Hmm, OK. It's possible that I might be overestimating my own importance here. I'll have a think about it.
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Right, I think I'm going to keep my heal on Mockra. I feel like there are good odds he gets targeted tonight, on the basis that they'll probably pick someone middle of the pack who doesn't seem like a symp. He's got about the right amount of posts and I think he sticks out as a probable RI.
As for who the killers are, I notice that Gamelon is squarely at the bottom of the top third of posters - always a good spot for scum to hide
.
ST
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Not sure what to think of Ultama's vote for AF. He's removing from someone with 2 votes to try to start a train on someone with no votes with less than an hour left in the day. It's not very helpful.
So could he be scum trying to draw heat away from his partner/master? If so, he'd have to be trying to direct heat away from TS/Pallid/Gamelon. It's probably not TS, since he already had his vote on him. But if it was Pallid, wouldn't he vote for Gamelon? And if it was Gamelon, wouldn't he vote for Pallid? Unless they're in it together? But that seems too good to be true.
ST
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I hate it when lynches are decided by who happens to be on the thread at the time...is it too much to ask for all players to be checking the thread 100% of the time so they can cast their votes?
(But seriously though, it feels like there's a lot of power in dropping your vote and then stepping back - makes it much harder for the people there at the end of the day to change the course you've set).
As it stands, I just hope the switches of Hanas and Ultama made it through in time. Not having a Day 1 lynch will really slow down town's game here.
ST
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Interesting NK - I guess that means that the scum are hunting for roles...and I'm not in the place they would normally expect to find them, which is nice
.
The CF suggests that Bek Okhan might be part of a lover pair - had a quick look in his early posts for codes but I'm not good enough at finding them to see if there's anything. (If there is one, it's probably either here or here). But it might be worth having a think about who else would fit the pattern of being a lover partner with BO in case it helps me PI anyone.
What's going on with Omtose? It looks as though his modkill timer should have popped by now, right? Shame to lose a player, but if they aren't showing up then they're dragging us down. Him being gone reduces our requirements for a lynch, which isn't a bad thing.
ST
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I'm nervous that I can't spot Macros - it tends to mean that he's smooth playing scum. Let's have a think over what we know so far:
Aparal Forge - Talkative. His one attempt at a case was a bit tenuous. Could be in a scum pairing with/symp for Gamelon.
Hanas - Smooth. Seemed to need a bit of prodding to actually put a vote down last night. He voted for Gamelon over Pallid/TS. Is that inno playing the odds, or scum who knows the best choice and picks it to blend in? I worry that he's in my blind spot because he seems to be playing the same way as me.
Gamelon - Nervous about him. My case was weak though, not sure it's going to stick. Might be worth shelving it until later, getting him involved in some stuff and seeing what else drops out. I don't like the way he answers pressure, seems too earnest.
Mockra - I thought the way he put some pressure on me on Day 1 was quite innocent. Interesting to see Hanas with the case on him though. I'm tempted to go along with it to see what falls out.
Ultama - Shifty. Lots of vote hopping towards the end of the day. Possible symp for Gamelon. Also thought he was being a bit 'go with the flow' earlier.
Tulas Shorn - What was all that fatalistic BS about? Most likely is RI being stupid, but back of my mind is a paired scum setup with him and someone else, where he gets talked off the ledge to make him appear innocent. It's a pretty risky gambit though. It would have to be one of Hanas and Gamelon as the other partner.
Alkend - Low posting but seems to be involved in all the interesting stuff. Caused the shift away from Gamelon by voting for Pallid. When I put a vote on him earlier I got basically no response...but it wasn't on there for that long. BO, Mockra, Gamelon and Ultama would have time to comment on it. Mockra's summary of options post could have been a way of burying it, so possible Mockra symping for Alkend?
Serc - Not done much. Need to do a reread and see if anything jumps out.
Omtose - About to be modkilled for inactivity. Can ignore for now.
So I'd probably arrange my suspicion tree like this:
Gamelon
Ultama, Aparal Forge, Alkend
Mockra, Hanas, Serc
Tulas Shorn
(Omtose doesn't make it onto the tree)
Off for a reread of Serc.
ST
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Protect Alkend
He's in the right demographic to draw an NK from a killer looking for roles.
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I'm really torn. On the one hand, I do like my hypothesis that Gamelon is the killer. He has been shifty, he has given excuses that I tend to associate with scum. On the other hand, I know that my guesses are at best only slightly better than random, an as such I need to bear in mind the Monty Hall Problem.
