[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Iranian officials seem confident they can withstand economic pain caused by war longer than President Trump, analysts say. But they are still concerned that without the momentum of negotiations, they will remain trapped under the persistent threat of U.S. or Israeli attacks.

[...] Trump also seems to believe that the United States can outlast Iran in withstanding the war's economic pain of the parallel blockades of the Strait of Hormuz.

The result is that neither side is willing to give ground that could allow talks to move forward.

[...] some economists estimate Iran's authoritarian rulers can survive the current economic crisis for three to six months.

By contrast, [...] the disruptions to oil production and exports like fertilizer could start to cause deeper economic shocks to the global economy within weeks

Iran and U.S. Sink Into Awkward Limbo of 'No War, No Peace' - The New York Times

... and waiting is just making it (and the prolonged economic aftermath of any agreement) worse... except for Putin and many fossil fuel companies (among other beneficiaries), of course.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 26 April 2026 - 04:01 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Iran gave the U.S. a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later stage, according to a U.S. official and two sources with knowledge.

[...] the Iranian leadership is divided about what nuclear concessions should be on the table. The Iranian proposal would bypass that issue en route to a faster deal.

[...] But lifting the blockade and ending the war would remove President Trump's leverage [...]

Trump signaled in an interview with Fox News on Sunday that he wants to continue the naval blockade that is choking off Iran's oil exports, hoping it will get Tehran to cave over the next few weeks.

"When you have vast amounts of oil pouring through your system ... if for any reason this line is closed because you can't put it into containers or ships ... what happens is that line explodes from within. ... They say they only have about three days before that happens," Trump said.

Iran offers US deal to reopen Hormuz strait, postpone nuclear talks - Axios

Ah right, the pipelines will explode in three days... just like Jesus. It will be another Trump miracle!

Of course Trump is either bullshitting, delusional, dementia-addled, or very badly misinformed:

Quote

Experts told CNN that Trump is vastly overstating what happens when an oil-producing state can no longer export. Iran's oil facilities are unlikely to explode, since many have been shut down, the experts explained.

"When tankers are no longer available to load oil production, the onshore inventories begin to fill up. As onshore facilities fill up, one begins to cut production. That has already happened in Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE. There have been no explosions in this regard, as yet," Andy Lipow, of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNN over email.

But shutting wells could result in decreased oil production in the future once facilities are reopened, he noted.

Ultimately, "the oil will not explode," Lipow said.

https://www.cnn.com/...0003b6re9ac9iv6

Ultimately the Iranian proposal at least suggests that they'll let Trump chicken out... when he finally does. The sooner the better, for the sake of the world (... minus Russia).

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 27 April 2026 - 03:31 AM

[Cause]

Something I find fascinating in the modern day is that NBC has published an investigative journal piece that says the damage to American military bases is far greater and costlier than the us government has admitted. Whats the balance between secrecy and informing the public. If you did this in WW2 you would be jailed if not outright shot as a spy/traitor I would imagine.

Now the iran war is far from WW2s Total war for survival so the environment is different. Nevertheless one imagines that Iran benefits from such an investigation taken by an American company. Also have to weigh that against what information a state actor like Iran would reasonable have. They know their pilot breached the air defenses because its there pilots but would they know the extent of the damage caused by missile strikes?

As congress votes to continue the war or strip Trump of his ability to prosecute the war they have access to this level of information I believe. So does the general public need to know or not?

[QuickTidal]

Cause, on 27 April 2026 - 04:34 PM, said:

Something I find fascinating in the modern day is that NBC has published an investigative journal piece that says the damage to American military bases is far greater and costlier than the us government has admitted. Whats the balance between secrecy and informing the public. If you did this in WW2 you would be jailed if not outright shot as a spy/traitor I would imagine.

I mean, the whole of US history SINCE WWII is LITTERED with the government (no matter the party) lying through their teeth about anything military so as not to upset the "Spend billions" apple cart. Provable shit too.

Like finding out that during the Vietnam War, Kissinger and then-President Richard Nixon ordered clandestine bombing raids on neutral Cambodia, in an effort to flush out Viet Cong forces in the east of country. Which is an insane war crime. Nixon govt. Covered up.

