[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'A Negative COVID Test Has Never Been So Meaningless

A string of negatives can still presage a clear-as-day positive.

[...] since around the rise of Omicron, the problem of delayed positivity has gained some prominence. In recent months, many people have logged strings of negatives—three, four, even five or more days in a row—early in their COVID-symptom course. "I think it's become more common," says Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease physician at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

No one can yet say how common these early negatives are, or who's most at risk. But if SARS-CoV-2 is rewriting the early-infection playbook, "that makes it really scary," [...] "You can't test and get a negative and actually know you're negative." Misleading negatives could hasten the spread of the virus; they could delay treatments premised on a positive test result.

[...] Any member of the Omicron cohort is "just a different beast," [...] may not accumulate to the densities that Delta did in the nose, which could make false negatives more likely. A couple of studies have also found that Omicron may, in some people, be detected in the mouth or throat before the nostrils.

In practice, "it's really hard to separate if all of this is a property of the virus, or a property of the immune system, or both," [...] Omicron [...] seems to more often prompt sneezier, head-cold-esque symptoms than those that came before it, and less often causes loss of taste and smell. And, on average, people infected in recent surges have been showing symptoms three days after exposure, far faster than the incubation period of five or six days that was the norm in the pandemic's early days. But those patterns could be attributable to either the peculiarities of the Omicron clan, or how much more immune the average Omicron host is.

[...] Positives are still reliable [...] "If you're turning symptomatic, assume you're infectious," Grad told me—with something, even if it turns out not to be SARS-CoV-2. "People forget that, baked into all the recommendations, is that as soon as you turn symptomatic, you're supposed to be behaving differently," [...] "A negative test shouldn't be a pass to go out."

[...] Butler-Wu, the USC clinical microbiologist, recently advised a friend who had received more than half a dozen negative test results—antigen and PCR—that her respiratory illness probably wasn't COVID. The friend ended up visiting Butler-Wu, only to test positive shortly thereafter. "That really shook me," Butler-Wu told me. "It flew in the face of everything I knew from before." It was a reminder, she said, that the pandemic is still serving up plot twists.'

Your Negative COVID Test Is Basically Meaningless - The Atlantic

[Puck]

Mezla PigDog, on 03 July 2022 - 10:45 AM, said:

I'd go on symptoms, Puck. If you feel too sick to work, then don't. If you feel well enough then continue. You have tested negative, there isn't a lot more that you can do. In the UK there are a lot of people with symptoms who are testing negative - it could easily be another 'cold' virus. These people in my social circle are putting masks on and going about their business and hoping for the best but not visiting people they know are vulnerable until symptoms pass.

The pandemic 'vibe' and testing options lead us all to massively overthink every cold-like symptom.

I'd normally agree, but I've got almost the exact same symptoms in the same order as my mom when she had Covid earlier this year (and she got an official test done by our GP). I'm not sure I'm ok to work again, mostly I just don't want to risk spearing it in case I do have it. I know, with Omicron it's not that bad, but you never know who will react in what way. To be fair, I've still got the migraine going. I emailed my GP and will stay home tomorrow. If she tells me it's fine, I can go back to work on Tuesday.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Puck, on 03 July 2022 - 04:16 PM, said:

Mezla PigDog, on 03 July 2022 - 10:45 AM, said:

I'd go on symptoms, Puck. If you feel too sick to work, then don't. If you feel well enough then continue. You have tested negative, there isn't a lot more that you can do. In the UK there are a lot of people with symptoms who are testing negative - it could easily be another 'cold' virus. These people in my social circle are putting masks on and going about their business and hoping for the best but not visiting people they know are vulnerable until symptoms pass.

The pandemic 'vibe' and testing options lead us all to massively overthink every cold-like symptom.

I'd normally agree, but I've got almost the exact same symptoms in the same order as my mom when she had Covid earlier this year (and she got an official test done by our GP). I'm not sure I'm ok to work again, mostly I just don't want to risk spearing it in case I do have it. I know, with Omicron it's not that bad, but you never know who will react in what way. To be fair, I've still got the migraine going. I emailed my GP and will stay home tomorrow. If she tells me it's fine, I can go back to work on Tuesday.

Long Covid is still pretty terrible.

