[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

1.1*1.8 = 1.98 = 98% more infectious than omicron.

With the tail end of spring break season ongoing (luckily more schools have spring break in the last two weeks of March than in April, apparently) and Easter coming up... omicron surge being far enough away for antibodies to fade significantly, and the BA.2 wave in the US still not having surged enough to provide much population level immunity.

Still waiting for more long covid studies on the vaccinated and boosted....

[Tsundoku]

I hadn't heard much detail about the China super-lockdown until recently, and it looks pretty fucked up. It wasn't this bad here, even with our long lockdowns.

https://www.news.com...920fc823d4137db

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 10 April 2022 - 03:00 AM

[Maark Abbott]

Tsundoku, on 10 April 2022 - 03:00 AM, said:

I hadn't heard much detail about the China super-lockdown until recently, and it looks pretty fucked up. It wasn't this bad here, even with our long lockdowns.

https://www.news.com...920fc823d4137db

I've actually gotten most of my news on this via Mica Team who run Girls' Frontline, as they are based in Shanghai. Which is to say precious little news at all (because that could get them in trouble) but uh, yeah, pretty dire by the look of it.

[Macros]

Two weeks after I get clear wifey has tested positive

[QuickTidal]

Macros, on 19 April 2022 - 10:43 AM, said:

Two weeks after I get clear wifey has tested positive

Hope it's mild and she kicks it quickly and feels better soon.

[Macros]

Seems fairly inoffensive so far

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Philadelphia is the first major US city to reinstitute the indoor mask mandate... but now with the unqualified ultrapartisan Trump judge having struck down the national mandate for masks on public transportation, and pos Biden refusing to appeal, Philadelphia public transport---including subways---will no longer require masks... WTFH.

I'm probably protected, assuming my P100 mask really does fit well enough (passes the doesn't-fog-glasses, can-feel-the-suction, and can't-feel-air-gaps tests, but these are far from foolproof). I found a place in Philadelphia that apparently offers fit tests for the general public for N95 masks; I should check whether they can do quantitative fit tests for P100 masks. Or at least qualitative. If not of course I could have them do fit tests for my N95 masks. Wonder if they charge an exorbitant fee (... but if the alternative is long covid...).

Better solution is to walk whenever possible. I don't drive (have a license but haven't driven in decades) and never learned to ride a bike, so skateboarding it is then. (Actually never learned to skateboard either. Maybe some sort of electric scooter or tricycle? Wonder if there's an uber for motorcycles/motortricycles, where it's open air. Or as the weather's getting warmer perhaps I can request Uber driver have all windows open? And ask specifically for one wearing an N95 mask---obviously I couldn't just demand a random Uber driver put one on, but it seems fair to limit my matches to those willing to do this.)



'Vaccines are no match for long Covid. Treating it is science's next great challenge

[...] We thought that the number of long Covid cases developing might be lower when most cases were breakthrough cases in the vaccinated, or infections in vaccinated or partially vaccinated children. Sadly, far from any subsidence in new long Covid cases, the big, ongoing caseloads of the Delta, Omicron and BA.2 waves have brought a large cohort of new sufferers.

From published data, the chances of long Covid in those who are vaccinated but suffer breakthrough infections may be halved, but when you apply this to the huge waves we've experienced [...]

These waves have disproportionately affected primary and secondary schools, and many of the new sufferers are children. [...] LongCovidKids.org reports a constant stream of new members across its support services, many developing long Covid after two, three or four bouts of reinfection, having escaped it first time round.

Also, the symptom spectrum may be shifting from the earlier waves, with more reports of sight, hearing and motor-function deficits, alongside gastrointestinal pain, joint pain, rashes, swelling and fatigue. This is a tangible price being paid for turning a blind eye to the high incidence of cases in schools over recent months.

With such large numbers having been infected at any given time in recent months, many suffering repeat infections at three- or four-week intervals, the potential legacy of chronic, disabling illness is an aspect making this utterly different from most other winter respiratory pathogens – such as flu or colds. Nobody is certain whether long Covid from the current period will be quite the same as the early waves, but this is an experiment that none of us would wish to do on our children.

