Malazan Empire: Mafia 146 - The Benses V - Malazan Empire

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Mafia 146 - The Benses V Something Special - Game Thread

#161 User is offline   Ay Estos 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:46 PM

View PostTennes, on 08 November 2017 - 08:35 PM, said:

View PostAy Estos, on 08 November 2017 - 08:31 PM, said:

View PostEldat Pressen, on 08 November 2017 - 08:24 PM, said:

View PostJalan, on 08 November 2017 - 07:29 PM, said:

View PostJalan, on 08 November 2017 - 06:39 PM, said:

How likely is it that Uncle Ben targetted Big Ben on night zero? Because if he didn't and the symp or some stupid town pretend to be muted alongside a player that's actually muted it created a perfect smokescreen for the first couple of days.



View PostAy Estos, on 08 November 2017 - 07:24 PM, said:

So... why don't we just vote one of them out today, then the other tomorrow?


remove vote
vote Anomandaris


So you want to use the smokescreen to set up two lynches in a row?

vote Ay Estos


That seems to be my impression of events as well.

vote Ay Estos


Interesting that you're jumping so quickly onto an easy train.


One vote a train does not make.


Oh please, like jumping on the guy that suggested lining up 2 votes in a row isn't an easy train? There's not a single newbie in that signup list, who do you think you're talking to?

#162 User is offline   Dejim Nebrahl 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:48 PM

View PostOsseric, on 08 November 2017 - 08:36 PM, said:

So here's a theory. Big Ben didn't think that there would be an hour zero silence and thought he might be clever and pretend to be silenced. However, uncle Bennie did silence someone and now Big Ben is in trouble.

Not terrible trouble because if he gets lynched he will just move. Which is why it may have been worth the risk to take day 1. Worst case you get caught and shift... Best case you make yourself look more innocent if you don't get caught.

Middle chance that this move gets 1 towny lynched day 1 and you have to shift on day 2.

Thoughts?



My only thought is that I feel like I've heard this somewhere else already...


View PostDejim Nebrahl, on 08 November 2017 - 04:12 PM, said:

Okay, the one thing that I can come up with is that one of them did not think there would be a day 1 silencing, so decided to pretend thinking they'd be the only one 'silenced'. In which case the fake would have to be Anomandaris (unless Hanas didn't seen Ano's post before doing his own).



View PostDejim Nebrahl, on 08 November 2017 - 04:26 PM, said:

View PostThyrllan, on 08 November 2017 - 04:16 PM, said:

Yeah, I am inclined to agree, Hanas seems to be really doubling down on the silencing thing and Ano hasn't shown up again.


But who would fake it? Hopefully not a town member. Uncle Ben wouldn't do it, because they would know there would be a day 1 silencing. Which only realistically leaves Big Ben as the faker - barring idiocy.


#163 User is offline   Osseric 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:50 PM

View PostPath-Shaper, on 07 November 2017 - 09:13 AM, said:

Game mechanics and roles:
The Benses (evil team)

One of each of the following roles WILL be present:

Big Ben (killer) –

Uncle Ben (symp)


******

Innocents (good team)

Any combination of the following roles will be used. No role not described here will be used.
Upon investigation/CF, any of these will come up as "Innocent"

Dead Nobody: Once you were alive, and then you died. You have no special power, nothing special happened to you until you became drafted by force for this mission. Next time you see Hood in his realm, looking pissed, you'll know not to come and "check it out".

Vig: In your previous life, you were a powerful mercenary. However, you learned one day never to play baseball with a Malazan Sapper prisoner, specially if he supplies the ball. You have a vig kill that you can use once, at the night of your choice, during the game.

Healer: In your previous life, you were a wandering surgeon, offering your services in exchange for food and shelter. However, you learned one day that "Please, hand me this scalpel" and "I want to have sex with your mother" differ, in a small Seven Cities dialect, by one accent. Your mastering of Denul allows you to heal one player per night. Note: this skill does not affect Uncle Ben's silencing ability.

Finder: In a previous life, you were yourself a practitioner of Mockra. However, you learned one day why there was no first-hand report of what happens if you look in a mirror and try to convince yourself that you do NOT possess knowledge of Mockra. Despite the paradox-induced head explosion, you retain your old knowledge, and by focusing on one player per night, you can determine if this player is Big Ben or not.

