re: osseric's posts since showing up are not empty like his previous ones, and he's not voting somewhere that doesn't make sense anymore. i still don't have good explanation for his not voting Thyr but he hasn't pinged the scumdar since then.
--
ok it is conspiracy theory time.
for a moment I am ignoring/including previous cases and this is mostly from the ground up. this is some crazy shit i have to drop and yes I might be crazy, but nothing else in this game makes sense to me except....the word "
Thyrllan"
there are exactly 3 scum alive right now (1 dead) who consistently misspell the word "Thyrllan" - but only when talking to each other (almost always by quoting). other times they spell it right, or shorten to Thyr (always correctly). also, "Venesara" is misspelled, but I think to mark as a target. "Thyrllan" was for on-thread identification. let us see.
Thyrllan
Kalse
Aranatha
Okaros
hi scum. my best guess is that thyr and okaros are the killers, kalse and aranatha the symps. knowledge must be limited, or else they would not bother doing all this stuff on thread.
couple notes....around post #500 everyone disappears for several pages, then catch up to now, not much is said. okaros arrives quite late into the game, past post #200, so he has less interaction but he still picks it up.
disclaimer: I've given Gait a pass in case you wonder because autocorrect is changing his spelling to "Thyrllen" every time, which no one else uses but Gait *always* does - even in the edit, autocorrect wouldn't spell it right. he doesn't play the quoting/spelling game either.
the other thing is that no one else does this. no one mispells "Thyr" ever, and "Thyrllan" is spelled right almost every time by everyone else - when it's not, it flows quite well with the other mistakes in the post and there is no consistency with the error. but our four fun friends spell everything else correctly, and are very consistent about misspelling.
i realize I cannot make a coherent post in chronological order so I have to just copy pasta my notes with references to post numbers. I will quote to illustrate, but it's all there. i'm about to lose it so here we go....
whoops...can't have votes on Thyr...quotes P-S and preserves the edit
Kalse, on 13 May 2020 - 07:34 AM, said:
Path-Shaper, on 13 May 2020 - 07:19 AM, said:
It is day 1. About 13 hours and a half remaining.
21 people left alive.
1 votes Thyrllan; Skintick
1 vote Tennes; Aranatha
3 votes Okral Lom; Rikkter, Skintick, Kalse
1 vote Skintick; Sheltatha Lore
Skintick has two votes there?
--kalse
#59 - votes Gait, first to mention symp-signaling explicitly
#127 - "symp cases"
#132 - panic about skintick have a vote on thyr - messed up by quoting PS, who edits
#178 - "average" Thyr image of posts - no okaros
#180 - quotes ven (#179) - nonsense reply
#181 - "fishing" - (cf. #276 from Thyr)
#238 - calls out okaros and low posters - chicken/wolf metaphor
#251 - calls out venesara - bolds knew/know - mentions finder with no caps.
#252 - vote Venesara after kilava
#312 - quotes okaros about "signalling" - Okaros vote "informative" - also pairs thyr/ven misspells their names after x4 correct
#315 - quotes aranatha voting barg over thyr, mispells as Thyrlann - quotes post from ara using "Thyrrlan" - "I repeated you" - kalse never says this - votes are always spelled right, 2 L's - Ara swaps for 2 R's, Kalse for 2 N's
#334 - miscounts votes for Thyr, spells correctly, and likes his vote on Ven and would switch to Thyr but prefers Hanas
#375 - jumps on Thyr train from Ven after Tennes, then Kilava - again "would have prefered Hanas"
#463 - Says skintick, jalan, barg, gait are inno - probably true - arantha agrees and speculates #464
#465 - quotes aranatha, Spells as "Thyrlann" - signalling
#466 - quotes okaros, first post that misspells "Venaras" several times (target)
#473 - xpost with aranatha calling out shelly - kalse says symp, ara says killer (Thyrllan spelled correctly)
#474 - xpost comment - arantha gets chummy
#595 - "Thyrlann"
Okaros, on 17 May 2020 - 10:13 AM, said:
I find it amusing that Aranatha and Shel are both screaming EXPLAIN YOUR CASE!!! at each other. Other than that I find myself skimming over their posts, so the exchange has been pretty good at totally muddying the thread. I'm going to attempt a read of Thyr's posts and interactions today, as well as a couple of other people. I think it's pretty clear that Skintick was killed because scum suspected him of being a finder after voting for Thyrrlan.
--okaros
#240 - arrival
#260 - quote Kalse, agree, vote Venesara - mentions signalling - says "about their target Tennes - it was Tennes, right?"
#261 - quotes Ven quoting Kalse (agrees)
#427 - "I wouldn't switch to Thyr" - scumdar needs rewriting (cf. #101 --aranatha)
#467 - okaros quotes kalse, mentions scum, mentions Thyr
#571 - misspells "Thyrrlan" x2 (also spells as Thyr same post)
#573 x2 - spells as Thyr - no quotes
#576 x4 - edited for misspelling - "Thyrllan" - no quotes - deliberately tries to brush off as spelling error
#577 x4 - spells as Thyr
makes contact with symp. thyr doesn't quote or talk to aranatha or okaros on his posting spree.
