[Macros]

Countries like SA simply can not afford much more lockdown. Soon, with vaccine success or not, I think we are going to see countries just push people back in to 'normality' and try to roll with the punches. It's not going to be pretty

[WithdrawalRoutine]

 Macros, on 23 December 2020 - 07:40 AM, said:

Countries like SA simply can not afford much more lockdown. Soon, with vaccine success or not, I think we are going to see countries just push people back in to 'normality' and try to roll with the punches. It's not going to be pretty

Exactly what’s happening right now. They’re trying to normalise the virus, which leads to people feeling like they have license to ignore it and go wild. South Africans also go absolutely wild for December as well, which is difficult to control as it is. Not to mention the binge drinking culture that gets worse every year 😬

[Malankazooie]

That drone footage of the lorries stacked bumper to bumper at the Dover port. Beautiful in a way though. Reminded me of an unimaginative baby giant who just decided to organize his/her Lego blocks in rows.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'America Is Trapped in a Pandemic Spiral

As the U.S. heads toward the winter, the country is going round in circles, making the same conceptual errors that have plagued it since spring.

Army ants will sometimes walk in circles until they die. The workers navigate by smelling the pheromone trails of workers in front of them, while laying down pheromones for others to follow. If these trails accidentally loop back on themselves, the ants are trapped. They become a thick, swirling vortex of bodies that resembles a hurricane as viewed from space. They march endlessly until they're felled by exhaustion or dehydration. The ants can sense no picture bigger than what's immediately ahead. They have no coordinating force to guide them to safety. They are imprisoned by a wall of their own instincts. This phenomenon is called the death spiral. I can think of no better metaphor for the United States of America's response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

[...] Many Americans trusted intuition to help guide them through this disaster. They grabbed onto whatever solution was most prominent in the moment, and bounced from one (often false) hope to the next. They saw the actions that individual people were taking, and blamed and shamed their neighbors. They lapsed into magical thinking, and believed that the world would return to normal within months. [...]

[...] instead of overriding misleading intuitions with calm and considered communication, those leaders intensified them. The country is now trapped in an intuition nightmare: Like the spiraling ants, Americans are walled in by their own unhelpful instincts, which lead them round and round in self-destructive circles.

"The grand challenge now is, how can we adjust our thinking to match the problem before us?" says Lori Peek, a sociologist at the University of Colorado at Boulder who studies disasters. Here, then, are nine errors of intuition that still hamstring the U.S. pandemic response, and a glimpse at the future if they continue unchecked.

[...] 1. A Serial Monogamy of Solutions

Stay-at-home orders dominated March. Masks were fiercely debated in April. Contact tracing took its turn in May. Ventilation is having its moment now. "It's like we only have attention for only one thing at a time," says Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida.

[...]

2. False Dichotomies

[...] This two-sided caricature—severe or mild, sick or recovered—has erased the thousands of "long-haulers" who have endured months of debilitating symptoms at home with neither recognition nor care.

[...] "we presumed a trade-off between saving lives and saving the economy," says Danielle Allen, a political scientist at Harvard. "That was foolishness of the most profound degree." The two goals were actually aligned: Epidemiologists and economists largely agree that the economy cannot rebound while the pandemic is still raging.'

[...] another dichotomy has emerged: enter another awful lockdown, or let the virus run free. [...] Public-health measures offer a middle road, and even "lockdowns" need not be as overbearing as they were in spring. A city could close higher-risk venues like bars and nightclubs while opening lower-risk ones like retail stores. There's a "whole control panel of dials" on offer, but "it's hard to have that conversation when people think of a light switch," [...] "The term lockdown has done a lot of damage." It exacerbated the false binary between shutting down and opening up, while offering …

3. The Comfort of Theatricality'

https://www.theatlan...n8p3_QoyiNCOOlE

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 24 December 2020 - 09:36 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'The United States reached a grim milestone on Saturday: 1 in 1,000 Americans have died from Covid-19 [...]

