[Primateus]

Tsundoku, on 16 April 2024 - 12:28 PM, said:

Primateus, on 16 April 2024 - 12:12 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 15 April 2024 - 11:20 PM, said:

I feel like the whole deal was just a show. I'm pretty sure Iran knew they wouldn't hit anything but just wanted to show that they are willing to commit resources against Israel. I think if it had been a real attack they would have hurt people and that would mean a war that everyone is hoping to avoid.

Remember Comical Ali, Saddam's information minister during the invasion of Iraq?

He said the most ridiculous shit that we all laughed at. Truth was, though, he wasn't talking to us, he was talking to Saddam's party loyalists and people.

I'm thinking the same is true here. I don't think the Iranian leadership is so dumb they actually think anyone in Israel, or the "West" in general is really intimidated or anything by this.

No, it's probably more a signal to their own people. An internal show of strength.

Like most of China's actions aren't for our consumption, but their own people.

Pretty much, yes.

[HoosierDaddy]

Primateus, on 16 April 2024 - 03:25 PM, said:

Tsundoku, on 16 April 2024 - 12:28 PM, said:

Primateus, on 16 April 2024 - 12:12 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 15 April 2024 - 11:20 PM, said:

I feel like the whole deal was just a show. I'm pretty sure Iran knew they wouldn't hit anything but just wanted to show that they are willing to commit resources against Israel. I think if it had been a real attack they would have hurt people and that would mean a war that everyone is hoping to avoid.

Remember Comical Ali, Saddam's information minister during the invasion of Iraq?

He said the most ridiculous shit that we all laughed at. Truth was, though, he wasn't talking to us, he was talking to Saddam's party loyalists and people.

I'm thinking the same is true here. I don't think the Iranian leadership is so dumb they actually think anyone in Israel, or the "West" in general is really intimidated or anything by this.

No, it's probably more a signal to their own people. An internal show of strength.

Like most of China's actions aren't for our consumption, but their own people.

Pretty much, yes.

And as an aside: It works. Very well.

FYI, I just got back from China (there about 20 days). My wife grew up in China til she was 8, and her parents moved to the US with her and they all naturalized here about 30 years ago. Her parents are still very Chinese. Like, they Satellite in Chinese television to their house here in the States, and its the only TV they have in their house. Her entire family still lives in China (we were visiting them to celebrate our wedding and have a Chinese tea ceremony).

They absolutely believe all that stuff that the Chinese stations sell. They use imminent war with the US (most specifically) as the starting point for anything international. The threat is always there of war and that's why China does X, Y, and Z: to protect from the west and the US.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

direct war between Israel and Iran could cause oil prices to spike to over $150 and cause a global recession. The S&P 500 could drop by 20-30% similarly to the 1974 situation.

S&P 500: Geopolitical Tension Could Cause Oil To Go Over $150 And Cause A Global Recession | Seeking Alpha

Hopefully that will be enough to motivate Slow Biden to actually do something efficacious to stop Israel from escalating... at least before all of the votes are cast.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 16 April 2024 - 05:10 PM

[Werthead]

Israel's current response plan seems to be to get the UK, France and other countries still trying to revive the nuclear deal to drop it and reimpose all the sanctions they dropped on Iran's nuclear programme back in 2016. That would be a very big win for Israel. If they comply, Israel will limit its response to a series of attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and will not hit Iran directly.

This seems to be the preferred plan floated by Netanyahu, over the ultra-hardliners in their camp who want to completely destroy Iran's military in response, or at least take out their nuclear and missile programmes. The US, which already dropped the nuclear deal under Trump and hasn't rushed to reinstate it under Biden, already seems on board and is floating a big package of new sanctions later this week.

This sounds weaksauce, but the Iranian economy is fairly exposed to sanctions, with current rampant inflation of 40% being caused by lack of access to global markets due to the existing US sanctions regime. Europe beefing that up considerably will cause real issues for Iran's economy and none of its other partners, especially Russia, can really bail it out.

