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Mafia 145.9 - Scumhunt Game Thread

#241 User is offline   Nimander Golit 

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 06:48 PM

View PostKalse, on 27 October 2017 - 06:25 PM, said:

Ng, not all that clear. Firstly, Jalan hit l-2 first for about an hour. No nibbles, no one put him at l-1. So then Aranatha hits the same threshold. Again nothing. So this is what I am not sure of. If both Jalan and Aranatha are inno, why didn't scum jump on the chance to nix them. Conversely, if they are both scum, does the lack of lynch equal protection. It is odd behavior, and i am assuming that part of the reason no one put down the 5th vote was not wanting to come under suspicion, at least not before it was beneficial.

We had vote stalling on two people. That is very odd don't you think?


I agree with that entirely. However, I also see how you (as potential scum) would benefit by withholding your vote and presenting us with this WIFOM shitstorm all pretty and tied up with a bow. In my hypothesis, you benefit JUST as much from the stalled lynch as Aranatha, Jalan, or Tennes potentially do. There's at least one scum in that mix.

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 09:32 PM

It is Day 3. The clock has been frozen with 17 Hours and 28 Minutes remaining.

9 Players still alive: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Eldat Pressen, Jalan, Kalse, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Skintick, Tennes

5 votes to lynch, 5 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Tennes ( Kalse, Eldat Pressen )
1 Vote for Kalse ( Tennes )

Players not voted: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Jalan, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Skintick
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#243 User is offline   Skintick 

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Posted 28 October 2017 - 12:46 AM

Been out all day, but will get caught up over the weekend.

#244 User is offline   Aranatha 

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Posted 28 October 2017 - 12:19 PM

View PostKalse, on 27 October 2017 - 06:25 PM, said:

View PostOsseric, on 26 October 2017 - 09:30 PM, said:

View PostJalan, on 25 October 2017 - 06:32 PM, said:

View PostEldat Pressen, on 25 October 2017 - 03:01 PM, said:

I do wonder if the lynch of Dejim, the lack of other options and the kill of Thyr was protection of Jalan or Tennes but based off the votes and the train I still want to vote Ay Estos. Vote Ay EstosKalse, why did you think that Dejim's vote on Jalan was distancing?Does anyone find value in scum not wanting to lynch Dejim? ie why Aranatha did what they did? If Osseric was not around then the lynch would have failed.What are people's thoughts on the reasoning for Dejim's votes? ie those who voted for the signalling comments compared to those who voted for his not questioning the question mark.
I'm not sure why I or anyone else would need protecting from a Mac OMGUS vote.I'm still not sure what your issue with Ay is.I think my reasoning was pretty good for D1. It looked like a slip, very early in game. Of course it was wrong but hindsight is all well and good. Also can you imaging going into endgame with that hanging over him? He further compounded the mistake with the signalling which on an "obvious setup" shouldn't have been there.Value to scum not wanting to lynch him is obviously because if he then went to endgame he'd be a pretty easy case to drive through.If you're positing that Aranatha messed up spelling because they're scum then why aren't you voting for them?I've had a shit days sleep and have started early on the coffee as a result, don't expect too much in the way of coherence from me till later in the Day.
found itVote Jalan



View PostOsseric, on 26 October 2017 - 10:36 PM, said:

AH the rock smells what your cooking. I just reread the vote count. my voting Janal right after you, to take him to L-2 helps you out, but to apperar that it doesn't, you cast doubt on my integrity. Okay I will play balremove votevote aranathaNow it's all even and we can leave it up to the night bears.


Ng, not all that clear. Firstly, Jalan hit l-2 first for about an hour. No nibbles, no one put him at l-1. So then Aranatha hits the same threshold. Again nothing. So this is what I am not sure of. If both Jalan and Aranatha are inno, why didn't scum jump on the chance to nix them. Conversely, if they are both scum, does the lack of lynch equal protection. It is odd behavior, and i am assuming that part of the reason no one put down the 5th vote was not wanting to come under suspicion, at least not before it was beneficial.

