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138 Death note Spoiler thread

#61 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 07 January 2017 - 11:19 PM

Killers' Convo 11

Spoiler

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#62 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 07 January 2017 - 11:20 PM

Killers' Convo 12

Spoiler

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#63 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 07 January 2017 - 11:20 PM

Killers' Convo 13

Spoiler

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#64 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 07 January 2017 - 11:21 PM

Killers' Convo 14

Spoiler

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#65 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 07 January 2017 - 11:22 PM

Killers' Convo 15

Spoiler

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#66 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 07 January 2017 - 11:23 PM

Killers' Convo 16

Spoiler

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#67 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 07 January 2017 - 11:23 PM

Killers' Convo 17

Spoiler

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#68 User is offline   Hanas 

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Posted 07 January 2017 - 11:50 PM

Might aswell get here me bothering Venge too

Spoiler


#69 User is offline   Sir Thursday 

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Posted 08 January 2017 - 01:30 AM

Hah, on Day 1 I was positive I was going to draw the NK that night. I spent quite a while fretting about it in the PMs. Seems that was a justified fear based on the killer convo! Glad your alting games led you down a different path.

I also seriously considered self-healing on N4 (which would have saved myself - apparently that was allowed), but decided guaranteeing Ultama staying alive was more important. I think that was probably still the right call given how much you guys were vacillating on the choice.

ST
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#70 User is offline   Macros 

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Posted 08 January 2017 - 04:40 AM

Just read through.
Man.
Once again I made so many bad calls in this game, but I do feel that once I got over my drinky travels I sort of caught a better hold of it.

Sierg, superb performance mom hands down, one of the best town performances I have seen here in years.
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#71 User is offline   Kruppe of Darujhistan 

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Posted 08 January 2017 - 04:52 AM

View PostHanas, on 07 January 2017 - 11:50 PM, said:

Might aswell get here me bothering Venge too

Spoiler


It was funny when Venge yelled at you in the Killer convo, apparently mistaking you for me! :p
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#72 User is offline   Siergiej 

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Posted 08 January 2017 - 10:26 AM

View PostMacros, on 08 January 2017 - 04:40 AM, said:

Just read through.
Man.
Once again I made so many bad calls in this game, but I do feel that once I got over my drinky travels I sort of caught a better hold of it.

Sierg, superb performance mom hands down, one of the best town performances I have seen here in years.

Thank you! I think the four of us that were left to make of the final call - you, ST, Ando, and me - handled it pretty well.

And we still lucked out big time with Kruppe's slip.

The PMs are super fun to read. I love that people pre-emptively want to murder Khell even if he's not playing Posted Image
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#73 User is offline   Macros 

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Posted 08 January 2017 - 10:55 AM

For the record I was far more in favour of hanging Serc than going to night.
Post Fanderay findreveal obviously. :D
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#74 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 08 January 2017 - 11:47 AM

Lover's convo (Gamelon & Bek Okhan):

Gamelon, on 26 December 2016 - 01:58 AM, said:

BO, give me a holler when you are here

Bek Okhan, on 26 December 2016 - 02:34 AM, said:

Was out, now here.

Ment here, so I'm on EST times, and I got next two days off. The downside is, I can't play on my phone (well, yet... I'm actually going phone shopping tomorrow, so hopefully that'll resolve it)

Gamelon, on 26 December 2016 - 03:36 AM, said:

Andorion here.

You know my times.

I am going to be leaving soon, will be online from appx 4PM onwards about 7 hours from now.

But I highly doubt I will be around much tomorrow.

Gamelon, on 26 December 2016 - 03:45 AM, said:

Ok, I don't know the anime, but I think we have 1 lone killer, 1 Finder, 1 Guard/healer and us. And possibly a symp

Bek Okhan, on 26 December 2016 - 04:35 AM, said:

So you'll be around from 5 am onwards. It's the holidays, so I don't get up early.

Anyhow, at this point, no need for us to coordinate much. best we can do is try to survive for a while without drawing attention, then reveal to narrow down the suspect pool.