And 'BA.5 may also cause more severe illness than previous subvariants of omicron[...]

“Not only is BA.5 the most transmissible, it has the most immune invasion as well. So, you’re afforded not much protection from prior infection,”'

Omicron's BA.5 variant might threaten your July 4: How to stay safe

[Mezla PigDog]

Puck, on 03 July 2022 - 04:16 PM, said:

Mezla PigDog, on 03 July 2022 - 10:45 AM, said:

I'd go on symptoms, Puck. If you feel too sick to work, then don't. If you feel well enough then continue. You have tested negative, there isn't a lot more that you can do. In the UK there are a lot of people with symptoms who are testing negative - it could easily be another 'cold' virus. These people in my social circle are putting masks on and going about their business and hoping for the best but not visiting people they know are vulnerable until symptoms pass.

The pandemic 'vibe' and testing options lead us all to massively overthink every cold-like symptom.

I'd normally agree, but I've got almost the exact same symptoms in the same order as my mom when she had Covid earlier this year (and she got an official test done by our GP). I'm not sure I'm ok to work again, mostly I just don't want to risk spearing it in case I do have it. I know, with Omicron it's not that bad, but you never know who will react in what way. To be fair, I've still got the migraine going. I emailed my GP and will stay home tomorrow. If she tells me it's fine, I can go back to work on Tuesday.

Yeah I'm not saying you don't have it. You just don't know that you DO have it. Tests are imperfect and there are many things that can cause respiratory symptoms. I don't think there is a right thing to do anymore unless you are sure you have it.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'So I'm on the front lines of one of the busiest hospitals on the planet & Delta was wrecking us in Nov '21 when Omicron BA.1 showed up in Dec & said hold my beer & obliterated us but mutated & now super infectious BA.5 which infects lungs is taking over but BA.2.75 may be worse.'

(20) David Christopher

'First BA.2.75 in USA'

(20) Pandemic News on Twitter: "Here we go 💥 First BA.2.75 in USA H/T @RajlabN https://t.co/XC8VtyvDIl" / Twitter

'ᴛʜᴏꜱᴇ ᴘᴇꜱᴋʏ ᴛ ᴄᴇʟʟꜱ

@PeskyTCells

Let's clarify
BA.2.75 is more infectious than BA.5 by a margin

With 95% confidence, we are sure that it is between 2 and 19 times more transmissible [196%-1800%]

Best guess is 10x more infectious, but the number of sequences is still small.'

(20) ᴛʜᴏꜱᴇ ᴘᴇꜱᴋʏ ᴛ ᴄᴇʟʟꜱ

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'California’s COVID levels appear as high as ever: "The sewage never lies"

[...] concentration of COVID-19 in the wastewater in areas of Northern California such as Davis and western San Francisco have this June exceeded the levels they were in the original omicron surge that occurred in January[...]

In Sacramento, the numbers are slightly milder, with wastewater COVID-19 levels peaking this June at just over half of what they were in January. This wastewater analysis stands in stark contrast to metrics often cited when measuring virus spread[...] Looking at case rates reported by the California Department of Public Health, it seems that Sacramento County’s June surge was only 17% of what it saw in January. Yolo County and San Francisco — both of which, according to wastewater analysis, have seen COVID spread at just as high or higher levels as January — reported case rates peak this month at just 20% and 23% of the January surge, respectively. But public health officials agree that sewage, rather than testing numbers, is telling the true story of the state of COVID-19.

[...] The discrepancy between the sewage and the case rates can be attributed to a significant drop in COVID-19 testing statewide. California reports case rates based on PCR test results, and as more residents opt to take at-home rapid tests or forego testing entirely, that number becomes less reflective of the virus’s spread.'

https://www.sacbee.c...l#storylink=cpy

Making at-home test more widely available but not requiring them to be reported has refined Trump's 'genius' plan to lower case counts by not testing---make it seem like testing (crappy antigen tests at least) is more accessible, but count on good old fashioned American laziness or governmental corruption/incompetence not to report the results for the official count.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'A Clunky Mask May Be the Answer to Airborne Disease and N95 Waste

Experts say [...] U.S. government [...] failing to promote elastomeric respirators[...]