[...] followed up patients with persistent symptoms after infection during the 2003 Sars outbreak. Many of these showed little recovery several years later. If this trend were extrapolated to our current Omicron wave, the effects on education, the workforce and healthcare provision would be huge.

[...]

Many of the responses offered when they get to the front of the queue at long Covid clinics are about readjustment and rehabilitation in light of their new disability. They do not want readjustment, they want their lives back.'

Vaccines are no match for long Covid. Treating it is science's next great challenge | Danny Altmann | The Guardian

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 19 April 2022 - 04:37 PM

[amphibian]

In Philly, there's bike shares, but there are no electric scooter shares.

If you're using a P100 and are not able to feel air gaps, I think you're fine on the subway in full though.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'More Than Half of People in This Study Still Had COVID-19 Symptoms 6–12 Months After Testing Positive

[...] Danish study found the symptoms of long COVID to be “severe.”

[...] over 53% of people who tested positive for COVID-19 were still experiencing concentration difficulties, sleep issues, or physical exhaustion 6 to 12 months after originally testing positive. “New diagnoses of anxiety or depression were also more common among test-positives,” [...]

[...] long-term symptoms were so severe that many people were unable to work; among the people who tested positive, 12% took sick leave sometime in between one month after initially testing positive and filling out the survey, compared with only 7% of people who hadn’t gotten COVID-19. Researchers concluded that long COVID symptoms appeared to be “significant” in the Danish population and believed the results to be “generalizable to other comparable populations.”

[...] “Long COVID has a serious impact on people’s ability to go back to work or have a social life. It affects their mental health and may have significant economic consequences for them, their families, and for society,”'

https://www.self.com...d-study-denmark

... but wearing a well-fitting mask is mildly uncomfortable, so....

[QuickTidal]

For what it's worth, I'm on week 3 after getting it, and while I'm mostly okay I still get winded doing things exertive at times (not always), still have a post-viral cough that sucks (they checked my chest and it's clear, it's just from PND), and my sinuses and stuff are still not back to normal and I have good nights of sleep and bad ones. The doctor who did my X-Ray to check my chest and whatnot said it could take weeks to months to feel entirely normal again and these post-covid symptoms seem to stick around in a lot of people. So yeah, not fun.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 21 April 2022 - 03:23 PM

[Maark Abbott]

QuickTidal, on 21 April 2022 - 03:16 PM, said:

For what it's worth, I'm on week 3 after getting it, and while I'm mostly okay I still get winded doing things exertive at times (not always), still have a post-viral cough that sucks (they checked my chest and it's clear, it's just from PND), and my sinuses and stuff are still not back to normal and I have good nights of sleep and bad ones. The doctor who did my X-Ray to check my chest and whatnot said it could take weeks to months to feel entirely normal again and these post-covid symptoms seem to stick around in a lot of people. So yeah, not fun.

I'm due an x-ray Thursday evening. Mostly just to ensure there's nothing left after the pre-covid chest infection. When the post-covid coughs happen they're pretty violent and retching.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Ffs:

'Fauci: U.S. Is Finally "Out of Pandemic Phase" of COVID-19

[...] Biden's chief medical adviser told PBS[...] that the country was no longer seeing "tens and tens and tens of thousands of hospitalizations and thousands of deaths." He said: "We are certainly right now in this country out of the pandemic phase."'

https://www.thedaily...=cheats&via=rss

7-day average COVID-19 deaths in US: 338 / day = 2366 deaths / week7-day average COVID-19 hospitalizations in US: 10,962 / day = 76,734 / week

He's fine with people becoming disabled by brain fog and fatigue (and microclots, and organ damage) so long as they don't fill up hospitals (in the short term) and they take a long time to die?

'Before Washington's 'Nerd Prom,' Lots of Risk-Benefit Calculation
[...] Fauci won't attend the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner

[...] Fauci [...] decided not to attend "because of my individual assessment of my personal risk."'

Before White House Correspondents' Dinner, Lots of Risk-Benefit Calculation - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

'All the indicators suggest the US is likely poised for a new surge of Covid; in some parts of the country, that surge may already be arriving. But in our zeal to declare the pandemic over, we may have maneuvered ourselves into a position where it is now harder to detect a coming wave.