It's still a day off for most Westerners tomorrow, so I doubt we'll see a whole lot of activity anyhow.

Gamelon, on 26 December 2016 - 12:15 PM, said:

Right, so we have a 12 hour difference?

I will keep an eye on things. But I won't be around at all tomorrow I think. I will try to chime in occasionally

Gamelon, on 28 December 2016 - 03:44 PM, said:

I can't find tatts. Unless he is Fanderay? If Tatts is lying low I think that means he is scum

I think Tulas is Nom and being his illogical risk taking day 1 self.

Gamelon, on 28 December 2016 - 06:24 PM, said:

Could Tulas be a very audacious symp

Bek Okhan, on 29 December 2016 - 01:12 AM, said:

The "what can we do differently" post is vintage Tatts.

Pallid is Mess, I think. And I doubt he's scum

Gamelon, on 29 December 2016 - 01:52 AM, said:

90% of the time when people accuse me of fading into the background its because I went to sleep.

Yeah now I do think Tatts is Fand. and I still think Tulas is Nom

Gamelon, on 29 December 2016 - 03:32 AM, said:

PS?

BO was Ment or Bliss?

Path-Shaper, on 29 December 2016 - 03:34 AM, said:

reread the read :p

Gamelon, on 29 December 2016 - 03:49 AM, said:

Got it :D

Gamelon, on 30 December 2016 - 04:44 PM, said:

Tatts sounds like my mother sometimes

Gamelon, on 04 January 2017 - 09:05 AM, said:

Who is Fand and why is he imitating Tatts style of play?

PS Pallid was Tatts, right?

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#75 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 08 January 2017 - 11:55 AM

ST here - made the mistake of deleting my conversation thread before it got posted to SH, which means it can't be quoted. But it's all one long running monologue, so I'll just paste it all in:

Quote

Yay, first game back and I get a juicy healer role!

Unfortunately, my natural instincts are to be loud and draw attention to myself as an inno - exactly not how you should play healer. Will need to curb my instigationist tendencies.

I guess we'll see how it goes :)

ST

----------

(You'll find I'm quite chatty to SH - hope it's an enjoyable ride!)

ST

----------

Looks like pretty much everyone is here (except Serc). Nice to have a full complement.

Key for a healer is to try and get into the killer's head. When I'm scum I like to kill off the chatty people and use the uncertainty around low posters to my advantage, but strategies vary.

My rule of thumb is that the killer is usually in the top third of posters after Day 1, so that's where I'll start looking. It's hard to pull off a Night 1 heal, but if I can start mucking things up from Night 2 onwards I'll be pleased.

Now, do I want to keep a low profile, or do I want to act sympy and avoid drawing the NK that way? The latter us certainly more fun, but might add a bit of risk. Maybe I need to go back and see what recent lynch patterns have been like.

ST

----------

Just went and had a look back over the previous game to see what the current fashion is (and have a go at guessing the scum). After Day 1 my top two were Okaros and Lock, and as it turned out I was right! Gives me some confidence for this game.

One thing though - I was surprised how much Meta there was. In the olden days that always used ti be strictly verboten - has that changed?

ST

----------

Initial thoughts:

- Mockra smells RI to me. Doing what I'd be doing if I was RI, that's for sure.
- Gamelon seems suspicious to me. His 'reaction post' was pure summary-but-no-content. I'm always on the lookout for that sort of thing early.
- Didn't like Alkend's either - dropped a vote on it to see if it provokes any reaction.
- Tulas Shorn is absurdly fatalistic. Possibly playing a dangerous game to try to head off a lynch train? Maybe just trying to virtue-signal RI. Either way, all feels like like WIFOM so I'm going to leave it alone for now.
- Serc has gone hard with the meta...not a fan! Keep your alt-guesses to yourself, thank you very much. (I think he's probably wrong about Macros being Pallid, FWIW).
- BO picked one of the players in the 'random voting trifecta' who already had a vote on them. Possibly scum trying to get in on a train early?
- Pallid is vote-hopping, which I like to see on Day 1 - usually scum are a bit more cautious with their voting habits (or at least, they used to be). Probably less likely right now.