Thyrllan, on 14 May 2020 - 09:31 PM, said:
Kalse, on 13 May 2020 - 06:14 AM, said:
The problem with symp cases is that they can be true, but it makes it hard to be sure why they start stirring things (and who exactly they try to deflect from), but also they are a symp best tool, big cases, lots of discussions and quoting, all that not to put a vote since the person in the case is not the one we want lynched (or if we do we won't know whether the case was true).
Still, I'm not complaining, this info being out there can be useful later in the game!
I have never been a huge fan of symp cases for this reason. The speculation is nearly pointless early-game. It might help late game but it also just becomes tons of noise.
--thyrllan
#88 - missing venesara (misses mentioning okaros)
#89 - tennes - and Okaros
#94 - comments on missing okaros
#275 - returns
#276 - says "(fishing?)" about tennes
#278 - quotes Kalse about symp cases
#287 - mentions signaling between merrid/goul
#288 - quotes a nothing post by kalse about okaros
#292 - quotes ven quoting shel voting Okaros - mocks logic
#294 - says "Venes"
#295 - quotes tennes agrees - mentions kalse no heat
#297 - votes fandy, says tennes not so scummy
things
Kalse, on 15 May 2020 - 05:47 AM, said:
I hate fake narratives and that day 1 derailment from Thyr is one of them. The two voters, Skintick and Shelly, removed their votes before anything else serious happened, and Skintick putting the second vote on Okral. I'm not the first one who commented on that
I mention it because looking at this:
I put my vote on Venesara, second indeed but no offense to Kilava the first with a coherent explanation.
Then 10 minutes later:
Okaros, on 14 May 2020 - 05:12 PM, said:
<snip the quotes>
Yes, this stood out to me as well. Finished my reread and so having just read Venesara question Okral's vote on Merrid, them then saying that they had their eye on Merrid looks very weird. I'm going to
Vote Venesara
for now.
By the way, I'm impressed by the amount of actual game discussion that got done on day 1, even if it all turns out to be rubbish! Other things I noted: Aranatha seems more like an eager town with a particular style, but nothing particularly stood out to me about their target Tennes either (it was Tennes, right? I'm already forgetting). All the signalling stuff was stupid. But I did half-suspect that Okral would turn out to be scum as I read through their replies, so I would have probably voted that way too.
Back to pushing the other way!
Plus, just a couple of hours in the day and this already strongly limited the options for the lynch with two fat targets. If one of Thyrlann or Venesara is scum, then one of these two votes (Jalan or Okaros) will be quite informative.
--aranatha
#53 - quotes skintick's vote on Thyr, deflection
#101 - day 1 - "if tennes isn't scum I quit mafia" - "over analyzing word choices claiming symp"- (cf. #427 --okaros)
#102 - votes tennes
#106 - voting based on gut feeling of tennes not feeling authentic
#112 - defending tennes vote - defensive "I have no reason to deflect anything - Tennes just seems scummy" - says his "reasoning is solid" after going with gut - keeps asking to be convinced to switch
#124 - overreacts to shelly
#164 - votes Okral and backs off both shelly and tennes
#119 - lols @ being the symp - OMGUS back to Tennes as symp voting randomly, no vote
#235 - total randomness, BACK TO Tennes
#311 - votes barg instead of thyr (remove from tennes) - "Thyrrlan" - spelling - x3
#381 - votes Thyr, now L-1, misspells "Thyrrlan"
#393 - says scum probably didn't vote for Thyr - (Tennes on train - Kalse + Aranatha on train, Okaros voting Ven)
#407 - "easer to find a scum off the train than on it"
#414 - spells "Thyrllan" correctly
(#425) - shelly quotes #311 - "doesn't age well" - bad defence of thyr...
#443 - good spelling - "reveal"
#457 - scum lynch was luck - "scum would exercise distancing" - speculating on own role...
#461, #462 - asked about interacting with thyr = scum, deflects
#472 - votes shelly
#479 - wonders how many scum are in the game
#489 - repeat bullshit filler about scum - "you're definitely not playing on my team"
#499 - "scum are watching"
#605 - votes tennes - misspells as "Tyrllan" - no quotes - scum talk scum talk role scum
#613 - edits to add an "a" in apologize...really? after misspelling Thyrllan in different ways for so long?
more
Kalse, on 15 May 2020 - 06:24 AM, said:
Aranatha, on 15 May 2020 - 04:21 AM, said:
A usual Tennes is full of shit and Sheltatha apparently loves him. Get a room you two already.
It seems
Thyrrlan have become active, which people have been jumping down his throat for. I don't see any of you geniuses making any genius posts, so what's so different about
Thyrrlan all of a sudden? I'm genuinely curious.