Guard: In a previous life, you were a guard in the Seguleh Imperial Harem. However, you learned one day that when the queen says "Well, fuck me, my husband is home early for once", it should NOT be understood as an order. Every night, you chose the name of one player to guard. This player will be prevented to perform a night action for this night. If this player is part of a pair whose partner is still alive, the night action is not blocked.

Note: Any of these roles can exist as a PAIR. If this is the case, and the pair is roled, they have together ONE action per night, that they must agree on. Note that pair of Vigs have 2 night kills at their disposition, although they can't use both in the same night.

For all pairs: You can communicate off-thread at all times. For a night action to be accepted, if must be confirmed by BOTH players (exception: if a provisional was been sent by both players, it can be confirmed by only one player).

If one of the players from a pair becomes Big Ben, the other remains unaware, and stays in the good team with corresponding winning conditions. It is possible for a pair to target one of the two players from the pair as long as both agree.

If only one from a pair is still alive, and becomes Big Ben, he keeps his other power to use as he pleases. Exception: if he is the lone member of a vig team with vig kills left, he loses the vig kills since he’s already killing at night. (If he’s part of a vig pair, he’s welcome to use the vig kills as long as his partner agrees ;))


Everyone is this unless of course you're not

Dead Nobody: Once you were alive, and then you died. You have no special power, nothing special happened to you until you became drafted by force for this mission. Next time you see Hood in his realm, looking pissed, you'll know not to come and "check it out".


Emphasis mine

#164 User is offline   Tennes 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:53 PM

Emphasis is definitely yours. Don't get what you are emphasizing for.The way I read that is: if there is one vig, there is one night kill from town PER GAME. If there are two, then there are two.

Other than that, I fail to see the relevance to our current overblown predicament.

#165 User is offline   Osseric 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:54 PM

View PostDejim Nebrahl, on 08 November 2017 - 08:48 PM, said:



My only thought is that I feel like I've heard this somewhere else already...




fair enough. I added the risk/reward analysis to my post which makes mine better. ;)

#166 User is offline   Tennes 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:54 PM

View PostDejim Nebrahl, on 08 November 2017 - 08:48 PM, said:

View PostOsseric, on 08 November 2017 - 08:36 PM, said:

So here's a theory. Big Ben didn't think that there would be an hour zero silence and thought he might be clever and pretend to be silenced. However, uncle Bennie did silence someone and now Big Ben is in trouble.

Not terrible trouble because if he gets lynched he will just move. Which is why it may have been worth the risk to take day 1. Worst case you get caught and shift... Best case you make yourself look more innocent if you don't get caught.

Middle chance that this move gets 1 towny lynched day 1 and you have to shift on day 2.

Thoughts?



My only thought is that I feel like I've heard this somewhere else already...


View PostDejim Nebrahl, on 08 November 2017 - 04:12 PM, said:

Okay, the one thing that I can come up with is that one of them did not think there would be a day 1 silencing, so decided to pretend thinking they'd be the only one 'silenced'. In which case the fake would have to be Anomandaris (unless Hanas didn't seen Ano's post before doing his own).



View PostDejim Nebrahl, on 08 November 2017 - 04:26 PM, said:

View PostThyrllan, on 08 November 2017 - 04:16 PM, said:

Yeah, I am inclined to agree, Hanas seems to be really doubling down on the silencing thing and Ano hasn't shown up again.


But who would fake it? Hopefully not a town member. Uncle Ben wouldn't do it, because they would know there would be a day 1 silencing. Which only realistically leaves Big Ben as the faker - barring idiocy.



And both times it sounds like a good theory.

#167 User is offline   Tennes 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:55 PM

View PostOsseric, on 08 November 2017 - 08:54 PM, said:

View PostDejim Nebrahl, on 08 November 2017 - 08:48 PM, said:



My only thought is that I feel like I've heard this somewhere else already...




fair enough. I added the risk/reward analysis to my post which makes mine better. ;)


Not without odds ratios and confidence intervals.