Census Bureau estimates for the last week of December place the US population at around 330,750,000. On Saturday afternoon, the national death toll from Covid-19 reached 331,116'

https://www.cnn.com/...line/index.html

[Tsundoku]

1 in 1000. Fuck. That's quite the stat.

And quite the object lesson/cautionary tale.

[Macros]

The Oxford vaccine possibly being pushed out next week, so rolling out through the new year.

The pluses for it seem to be storage - regular fridge and cost - £2 a shot compared to the Pfizer £15 a shot.

Cons are is presumed effective rate? I don't know a lot about it, so I'll let the smart people chime in on this one

[Cyphon]

My understanding is the Oxford one has one advantage in that it stops severe cases of covid19, even if the total immunity rate isnt as high as astrazeneca's/others. I think the effective rate is still like 90% though?

Again not an expert.

[Mezla PigDog]

At this point the most important thing from a public health level is hitting the herd immunity point post-vaccination. For the Oxford/AZ one that will need more people to be vaccinated than the BioNTech/Pfizer one. Assuming the numbers coming out of the original studies are accurate but a lot will depend on the nuance of the vaccines protective properties. Due to the cold chain requirements of the BioNTech/Pfizer one it is slower to roll out. So assuming the Oxford/AZ one gets approved then it will take over. The most important thing is getting any safe vaccine into as many people as possible at this point. Dosing and particular technology will change over time but improvement of population immunity us what counts in the short term.

[Primateus]

20 dead yesterday, 30 today. That is a worrying precedent we very definitely did not need here in little Denmark.

[Aptorian]

Sorry to hear that, BK. It seems to be like that a lot for the sick and elderly. They gather strength towards Christmas or other big celebrations and gatherings and then pass soon afterwards.

[Macros]

Condolences BK man, regardless of cause losing people is never nice

[QuickTidal]

Shit BK, I, sorry man.

[Slow Ben]

That sucks BK. Sorry bud.

[Primateus]

Sorry to hear that man, a sucky end to a sucky year!

[Malankazooie]

Well, isn't this just a fine and dandy late Christmas present. That new strain that is a lot more contagious is in my state now. And to add to the fun, active studies are running to determine if the Pfizer vaccine works on it or not. Supposedly the Moderna vaccine works. 2021 is gonna be more of the same it seems.

[Whisperzzzzzzz]

 Briar King, on 28 December 2020 - 08:42 PM, said:

Just got the word I lost my aunt. She was out the hospital before Christmas and Christmas morning ten minutes after my cuz had just talked to her she went back and found her unresponsive in bedroom and she remained that way. Idk if they will determine it was corona or pneumonia due to corona.

I'm sorry to hear that BK. My thoughts are with you — stay safe!

[amphibian]

 Briar King, on 28 December 2020 - 08:42 PM, said:

Just got the word I lost my aunt. She was out the hospital before Christmas and Christmas morning ten minutes after my cuz had just talked to her she went back and found her unresponsive in bedroom and she remained that way. Idk if they will determine it was corona or pneumonia due to corona.

I'm sorry for your loss.

Luke Letlow, a Representative elect from Louisiana who was going to be sworn in during January, just died from covid-19.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

 amphibian, on 30 December 2020 - 03:17 AM, said:

 Briar King, on 28 December 2020 - 08:42 PM, said:

Just got the word I lost my aunt. She was out the hospital before Christmas and Christmas morning ten minutes after my cuz had just talked to her she went back and found her unresponsive in bedroom and she remained that way. Idk if they will determine it was corona or pneumonia due to corona.

I'm sorry for your loss.

Luke Letlow, a Representative elect from Louisiana who was going to be sworn in during January, just died from covid-19.

He was only 41... didn't look too obese. No mention of preexisting conditions.

[amphibian]

Young people are dying at historically high rates from Covid-19, even if most of the deaths are from older people. The numbers show this over and over again.