However the derailed
Thyrrlan train insight has merit, however I'm not convinced that's isn't just a coincidence.
<snip>
Wtf even is this post:
Barghast, on 14 May 2020 - 11:01 PM, said:
vote Thyrllan
for now
What has been said, and because I consider it a better alternative to Venesara or any other current votes and don't see much use casting a new vote, though at this point I'd be satisfied with a vote for Gait too
"It was Nothing. And it got bigger and bigger."
WHY is it a better alternative than Venesara? And wtf why would you not want to cast a new vote? Just trying to get town killed as fast as possible, are you? Why do you suspect Gait? Will we ever find out?
So scummy man, so so scummy.
Vote Barghast
Hmm, I was caught in trying to process the Venesara-
Thyrlann thing trying to see when it became all about those two, I just now realize I more or less repeated what you wrote about Barghast's post.
thyr misses okaros from the list, kalse even puts an image up at one point. blatant
Thyrllan, on 12 May 2020 - 07:01 PM, said:
Path-Shaper, on 11 May 2020 - 08:36 PM, said:
Here it is ladies and gentlemen. The first game of 2020. I hope the first of many more. Please enjoy.
It is day one: 48 hours remaining.
<snip>
Looks like the only person we're missing is Venesara.
Tennes, on 12 May 2020 - 05:20 PM, said:
Good catch. I was looking at the list of who had posted in the thread and counted EmperorMagus.
talking to aranatha
Kalse, on 16 May 2020 - 07:21 AM, said:
OK, I noticed two things in re-reading the end of day:
First is this trio of posts:
Aranatha, on 15 May 2020 - 08:28 PM, said:
There's some really interesting divides going on about who is scummy or not, and that should give us some valuable information as to who is who once we get a lynch result. I'm really not excited about being on the same train as Tennes and gang, but Thyrrlan seems to be the only lynch option. Should be interesting to see who votes for him and who doesn't. Might aswell rip off the band aid.
remove vote
Vote Thyrllan
Edited: just to add the bold
Aranatha, on 15 May 2020 - 09:23 PM, said:
I told yah we would get some good information out of this, but oh man I'm so happy right now, I didn't expect us to hit a scum this early!
Aranatha, on 15 May 2020 - 09:31 PM, said:
What's the likelihood that their scum friends voted for him? Not very high, so we should probably start looking closely at anyone that voted for someone else, or didn't vote. So much more to go on now than before.
I mean, read all this with "The Room"-level acting skills and it's almost too on the nose. Then again, killers usually try to stay average and
Thyrlann actually had some posts where he was writing about how average he was.
no one has missed the "h" so far all game
Aranatha, on 18 May 2020 - 07:54 PM, said:
I have to say, I think rikkter's case on tennes is weird but also on point in places albeit a bit wordy and partly reactive, however it's aided by the fact that Sheltatha is once again being tennes giant knight in shining armor - even going so far as to 'subtly' distancing himself from tennes.
That said, I agree that the sudden acitivty from Rikkter is also suspect in a sense. My thinking right now is that it's possible that Shel is tennes symp - unless they've just been playing recklessly and is town after all?
Some of the other's reactions are confusing to me. I have no idea what Kalse is on about, and his vote doesn't make any kind of sense, seems like a throw away vote to me. Fanderay voting for Rikkter is something of a red flag to me, since I think it's a possibility that Tyrllan was distancing himself from Fande before he was lynched. Shel is whining about people attacking his master as usual.
<BIG SNIP>
Also tennes is recorded as having voted twice - which is clearly wrong. Fix it PS.
okaros participates
Okaros, on 18 May 2020 - 09:53 AM, said:
I too was a bit confused when Tennes, after posting a bunch of reasoned suspicions about others, went and put a vote on Thyrrlan instead. Afterwards, I mostly discounted it because Tennes' was the swing vote which turned the tide inexorably on to Thyrrlan - before that, I wouldn't say it was certain that Thyr was going to be lynched. Still, if you're going to help lynch fellow scum, that's ideally where you'd want to be on the train.
love this one
Okaros, on 18 May 2020 - 10:57 AM, said:
Kilava may have been the real swing that sealed the Thyrllan lynch - they removed from Venesara to vote Thyrllan. The thing that apparently convinced them was what they saw as Osseric's suspicious hesitancy to vote for Thyrllan - so I'd be interested to know what Kilava thinks of Osseric now. I had a look through Osseric's posts myself and there isn't much to go on there - a lot of chat (in a few sentences) that makes them seem careful and considerate, stuff about how mafia games work, and a slight run-in with Sheltatha. Very much a softly softly approach that doesn't give much away. Talks about carefully weighing up all the interactions which Thyrllan had but doesn't seem like they've done that yet themselves.
Edit: misspelled ThyrLLan.
so, to follow through,
vote okaros
EPIC WALL OF EPICNESSSSSS