That leaves Hanas, Aparal Forge, Ultama and Omtose who I haven't got a read on yet. Current suspicion pyramid (most suspicious at the top):

Alkend, Gamelon
Bek Okhan
Serc, Tulas Shorn
Hanas, Aparal Forge, Ultama, Omtose
Pallid, Mockra

ST

---------

Can I put in a provisional:

Protect Mockra

Seems the most likely town right now. Plus I have a feeling the scum might try and paint me as suspicious if he gets killed off.

ST

---------

OK, that last post by Ultama makes me think he could be scum. 'Hey guys, look at this!', no vote, not much in the way of explanation, but plenty of quotes so it looks like he's being active and making a nice long case.

Will let it stew for a bit to see if there's any more conversation on the matter (although there doesn't seem to be much conversation in this game - good job we've got 48 hour days!)

Worried I'm being too talkative and making myself a target, but frankly if townies can't make 10 posts in what has basically been a 60 hour Day 1 then they don't really deserve my protection.

ST

----------

Argh. I can't stop myself from talking on thread. This is SO not how to play the healer role :D. Just going to have to hope that for some strange reason the scum find me useful and decide to keep me alive...and if they do that, it's probably because I'm barking up the wrong tree. (Well either that, or they play scum very differently from me, which is always a possibility).

Normally I feel like vomiting opinions out into the thread is a bad idea, even as RI. You let them out in a slow, controlled drip, giving other players plenty of time to digest them and react in ways you can use. You make sure that each opinion is separate and easily digestible, so people bother to properly read what you've written and think about it. After all, you and only you are responsible for the readability of your posts, so you should be doing everything in your power to make sure that people actually read them.

That last post of mine breaks a lot of my own rules for making cases.
- It tries to make two separate arguments in one post (a big no-no, since it pollutes discussion of either idea).
- It presents itself as a bit of a quote wall with small lines of text in between, which makes it easy for people to skim past important points straight to the end of the post.
- It accuses people who have recently been responding to my own speculation. If you do that too often, nobody will respond to your speculation any more, rendering the whole exercise useless.
- It goes into lecture mode at the beginning - people respond badly to that.
- Triple posting is always a bad look.

But I guess I've posted it now so I'll just have to live with it. What I wouldn't do for somebody else to do some heavy lifting!

ST

------------

OK, maybe Pallid is actually Macros. These last few posts have been very him.

Not loving the TS lynch choice - it's way too predictable. Unpicking why we ended up going that way might be interesting though!

ST

------------

Right, we definitely shouldn't be lynching Tulas. That self-vote makes it clear he's an inno, so we should keep him in. But I can't do the convincing by myself - I've already expressed my dislike on the lynch choice. Is anyone else going to set this up? We're running out of time for alternative lynch trains.

ST

------------

I don't like the way AF parachuted in to try and move the lynch back to TS. Feels like a symp trying to prevent his master from getting attention - could be he's covering for Gamelon? Possibly too good to be true - even though he seems the most likely to be scum in the game from what I can see, the odds are still pretty low (just greater than 1/11).

Whoever is playing Tulas Shorn needs to shape up. Unless they're actually scum (which I deem fairly unlikely at this point), they've done an absolutely terrible job so far. The amount of information you get from a CF is no substitute for a reasoned debate with lots of interactions between the players. If you say you're trying to leave lynch train information on thread, you dramatically reduce its effectiveness by making the scum actively think about their vote timings. Go out with your guns blazing and make people react to you, and you'll be a hell of a lot more helpful than whatever this pitiful attempt at self-sacrifice is supposed to be.

ST

------------

Just re-reading through my SH thoughts (can you tell I'm bored with too much time on my hands? :D), and realised that I've managed to push heat on my prime suspect very effectively. I like that Gamelon has slunk off - he clearly feels that more talking will make it worse for himself. Now all I have to do is avoid the two impending icebergs on the horizon:

[a] Scum decide I'm an annoyance and kill me off;
[b] Scum don't kill me off, everyone decides I'm a symp and lynches me for trying to direct the thread too much.