Or that there is literal audio tape of JFK allowing Ngo Dinh Diem to be killed alongside his brother when they had the intel that KNEW there was an ambush about to take place...all because Ngo Dinh Diem was going to have an open election across Vietnam that would have resulted in a Ho Chi Minh victory and he wanted the Vietnamese people to decide as a whole. JFK govt. Covered up.

Those are just two stories of many that have come out since those admins are out of power. No one does shit. No one is held accountable. Most DC politicians HONOURED Kissinger when he died a few years ago, and the man was a fucking monster.

The balance between secrecy and informing the public is non-existent. They don't let Americans in on like 90% of the real facts.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 27 April 2026 - 04:53 PM

[Cause]

On further thought, although it still seems on the face kinda strange to me I don’t think the NBC reported much that Iran couldn’t have known from other sources.

The pictures them posted are commonly available from commercial satellites, which is also an interesting thing to consider. So without confirming exact losses or locations I guess the didn’t provide actionable intelligence to Iran.

Just a sign of how free and available information is today.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Trump has told advisers he is not satisfied with Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [...]

Some administration officials believe that continuing the blockade for two more months would cause significant long-term damage to Tehran's energy industry. Oil wells cannot be turned on and off, and they would be damaged if they are forced to shut down, incurring costly repairs. Iran, these officials argue, will make a deal to avoid such long-term problems.

But others in the administration have said the assessment is flawed, noting that Iran's positions have hardened, and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has only solidified its hold on power.

Trump Is Dissatisfied With Iran's Plan to Reopen Strait of Hormuz - The New York Times

Two more months? That would almost certainly have devastating consequences for the global economy... and those are Trump's optimistic advisors.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

The Iran conflict is the new Cold War

Several U.S. officials told Axios they're concerned about America getting drawn into a frozen conflict of no war and no deal.

In this scenario, the U.S. would have to keep its forces in the region for many more months. The Strait of Hormuz would stay closed [...]

[...] "a frozen conflict is the worst thing for Trump politically and economically," one source close to the president said.

[...] Trump is vacillating between launching new military strikes or waiting to see whether his "maximum pressure" financial sanctions make Iran more inclined to negotiate an end to its nuclear weapons program[...]

"All [Iran's leaders] understand is bombs," Trump recently told one adviser[...]

"He doesn't want to use force. But he's not backing down."

The Iran conflict has become the new Cold War - Axios

Technically, if Trump starts bombing again and the Strait still remains closed for just as long as it would have been closed if he hadn't started bombing again (or perhaps even longer, out of defiance and for revenge and deterrence)... then at best all Trump will have done economically for the United States is waste more bombs. And Iran will begin attacking US bases and personnel again, as well as Gulf State oil (and other) infrastructure, possibly presuade the Houthis to close the Red Sea as well, and probably try to launch terrorist attacks inside the United States (and probably Western Europe (including the UK) and Canada as well)...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 28 April 2026 - 12:35 PM

[Macros]

If they have any sense they wont touch Europe as they arent playing ball with Trump on this yet

[Abyss]

Macros, on 28 April 2026 - 12:35 PM, said:

If they have any sense they wont touch Europe as they arent playing ball with Trump on this yet

Two versions of that story....


"Let's leave everyone else alone because they will continue to pressure the US."
vs
"Let's bomb the fuck out of everyone else because then they will pressure the US."


"Let's leave everyone else alone so they don't join with the US against us" assumes those in power in Iran give a crap, and they really don't. Their people were on the ineffective verge of failed revolution not so long ago... they really don't care if a few thousand more die and British or Saudi or whoever's jets aren't going to do any damage the US and/or Israel wasn't already doing.

[QuickTidal]

I don't see Iran doing any terror attacks inside anywhere as of now...the US has been stumbling like morons through all of this...there is no real need for foreign soil terror attacks when they are already at war. Terror attacks are for unexpected peace times for maximum effect....that talk to me if just more media scare nonsense for clickbait.

Iran gains nothing from terror attacks in this type of conflict. They literally hold all the cards with the strait. All they need to do is hold that and they are good in perpetuity, and they KNOW the global economy will do all the pressuring that will be needed. Oil futures and capitalists is what will eventually make the US buckle. Not Iran doing terror attacks.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Trump Tells Aides to Prep for Lengthy Hormuz Blockade, Report Says

Trump told his aides to prepare for an extended US Naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reported [...] Trump determined that was a less risky option than resuming bombing

Trump Tells Aides to Prep for Lengthy Hormuz Blockade, Report Says - Yahoo Finance

Price of Brent crude spiking in response... over $115/barrel (of oil) now.