We had vote stalling on two people. That is very odd don't you think?


I mostly agree with your assesment of Tennes's end of D2 play and knowing I'm inno this is pretty much why I think that both Tennes and Jalan are scum. Tennes's play was scummy in itself. Saying you suspect x and then vote y is a shitty distancing from x, but I think he partly did it to justify waiting with his vote, which in turn he wanted to do because he didn't want to be seen as trying to drive a lynch. If he voted me straight of the bat and I was lynched, the next day everyone would look at the lynch and noticed there was influence that changed it from Jalan to me and he'd be among the driving force of it. This way he could also still vote for Jalan and take the distancing further than mere voicing of suspicions if the tide turned.
If Jalan was innocent, Tennes would have voted way earlier, because if he then was seen as driving force it wouldn't matter because the person he'd be allegedly defending wasn't scum.

#245 User is offline   Merrid 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 09:26 AM

Killing Osseric meant killing off one of those willing to vote for Aranatha. That's the first thing I'd note. Reading through what I missed over the weekend now.

#246 User is offline   Merrid 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 09:35 AM

View PostKalse, on 27 October 2017 - 03:01 PM, said:

View PostTennes, on 27 October 2017 - 01:58 AM, said:

both cases are thin.

I'd be leaning towards testing Jalan, but the math is not good

vote Aranatha

I'm still around till timeout, if anyone has other suggestions.

24 minutes till time out before bringing Aranatha to L-1. And then expressing outrage. That is stalling and using the moment to make yourself seem town. Almost laughably transparent.



The 'other suggestions' part does not look great for Tennes.

#247 User is offline   Merrid 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 09:42 AM

View PostNimander Golit, on 27 October 2017 - 06:48 PM, said:

View PostKalse, on 27 October 2017 - 06:25 PM, said:

Ng, not all that clear. Firstly, Jalan hit l-2 first for about an hour. No nibbles, no one put him at l-1. So then Aranatha hits the same threshold. Again nothing. So this is what I am not sure of. If both Jalan and Aranatha are inno, why didn't scum jump on the chance to nix them. Conversely, if they are both scum, does the lack of lynch equal protection. It is odd behavior, and i am assuming that part of the reason no one put down the 5th vote was not wanting to come under suspicion, at least not before it was beneficial.

We had vote stalling on two people. That is very odd don't you think?


I agree with that entirely. However, I also see how you (as potential scum) would benefit by withholding your vote and presenting us with this WIFOM shitstorm all pretty and tied up with a bow. In my hypothesis, you benefit JUST as much from the stalled lynch as Aranatha, Jalan, or Tennes potentially do. There's at least one scum in that mix.



Agreed. I currently think that Tennes, scum or not, has posted a pretty reasonable defense so far of their play the previous day. So a Tennes lynch for me could still go either way. I am extremely reticent, moreover, to focus on a third target when the lynch most likely stalled because at least one of Jalan or Aranatha is scum. I'd prefer to try again on one of those two.

#248 User is offline   Merrid 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 09:47 AM

View PostAranatha, on 28 October 2017 - 12:19 PM, said:

View PostKalse, on 27 October 2017 - 06:25 PM, said:

View PostOsseric, on 26 October 2017 - 09:30 PM, said:

View PostJalan, on 25 October 2017 - 06:32 PM, said:

View PostEldat Pressen, on 25 October 2017 - 03:01 PM, said:

I do wonder if the lynch of Dejim, the lack of other options and the kill of Thyr was protection of Jalan or Tennes but based off the votes and the train I still want to vote Ay Estos. Vote Ay EstosKalse, why did you think that Dejim's vote on Jalan was distancing?Does anyone find value in scum not wanting to lynch Dejim? ie why Aranatha did what they did? If Osseric was not around then the lynch would have failed.What are people's thoughts on the reasoning for Dejim's votes? ie those who voted for the signalling comments compared to those who voted for his not questioning the question mark.
I'm not sure why I or anyone else would need protecting from a Mac OMGUS vote.I'm still not sure what your issue with Ay is.I think my reasoning was pretty good for D1. It looked like a slip, very early in game. Of course it was wrong but hindsight is all well and good. Also can you imaging going into endgame with that hanging over him? He further compounded the mistake with the signalling which on an "obvious setup" shouldn't have been there.Value to scum not wanting to lynch him is obviously because if he then went to endgame he'd be a pretty easy case to drive through.If you're positing that Aranatha messed up spelling because they're scum then why aren't you voting for them?I've had a shit days sleep and have started early on the coffee as a result, don't expect too much in the way of coherence from me till later in the Day.
found itVote Jalan



View PostOsseric, on 26 October 2017 - 10:36 PM, said:

AH the rock smells what your cooking. I just reread the vote count. my voting Janal right after you, to take him to L-2 helps you out, but to apperar that it doesn't, you cast doubt on my integrity. Okay I will play balremove votevote aranathaNow it's all even and we can leave it up to the night bears.


Ng, not all that clear. Firstly, Jalan hit l-2 first for about an hour. No nibbles, no one put him at l-1. So then Aranatha hits the same threshold. Again nothing. So this is what I am not sure of. If both Jalan and Aranatha are inno, why didn't scum jump on the chance to nix them. Conversely, if they are both scum, does the lack of lynch equal protection. It is odd behavior, and i am assuming that part of the reason no one put down the 5th vote was not wanting to come under suspicion, at least not before it was beneficial.

We had vote stalling on two people. That is very odd don't you think?


I mostly agree with your assesment of Tennes's end of D2 play and knowing I'm inno this is pretty much why I think that both Tennes and Jalan are scum. Tennes's play was scummy in itself. Saying you suspect x and then vote y is a shitty distancing from x, but I think he partly did it to justify waiting with his vote, which in turn he wanted to do because he didn't want to be seen as trying to drive a lynch. If he voted me straight of the bat and I was lynched, the next day everyone would look at the lynch and noticed there was influence that changed it from Jalan to me and he'd be among the driving force of it. This way he could also still vote for Jalan and take the distancing further than mere voicing of suspicions if the tide turned.
If Jalan was innocent, Tennes would have voted way earlier, because if he then was seen as driving force it wouldn't matter because the person he'd be allegedly defending wasn't scum.



I'm not sure I quite follow the reasoning here. You say if Jalan was inno, then Tennes would have voted for them much earlier. But you also say you are inno, and that's why Tennes waited so long before finally voting for you. So on the one hand, being inno means Tennes would jump straight away, but on the other, it explains why Tennes waited so long before voting? The two seem to contradict each other.

#249 User is offline   Aranatha 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 10:39 AM

View PostMerrid, on 30 October 2017 - 09:47 AM, said:

View PostAranatha, on 28 October 2017 - 12:19 PM, said:

View PostKalse, on 27 October 2017 - 06:25 PM, said:

View PostOsseric, on 26 October 2017 - 09:30 PM, said:

View PostJalan, on 25 October 2017 - 06:32 PM, said:

View PostEldat Pressen, on 25 October 2017 - 03:01 PM, said:

I do wonder if the lynch of Dejim, the lack of other options and the kill of Thyr was protection of Jalan or Tennes but based off the votes and the train I still want to vote Ay Estos. Vote Ay EstosKalse, why did you think that Dejim's vote on Jalan was distancing?Does anyone find value in scum not wanting to lynch Dejim? ie why Aranatha did what they did? If Osseric was not around then the lynch would have failed.What are people's thoughts on the reasoning for Dejim's votes? ie those who voted for the signalling comments compared to those who voted for his not questioning the question mark.
I'm not sure why I or anyone else would need protecting from a Mac OMGUS vote.I'm still not sure what your issue with Ay is.I think my reasoning was pretty good for D1. It looked like a slip, very early in game. Of course it was wrong but hindsight is all well and good. Also can you imaging going into endgame with that hanging over him? He further compounded the mistake with the signalling which on an "obvious setup" shouldn't have been there.Value to scum not wanting to lynch him is obviously because if he then went to endgame he'd be a pretty easy case to drive through.If you're positing that Aranatha messed up spelling because they're scum then why aren't you voting for them?I've had a shit days sleep and have started early on the coffee as a result, don't expect too much in the way of coherence from me till later in the Day.
found itVote Jalan



View PostOsseric, on 26 October 2017 - 10:36 PM, said:

AH the rock smells what your cooking. I just reread the vote count. my voting Janal right after you, to take him to L-2 helps you out, but to apperar that it doesn't, you cast doubt on my integrity. Okay I will play balremove votevote aranathaNow it's all even and we can leave it up to the night bears.


Ng, not all that clear. Firstly, Jalan hit l-2 first for about an hour. No nibbles, no one put him at l-1. So then Aranatha hits the same threshold. Again nothing. So this is what I am not sure of. If both Jalan and Aranatha are inno, why didn't scum jump on the chance to nix them. Conversely, if they are both scum, does the lack of lynch equal protection. It is odd behavior, and i am assuming that part of the reason no one put down the 5th vote was not wanting to come under suspicion, at least not before it was beneficial.

We had vote stalling on two people. That is very odd don't you think?


I mostly agree with your assesment of Tennes's end of D2 play and knowing I'm inno this is pretty much why I think that both Tennes and Jalan are scum. Tennes's play was scummy in itself. Saying you suspect x and then vote y is a shitty distancing from x, but I think he partly did it to justify waiting with his vote, which in turn he wanted to do because he didn't want to be seen as trying to drive a lynch. If he voted me straight of the bat and I was lynched, the next day everyone would look at the lynch and noticed there was influence that changed it from Jalan to me and he'd be among the driving force of it. This way he could also still vote for Jalan and take the distancing further than mere voicing of suspicions if the tide turned.
If Jalan was innocent, Tennes would have voted way earlier, because if he then was seen as driving force it wouldn't matter because the person he'd be allegedly defending wasn't scum.



I'm not sure I quite follow the reasoning here. You say if Jalan was inno, then Tennes would have voted for them much earlier. But you also say you are inno, and that's why Tennes waited so long before finally voting for you. So on the one hand, being inno means Tennes would jump straight away, but on the other, it explains why Tennes waited so long before voting? The two seem to contradict each other.



If Tennes voted straight away and if any one of us got lynched and cfed innovative, the next day people would look at the lynch and see that he drove the lynch from the other person and would suspect the other person because Tennes defended him. Now if Jalan was inno Tennes wouldn't have to care, but if he's scum he'd want to avoid this situation(or lynching his fellow scum).

#250 User is offline   Eldat Pressen 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 10:59 AM

I'm around today

#251 User is offline   Aranatha 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 12:19 PM

View PostEldat Pressen, on 30 October 2017 - 10:59 AM, said:

I'm around today


That's nice of you

#252 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 01:58 PM

It is Day 3. 17 hours and 28 minutes remaining

9 Players still alive: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Eldat Pressen, Jalan, Kalse, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Skintick, Tennes

5 votes to lynch, 5 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Tennes ( Kalse, Eldat Pressen )
1 Vote for Kalse ( Tennes )

Players not voted: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Jalan, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Skintick
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#253 User is offline   Kalse 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 02:05 PM

View PostAranatha, on 30 October 2017 - 10:39 AM, said:

View PostMerrid, on 30 October 2017 - 09:47 AM, said:

View PostAranatha, on 28 October 2017 - 12:19 PM, said:

View PostKalse, on 27 October 2017 - 06:25 PM, said:

View PostOsseric, on 26 October 2017 - 09:30 PM, said:

View PostJalan, on 25 October 2017 - 06:32 PM, said:

View PostEldat Pressen, on 25 October 2017 - 03:01 PM, said:

I do wonder if the lynch of Dejim, the lack of other options and the kill of Thyr was protection of Jalan or Tennes but based off the votes and the train I still want to vote Ay Estos. Vote Ay EstosKalse, why did you think that Dejim's vote on Jalan was distancing?Does anyone find value in scum not wanting to lynch Dejim? ie why Aranatha did what they did? If Osseric was not around then the lynch would have failed.What are people's thoughts on the reasoning for Dejim's votes? ie those who voted for the signalling comments compared to those who voted for his not questioning the question mark.
I'm not sure why I or anyone else would need protecting from a Mac OMGUS vote.I'm still not sure what your issue with Ay is.I think my reasoning was pretty good for D1. It looked like a slip, very early in game. Of course it was wrong but hindsight is all well and good. Also can you imaging going into endgame with that hanging over him? He further compounded the mistake with the signalling which on an "obvious setup" shouldn't have been there.Value to scum not wanting to lynch him is obviously because if he then went to endgame he'd be a pretty easy case to drive through.If you're positing that Aranatha messed up spelling because they're scum then why aren't you voting for them?I've had a shit days sleep and have started early on the coffee as a result, don't expect too much in the way of coherence from me till later in the Day.
found itVote Jalan



View PostOsseric, on 26 October 2017 - 10:36 PM, said:

AH the rock smells what your cooking. I just reread the vote count. my voting Janal right after you, to take him to L-2 helps you out, but to apperar that it doesn't, you cast doubt on my integrity. Okay I will play balremove votevote aranathaNow it's all even and we can leave it up to the night bears.


Ng, not all that clear. Firstly, Jalan hit l-2 first for about an hour. No nibbles, no one put him at l-1. So then Aranatha hits the same threshold. Again nothing. So this is what I am not sure of. If both Jalan and Aranatha are inno, why didn't scum jump on the chance to nix them. Conversely, if they are both scum, does the lack of lynch equal protection. It is odd behavior, and i am assuming that part of the reason no one put down the 5th vote was not wanting to come under suspicion, at least not before it was beneficial.

We had vote stalling on two people. That is very odd don't you think?


I mostly agree with your assesment of Tennes's end of D2 play and knowing I'm inno this is pretty much why I think that both Tennes and Jalan are scum. Tennes's play was scummy in itself. Saying you suspect x and then vote y is a shitty distancing from x, but I think he partly did it to justify waiting with his vote, which in turn he wanted to do because he didn't want to be seen as trying to drive a lynch. If he voted me straight of the bat and I was lynched, the next day everyone would look at the lynch and noticed there was influence that changed it from Jalan to me and he'd be among the driving force of it. This way he could also still vote for Jalan and take the distancing further than mere voicing of suspicions if the tide turned.
If Jalan was innocent, Tennes would have voted way earlier, because if he then was seen as driving force it wouldn't matter because the person he'd be allegedly defending wasn't scum.



I'm not sure I quite follow the reasoning here. You say if Jalan was inno, then Tennes would have voted for them much earlier. But you also say you are inno, and that's why Tennes waited so long before finally voting for you. So on the one hand, being inno means Tennes would jump straight away, but on the other, it explains why Tennes waited so long before voting? The two seem to contradict each other.



If Tennes voted straight away and if any one of us got lynched and cfed innovative, the next day people would look at the lynch and see that he drove the lynch from the other person and would suspect the other person because Tennes defended him. Now if Jalan was inno Tennes wouldn't have to care, but if he's scum he'd want to avoid this situation(or lynching his fellow scum).

Which kind of proves my point about his vote being calculating. He dropped it with plenty of forethought and iintention.

