I might like some Storm Trooperesque armor... at least if it's comfortable enough, and it will stop rifle rounds (and ideally sonic attacks too... got to have my hearing to keep fiddling as Home boils & burns).
  3. In Topic: The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread

    Yesterday, 10:31 PM

    View PostMentalist, on 11 January 2026 - 10:19 PM, said:

    To make things less optimistic:

    Over the course of 1418 days, the orcs pushed roughly 180 km out of Crimea (from the Chonhar bridge to Stepnohirs'k)
    Over the course of 1418 days the orcs captured the agglomeration of Kreminna-Rubizhne-Severedonets'k-Lysychans'k that served as temporary capital of Luhans'k Oblast. They currently control all of Luhans'k Oblast with the exception of ruins of 3 tiny hamlets on the Lyman axis.
    Over the course of 1418 days, the orcs roughly doubled the area of Ukraine they controlled since 2015.
    Over the course of 1418 days the orcs forced millions of Ukrainians to leave their country. The lion's share of these are unlikely to return, and every passing week, month and year makes that number bigger.

    This doesn't mean I'm saying that people need to give up; but I'm against overtly rosy evaluation of the situation. Ukraine hasn't yet reached a point where we can say "this war can't end with the eventual disappearance of Ukrainian statehood and peoples in a near historical horizon". The danger is still very clear and evident, and much more effort is needed to ensure this does not come to pass.


    What would happen if Trump lifted all sanctions and export controls on Russia and started actively aiding the Russian military?

    Then again I'm not sure how much he could get away with without congressional approval... if he doesn't seize Putin-like power when confronted with the prospect of Republicans losing their majorities in the midterms (though in that case I expect he'd be preoccupied with solidifying his rule over the United States for a while, "if he can keep it").
  4. In Topic: The USA Politics Thread

    10 January 2026 - 08:38 PM

    And ICE may end up not just detaining protesters---at least anyone who doesn't have armed bodyguards will probably be relatively easy for them to abduct. (Not sure how much training or experience ICE would have with armed resistance---there have only been a few alleged instances of people shooting at ICE.)

    And if Trump's military forces can abduct Maduro, they can probably abduct just about anyone inside the United States, provided Trump's found people to promote who are willing to do it (at least if he's found others to threaten their lives and their families)...
  5. In Topic: The USA Politics Thread

    10 January 2026 - 08:24 PM

    View PostCause, on 10 January 2026 - 07:13 PM, said:

    We are reaching the pivotal moment. The republican house majority is now temporarily weakened to the point that they have a 1 vote margin of error. The cowards who left or were forced from office (MTG etc) are finding they can speak out about disagreements. The Epstein scandal is still there. Venezuela is not gonna boost his numbers (oil execs said it's not worth investing in). ICE is becoming a problem for republicans too. We are now 6 months? Less? From being fully in midterm elections. The Republican Party will have to break from some of his craziness to stand a chance of retaining some seats. If they lose the house and senate Trumps policies will never again see the light of day again except for executive orders which will be severely blunted.

    So within the next six months we will see significant improvement or we will see a rapid slide to chaos towards another Jan 6th.


    ... except now Trump has purged much of the US military and federal law enforcement, and has ICE ready to be deployed to brutally detain and murder more protesters... one big question is whether he's purged enough of the military and federal law enforcement for a successful auto-coup, and---if there are mass resignations---how functional the government would be afterwards.

    So maybe a bit like January 6th, but it's the military and federal law enforcement---and militarized ICE---doing it...

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Comments

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  1. Photo

    Tsundoku 

    21 Jul 2021 - 12:48
    I hear it's always sunny there
  2. Photo

    Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

    14 Aug 2019 - 21:23
    Philadelphia.
  3. Photo

    Tsundoku 

    14 Aug 2019 - 07:51
    Damn, dude. Where the heck are you???
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