Not much I can do about [a], but [b] does seem like something I'm going to have to plan ahead for. I guess we'll see what happens on Day 2, but I'll probably have less time to run around directing the thread so that'll probably help.

In the meantime, need to have another think about who to protect tonight. I'm assuming I can't heal myself? :p

ST

Quote

If you want you can heal yourself.

Healer protect thyself is a rule in the circle of friend i play in.

Quote

Hmm, OK. It's possible that I might be overestimating my own importance here. I'll have a think about it.

------------

Right, I think I'm going to keep my heal on Mockra. I feel like there are good odds he gets targeted tonight, on the basis that they'll probably pick someone middle of the pack who doesn't seem like a symp. He's got about the right amount of posts and I think he sticks out as a probable RI.

As for who the killers are, I notice that Gamelon is squarely at the bottom of the top third of posters - always a good spot for scum to hide :D.

ST

------------

Not sure what to think of Ultama's vote for AF. He's removing from someone with 2 votes to try to start a train on someone with no votes with less than an hour left in the day. It's not very helpful.

So could he be scum trying to draw heat away from his partner/master? If so, he'd have to be trying to direct heat away from TS/Pallid/Gamelon. It's probably not TS, since he already had his vote on him. But if it was Pallid, wouldn't he vote for Gamelon? And if it was Gamelon, wouldn't he vote for Pallid? Unless they're in it together? But that seems too good to be true.

ST

-----------

I hate it when lynches are decided by who happens to be on the thread at the time...is it too much to ask for all players to be checking the thread 100% of the time so they can cast their votes? :p (But seriously though, it feels like there's a lot of power in dropping your vote and then stepping back - makes it much harder for the people there at the end of the day to change the course you've set).

As it stands, I just hope the switches of Hanas and Ultama made it through in time. Not having a Day 1 lynch will really slow down town's game here.

ST

-----------

Interesting NK - I guess that means that the scum are hunting for roles...and I'm not in the place they would normally expect to find them, which is nice :D.

The CF suggests that Bek Okhan might be part of a lover pair - had a quick look in his early posts for codes but I'm not good enough at finding them to see if there's anything. (If there is one, it's probably either here or here). But it might be worth having a think about who else would fit the pattern of being a lover partner with BO in case it helps me PI anyone.

What's going on with Omtose? It looks as though his modkill timer should have popped by now, right? Shame to lose a player, but if they aren't showing up then they're dragging us down. Him being gone reduces our requirements for a lynch, which isn't a bad thing.

ST

-----------

I'm nervous that I can't spot Macros - it tends to mean that he's smooth playing scum. Let's have a think over what we know so far:

Aparal Forge - Talkative. His one attempt at a case was a bit tenuous. Could be in a scum pairing with/symp for Gamelon.
Hanas - Smooth. Seemed to need a bit of prodding to actually put a vote down last night. He voted for Gamelon over Pallid/TS. Is that inno playing the odds, or scum who knows the best choice and picks it to blend in? I worry that he's in my blind spot because he seems to be playing the same way as me.
Gamelon - Nervous about him. My case was weak though, not sure it's going to stick. Might be worth shelving it until later, getting him involved in some stuff and seeing what else drops out. I don't like the way he answers pressure, seems too earnest.
Mockra - I thought the way he put some pressure on me on Day 1 was quite innocent. Interesting to see Hanas with the case on him though. I'm tempted to go along with it to see what falls out.
Ultama - Shifty. Lots of vote hopping towards the end of the day. Possible symp for Gamelon. Also thought he was being a bit 'go with the flow' earlier.
Tulas Shorn - What was all that fatalistic BS about? Most likely is RI being stupid, but back of my mind is a paired scum setup with him and someone else, where he gets talked off the ledge to make him appear innocent. It's a pretty risky gambit though. It would have to be one of Hanas and Gamelon as the other partner.
Alkend - Low posting but seems to be involved in all the interesting stuff. Caused the shift away from Gamelon by voting for Pallid. When I put a vote on him earlier I got basically no response...but it wasn't on there for that long. BO, Mockra, Gamelon and Ultama would have time to comment on it. Mockra's summary of options post could have been a way of burying it, so possible Mockra symping for Alkend?
Serc - Not done much. Need to do a reread and see if anything jumps out.
Omtose - About to be modkilled for inactivity. Can ignore for now.