#254 User is offline   Tennes 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 02:14 PM

I'll be too busy today to defend the "case" against me anymore than I already did. So when you inevitably allow Aranatha (the one who didn't get voted off) and Kalse (the one who didn't vote) convince you that "voting late is WAAAY scummier then not voting at all!" please do think of a plan "B" for when you see my inno CF.

#255 User is offline   Merrid 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 02:34 PM

I still need to read up on Jalan as I've mostly been focusing on Aranatha before and Tennes just today. After that (and work) I'll vote. As I said, my preference is to stick to one of the two who slipped the lynch the previous day. There's little doubt in me that at least one of them is scum.

#256 User is offline   Eldat Pressen 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 02:44 PM

Remove vote


10pm GMT is the last time i'll be posting today, so not sure whether or not I am going to miss end of day. Going to have a read again

#257 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 02:45 PM

It is Day 3. 16 hours and 41 minutes remaining

9 Players still alive: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Eldat Pressen, Jalan, Kalse, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Skintick, Tennes

5 votes to lynch, 5 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Tennes ( Kalse )
1 Vote for Kalse ( Tennes )

Players not voted: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Eldat Pressen, Jalan, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Skintick
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#258 User is offline   Eldat Pressen 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 02:49 PM

7:30 am is timeout then, so i'll do my best up until 22:00 then i'll try remember look at my phone first thing in case my vote is needed for the lynch.

#259 User is offline   Eldat Pressen 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 02:56 PM

Day one

Jalan, Tennes and Thyr engage in early mechanic speculation. Thyr dies night one.

This sort of thing distancing? Getting early interaction between two players? Maybe phrasing it wrong, but there are player that may look for lack of interaction on thread as a scum tell.Easy for Tennes and Jalan to do this when its something silly. Are there further instances of these two talking on thread other than here? I'll go look.

View PostTennes, on 23 October 2017 - 03:53 PM, said:

View PostJalan, on 23 October 2017 - 03:47 PM, said:

View PostPath-Shaper, on 23 October 2017 - 02:13 PM, said:

There are three paired(?) killers, a finder and a healer in the game.


So paired (tripleted?) or not? Because that'll be a big clue if we're looking for signalling


Maybe he meant 3 pairs of scum? :rolleyes:


#260 User is offline   Eldat Pressen 

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 03:06 PM

No, in terms of Tennes play, this early interaction is odd, I think they only ever quote one other person...

Examples

View PostTennes, on 24 October 2017 - 01:29 AM, said:

On a more serious note, I also feel the lizard-cat's lack of concern about the ambiguity of PS' initial set-up description is odd.




View PostTennes, on 24 October 2017 - 02:49 PM, said:

Okay, so the Ay thing is interested. Except it's implying that Ay is defending Jalan, without actually giving an opinion on whether Jalan is scum or not- only that by virtue of "defending" him Ay is scum.

On the other hand, the lizard-cat is all high and mighty about how "obvious" it is that the 3 killers all have off-thread comms, but then literally in the same paragraph he makes signalling accusations- in a game which he "obviously" realizes has no symps, and thus no need for signalling.

The Jalan and Ay thing may warrant a further look (I mean from where I'm sitting, Eldat is kinda shoving Jalan into the spotlight, then switching focus to Ay), but for now I can't ignore the lizard-cat's "obvious" lack of consistency.

vote Dejim Nebral

Obviously



View PostTennes, on 25 October 2017 - 07:29 PM, said:

Busy today, so don't have too many thoughts. Didn't expect Dejim to be maccy, tbh

Only thing that jumps out of the brief glance on the train is Ay's concern over the possibly-failed-due-to-misspelling lynch. Not sure if it's genuine town concern or scum trying to make sure an inno lynch goes through, though.

Busy w/ stuff, will try to take a better look @ the train in the evening after footy. But no guarantees that'll happen.




etc etc etc

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