[...] cases are increasing in the US [...]

[...] a variation on BA.2 with the technical designation BA.2.12.1 is surging as well. In a weekly assessment published Tuesday by the CDC, it now accounts for almost 29 percent of US cases.

[...] evolutionary biologist [...] predicted "a significant wave every six months with significant mortality and morbidity."

[...] There is no guarantee future variants will be milder than the first version of Omicron was. Virologists argue the opposite[...]

[...] All of this puts us in line for a surge, one that we don't see coming. Since the beginning of the year, states have shuttered their PCR testing sites, the Department of Health and Human Services has changed the metrics for data it reports, and huge numbers of Americans have switched to at-home antigen tests, which do not require reporting results. [...] most of the time, the test result isn't handed off to be aggregated with anyone else's data.'

When the Next Covid Wave Breaks, the US Won't Be Able to Spot It | WIRED

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

New variant '23% to 27% more transmissible than [...] BA.2' (BA.2 estimated 60 to 80% more transmissible than omicron) now dominant in New York state + lifting mask mandates + resurgence of winter weather over the last few days = perfect storm for new surge....

Philadelphia officials didn't just back down from the reinstated indoor mask mandate after three days (and a law suit by business owners), they completely scrapped the objective quantitative criteria they had set up for reinstating mask mandates and other precautions and replaced it with... nothing (but the whining of the biggest donors about their money...).

New BA.2.12.1 Omicron Subvariant Is Even More Contagious, Fueling Covid-19 Upswing In New York State (forbes.com)

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Study indicates that BA.4 and BA.5 escape immunity from prior infection with BA.1 and are more contagious than BA.2. Haven't tested against prior infection with BA.2 yet.

COVID's new Omicron sub-lineages can dodge immunity from past infection, study says | Reuters

'Fundamental' differences between BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5, as well as the surge of BA.4 / BA.5 in South Africa, suggest it probably escapes immunity from BA.2 too:

'[...] The two new variants have "mutations in the lineages that allow the virus to evade immunity," [...] Cases are surging in South Africa despite the fact that almost all South Africans have been vaccinated or had COVID[...]

A "fundamentally different" subvariant

Significant mutations in BA.4 make it a new lineage distinct from [BA.2 ...] "S gene target failure" —a reference to some PCR tests' initial inability to detect the variant [...] was signature of the original Omicron, but not of BA.2 [...] But in BA.4, it's back'

BA.4 and BA.5, two new Omicron variants sweeping South Africa, detected in U.S. (yahoo.com)

... or it might not. If not, Europe (and other areas recovering from a BA.2 surge) might be spared.

Since BA.4 and BA.5 are already in the US, another surge is probably coming... unless spring defeats it. If people were just willing to open all their windows that could go a long way towards mitigating it... but too many probably either view that as 'tyranny' or can't be bothered.

Reports of people not getting long covid on first infection, but getting it after subsequent infections. Another spin of the cylinder (Русская рулетка для вашего мозга и энергии)....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 01 May 2022 - 09:11 PM

[Traveller]

I finally got the virus.

Dodged it for 2+ years at work, only to get it at home when the kids got it over Easter.

I only had a sore throat for a day, but the fatigue was a thing for a few days - I've been sceptical about it but it was like the effect I get from antihistamines - heavy head and lethargy. I upped my coffee intake, because I managed to get two weeks off and I didn't want to waste it. The garden is looking great!

I'm back to work now; I still have a slight cough and I'm def getting slightly out of breath at times.

This post has been edited by Traveller: 03 May 2022 - 03:40 PM

[QuickTidal]

Traveller, on 03 May 2022 - 03:39 PM, said:

I finally got the virus.

Dodged it for 2+ years at work, only to get it at home when the kids got it over Easter.

I only had a sore throat for a day, but the fatigue was a thing for a few days - I've been sceptical about it but it was like the effect I get from antihistamines - heavy head and lethargy. I upped my coffee intake, because I managed to get two weeks off and I didn't want to waste it. The garden is looking great!