So I'd probably arrange my suspicion tree like this:

Gamelon
Ultama, Aparal Forge, Alkend
Mockra, Hanas, Serc
Tulas Shorn

(Omtose doesn't make it onto the tree)

Off for a reread of Serc.

ST

---------------

Protect Alkend

He's in the right demographic to draw an NK from a killer looking for roles.

---------------

I'm really torn. On the one hand, I do like my hypothesis that Gamelon is the killer. He has been shifty, he has given excuses that I tend to associate with scum. On the other hand, I know that my guesses are at best only slightly better than random, an as such I need to bear in mind the Monty Hall Problem.

MHP says that I had a 1/11 (or possibly 2/11, depending on setup, but I think a killer + promotable symp combo is more likely here) chance of identifying Scum on Day 1, and therefore a 10/11 chance of picking on an inno. Now it's day 3 and a bunch of players have been eliminated, the chances of the scum being amongst those other players are still 10/11, but split between 6 players. Ergo, I bump up my chances from 1/11 to 5/33 (10/11 * 1/6) if I switch my guess to one of the other players. That's almost double!

So I should probably switch to someone else, at least for today. I can always go back to Gamelon on Day 4 if necessary.

ST

--------------

That point about time of going to sleep was lame and I shouldn't have made it. If Gamelon really is from somewhere other than US/Europe/Australia, my apologies. I've been away a while and it used to be that the only players we had were from those places.

The dilemma I have here is that I find the case on Gamelon much more convincing than the one on Mockra. I think I'm predisposed to find Mockra town-ish because he started attacking me on Day 1, as counter-intuitive as that sounds. I get the points about him hedging on the hammer, but they don't really convince me just yet. Will have to mull it over some more.

And I need to come to a position on Ultama as well. Can't really get a read on him - he pushed AF hard the first two days and then pivoted to Mockra on Day 3. Maybe I should just try asking him if he feels any remorse about getting AF lynched.


In other news, I think I'm going to put in a provisional to:

Protect Omtose

Consider the axiom: RIs don't get replacements as late as Day 3, roles and scum do. (Not saying this is necessarily true, but it is a common sentiment). If scum believe in this axiom, then there are two possibilities: (1) Omtose is scum [in which case, who has been NKing everyone while he has been playing hooky?] or (2) he's not scum, in which case the killer will be curious and probably try out an NK.

I feel like the chances of (1) are fairly low at this point as I feel it's more likely that we have a killer-symp combo as opposed to a killer pair (in which case the other killer could be doing the NKs). As such, protecting Omtose seems like a reasonable attempt to head off an NK.

ST

--------------

Interesting to see the on-thread reveal! I wasn't really expecting a Finder in the game (as generally a Healer/Finder combo is pretty OP), but I guess I'll have to adjust my provisional:

Protect Ultama

The flip side to this is that I'm assuming that for game balance purposes there must be paired killers plus a symp, so likely to be a bit more of this game to go!

------------

ARGH! Changed away from Omtose at the last minute :p. Maybe the killer didn't have time to change their NK choice? It seems weird not to have picked Ultama. That could suggest that Hanas is the scum, since they were the only one that weren't around for the end of the day.

Protect Ultama

On that hypothesis.


Niggling at the back of my mind is a really ballsy manoeuvre for scum...dunno if they'd have played it this way, but it could be a game winner:

Ultama is in a scum pair with Mockra. They agree that Ultama will fake-reveal finder while selling out Mockra, PIing themselves in the process. Nobody is going to lynch Ultama now, which basically gives them a free pass until someone stops to wonder why they haven't been NKed yet. For now I'm going to keep it under wraps as a possibility, but if Ultama isn't the NK target tonight I'll start to wonder.