This plan isn't final and it sounds like the hardliner argument that Iran went all-out in its attack and achieved Jack S is becoming more accepted in Jerusalem, with the implication that if Israel hit them hard, they wouldn't be able to do much back in return. Other analysts are considerably less sanguine about that, citing Hezbollah's short-range missile arsenal as capable of causing immense damage in the north. There's also real concern about Iranian ground forces (which are not degraded at all at the moment and considerably unlikely to be in Israeli air strikes) rolling across Iraq into Syria to threaten Israel. However, without good air cover - Iran's air force is poor - or good AA defences - Iran's antiair network is pretty crap and Russian attempts to upgrade it with systems that can't handle Ukrainian drones or missiles most of the time are not going to be giving Tehran huge confidence - such a force would be pummelled into oblivion from the sky.

If this wasn't Iran's best shot and it could fire many more missiles much more quickly, then things could get very existential very quickly (faced with hundreds of incoming missiles with not enough air defence to deal with them, Netanyahu might feel the need to flip the switch marked "JERICHO 3" and we wake up the next day in an incredibly different world to the one we went to sleep in).

This post has been edited by Werthead: 16 April 2024 - 08:59 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 16 April 2024 - 08:57 PM, said:

Israel's current response plan seems to be to get the UK, France and other countries still trying to revive the nuclear deal to drop it and reimpose all the sanctions they dropped on Iran's nuclear programme back in 2016. That would be a very big win for Israel. If they comply, Israel will limit its response to a series of attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and will not hit Iran directly.

This seems to be the preferred plan floated by Netanyahu, over the ultra-hardliners in their camp who want to completely destroy Iran's military in response, or at least take out their nuclear and missile programmes. The US, which already dropped the nuclear deal under Trump and hasn't rushed to reinstate it under Biden, already seems on board and is floating a big package of new sanctions later this week.

This sounds weaksauce, but the Iranian economy is fairly exposed to sanctions, with current rampant inflation of 40% being caused by lack of access to global markets due to the existing US sanctions regime. Europe beefing that up considerably will cause real issues for Iran's economy and none of its other partners, especially Russia, can really bail it out.

This plan isn't final and it sounds like the hardliner argument that Iran went all-out in its attack and achieved Jack S is becoming more accepted in Jerusalem, with the implication that if Israel hit them hard, they wouldn't be able to do much back in return. Other analysts are considerably less sanguine about that, citing Hezbollah's short-range missile arsenal as capable of causing immense damage in the north. There's also real concern about Iranian ground forces (which are not degraded at all at the moment and considerably unlikely to be in Israeli air strikes) rolling across Iraq into Syria to threaten Israel. However, without good air cover - Iran's air force is poor - or good AA defences - Iran's antiair network is pretty crap and Russian attempts to upgrade it with systems that can't handle Ukrainian drones or missiles most of the time are not going to be giving Tehran huge confidence - such a force would be pummelled into oblivion from the sky.

If this wasn't Iran's best shot and it could fire many more missiles much more quickly, then things could get very existential very quickly (faced with hundreds of incoming missiles with not enough air defence to deal with them, Netanyahu might feel the need to flip the switch marked "JERICHO 3" and we wake up the next day in an incredibly different world to the one we went to sleep in).

If Israel responded to a conventional (but massive) Iranian bombardment with attempted nuclear annihilation, what would the... fall-out... be?

Of course the countries that neighbor Iran would not be very happy... about the radiation at least.

[Werthead]

Azath Vitr (D, on 16 April 2024 - 09:04 PM, said:

If Israel responded to a conventional (but massive) Iranian bombardment with attempted nuclear annihilation, what would the... fall-out... be?

Of course the countries that neighbor Iran would not be very happy... about the radiation at least.

It would be hard to gauge the full impact. It depends on how big the Iranian attack was, if it was genuinely huge enough and if there's evidence of WMD involvement, maybe it would be better tolerated. If it was seen as an unnecessary reaction by Israel, then Israel would turn into an utter pariah state, probably with global demands to give up its nuclear arsenal immediately.

But the economic, ecological and human damage would be incalculable, the size of the refugee crisis engendered (and Iran's neighbours aren't exactly best-placed to deal with that), would be unprecedented in human history. The current estimate is that an Iran-Israel war that closed the Straits of Hormuz would almost immediately trigger a global recession.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 17 April 2024 - 05:39 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 17 April 2024 - 05:37 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 16 April 2024 - 09:04 PM, said:

If Israel responded to a conventional (but massive) Iranian bombardment with attempted nuclear annihilation, what would the... fall-out... be?

Of course the countries that neighbor Iran would not be very happy... about the radiation at least.