#168 User is offline   Merrid 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:57 PM

View PostTennes, on 08 November 2017 - 08:30 PM, said:

View PostMerrid, on 08 November 2017 - 08:27 PM, said:

View PostTennes, on 08 November 2017 - 08:24 PM, said:

View PostMerrid, on 08 November 2017 - 08:18 PM, said:

View PostTennes, on 08 November 2017 - 08:14 PM, said:

View PostAy Estos, on 08 November 2017 - 08:07 PM, said:

View PostJalan, on 08 November 2017 - 07:29 PM, said:

View PostJalan, on 08 November 2017 - 06:39 PM, said:

How likely is it that Uncle Ben targetted Big Ben on night zero? Because if he didn't and the symp or some stupid town pretend to be muted alongside a player that's actually muted it created a perfect smokescreen for the first couple of days.



View PostAy Estos, on 08 November 2017 - 07:24 PM, said:

So... why don't we just vote one of them out today, then the other tomorrow?


remove vote
vote Anomandaris


So you want to use the smokescreen to set up two lynches in a row?

vote Ay Estos


LoL, I guess I should have figured someone would jump on me for that, but hey, what can ya do when everyone's paranoid.

My suggestion was simply that, a suggestion. That being said, if we don't do SOMETHING about these two silenced players to find out if one is lying, then it's just going to be a thorn in our sides throughout the whole game. Everyone's going to constantly refer to this Day 1 crap for reasons why one or the other is suspicious.

Look at it this way - if one of them is scum trying to weasel their way out of a lynch using the WIFOM a fake silencing is creating, then lynching them both ensures we lynch that scum. If they are both town, then whichever one is not actually silenced would have to come out and say it or get lynched - given they're a town player being an idiot for doing this in the first place, well, I'd rather get rid of the idiots early.

Lynch me if you must for suggesting it, but I still think lynching them both is a better idea than letting this fester throughout the whole game.


See this same exchange nearly every game. Always looks the same for the most part as well. Yawn.



Now go through all the previous Benses games and check if scum EVER silenced themselves on Day1

What is the "n" of that study, 3? Highly doubt that study would have sufficient power to generate a relevant p value.



We'll tweak the ANOVAs until SOMETHING works.


Redulplicating data is definitely the way to go if you want numbers.


This must happen.


For science

#169 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:57 PM

It is Day 1. 25 hours and 28 minutes remaining

16 Players still alive: Anomandaris, Aranatha, Ay Estos, Dejim Nebrahl, Eldat Pressen, Fanderay, Hanas, Jalan, Kalse, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Osseric, Ruse, Skintick, Tennes, Thyrllan

9 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Anomandaris ( Tennes, Ay Estos )
1 Vote for Hanas ( Dejim Nebrahl )
1 Vote for Merrid ( Kalse )
2 Votes for Ay Estos ( Jalan, Eldat Pressen )

Players not voted: Anomandaris, Aranatha, Fanderay, Hanas, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Osseric, Ruse, Skintick, Thyrllan
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#170 User is offline   Osseric 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:57 PM

View PostTennes, on 08 November 2017 - 08:53 PM, said:

Emphasis is definitely yours. Don't get what you are emphasizing for.The way I read that is: if there is one vig, there is one night kill from town PER GAME. If there are two, then there are two.

Other than that, I fail to see the relevance to our current overblown predicament.


(sigh)

first emphasis says - One of each scum role will be present

second emphasis - shows how for town ONLY there will be a possiblility of a pair and if that pair were to act - only 1 single action would be valid

this shows that there will only be 1 UB

But just in case, if there were 2 paired UB's they would still only have 1 action. This would still not allow for 2 people to be silenced at the same time.


(/sigh)

#171 User is offline   Merrid 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:57 PM

View PostTennes, on 08 November 2017 - 08:53 PM, said:

Emphasis is definitely yours. Don't get what you are emphasizing for.The way I read that is: if there is one vig, there is one night kill from town PER GAME. If there are two, then there are two.

Other than that, I fail to see the relevance to our current overblown predicament.


He is suggesting we may have paired UBs

#172 User is offline   Merrid 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:58 PM

;) which is dumb, BTW, as far as I'm concerned

(I'm sticking to the no editing rule)

#173 User is offline   Osseric 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:59 PM

View PostMerrid, on 08 November 2017 - 08:58 PM, said:

:) which is dumb, BTW, as far as I'm concerned

(I'm sticking to the no editing rule)


No I'm not

And your mom is dumb!