------------

Damn, I've really played today terribly. I mean, looking back over what I've posted I would find it hard to trust myself, let alone everyone else. Really wish I'd had a bit more time to do a proper reading of the thread, then I would have done a better job of it than all that garbled nonsense I've been putting out there.

ST

------------

Gah, I really wish that Ultama hadn't brought up the idea of a healer in the game as a reason for going to Night (or at least, not in the same post as revealing I'm town, anyway). It's not much of a stretch for scum to connect the dots between Ultama doing a find on me and Ultama being sure there is a healer to keep him safe.

Hoping to distance myself from the idea with my on thread post, even though I do think going to night would be good for town. But I need some enthusiastic assent from the other players to make it happen, because being for it would jump out a bit too much.

Alkend being against it surprises me a lot though - especially since he was talking about the existence of a healer earlier, you would have thought he'd be for it. Makes me think he could well be the scum (because if scum think there's a healer, they wouldn't want to go to night).

------------

A hypothesis has arrived at my brain:

- There is a town vig in play, and they used it on Omtose last night.
- The killer targeted Ultama and failed.
- The CF makes it look like the scum targeted Omtose.

This would fit quite neatly with Gamelon's play here if Gamelon was the vig - he asked on thread "Why didn't Ultama die from the NK?" as if he was sure that Omtose's death wasn't an NK. Also explains why he's so sure there is a healer in the game.

(To be fair though, it would also work well if Gamelon was scum since he would know that the NK failed).

Will have to think about this, and whether I should share it with the thread.

ST

---------------

Protect Ultama

I was toying with putting it on myself, but it's more important to guarantee we get another find result. I figure Ultama can do that and I'll take the NK, then trust the rest of them to figure it out.

ST

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#76 User is offline   Kruppe of Darujhistan 

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Posted 08 January 2017 - 04:03 PM

ST, your high activity worked in your favor. Knowing we were 3 scum almost guaranteed the presence of a Healer, but you were at first ruled out. After the reveal, we had to make a quick switch off of Ultama. Thinking the Omtose repacement meant something, he was the choice. But then we switched to you and again back to Omtose. I guess my "triple guessing myself" was less harmful to us than my "quadruple guessing myself" proved to be! :p

After you were announced as Ultama's Night 1 find and your post that studiously avoided any mention of the possibility of a Healer I became convinced that you were just that. Probably too late, even without my inexcusable blunder.

Summary: You are a formidable foe and it was a pleasure doing business with you! :D
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#77 User is offline   Andorion 

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Posted 08 January 2017 - 04:04 PM

That was an interesting game. First one I have ever played where there were three killers
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#78 User is offline   Sir Thursday 

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Posted 08 January 2017 - 05:51 PM

View PostKruppe of Darujhistan, on 08 January 2017 - 04:03 PM, said:

ST, your high activity worked in your favor. Knowing we were 3 scum almost guaranteed the presence of a Healer, but you were at first ruled out. After the reveal, we had to make a quick switch off of Ultama. Thinking the Omtose repacement meant something, he was the choice. But then we switched to you and again back to Omtose. I guess my "triple guessing myself" was less harmful to us than my "quadruple guessing myself" proved to be! :)

After you were announced as Ultama's Night 1 find and your post that studiously avoided any mention of the possibility of a Healer I became convinced that you were just that. Probably too late, even without my inexcusable blunder.

Summary: You are a formidable foe and it was a pleasure doing business with you! :D


It's interesting that it was that that swung your suspicion on me. I actually deliberately left out that half of the speculation because I thought it would be more believable for an RI not to have considered the possibility of a healer. Guess I was way off on that. :D

I had a really good time playing this game. Fun setup, good play by scum and town alike. Unfortunately I don't have the time to play very much any more or I'd be back for more. As it is I have to pick my spots, but I'll keep an eye out for future opportunities when I'm less busy :p.

ST
Don't look now, but I think there's something weird attached to the bottom of my posts.
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