Malazan Empire: COVID-19 (aka Coronavirus, aka 2019-nCoV) - Malazan Empire

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COVID-19 (aka Coronavirus, aka 2019-nCoV)

#2281 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 19 December 2020 - 08:02 PM

View PostCause, on 19 December 2020 - 07:23 PM, said:

View PostMezla PigDog, on 19 December 2020 - 11:39 AM, said:

View PostMalankazooie, on 18 December 2020 - 06:09 PM, said:

DeepMind AI protein folding. What is it? Why is it important? What will its impact be? What will it mean for medical research? Will we see a surge in innovative therapies? Will it spin off and become impactful in other industries? What does the future hold? Reading the excitement about it and the possibilities, is the hype warranted?


If it is as accurate as they think it might be then it is massive. It will speed up research and drug design massively. Protein function is dictated by shape. Everything in your body is done by proteins. You can quite easily figure out the linear sequence of a protein from the DNA sequence but you can't guess how it will fold because it depends on loads of funky stuff in the cell. You have to make masses of protein to be able to see it enough to see how it folds but the process of making it puts it into an artificial environment so it folds differently to how it would in the cell. And it takes ages. So it's a pain in the ass, slow and inaccurate. If you can do it by AI then it is monumental.


My understanding is that it still requires significant experimental data to help build its model. The holy grail of biochemistry though is solving the protein folding problem. If we could predict how a sequence of protein would fold into its 3D shape we would basically be on the cusp of being able to design enzymes that do what we want. Understand any virus and how it works just by reading it's genome. Solve the enzymatic mechanisms of enzymes that are perhaps targets for drug therapies. Sadly the variables are astronomical and we don't even know what they are all

Protein folding is governed by (just to name a few)
Protein sequence (the sequence is both the code, the blueprint and the building blocks. Imagine a computer in which the hard drive is also the pc case, the monitor, the battery all at once)
Levinthals paradox (protein folding is highly controlled, if proteins sequences just sampled every possible 3D conformation that was possible it would take a million years, clearly their are mechanisms which limit its options and lock it down correct paths)
Hydrophobic effect (is the protein folded in water, lipids, combination?)
Translation speed and tRNA concentric a in a cell (if the mRNA code is translated to protein code too slow or too fast protein might fold incorrectly)
Molecular crowding (cells are insanely crowded compared to test tubes, having to much room to expand into might cause misfoldeing)
Chaperone proteins (some proteins need other proteins to act as scaffolds to guide correct folding)
Wuarternary structure (some proteins will only fold correctly if they are folded alongside and bond to another monomer unit of themselves or a different protein, in its absence it will misfold and not work)
Post translational modification ( a protein that folds correctly might still need another protein to come along and cut a part off, or add sugar molecules or change a functional group of an amino acid. Until that step is folded correctly to its instructions but remains worthless. Part of its code is kept somewhere else. These secondary, tertiary etc steps provide additional methods of control allowing protein concentrations and activities to be finely regilated)

This is also than an incomplete picture too. For a long time we thought proteins were all important. They are the machines that do all the work. However we are learning more and more how complex and how important regulation of genes are. After all a human and a chimpanzee are 99% identical. However by turning some genes on for longer, making more proteins that code for and others on for less you can get drastic different outcomes. Some dna we now know doesn't even code for protein, which was once thought to be junk dna that does nothing. We know now that it can code for segments of code that do nothing but bind to other segments of code to deactivate them for example.

So this is a big step forward but we are lifetimes away if it's even possible to even get close to what they did in the one Spider-Man movie where spider and the lizard are running computer models to determine if nw therapies would work on computer mice. In theory such a thing is possible. In practice....


With quantum computing it might be more like 10 years away.

'Most of physics, and all of chemistry are based on a single equation – the Schrödinger equation. The current state-of-the-art technology in computational chemistry is based on either truncating that equation or reformulating the problem to a simpler problem. In the first class of methods, arbitrarily high precision can be realized by increasing the allowed computation time. However, problems easily get out of hand, and only small systems can be simulated. With this method, the simulation of protein structure is often out of reach. The second class of methods is dominated by density functional theory (DFT). In DFT, the problem is simplified by considering the density of electrons, instead of the full electronic configuration. This works very well for a large number of systems but starts to break down when the interaction between electrons increases. Unfortunately, for many interesting properties such as protein folding, DFT doesn't provide enough accuracy. This is where quantum computing comes in.

Quantum computers are extremely good at calculating the Schrödinger equation. Instead of truncating the equation, or simplifying the problem, quantum computers can simulate systems with much higher accuracy. [...] The QPE algorithm provides an exponential speed-up over classical algorithms.