;)

#174 User is offline   Tennes 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 09:01 PM

Ah, the dumb-ness of said scenario helped it bypass my filters. Apologies. I will try to drink more next time before reviewing these ideas.







I am kind of being a dick this game, aren't I?









And no, I would not like to be part of the inevitable feed bag of my kind downstream.

#175 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 09:02 PM

It is Day 1. 25 hours and 23 minutes remaining

16 Players still alive: Anomandaris, Aranatha, Ay Estos, Dejim Nebrahl, Eldat Pressen, Fanderay, Hanas, Jalan, Kalse, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Osseric, Ruse, Skintick, Tennes, Thyrllan

9 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

3 Votes for Anomandaris ( Tennes, Ay Estos, Hanas )
1 Vote for Merrid ( Kalse )
2 Votes for Ay Estos ( Jalan, Eldat Pressen )
1 Vote for Hanas ( Dejim Nebrahl )

Players not voted: Anomandaris, Aranatha, Fanderay, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Osseric, Ruse, Skintick, Thyrllan
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#176 User is offline   Tennes 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 09:02 PM

View PostOsseric, on 08 November 2017 - 08:59 PM, said:

View PostMerrid, on 08 November 2017 - 08:58 PM, said:

:) which is dumb, BTW, as far as I'm concerned

(I'm sticking to the no editing rule)


No I'm not

And your mom is dumb!

;)


Excellent point. His mom has everything to do with your intelligence. Butterfly effect and all.

#177 User is offline   Osseric 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 09:08 PM

View PostTennes, on 08 November 2017 - 09:02 PM, said:

View PostOsseric, on 08 November 2017 - 08:59 PM, said:

View PostMerrid, on 08 November 2017 - 08:58 PM, said:

:) which is dumb, BTW, as far as I'm concerned

(I'm sticking to the no editing rule)


No I'm not

And your mom is dumb!

;)


Excellent point. His mom has everything to do with your intelligence. Butterfly effect and all.


Thanks for contributing

and where did our silenced boys/girls go?

I think we have struck a tender spot?

#178 User is offline   Osseric 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 09:10 PM

View PostTennes, on 08 November 2017 - 09:01 PM, said:



I am kind of being a dick this game, aren't I?





Yes. Do you need a safe space to talk about it?

#179 User is offline   Tennes 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 09:13 PM

View PostOsseric, on 08 November 2017 - 09:10 PM, said:

View PostTennes, on 08 November 2017 - 09:01 PM, said:



I am kind of being a dick this game, aren't I?





Yes. Do you need a safe space to talk about it?


Providing a void to fill sounds strangely innuendo. I am quite content expressing my thoughts freely and openly.

#180 User is offline   Osseric 

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 09:14 PM

View PostPath-Shaper, on 08 November 2017 - 08:57 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 25 hours and 28 minutes remaining

16 Players still alive: Anomandaris, Aranatha, Ay Estos, Dejim Nebrahl, Eldat Pressen, Fanderay, Hanas, Jalan, Kalse, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Osseric, Ruse, Skintick, Tennes, Thyrllan

9 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Anomandaris ( Tennes, Ay Estos )
1 Vote for Hanas ( Dejim Nebrahl )
1 Vote for Merrid ( Kalse )
2 Votes for Ay Estos ( Jalan, Eldat Pressen )

Players not voted: Anomandaris, Aranatha, Fanderay, Hanas, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Osseric, Ruse, Skintick, Thyrllan



View PostPath-Shaper, on 08 November 2017 - 09:02 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 25 hours and 23 minutes remaining

16 Players still alive: Anomandaris, Aranatha, Ay Estos, Dejim Nebrahl, Eldat Pressen, Fanderay, Hanas, Jalan, Kalse, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Osseric, Ruse, Skintick, Tennes, Thyrllan

9 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

3 Votes for Anomandaris ( Tennes, Ay Estos, Hanas )
1 Vote for Merrid ( Kalse )
2 Votes for Ay Estos ( Jalan, Eldat Pressen )
1 Vote for Hanas ( Dejim Nebrahl )

Players not voted: Anomandaris, Aranatha, Fanderay, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Osseric, Ruse, Skintick, Thyrllan



Did I miss the Hanas vote?

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