[QuickTidal]

amphibian, on 17 April 2026 - 02:09 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 17 April 2026 - 11:48 AM, said:

Without the US intervention with Mossadegh (Pre-Shah), NONE of this occurs. There's no Shah, no Russia involvement, and no Islamic revolution. A democratically elected leader deigned to suggest that Iran should make money off its oil for its own people, and the US spazzed and created ALL this...so it's a little rich for Cause to suggest that Iran is being provocative when for all intents and purposes this whole situation is the US's fault, and never mind that things were heading in the right direction with Obama and any threat of "nuclear" type was long gone...until Trump.

Their treatment/murder of protestors is a seperate thing that does not affect the USA, and is not a world issue as far as I'm concerned, when the US won't hold other nations accountable for the same and worse. Iran is only free game because "oil" and "Israel said pretty please"?

It's my firm thinking that Iran, the very large Shia majority oil producing and controlling nation, would come into significant conflicts with the Wahhabi Gulf states and with the Iraqi regime under Saddam Hussein even without US involvement.

I think that's a fair thing to surmise, and I'm certainly not going to say that without US intervention things would have been tickety boo, but we will never know because the US always gets involved so we don't have to speculate about that alternate timeline.

In this timeline, the US's involvement is a rock solid fact of how Iran ended up where it ended up.

I'm not defending the regime in control of Iran here, let's be clear, but Iran as a whole nation of 90+ million people is WAY worse off than it would have otherwise have been without that US intervention. In a perfect world where Mossadegh gets to actually make the oil industry serve the population on a long measure, I think the nation develops differently.

That said, seeing images from the past of gulf states as they modernized in the mid-20th century like Western nations did...only to be shunted back by religion (no matter the religion) is always a terrible thing to see.

But I'm on the notion that organized religion is the source of MOST of the ills of this planet and we would universally be better off without any of it.

[amphibian]

Over time, I've come to think that people with strong interests in ruthless impoverishment of and control over women and minorities use whatever facade they want to achieve their objectives. The religious facades are easier to identify, yet there's other ones that are as pernicious and corrosive.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

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An initial announcement by Iran that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open[...] was subsequently qualified to exclude ships and cargoes linked to "hostile" countries [hostile to Iran, that is]. Iran state media also reported the government would fully close the strait again if the US didn't end its blockade of Iranian shipping. [...] Trump said the blockade would continue.

Persian Gulf Shipping Sticks With Caution: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Schrodinger's Strait?...

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Shipping experts said on Friday that several vessels approached the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf but then turned around. [...] it was "unclear if they were instructed to retreat or if something else changed their minds."

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

Trump has been making a bunch of extravagant claims about major Iranian concessions, and the Iranian government says he's lying.

[Cause]

The overthrow of Mossadegh was primarily instigated by … the British. I won’t deny that history is improtant but I don’t think it’s very helpful to go back 75 years to unpack this war today except as an academic exercise.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Two other historical precedents most Iranians probably remember:

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The Algiers Accords of January 19, 1981 was a set of obligations and commitments undertaken independently by the United States and Iran to resolve the Iran hostage crisis [...] Among its chief provisions are:

1. The US would not intervene politically or militarily in Iranian internal affairs;

Algiers Accords (1981) - Wikipedia

And one ancient precedent that's been circulating in slightly inaccurate meme form: Emperor Julian the Apostate's invasion of Iran:

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Julian's ultimate aim seems to have been "regime change" [...] the army had reached the vicinity of the heavily fortified Persian capital, Ctesiphon [...] Julian's generals persuaded him not to mount a siege against the city, given the impregnability of its defenses [...] they were on the wrong side of the Tigris with no clear means of retreat and the Persians had begun to harass them from a distance, burning any food in the Romans' path. Julian had not brought adequate siege equipment, so there was nothing he could do when he found that the Persians had flooded the area behind him, forcing him to withdraw. [...] In the haste of pursuing the retreating enemy, Julian chose speed rather than caution, taking only his sword and leaving his coat of mail. He received a wound from a spear [...] a major hemorrhage occurred and the emperor died during the night. Some Christian writers reported that his final words were "Thou hast conquered, Galilean."