Quantum phase estimation is a game changer for simulations of systems with lots of interaction between electrons. By calculating the Schrödinger equation to arbitrary accuracy, we can now determine the energy surface of molecules. From the energy surface, we can learn about chemical properties such as reaction rates and binding energies. A better understanding of protein structure and dynamics can hence speed-up the fabrication of vaccines. Unfortunately, quantum computers do not have the required power to run these algorithms, and it is likely that we have to wait at least ten more years to see their full potential.'

https://www.capgemin...-crisis-part-1/

'Quantum computing: how conditions created by the COVID-19 shutdown are delivering "the best data we have ever seen".

Remotely controlled experiments are the way forward.

[...] the data have been excellent because the campus has been a ghost town. The lab's temperature hasn't wavered and there's little vibrational noise in the unoccupied building. It's one of very few university quantum experiments making real progress right now.'

https://www.nature.c...586-020-01937-x

'D-Wave Systems has offered free cloud computing time on its quantum computer to COVID-19 researchers.'

[...] The free quantum computing consulting services D-Wave is arranging include quantum programming expertise in scientific computing as well as in planning, management, and operations for front-line workers.'

https://spectrum.iee...the-coronavirus

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 19 December 2020 - 08:12 PM

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#2282 User is offline   Mezla PigDog 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 08:35 AM

New super transmissible strain in the UK. You're welcome world. Although these things are kind of inevitable when you have large amounts of infection and I do wonder if the only reason we know about it here and not in other places is because the UK is nuts for sequencing stuff. We have the best genomics capability in the world and as Trump rightly said, if you don't look for something you don't find it. I think the UK government are using this to bring in restrictions they should have done months ago. And these are problems we have been storing up since leaving the first lockdown early and having crap test and trace and poor systems for incentivising self-isolation. All tried and tested evidence based public health strategies. Winter was always going to be like this without that stuff in place.

I wouldn't be worried about it personally but with the already existing pre-Brexit port delays and the looming possibility of no deal on 1st January I am genuinely concerned for fresh food supplies on this stupid little island. Idiots of the highest order.
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#2283 User is offline   Maark Abbott 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 12:52 PM

View PostMezla PigDog, on 21 December 2020 - 08:35 AM, said:

New super transmissible strain in the UK. You're welcome world. Although these things are kind of inevitable when you have large amounts of infection and I do wonder if the only reason we know about it here and not in other places is because the UK is nuts for sequencing stuff. We have the best genomics capability in the world and as Trump rightly said, if you don't look for something you don't find it. I think the UK government are using this to bring in restrictions they should have done months ago. And these are problems we have been storing up since leaving the first lockdown early and having crap test and trace and poor systems for incentivising self-isolation. All tried and tested evidence based public health strategies. Winter was always going to be like this without that stuff in place.

I wouldn't be worried about it personally but with the already existing pre-Brexit port delays and the looming possibility of no deal on 1st January I am genuinely concerned for fresh food supplies on this stupid little island. Idiots of the highest order.


The brexit scenario we're looking at is what I've been expecting for the last four years, so I have a little stockpile of tins ready for it. I can see the government using covid and tier 4 as an excuse for everything going tits up in Janaury, mind. The cynic in me says it's purposeful. The logical part of me says on balance of probability, it's incidental but... ehh. My sister is working in a London hospital, her brother in law is in ICU with a case, so it's all bad just now.
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#2284 User is offline   Mezla PigDog 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 01:23 PM

Good luck to your sister.

Yeah, Macron banning freight for 2 days will give them the perfect place to put the blame. The French. The papers will lap that one up.
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#2285 User is offline   QuickTidal 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 03:53 PM

Ontario, as expected, is now about to go into full lockdown. Whole province. Christmas Eve. Because Douggie wants people to be able to finish their Xmas shopping....
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#2286 User is offline   amphibian 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 04:50 PM

I'm using a rough estimate of 65% undiagnosed COVID cases for my county. We have 911 confirmed active cases right now, which means maybe there are about 2600 actual active cases.

I picked 65% because we are in a region where testing isn't actually free or truly widespread or rapid, there's no govt support of isolation for people with active cases (hotel/paying them to stay home etc), poor contact tracing due to failures to cooperate and the local governments being mostly run by Republicans, and the somewhat spread out population.

We are seeing 100+ new cases confirmed a day in a county of about 158,000 people. This is going to be a very rough January.
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#2287 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 05:59 PM

View PostMezla PigDog, on 21 December 2020 - 08:35 AM, said:

I wouldn't be worried about it personally but with the already existing pre-Brexit port delays and the looming possibility of no deal on 1st January I am genuinely concerned for fresh food supplies on this stupid little island. Idiots of the highest order.


