[Lady Bliss]

 Azath Vitr (D, on 16 May 2026 - 01:37 PM, said:

The bond market has effectively decided it's had enough of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.

And Trump has apparently already caved on Iran's request to postpone nuclear talks until after an agreement to reopen the Strait:

Quote

The US and Iran appear to have put talks about Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium on the back-burner in an effort to end their war, with both sides suggesting it's a subject for a later date.

Iran said it had "come to the conclusion with the Americans" to postpone the topic until the later stages of negotiations

https://www.bloomber...-stays-cautious

But that wasn't enough for the bond market... the 30-year going over 5% seemed to be what finally got Trump to relent on his ridiculous initial reciprocal tariffs, and the 30-year has been over 5% for days, including going for over 5% at auction for the first time since 2007... even the 20-year is over 5%...

Quote

The 30-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD30Y this week topped the 5% threshold, the benchmark 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y reclaimed the 4.5% for the first time since June 2025 on Friday, and the policy-sensitive 2-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD02Y climbed above 4%, also for the first time in 11 months.

All three rates are important to the Fed, banks and borrowers.

The bond market is already hiking rates as Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed's new chair - MarketWatch via Yahoo Finance

On Friday it finally became enough to start to sink the stock market.

Wonder how much higher yields will go before the Taco-Man Cometh.

Taco Monday? "It's rain- / in' tacos, hallelujah!"? We can pray...

Yeah, there has been a lot of stock manipulation going on. All to make the rich richer and fuck everyone else I guess.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

 Mentalist, on 16 May 2026 - 02:13 PM, said:

I mean, he could just start bombing again, and think that'll fix things

China clearly told him they won't be getting involved, so he's likely to feel pressure to show off.

The bond market would react very negatively to renewed bombing, especially because Iranian retaliation would destroy more energy infrastructure and more US military assets... but it's Trump, so who knows.

A recent report by Morgan Stanley demonstrated that China has been largely responsible for keeping the price of oil relatively low during the war by expending its stockpiles. The US has been exporting its oil reserves while China has been reducing its imports, and together they've compensated for about 2/3rds of the reduction in oil. But US stockpiles are probably going to be running out relatively soon. China's can almost certainly last much longer.

So it seems the US is heavily dependent on continued Chinese support.

Basically China has so far decided to use up its stockpiles to prevent a global recession, which would negatively impact China.

And up until recently most markets (including oil futures) had been acting as if they expected the ultimate TACO flop any moment now. Traders expect Trump to be prompted to TACO if there's enough of a drop, so they've been reluctant to sell. But by not selling they failed to pressure Trump to TACO... while prolonging the closure and thereby magnifying and compounding the physical shortages.

Why global oil prices aren't higher - Axios

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 16 May 2026 - 03:01 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

And China has been improving its geopolitical position relative to the United States by burning through its oil stockpiles to help extend the war:

Quote

the United States blew through its arsenal [during the Iran war]—so much so that allies in the Pacific reasonably wonder whether enough munitions remain to protect them. [...] the Pentagon is now worried that it lacks the firepower to execute contingency plans for defending Taiwan.

Supporters of the [Iran] war argued that it would deal China a severe blow by eliminating one of its most potent allies. But the Gulf nations most threatened by Iran have actually turned to China. [...] an intelligence assessment prepared for the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned that those countries have begun acquiring from Beijing the systems needed to protect their oil infrastructure and bases. [...]

Without exerting itself much, Beijing has profited from America's self-immolation. China's petroleum reserves and its investments in renewable energy have allowed it to offer Thailand, the Philippines, and Australia relief from the energy crisis that the United States instigated. Instead of applying diplomatic pressure on Iran to cut a deal, China has let the conflict linger, so that the United States continues to bear the blame for the disruptions to shipping. Meanwhile, China poses as the faithful steward of the rules-based order—the cooler head, the power on which even the U.S. must now rely.

The Lame Duck Superpower - The Atlantic

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 16 May 2026 - 04:02 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

The Iranian ambassador, who has been more prominently involved in the negotiations with the US than any other Iranian official, was taunting Trump about bond yields on Twitter (... I'm not going to call it X, f**k Musk).

Seems counterproductive if he wants Trump to cave... and I'd assume he'd realize that. Don't taunt the toddler and do the "bawq bawq" chicken dance to his face if you want him to chicken out promptly.

So Trump's threatening to completely annihilate Iran again:

Quote

For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE! President DJT

Truth Details | Truth Social

The clock is ticking alright... ticking down to TACO time!

I've been going around my apartment doing my TACO dance and envisioning tacos raining from the sky.

But it would probably be best not to send it to Trump.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 17 May 2026 - 06:45 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Trump on Truth Social today:




Donald J. Trump: "" - Trump's Truth

Hmm... so in addition to reconquering Afghanistan he wants us to seize Egypt (gold!) and Uzbekistan (they've got some oil!) too? And don't leave out Tabkistan...




Donald J. Trump: "" - Trump's Truth

Notice the mushroom cloud. Implicit threat to nuke Iran (again).

Quote

If Iran surrenders [...] and if their entire Military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped and hands held high, each shouting "I surrender, I surrender" while wildly waving the representative White Flag [...] and admit their defeat to the great power and force of the magnificent U.S.A., The Failing New York Times, The China Street Journal (WSJ!), Corrupt and now Irrelevant CNN, and all other members of the Fake News Media, will headline that Iran had a Masterful and Brilliant Victory over The United States of America, it wasn't even close. The Dumacrats and Media have totally lost their way. They have gone absolutely CRAZY!!! President DJT

Donald J. Trump: "If Iran surrenders, admits their Navy is gone and resting at the bottom of t... - Trump's Truth

lol

Yes they're the stupid crazy ones...

Meanwhile Iran says negotiations are still continuing and offered a new peace proposal today.

https://www.aljazeer...t-drone-attacks

Would be interesting negotiating with Trump if most of his responses were the above deranged images and rants... probably for the best that he doesn't do the negotiating himself.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 18 May 2026 - 03:18 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Trump claims an agreement with Iran is 'largely negotiated'

https://www.aljazeer...eal-yet-with-us

Quote

a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE. An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. Separately, I had a call with [...] Netanyahu[...] which, likewise, went very well. Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.

Donald J. Trump: "I am in the Oval Office at the White House where we just had a very good cal... - Trump's Truth

So Netanyahu failed to talk him out of it.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 23 May 2026 - 08:29 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

 Azath Vitr (D, on 23 May 2026 - 08:28 PM, said:

So Netanyahu failed to talk him out of it.

False flag by Israeli agents in 3... 2... 1...

This post has been edited by Tiste Simeon: Yesterday, 06:32 AM