Julian (emperor) - Wikipedia

The meme claims he "attacked the Pope", which in a way he did by renouncing Christianity. But he apparently wasn't considered "insane".

Note how the Iranians defeated the invasion partly by retreating to "impregnable" defenses and partly through shutting down their attackers' access to resources (food in this case---the Romans had assumed they'd be able to pillage for food) and waiting for them to run out of supplies..

[Grief]

Cause, on 18 April 2026 - 01:03 AM, said:

The overthrow of Mossadegh was primarily instigated by … the British.

That's a very debateable (and debated) statement. The word "instigated" does a lot of lifting.

American perspectives on the coup like to blame the British, typically by arguing they took advantage of America's paranoia about the spread of communism. This glosses over the fact that the British had no meaningful ability to pull of the coup by themselves. Mossadegh expelled their staff in late 1952, almost a full year before the coup itself. The Americans on the ground were instrumental both to the build up of the operation and its success on the day.

It also glosses over US support for the oil blockade in the lead up, that the US persistently negotiated on the side of the UK when push came to shove during the crisis, the fact that US oil companies were arguably the largest beneficiaries of the coup, and continued US support for the Shah in subsequent years.

Britain absolutely wanted the coup and absolutely encouraged the Americans to do it, and obviously the nationalisation of British oil interests kicked off the crisis, but the coup itself relied on Americans and could not have happened without them. The same US administration proved perfectly capable of going against British interests when it suited them, demonstrated most obviously at Suez in the same period. It's not like the Americans had no agency over their foreign policy, and no responsibility for its aftermath.

To state the obvious: the British are not in charge of the CIA.

The coup is fundamentally an American decision.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

... and the Strait is now definitely closed again. And Israel has been attacking Lebanon again.

Quote

Iran's military said on Saturday that "control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state" [...] the strait would remain "under strict control" unless the United States restored "full freedom of navigation for vessels traveling from Iran to destinations and from destinations to Iran," referring to the American blockade of Iranian ports.

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

The Iranian military

Quote

broadcast to ships that the waterway was closed to maritime traffic, and one supertanker reported gunfire [...]

[...] the country's Foreign Ministry spokesman, told state television that enriched uranium "is as sacred to us as Iran's soil, and it won't be transferred anywhere under any circumstances."

[...] Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the country's "navy stands ready to make enemies taste the bitterness of new defeats"

Hormuz Chaos, Lebanon Clashes Undermine Trump Peace Deal Hopes - Yahoo Finance

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More than a day into the cease-fire in Lebanon, the Israeli military said it has continued to fire on militants who approached Israeli military lines, saying they are in violation of the truce. Israel has also continued carrying out artillery fire and demolitions

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

In a Truth Social post Trump prophetically rechristened it "the Strait of Iran". That at least must have pleased the Iranians.

Trump on Truth Social:

Quote

ANYONE SICK OF WINNING YET?

Truth Details | Truth Social

He also posted a video saying he's the world's best grandpa and re-"truthed" Hannity quoting someone claiming that "European leaders are trying to take credit for what's happening in Iran".

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 18 April 2026 - 02:21 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

"They got a little cute, as they have been doing for 47 years," [Trump] told reporters in the Oval Office after signing an executive order on easing federal restrictions on psychedelics. "It's going actually along very well [...]"

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

lol

[edit: to be clear, by "they" he meant Iran]

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 18 April 2026 - 05:18 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

The United States has started its worldwide piracy program. Seizing vessels linked to Iran.

I suspect that if a deal isn't reached soon the United States may launch a series of major cyberattacks against Iran using Mythos. After reviewing Anthropic's past statements it seems they're actually okay with the US military using their technology for offensive cyberwarfare against autocratic regimes. Though they'll probably refuse to attack civilian infrastructure (... and a federal judge would probably grant an injunction, but the Supreme Court would probably very quickly put a stay on the injunction (as usual) so Trump can just go ahead and do it). Mythos is already being used by the NSA and senior US government officials have been briefed on its offensive capabilities.