It would be hard to gauge the full impact. It depends on how big the Iranian attack was, if it was genuinely huge enough and if there's evidence of WMD involvement, maybe it would be better tolerated. If it was seen as an unnecessary reaction by Israel, then Israel would turn into an utter pariah state, probably with global demands to give up its nuclear arsenal immediately.

But the economic, ecological and human damage would be incalculable, the size of the refugee crisis engendered (and Iran's neighbours aren't exactly best-placed to deal with that), would be unprecedented in human history. The current estimate is that an Iran-Israel war that closed the Straits of Hormuz would almost immediately trigger a global recession.

Some right-wing politicians in the US---and possibly Europe and India too, given how politically ascendant---and how mainstream---the Islamophobic far (now not so "far"?) right has become in both---would actually be supportive of Israel in the wake of a massive nuclear assault on Iran. (At least two US congresspeople have said Israel should nuke Gaza iirc. Hopefully they were just trolling... but IDK, they might really be that dumb. Canada, watch out!) Trump would probably be okay with Israeli nuclear annihilation of Iran... if Iran weren't allied with Putin (and supplying him with drones, etc.).

[Nicodimas]

Israel struck Iran...and other locations sounds like they hit the nuclear.factilites...more. to come

[Nicodimas]

https://www.aljazeer...-isfahan-report

Trying to find good sources.. seems legit

[Whisperzzzzzzz]

Nicodimas, on 19 April 2024 - 02:10 AM, said:

Israel struck Iran...and other locations sounds like they hit the nuclear.factilites...more. to come

Great, these countries are run by bunches of sociopaths on all sides.

[HoosierDaddy]

Reads to me like everyone is taking this as deescalation.

Unless there are further actions from Israel, seems Iran is taking the off-ramp and Israel is settling for a pro-forma retaliation with no real escalation either.

I watched an interesting video on Game Theory the other day, and this sort of Prisoner's Dilema situation. Tit for Tat is the highest scoring "winning" theory in this scenario for all parties, and this is exactly that from what I'm seeing and its working as intended.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

"The degree of Netanyahu's contempt for Biden is hard to overstate," [...]

"Israel's [...] attack [...] was carried out in a manner that will allow Iran to deny the [significance of the] attack and draw a line under it."

Bibi Just Flat Out Ignored Biden's Warning Not to Bomb Iran (thedailybeast.com)

Quote

Iran's tightly controlled state media made fun of Israel's [...] attack [...] claiming that a few drones had been intercepted and no serious damage was done—with a top Israeli minister appearing to agree. [...]

Iran's regime-friendly media suggests that Tehran is keen to downplay the attack. [...] senior Iranian official saying there was no immediate plan for retaliation

Iran's State TV Laughs Off Israel's 'Feeble' Reprisal Attack (thedailybeast.com)

... of course, the Iranian government could be pretending that they won't retaliate to make it easier for them to retaliate... but that seems unlikely.

If the Israeli government wants to nuke Iran and Trump is president, they might be able to make a deal: allying with Putin, agreeing to provide him with more drones etc. than Iran had been, in exchange for Trump's support. And of course they'd probably also have to pay Trump off more directly... at the very least by investing in DJT ("Truth Social") stock.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 19 April 2024 - 03:53 PM

[Werthead]

The attack was so limited that Iran seemed embarrassed by the idea of retaliating against it, which is amusing.

However, the attacking drones/missiles (nobody is clear on what they were) sailed passed Iran's antique AA systems (#buyrussian) and were only intercepted apparently quite close to their potential targets (Isfahan airbase or the nearby nuclear sites), possibly because Israel had them loitering rather than proceeding directly to the target.

If deliberate, that's a genuinely subtle use of military power by Israel, a sentence I did not think I'd be typing.

ETA: Some analysis now that Israel was targeting the early warning detection radar in Isfahan which is tasked with picking up incoming missiles aimed at the Natanz nuclear facility. Unofficial US analysis is that the radar system was completely destroyed through three direct hits from air-launched cruise missiles (so, no loitering then). Iran's AA systems failed to engage until the missiles were practically on top of the target.

I've seen some speculation that the missiles were launched from inside Iran's radar detection net by an F-35, which would confirm the long-circulating rumour that Iran's Russia-bought S-300 and S-400s cannot see or lock onto F-35s in flight. But that's very speculative. It would make more sense to launch them from well outside Iran's radar.