[...] the gold standard for infection-control specialists focused on the dangers of airborne pathogens.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention promoted them during the SARS outbreak of 2003 and the swine flu pandemic of 2009. A few studies since then have suggested that reusable elastomeric respirators should be essential gear for frontline medical workers during a respiratory pandemic, which experts predicted would quickly deplete supplies of N95s, the disposable filtration masks largely made in China.

But when the coronavirus swept the globe and China cut off exports of N95s, elastomeric respirators were nowhere to be found in a vast majority of hospitals and health clinics in the United States. [...]

Three years into the pandemic, elastomeric respirators remain a rarity at American health care facilities. The C.D.C. has done little to promote the masks[...]

Most cost between $15 and $40 each, and the filters, which should be replaced at least once a year, run about $5 each. Made of soft silicone, the masks are comfortable to wear, according to health care worker surveys, and they have a shelf life of a decade or more.

[...] The government's tentative approach to elastomeric respirators during the pandemic has largely escaped public scrutiny, even as [...] health policy experts and nursing unions have been pressing federal officials to promote them more aggressively. The masks, they note, are an environmentally sustainable and cost-effective alternative to N95s. Worn properly, they offer better protection than N95s, which, as their name suggests, only filter out 95 percent of pathogens. Most elastomerics exceed 99 percent.

[...] epidemiologist who heads the Covid-19 task force at the World Health Network, criticized federal officials for inaction despite compelling evidence that elastomerics provide the highest level of protection against aerosolized viruses. "At a certain point, you need to act on the existing science, and the failure to do otherwise is a dereliction of duty," he said.

[...] federal health experts back the use elastomerics but say they are awaiting additional study results before offering full-throated support for their widespread adoption by medical personnel. Emily Haas, a scientist at the C.D.C.'s National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health [...] said researchers were still grappling with the need to regularly disinfect them and complaints about muffled communication, though some newer models make it easier for wearers to be heard.

The bigger challenge, she says, is convincing hospitals and group purchasing organizations to embrace the masks given the abundance of N95s, which offer comparable protection during routine medical care and can be thrown away after each use.

"There's been so much research in the last 10 years that has really supported elastomerics, so in some ways the issue right now is cultural," Dr. Haas said. "[...] introducing a whole new system of respiratory protection can be a heavy lift."

Experts say such obstacles could be overcome through more muscular federal leadership. Dr. Tom Frieden, who led an unsuccessful effort to fill the Strategic National Stockpile with elastomerics when he was C.D.C. director in 2009, said the advantages of providing them to frontline medical workers were clear, especially given the nation's ruinous overreliance on single-use masks. He said health authorities could promote elastomerics by highlighting their cost savings for hospitals and the environmental benefits of a reusable mask to help reduce the tsunami of N95s that end up in landfills. "To me, it's a puzzle why they haven't become more widespread," Dr. Frieden said.

[...] To deal with the need to disinfect the masks, he set up a system that allowed workers to drop them off after each shift so they could be cleaned before being made available to others.

"It was a real success story on our end because our staff had respirators to wear and they felt more reassured wearing elastomerics than wearing N95s," [...]

One of the only other hospital systems in the country to adopt the masks on a large scale was Allegheny Health Network of Western Pennsylvania, which early in the pandemic, distributed more than 8,000 respirators at its 14 hospitals. [...] A subsequent design tweak added a mechanical voice amplifier to help ease communication.

[...]

According to a paper he published in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons, none of the employees went back to wearing N95s. The cost benefit of relying almost entirely on elastomerics became irrefutable: Outfitting the workers was one-tenth as expensive than supplying them with disposable N95s. A separate study found that after one year, the filters were still 99 percent effective.'

A Clunky, Reusable Mask May Be the Answer to N95 Waste - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 04 July 2022 - 12:24 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Now add in the propulsion of the heat wave (expected to last at least another week), with government health officials advising people to stay indoors... though IDK how many people will be opening windows because they lack air conditioning (... or piling into air conditioned stores or shelters because they lack air conditioning... getting tightly packed and overflowing with covid...).

[Primateus]

The streak is over. More than two years in and I have finally succumbed to the virus.

It feels fucking awful is what it fucking feels like!

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

Primateus, on 18 July 2022 - 02:52 PM, said:

The streak is over. More than two years in and I have finally succumbed to the virus.