Quote

Wall Street analysts do seem to be coming to the realization that higher prices stemming from the conflict are going to be longer lasting.

Citi raised its forecast this week. And Goldman Sachs did, too, predicting the price of a barrel of Brent crude, the global benchmark, would average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from $80.

The forecast is now nearly $30 higher than it was before the war started.

Those numbers are their base case, which now assumes that the Strait of Hormuz reopens at the end of June. If the reopening is at end of July, they predict $100 oil. And in the worst-case scenario, the strait never fully gets back to normal, and oil remains elevated at $120.

Oil's New Reality - Axios Markets

Poll taken from April 24 to April 27 (assassination attempt was on April 25) found that Trump's approval ratings had reached a new low:

Quote

Trump's Approval Tanks to New Low as Costs Explode

The drop in approval comes amid mounting economic frustration ahead of the midterms.

https://www.thedaily...-costs-explode/

... and prices are only going higher from here (for an extended period...).

Trump's extreme hyperbole went into reverse for once:

Quote

during a state dinner with [...] King Charles, Trump said [...] "We're doing a little Middle East work right now, … and we're doing very well,"

Donald Trump tells aides to prepare for extended blockade of Iran, WSJ reports | The Jerusalem Post

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 29 April 2026 - 01:18 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Well that didn't last for long. Seems Trump didn't like the way markets (perhaps above all the bond market) reacted to his disastrously stupid plan to wait two months or more. And/or he was finally satisfied with whatever bribes he managed to extort from the world.

Quote

CENTCOM has prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iran — likely including infrastructure targets — in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock, three sources with knowledge said.

[...] Another plan expected to be shared with Trump is focused on taking over part of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it to commercial shipping. Such an operation could include ground forces, one source said.

Another option that has been discussed in the past and might come up in the briefing is a special forces operation to secure Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

https://www.theweek....ainst-iran.html

And they want to use hypersonic missiles:

Quote

In a major move, the US is reportedly planning to deploy the long-range hypersonic missile, Dark Eagle, to the Middle East as it continues to amass military power in the region [...]

The request was made by the US Central Command, citing that the Iranian regime has moved its launchers out of the range of US precision strike missiles, which can only hit targets that are over 300 miles away[...]

If approved, the deployment would mark the first time the US has used a hypersonic missile which has not been declared fully operational yet.

[...] "[It] can range mainland China from Guam," Lt. Gen. Francisco Lozano, director of Hypersonic, Directed Energy, Space and Rapid Acquisition, told Hegseth, providing the range figure at the same time.

https://www.theweek....ainst-iran.html

... so possibly related to Trump's upcoming summit with Xi.

Though the greater display of force might be a wave of devastating cyberattacks (against Iran, that is, not China---not yet... just cyber-espionage for China), if that turns out to be feasible.

[Cause]

Anyone able to summarize what UAE leaving OPEC means? Are they leaving to up production of oil and increase supply, good thing for the USA I suppose if they can actually get it to market.

Seems like a big deal but not heard much.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 30 April 2026 - 02:40 PM, said:

Are they leaving to up production of oil and increase supply,

Yup. But only after the Strait reopens and they can actually ship it.

Quote

good thing for the USA I suppose if they can actually get it to market.

Good for bringing down prices after the Strait reopens, but more competition in the long run since the US is an oil exporter. Still, the lower energy prices could make it a net long term positive for the US, particularly if the development of AI and robotics continue to be the most important drivers for economic and military development.

Quote

Its departure from OPEC means little for oil prices at the moment because the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has forced producers across the Persian Gulf to slash production. But in the long term, the move could contribute to greater volatility since less oil will be subject to production controls.

OPEC countries supplied more than a quarter of the world's oil before the war. Russia and several other countries also coordinate with OPEC through a grouping known as OPEC Plus.

Emirati officials had long floated the idea of quitting the cartel, complaining that quotas had unfairly limited their ability to export oil.