There's a strong environmental case to be made for either eating non-perishable or locally grown foods. I usually only eat dried, pickled, frozen, canned (less often because of chemical leakage concerns, even with the BPA ban), or vacuum-sealed vegetables/beans/sustainable seafood. Frozen is probably more nutritious than "fresh" (unless you're eating it very soon after harvesting) and by decreasing food waste it ends up having a lower carbon footprint than non-local fresh produce.

It would be wonderful if this accelerated the transition to ultra-local hydroponic vertical farms and algae and insect based protein.

'Take peas, for example. We [UK] eat 100,000 tonnes of frozen peas a year, predominantly from British farms, blast-frozen in a tunnel at -25C two and half hours after harvesting. OK, this is an energy-intensive practice [...] But compare it to the other popular alternative of flying mangetout from Africa in winter (some 6,000 miles), and add in the issue of whether the land used to grow this food for export should be used for local food production - and frozen looks virtuous.

[...] Its core use should be to freeze local or homegrown surpluses to tide you through the winter.

Canned produce suffers from a similar image problem. Admittedly, a lot of energy is expended in the canning process, turning gas into steam[...]

But the big ecological get-out-of-jail-free card is that canned food allows us, the consumer, to pre-cycle. Unlike with plastic, with its woeful array of indecipherable triangle symbols and different polymers, we largely know we can recycled tins into an established system. Most tins now contain around 25 per cent recycled material.

But which is better, frozen or canned? While tins of food will sit there happily until the apocalypse arrives, frozen foods require constant energy to stay frozen. But you can mitigate this energy consumption with better freezer management. Put your freezer near a direct heat source - it is often near the cooker - and you raise operating costs by around 50 per cent. Store it in the garage and keep it fully packed (it will work more efficiently) and it becomes relatively inexpensive.'

https://www.theguard...t/2008/sep/14/1

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 21 December 2020 - 06:05 PM

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#2288 User is offline   QuickTidal 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 06:32 PM

Yes. Frozen stuff like fruit and veg is a godsend at our house, simply because when we do a big grocery shop, we buy all kinds of fruit and veg with the intention of eating it in good time in meals, but I throw out a lot of rotten stuff simply because we don't get around to it. The kids eat a medley of frozen peas, carrots, green beans, and corn and they love it.

That said, everyone should be saving and freezing their vegetable waste, anything you don't use of the vegetable when preparing for cooking, (onion skins, pepper seeds and cores, carrot shavings, broccoli stems, ect) in a big freezer bag. And using it to make a tonne of vegetable stock for pennies. Steer clear of waste from potatoes and other starches and save and use the rest. I've done this for a while now and any time I need veg stock for a recipe, it's free-ish.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 21 December 2020 - 06:34 PM

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#2289 User is offline   Macros 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 07:38 PM

I've been trying to push for converting some of our land into allotments, our farm is very close to the town, and I think all this will really increase peoples interest in it.

I've been pushing the financial angle to get Dad on board, but for me it would just be great to see people growing their own shit.
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#2290 User is offline   Mezla PigDog 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:23 PM

I harvested my last crop of home grown lettuce today. I have never managed to grow lettuce so late in the year before. Feeling pleased with myself. Also, global warming.
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#2291 User is offline   WithdrawalRoutine 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:48 PM

The situation in South Africa has been dire, with the new variant being 70% more contagious. Our second wave has just begun and it’s enormous. Yet, despite this, the even bigger tide is of the numbers of idiots who are anti-maskers and buying into all sorts of conspiracy theory. Worse yet, these seem to be the same South Africans who have become even more xenophobic and nationalistic in the last few years. It’s real shit at the moment. We won’t even get the vaccine any time soon either.
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#2292 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 09:51 PM

Was surprised to learn this: 'As recently as 2011, a full 40% of the food produced in Russia came from small, household gardens called dachas.

[...] dacha gardens produced 80% of the nation's fruit and berries, 66% of the vegetables, 80% of the potatoes and half of the milk (much of it consumed raw) in 2011, according to the Russian Statistics Service.'

https://returntonow....family-gardens/

'For Russians, Humble Dacha Provides Refuge From Coronavirus

"It's good here. We'll grow carrots and strawberries and maybe even some potatoes," the 78-year-old says, while his wife Lyudmila trims rose bushes in the garden of their country home outside Moscow.

[...] dachas, small countryside homes that were parcelled out to city workers in Soviet times.

Generations of Muscovites have spent their weekends and summer breaks in dacha settlements, usually an hour or two outside the city, made up of rows of humble brick or wooden houses and vegetable patches.

Nearly half of Russia's population is estimated to have a dacha, so when authorities began imposing lockdown measures on Moscow last month, thousands streamed out of the city.

Online searches for dacha rentals also soared, with nearly five times as many requests as usual in the first two weeks of April [...]