It feels fucking awful is what it fucking feels like!

It's finally got me for the first time too!

And I concur. I'm not horrendously ill, I'd say it's bad cold and cough territory, but I feel so ridiculously tired.

[QuickTidal]

TheRetiredBridgeburner, on 18 July 2022 - 04:24 PM, said:

Primateus, on 18 July 2022 - 02:52 PM, said:

The streak is over. More than two years in and I have finally succumbed to the virus.

It feels fucking awful is what it fucking feels like!

It's finally got me for the first time too!

And I concur. I'm not horrendously ill, I'd say it's bad cold and cough territory, but I feel so ridiculously tired.

Yeah, it sucks to have fended it off for so long, only to succumb.

For what it's worth, your energy will return, but it will likely be the last thing to go back to normal. I was weeks out of breath from it and tired.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 18 July 2022 - 04:29 PM, said:

TheRetiredBridgeburner, on 18 July 2022 - 04:24 PM, said:

Primateus, on 18 July 2022 - 02:52 PM, said:

The streak is over. More than two years in and I have finally succumbed to the virus.

It feels fucking awful is what it fucking feels like!

It's finally got me for the first time too!

And I concur. I'm not horrendously ill, I'd say it's bad cold and cough territory, but I feel so ridiculously tired.

Yeah, it sucks to have fended it off for so long, only to succumb.

For what it's worth, your energy will return, but it will likely be the last thing to go back to normal. I was weeks out of breath from it and tired.

Many people with long covid have not had their energy return to normal even years later (even if you don't count the ones who've died from having other health issues exacerbated---circulatory etc.). Apparently 75% of long covid cases come from mild infections....

[Primateus]

Azath Vitr (D, on 18 July 2022 - 05:00 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 18 July 2022 - 04:29 PM, said:

TheRetiredBridgeburner, on 18 July 2022 - 04:24 PM, said:

Primateus, on 18 July 2022 - 02:52 PM, said:

The streak is over. More than two years in and I have finally succumbed to the virus.

It feels fucking awful is what it fucking feels like!

It's finally got me for the first time too!

And I concur. I'm not horrendously ill, I'd say it's bad cold and cough territory, but I feel so ridiculously tired.

Yeah, it sucks to have fended it off for so long, only to succumb.

For what it's worth, your energy will return, but it will likely be the last thing to go back to normal. I was weeks out of breath from it and tired.

Many people with long covid have not had their energy return to normal even years later (even if you don't count the ones who've died from having other health issues exacerbated---circulatory etc.). Apparently 75% of long covid cases come from mild infections....

I have a fever, headache, sore throat, achy limbs, painful buzzing in my fingertips yesterday. I felt like a popsicle yesterday. I had a spot of diarrhea today, along with a big case of the sweats. And my eyes hurt.

I'm not feeling particularly tired though. And my breathing is just fine.

[Malankazooie]

US declares monkeypox public health emergency. Not sure how significant that is or what actions should be followed? Masks? But there you go.

[Cyphon]

Monkeypox isn't an areasol based infection . You need really close contact for transmission, currently.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Malankazooie, on 04 August 2022 - 07:17 PM, said:

US declares monkeypox public health emergency. Not sure how significant that is or what actions should be followed? Masks? But there you go.

'spreads [primarily] through prolonged and close skin-to-skin contact, including hugging, cuddling and kissing, as well as sharing bedding, towels, and clothing.'

Monkeypox vaccine still scarce in Philly as feds declare public health emergency

So it's gone from 'maybe I can have still safely grind or have sex with strangers if I wear a P100 mask' to 'maybe only through latex full body suit'....

And so much for showing off my abs in crowded spaces. Unless I wear something transparent....

Of course people should still be wearing masks for COVID-19 (not to mention air pollution in many parts of the US).

Wish I could get vaccinated (for monkeypox); vaccine shortage seems mainly due to bureaucratic incompetence.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 04 August 2022 - 10:46 PM

[Malankazooie]

Hearkens back to the wisdom of my dad - don't bring home anything you can't wash off.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'acquiring and shipping more [monkeypox vaccine doses] will still take the U.S. months, stretching into the fall and beyond. In the meantime, federal officials are mulling whether they can split Jynneos doses into five[...]