[...] The [UAE], which has been aiming to boost its production capacity to five million barrels a day by 2027, is now expected to pump more to serve its own interests. That is, once tankers can resume travel through the Strait of Hormuz

UAE Says It Will Leave OPEC as Iran War Strains Oil Markets - The New York Times

Back to hypersonic missiles: their speed might also provide a substantial advantage in assassinating Iranian leaders as they try to move above-ground between bunkers. Granted, they could just try to stay in those bunkers, but just the credible threat of swift assassination if they leave those bunkers could exert more pressure on them.

OTOH while it would also provide an obvious advantage in protecting ships, obviously it wouldn't be cost effective, since they're much more expensive than conventional missiles.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Trump probably wants to use the conflict as leverage when he travels to China May 14-15. With a show of US military and cyberwarfare power leading up to it.

So he may wait to TACO until a little while after that. Maybe not immediately afterwards, if he doesn't want it to seem too obvious... unless China offers him something he can flaunt as a major concession, or persuades the Iranian leadership to.

[Werthead]

Iran has launched a military operation over the Strait of Hormuz, targeting at least two ships (a South Korean cargo vessel and a UAE tanker) and the port of Fujairah, as well as launching drones and cruise missiles towards Dubai. UAE air defences have engaged. Qatar has gone on full alert.

Two US destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz were ordered to leave and then fired upon by Iranian vessels, though the Americans have not confirmed this.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 04 May 2026 - 04:37 PM, said:

Iran has launched a military operation over the Strait of Hormuz, targeting at least two ships (a South Korean cargo vessel and a UAE tanker) and the port of Fujairah, as well as launching drones and cruise missiles towards Dubai. UAE air defences have engaged. Qatar has gone on full alert.

Two US destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz were ordered to leave and then fired upon by Iranian vessels, though the Americans have not confirmed this.

Since not everyone here has been closely following the news, you really should have mentioned that this was in response to the United States trying to "guide" ships through the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of the Iranian blockade, and the cargo vessel and the tanker were most likely two of those ships:

Quote

"[...] we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business," [Trump] wrote on Truth Social.

US Central Command has said the operation, dubbed Project Freedom, will "support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor," with support from guided-missile destroyers, aircraft, and other military assets [...]

However, the plan from US Central Command stops short of providing naval escorts, the Wall Street Journal reported. Maritime risk and insurance experts said the lack of firm security guarantees opens up questions of safety and may keep vessel owners from jumping on the proposal.

"Without naval escorts, vessel owners will not treat this as a normal reopening of Hormuz,"

Trump says the US will 'guide' ships through the Strait of Hormuz — here's why that might not work - Yahoo Finance

Head of Central Command now claiming Navy ships shot down drones and missiles fired at commercial vessels, Army helicopters sank six Iranian speedboats, and Navy destroyers made it through the Strait of Hormuz into the Arabian Sea.

Iran War Live Updates - The New York Times

Those destroyers could presumably try to escort ships through the Strait. The Iranian government is denying that any Iranian warboats were destroyed.

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

Trump posted about 3 minutes ago claiming it was seven Iranian boats, and confirming that the South Korean vessel was struck attempting to exit the Strait under US guidance as part of Trump's "Project Freedom".

Trump's Truth

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 04 May 2026 - 05:39 PM

[Cause]

Why is the UAE in particular getting so much targeting from Iran. Or maybe it just seems that way but the UAE in particular seems pissed at Iran and reacting the most.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

While the precise number of transits per day will be contingent on the capacity of available naval assets, multiple security agencies and experts consulted by Lloyd's List have confirmed that a convoy scheme that clusters up to around five to 10 vessels moving under protection is the only viable option to meaningfully resume transits.

Given the length of the transit and that it will be difficult to simultaneously operate convoys in both directions given the narrowness of the strait, any escort system would severely restrict the volume of ships passing through

Estimates vary, but the consensus across eight well-placed security experts from both naval and commercial operations indicate that a best-case scenario would see just under 10% of the normal flow of 45-50 tankers daily transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

https://discoveryale...nergy-security/

... and the US has only had two confirmed destroyers enter the Arabian Sea... and Central Command is still insisting on "guidance" rather than "escort".

[Maark Abbott]

Cause, on 04 May 2026 - 06:29 PM, said:

Why is the UAE in particular getting so much targeting from Iran. Or maybe it just seems that way but the UAE in particular seems pissed at Iran and reacting the most.

As I understand it the two countries have quite a dislike for each other, but I couldn't substantiate that with any reasoning beyond things I've heard secondhand.