MHP says that I had a 1/11 (or possibly 2/11, depending on setup, but I think a killer + promotable symp combo is more likely here) chance of identifying Scum on Day 1, and therefore a 10/11 chance of picking on an inno. Now it's day 3 and a bunch of players have been eliminated, the chances of the scum being amongst those other players are still 10/11, but split between 6 players. Ergo, I bump up my chances from 1/11 to 5/33 (10/11 * 1/6) if I switch my guess to one of the other players. That's almost double!
So I should probably switch to someone else, at least for today. I can always go back to Gamelon on Day 4 if necessary.
ST
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That point about time of going to sleep was lame and I shouldn't have made it. If Gamelon really is from somewhere other than US/Europe/Australia, my apologies. I've been away a while and it used to be that the only players we had were from those places.
The dilemma I have here is that I find the case on Gamelon much more convincing than the one on Mockra. I think I'm predisposed to find Mockra town-ish because he started attacking me on Day 1, as counter-intuitive as that sounds. I get the points about him hedging on the hammer, but they don't really convince me just yet. Will have to mull it over some more.
And I need to come to a position on Ultama as well. Can't really get a read on him - he pushed AF hard the first two days and then pivoted to Mockra on Day 3. Maybe I should just try asking him if he feels any remorse about getting AF lynched.
In other news, I think I'm going to put in a provisional to:
Protect Omtose
Consider the axiom: RIs don't get replacements as late as Day 3, roles and scum do. (Not saying this is necessarily true, but it is a common sentiment). If scum believe in this axiom, then there are two possibilities: (1) Omtose is scum [in which case, who has been NKing everyone while he has been playing hooky?] or (2) he's not scum, in which case the killer will be curious and probably try out an NK.
I feel like the chances of (1) are fairly low at this point as I feel it's more likely that we have a killer-symp combo as opposed to a killer pair (in which case the other killer could be doing the NKs). As such, protecting Omtose seems like a reasonable attempt to head off an NK.
ST
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Interesting to see the on-thread reveal! I wasn't really expecting a Finder in the game (as generally a Healer/Finder combo is pretty OP), but I guess I'll have to adjust my provisional:
Protect Ultama
The flip side to this is that I'm assuming that for game balance purposes there must be paired killers plus a symp, so likely to be a bit more of this game to go!
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ARGH! Changed away from Omtose at the last minute
. Maybe the killer didn't have time to change their NK choice? It seems weird not to have picked Ultama. That could suggest that Hanas is the scum, since they were the only one that weren't around for the end of the day.
Protect Ultama
On that hypothesis.
Niggling at the back of my mind is a really ballsy manoeuvre for scum...dunno if they'd have played it this way, but it could be a game winner:
Ultama is in a scum pair with Mockra. They agree that Ultama will fake-reveal finder while selling out Mockra, PIing themselves in the process. Nobody is going to lynch Ultama now, which basically gives them a free pass until someone stops to wonder why they haven't been NKed yet. For now I'm going to keep it under wraps as a possibility, but if Ultama isn't the NK target tonight I'll start to wonder.
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Damn, I've really played today terribly. I mean, looking back over what I've posted I would find it hard to trust myself, let alone everyone else. Really wish I'd had a bit more time to do a proper reading of the thread, then I would have done a better job of it than all that garbled nonsense I've been putting out there.
ST
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Gah, I really wish that Ultama hadn't brought up the idea of a healer in the game as a reason for going to Night (or at least, not in the same post as revealing I'm town, anyway). It's not much of a stretch for scum to connect the dots between Ultama doing a find on me and Ultama being sure there is a healer to keep him safe.
Hoping to distance myself from the idea with my on thread post, even though I do think going to night would be good for town. But I need some enthusiastic assent from the other players to make it happen, because being for it would jump out a bit too much.
Alkend being against it surprises me a lot though - especially since he was talking about the existence of a healer earlier, you would have thought he'd be for it. Makes me think he could well be the scum (because if scum think there's a healer, they wouldn't want to go to night).
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A hypothesis has arrived at my brain:
- There is a town vig in play, and they used it on Omtose last night.
- The killer targeted Ultama and failed.
- The CF makes it look like the scum targeted Omtose.
This would fit quite neatly with Gamelon's play here if Gamelon was the vig - he asked on thread "Why didn't Ultama die from the NK?" as if he was sure that Omtose's death wasn't an NK. Also explains why he's so sure there is a healer in the game.
(To be fair though, it would also work well if Gamelon was scum since he would know that the NK failed).
Will have to think about this, and whether I should share it with the thread.
ST
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Protect Ultama
I was toying with putting it on myself, but it's more important to guarantee we get another find result. I figure Ultama can do that and I'll take the NK, then trust the rest of them to figure it out.
ST