That's a lot of messaging to the Iranian regime in one strike, and of course the worry that Israel deliberately took out the radar to deliberately take out Natanz itself in a follow-up strike. That would be extremely dangerous, with an unknown capacity for nuclear contamination of the surrounding area (with Isfahan just to the south and Tehran not far to the north).

This post has been edited by Werthead: 19 April 2024 - 07:53 PM

[Werthead]

Interesting analysis in the New York Times (paywalled so I won't bother linking it) that Israel's actions show a shift in the geopolitical makeup of the region.

Israel is no longer acting as a lone voice surrounded by hostile opponents, but more as part of a broad coalition which is bitterly opposed to Iranian interests. That coalition includes Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, most of the Gulf states and strong elements inside Syria and Iraq (much weaker ones in Lebanon), with neutral-semi-sympathy from a bunch of other places (Türkiye and Pakistan, even the Taliban in Afghanistan to a point), all of whom dislike and distrust Iran and its government with some level of intensity (from geopolitical viewpoints and also religious ones, with Iran being a lone Shia powerhouse in a Sunni-dominated region). This coalition was supposed to have collapsed after Israel's response to October 7th, with all of these countries loudly condemning Israel's bombardment of Gaza and its killing of 34,000 Palestinians (at least 24,000 of whom were civilians), and rallying behind Iran and its Houthi and Hezbollah proxies' "Axis of Resistance."

Instead, this and other events have shown that the anti-Iranian coalition is holding firm even in the face of Israel's actions in Gaza, which is very unexpected. That fact - which saw Jordanian jets and AA systems effectively coming to Israel's defence despite King Abdullah II's fierce criticisms of Israeli actions in Gaza, and technical and intelligence assistance from Egypt and Saudi Arabia - seems to have surprised Iran and possibly forced a reconsideration of further escalation: Iran vs. Israel is one thing, even Iran vs. Israel and the United States is another, but Iran vs. the entire Arab world plus the USA and Israel is quite a different matter, with no prospect of victory.

This may explain why Israel's response to Iranian attack was measured but limited, reportedly undertaken after discussions with Jordan, and why Iran has dialled the heat right back down and has pivoted the PR machine back to continuing Israeli military activity in Gaza and its plans for an attack on Rafah which would no doubt cause mass casualties.

Unfortunately, this has likely increased Israel's confidence it can carry on in Gaza, as even these eye-watering casualties have not fully dented its relationships with other Arab countries. Saudi Arabia has even said it's peace deal with Israel is still on the cards and has only been paused for the duration of the conflict (although it has indicated that full normalisation depends on the recognition of a Palestinian state, but certainly it can take intermediate steps before then).

It also shows a wide gulf between many Arab governments and the Arab street, which in itself could become concerning if public opinion continues to mount against the governments, to the point of demanding change to deal more forcefully with Israel.

Relatedly, US satellite photos now show that the radar control system for Isfahan's S-300/400 defence complex has been levelled. The Israeli attack did succeed in destroying the facility as claimed.

[Lady Bliss]

@Werthead how do you know so much world politics?

[Werthead]

Lady Bliss, on 23 April 2024 - 11:14 PM, said:

@Werthead how do you know so much world politics?

I studied political history and world events at college almost thirty years ago and have kept my hands in ever since. Back then it was the Chechen War, the war in the Balkans and Clinton's impeachment.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 24 April 2024 - 07:08 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 23 April 2024 - 11:14 PM, said:

@Werthead how do you know so much world politics?

I'm Batman

FTFY

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Abyss, on 24 April 2024 - 08:12 PM, said:

Werthead, on 24 April 2024 - 07:08 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 23 April 2024 - 11:14 PM, said:

@Werthead how do you know so much world politics?

I'm Batman

FTFY

So if Werthead is Batman... and Donald Trump is Batman... then he knows so much world politics because he's Donald Trump? Oh if only... (or rather: we're probably better off that Trump doesn't---or at least the world is...)

[Lady Bliss]

Infuriated by the fact that Freedom of Speech apparently no longer exists in the US after what appears to be peaceful protests are being called antisemitism. I’m afraid to post free Palestine and ceasefire on Facebook for fear of being called antisemitic.

[the broken]

You know, I was actually kind of impressed by how this happened (note: this may age poorly). The people in Iran and Israel knew how to make their point without raising the stakes too high, and accordingly, we're not in WW3 yet.