I'm back to work now; I still have a slight cough and I'm def getting slightly out of breath at times.

Glad to hear you managed it alright!

I had my cough for about 3 weeks post-infection, and I still have the "out of breath" thing at times too, and it shows no signs of abating sadly.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'study suggests double masking with improperly fitted masks may not significantly improve mask efficiency and produces a false sense of security.

More layers mean a less porous face covering, leading to more flow forced out of the perimeter gaps (sides, top, and bottom) in masks with a less secure fit. Double layers increase filtering efficiency only with good mask fit but could also lead to breathing difficulties.

[...] the slight asymmetry typical in all facial structures can affect proper mask fitting. For example, a mask can have a tighter fit on the left side of the face than on the right side. [...]

Creating "designer masks" customized to each person's face is not practical at scale.'

Face shape influences mask fit, suggests problems with double masking against COVID-19

... unless 3D printed elastomeric plastic masks with replaceable filters? But adjustable elastomeric masks are already much more likely to fit well (than a non-fit-tested N95).

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Looks like covid hasn't been evolving to be intrinsically milder:

'Omicron as severe as other COVID variants -large U.S. study

[...]

Rather than just looking at numbers of deaths and hospitalizations, as earlier studies have done, it accounted for patients' vaccination status and medical risk factors and compared similar groups of people[...]

When the Omicron variant was first identified late in 2021, public health officials said it caused much milder symptoms in the vast majority of infected people. That may have encouraged the vaccine hesitant that they were less in need of a shot.'

Omicron as severe as other COVID variants -large U.S. study | Reuters


'no detected difference when comparing adjusted hospitalization risk of [...] Omicron to Delta (OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.99 - 1.01, p = 0.67). Compared to the Omicron period, the risk of mortality was very similar to the Winter 20'-21' period (OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00 - 1.01, p = 0.4) and Delta period (OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00 - 1.01, p = 0.08).'

Nature Medicine (researchsquare.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 06 May 2022 - 01:55 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Spring weather in much of the US has been terrible so far for covid---not just heavy rain but cold; and on the west coast, snow (even in California...). Meanwhile heat waves brewing in the south, tornados have been tearing up the southeast, flooding in north central US....

Cold wind and rain (and worse) giving BA.4/BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 the push they need to accelerate the exponential avalanche(s)....

Hopefully winter won't return again in my area for a while, but heavy rain will probably be back before too long... wonder if there are screens that can let air pass while stopping rain (and insects, if not spores and pollution...). In principle possible but perhaps too expensive to be widely deployed.

My periscope umbrella (with peep-hole so I can hold it down over my mask and still see adequately---of course I'd want to wear a P100 mask outside even if not for the pandemic because of the air pollution (come to think of it, what I'd really like is a bulletproof mask---seems feasible)) got a bit damaged, so I decided to replace it with a see-through umbrella---but reviews indicated that most of these are not sturdy... except perhaps the one I got. Most worried about it inverting or being damaged by wind. Best for wind apparently have a dual layer design to let the wind through, but none of the transparent umbrellas seem to have that; in principle it seems like it should be possible though. Want the transparent umbrella because I'm concerned about strong wind blowing rain under the umbrella and onto my mask. My P100 filters are supposed to be water resistant, but still, it would almost certainly lower their effectiveness....



'mid-Atlantic and Northeast [...] gripped by a wet and chilly pattern in recent days as rounds of rainfall have swung through [...] However, [...] a major shift is on the horizon as warm and dry weather is set to spread over the Northeast during the coming week.

[...] Rainfall was heavy in many areas, with over 3 inches of rain across portions of Maryland, West Virginia and Pennsylvania.'

'Rain, snow and wind targets western US this week

[...] began on Sunday. Rain and snow showers moved across Oregon and Northern California and ushered in a wave of colder conditions; cold enough to allow for snow.

Into Monday, the rain and snow will continue to expand inland.'


https://www.accuweat...rtheast/1184390

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 08 May 2022 - 05:52 PM

[Malankazooie]

Monkeypox . . . what up? Are we in that phase of the end times where we are beset by plagues?