[...] We’ve been hearing refrains, similar to COVID, about having all the tools we need to deal with this—enough for all jurisdictions in the U.S. It is patently untrue. [...]

[...] We’re going to cut the vaccine doses into five pieces? We need research to evaluate that [...]

[...] you have to be in [isolation] for 21 days with [monkeypox]. Many people can’t afford to do that. [...]

[...] And there’s no new money coming down the pike. The administration floated the idea that they need $7 billion for a monkeypox response. But for some strange reason, they didn’t tell that to Congress formally before they left on recess. This is an emergency without a budget.

[...] Could it jump to other populations in which there’s close physical contact? Prisons, homeless shelters, university dormitories and athletic facilities? Potentially.

[...] We need the government to deliver, and they haven’t been delivering. It’s been this creaking, bumbling, sclerotic response. And now they put two people in charge, declare a public-health emergency—they have no money—and they’re saying everything’s fine.'

What Should Worry Most Americans About Our Monkeypox Response

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'‘Living with Covid’ should be countered by containing the virus once and for all

CDC’s position should be countered by exploiting the science and our clear capabilities of fully containing the virus

[...] For over a year, we have had strong evidence that the primary Covid vaccine series, consisting of two mRNA shots, does not provide adequate protection because of waning immunity. Yet the CDC refuses to change its definition that “fully vaccinated” is two shots. This not only ignores a large body of data but gives the impression to many that a booster is unnecessary, which helps explain why the United States booster rate is pathetically low, at 32% of the population, in stark contrast to most other 37 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) peer countries with rates that exceed 65%. The United States ranks below over 70 countries including Panama, Rwanda, Tajikistan, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan and Iran. [...]

With the revised guidelines, the CDC continue to push a contrived metric which they call “community level” [...] This is not appropriate guidance since Americans would be rightfully concerned about getting infected, not stressing hospital resources in their community. The right United States map, is the “community transmission” which simply reflects the number of confirmed cases in the past seven days per region. That map currently shows that 94% of the country’s population is at high-risk of transmitting Covid whereas the community level map is only 39.7%.

[...] Theoretically, the BA.5 specific vaccine booster that may become available later this fall, might provide better protection against BA.4.6 infections than the original vaccine, but that remains to be proven. [...] a whole new variant family like Omicron [may] emerge in the months ahead that has not yet shown up on the genomic surveillance radar but could pose more of a challenge to our vaccine and infection-induced immunity.

That is why now is the time to gear up and stop the “leak” of current vaccines – the minimal protection or duration against current variants, despite still good protection against severe disease. That can only be accomplished via building mucosal immunity, which is why Professor Iwasaki and I have called for Operation Nasal Vaccine. e also need to press on with a universal, variant-proof coronavirus vaccine which would get ahead of potential pathogenic mutations of the virus rather than chasing specific variants, the untenable strategy as the virus continues to adapt faster than our response.'

‘Living with Covid’ should be countered by containing the virus once and for all

Operation Nasal Vaccine—Lightning speed to counter COVID-19 | Science Immunology

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Omicron BA.5 antibody less effective against BA.2.75

[...] team used the blood of BA.5-infected hamsters to examine how the antibody works against the BA.2.75 subvariant. [...] only had about one-12th of its potency'

Researchers: Omicron BA.5 antibody less effective against BA.2.75

... my BA.5 booster should still be more effective than the non-omicron version, at least... IDK if it will be any more effective against 2.75 than the bivalent vaccine for original omicron.


'BA.2.75 variant may be much more infective than preexisting variants

[...] The highest docking affinity of the spike protein with ACE2 (ratio per Wuhan variant) was observed in BA.2.75. [...] BA.2.75 has both the highest docking affinity and the longest evolutionary distance [from the original variant ...]'

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 variant may be much more infective than preexisting variants


'results suggest that BA.2.75 can cause more severe respiratory disease than BA.5 and BA.2 and should be closely monitored.'

Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 clinical isolates

... that last study was also done in hamsters though. There were iirc similar results re: severity in hamsters for previous variants that didn't seem to translate into statistical increases in severity in human populations (though it's difficult to tell without doing controlled human experiments... so maybe only some authoritarian regimes (secretly) know the truth?...).