"It's interesting because these last 10 years were marked by a serious crisis for the dacha," [...]

"A lot of people are suddenly remembering that they have a dacha and starting urgent repairs -- with the priority the installation of a good internet connection."'

https://www.barrons....rus-01587653957

But city dwellers who can't afford outdoor or rooftop gardens have options too:

'How to Have a Hydroponic Farm in a Closet-Sized Apartment

[...] At one point vertical farming as a solution would have been an outlandish solution, but it's a growing industry, and more than one company now offers setups that the average person can fit into their home and operate without any assistance from an agriculture expert.'

https://thespoon.tec...ized-apartment/

'If there's one thing I could change about my one-bedroom apartment, it wouldn't be the square footage or the carpet or the weird handle-less kitchen cabinets. It would be the lack of natural light, which sadly stymies my dream of covering every available surface with greenery and growing fresh herbs right in my kitchen.

But it turns out there is actually one thing I can grow successfully in my cave of a kitchen: mushrooms. Yep, mushrooms love the dark, and it turns out they're actually pretty easy to grow, even for inexperienced gardeners. Plus they're awesome to look at'

https://www.apartmen...ushrooms-260158

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 21 December 2020 - 09:52 PM

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#2293 User is offline   Malankazooie 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 10:00 PM

I heard the news while driving in about the South Africa variant. Is that the same one that is hitting the UK hard too? I know flights and travel in the UK has been clamped down. Is that happening in South Africa? The news also mentioned that this variant is affecting demographic that is younger more severely. Which I'm not sure how to read that, other then younger population is more irresponsible when it comes to following guidelines (masks, social distancing, and so forth).

This post has been edited by Malankazooie: 21 December 2020 - 10:01 PM

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#2294 User is offline   Macros 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 10:02 PM

View PostTheRemovalProcess, on 21 December 2020 - 09:48 PM, said:

The situation in South Africa has been dire, with the new variant being 70% more contagious. Our second wave has just begun and it’s enormous. Yet, despite this, the even bigger tide is of the numbers of idiots who are anti-maskers and buying into all sorts of conspiracy theory. Worse yet, these seem to be the same South Africans who have become even more xenophobic and nationalistic in the last few years. It’s real shit at the moment. We won’t even get the vaccine any time soon either.



Shit, my in-laws are South African, her folks are talking about flying down in the new year to spend a few months there (completely insane I know) to help out with a new kid in the family and the like
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#2295 User is offline   amphibian 

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Posted 21 December 2020 - 10:55 PM

It would be cheaper and more helpful/health-conscious to hire a local person to be a nanny for the baby than to go to South Africa and risk everything.
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#2296 User is offline   Macros 

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Posted 22 December 2020 - 06:33 AM

Oh I agree 100%
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#2297 User is offline   Maark Abbott 

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Posted 22 December 2020 - 08:54 AM

View PostMezla PigDog, on 21 December 2020 - 01:23 PM, said:

Good luck to your sister.

Yeah, Macron banning freight for 2 days will give them the perfect place to put the blame. The French. The papers will lap that one up.


If you ever played Dragon Age 1, my sister is basically Shale, so she'll be fine. It's the squishy things I'm worried for.

And yeah, the papers will blame the French, the breklets will seethe and rage against the outsider, all whilst oblivious to the fact that we told them in 2016 that it would end up in chaos. Oh well...



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#2298 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 22 December 2020 - 03:47 PM

'BioNTech Says New Vaccine for Mutant Coronavirus Strain Would Only Take Weeks

[...] BioNTech—the firm that created the first authorized COVID-19 vaccine in partnership with Pfizer—said Tuesday that its coronavirus vaccine will almost certainly still work against the new variant, and, even if it didn’t, a new version could be created within six weeks. “The likelihood that our vaccine will work is relatively high,” said CEO Ugur Sahin. He then explained that, if it’s discovered that the vaccine doesn’t work against the variant, they could simply replace one mutation with another while the main “messenger” molecule would remain the same. However, a tweaked vaccine may need to regain approval from medical regulators, which would cause further delay.'

https://www.thedaily...-weeks?ref=home
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#2299 User is offline   Cause 

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Posted 22 December 2020 - 05:01 PM

I feel out of touch with South Africa, so many of the news sites I used to visit now paywall the most interesting article but apparently our version of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court said something about vaccines being the work of the devil. So South Africa has that to look forward to
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#2300 User is offline   Cause 

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Posted 23 December 2020 - 01:32 AM

Thank god I didn’t go home. South Africa has a new variant of its own and its being hit by the flight ban hammer all the over the place. So that’s at least 2 new mutations of covid that are more virulent. Need those vaccines ASAP and we will be stuck with covid for years to come it seems
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