Posted 06 August 2007 - 11:43 PM
A year ago, I'd have said NZ no question, but now I must say I have a bad feeling. They really have gone off the boil in recent months. Still, if they can sort out their lineout, then they should still be favourites.
As is typical, Australia have started to look really dangerous now as the world cup approaches. Amazing improvement really, and I'd never write them off when it comes to tournament play. They never know when they are beaten.
The Boks? Again, hard to tell since their squad was quite under strength at the end of the tri-nations. But as long as they have Habana fit, then they will scare the All Blacks ;-)
They do look to have a strong squad overall. But I don't think teams like Ireland and Argentina fear the Boks anymore. And that has really leveled the field.
Argentina could be a real threat as well considering France is like a second home for so many of their players, and they will have the crowd on their side for many of their games.
And my beloved Ireland. On our day, we can take anyone, but I don't think we have the squad depth for a sustained challenge throughout a tournament. An injury or suspension to one of our key players like O'Driscoll, or O'Connell and we really struggle. Our only hope is to manage to sneak our way through to the final and play New Zealand, where their ability to choke in a world cup will finally overcome our inferiority complex when playing the All Blacks.
England have too much riding on Wilkinson's health I think. France? Who knows, they're French! They could bow out with na'ry a whimper or explode and dazzle all before them. I would never bet on them.
But despite all my reservations, I'll still go with NZ. Because, despite playing pretty messy rugby for the last few months, teams have still struggled to last a full 80 mins against them. It is similar to how the Crusaders were in the Super 14 the previous year, where they would wear teams down physically, and then blitz them in the final 20 mins. If the the All Blacks can control their lineout, and cut out the sloppy handling errors, then they could destroy everybody.
If Ireland don't win then i hope it's New Zealand.
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