[Anomandaris]

 Denul, on 08 February 2016 - 08:08 PM, said:

I'm a Daddy!!!

Won't be on much but to celebrate I'd like you all to follow me in lynching Olar Ethil. Non entity for the entirety of the game and I'm not sure but I don't think he's even voted.

vote Olar Ethil

Congrats man! Very happy for you!


Sorry for my delayed entry into day 3, I'll be checking in and out for the next couple of hours while I do other stuff.

Skimming over thread quickly, I would agree that Hanas probably just fucked up rather than attempting some wild play - it makes little sense so early into the game and with no pressure on them, or on KF, who only came up, let's remember, because Hanas instigated a vote on them.

[Korlat]

I'm back, should be around for a while. I'm gonna add my voice to the chorus suggesting that Hanas (probably) just tried to make a bold move but didn't execute it well and fucked up. I can't remember who mentioned the difficulty of finding a palatable lynch target for the majority with only 2 factions, but I agree with that and would agree with whoever suggested Gait as a possible target in place of OE. OE got replaced (I think) and his replacement may not have checked the thread after the weekend break. If OE's near non-existence continues for a while, I'm up for that lynch, but Gait has not been replaced AFAIK and has no excuse for coasting.

[Korlat]

Oh and also congrats Denul!

[Shadow]

 Denesmet, on 08 February 2016 - 10:52 PM, said:

So here's what I found...

 Shadow, on 04 February 2016 - 01:49 AM, said:

 Hanas, on 03 February 2016 - 11:39 PM, said:

Vote Kadagar Fant
Because I've got a suspicion and I want to see where it goes.

tempting to join to see where hanas experiment will go.

That being said in all the drama that happened in the previous day Omtose didn't really make any points just drove by lynching. Strikes me as the kind of behavior where you're trying to fly under the radar.

Im hoping to be on for the next little while. If not its good night for now.

Shadow is tempted to vote KF just to see what Hanas was on about... He ends up being the 4th vote on Hanas. Was he just resigned to Hanas getting lynched and trying to distance, or was the above post an attempt to direct us somewhere other than Hanas? The thing that strikes me the most about the above, which was his 1st post, and the 5th post overall of Day 2 is that on Day 3, the 2nd post Shadow makes is:


Resigned over what? the fact that someone needed to die to clear up the WIFOM BS he started?Guilty as charged. The rest is nothing but conjecture. You're making quite a few assumptions based off m&P reasoning.

 Shadow, on 08 February 2016 - 08:41 PM, said:

been kinda busy last few days so ill have a proper re-read through EOD, im quite sure in my last d2 post i made some notes for myself to follow up on.

Also if its true OE's been coasting by hes a good place to start in terms of pressure.

Again, very early in the day trying to point us at someone... I am always suspicious of anyone trying to steer the thread, though I'd be more suspicious if he were trying to steer today's lynch during Day 2, which I've seen no evidence of...

Thing is, Shadow also did a bunch of posting in support of a Hanas lynch because of all the WIFOM it created... He even looked at other people, and still came back to Hanas, so yeah, not too sure bout this one...

Please, if i wanted to steer the thread i'd put in a heck of a lot more effort and information then a simple sentence. I've yet to comb through previous posts.(trying to wrap things up for a client b4 my new job starts) If you want to look at someone who's trying to drive the thread, denuls the one who mentioned it first iirc. Why not start with him?

 Telas, on 04 February 2016 - 06:24 PM, said:

Is it possible this is an attempt to distract from a leader that was getting heat? Otherwise, I just don't understand it.

Though Telas did vote for Hanas, this was the first thing that stuck out to me as trying to rationalize why Hanas revealed, aka trying to find a reason not to vote for him... Still, Telas was second on the lynch train, so not sure if I'd be willing to agree that he was defending Hanas.


All in all, not a whole lot to play with...

[Shadow]

also congrats denul.

Now onto my re-read of d2 shenanigans

[Shadow]

So from what i can see of day 2. Hanas was leading the entire discussion. The only player who was discussed for the first few pages was AF, who was mentioned by hanas as him being "suspicious" of him.

Could be a way of signaling AF for some reason. He did mention he was a scout. At the same time there's this post, so based off that it could just be plain old lynch train analysis. Hanas did deny using find on KF

 Denul, on 04 February 2016 - 04:47 PM, said:

Anomandaris was the first person to vote for Fanderay. So the "pile on" as you call it Hanas happened from there. This is how the votes went down.

If anything, a "pile-on" would be Fanderay, Emurlahn and Hanas after the Eloth vote of Anomandaris.

Eloth > Anomandaris
Fanderay > Anomandaris
Emurlahn > Anomandaris
Hanas > Anomandaris

Merrid halts progress

Anomandaris > Fanderay
Kadagar Fant > Fanderay

The next person to vote after Kadagar is Merrid, who does not vote for Fanderay.

Merrid > Anomandaris

Grasp > Fanderay

Denul > Fanderay

Korlat > Hanas

Shadow > Fanderay

Emurlahn remove

Denesmet > Fanderay

Omtose > Fanderay

Hanas > remove vote

Hanas > Fanderay

Korlat > remove vote

Korlat > Fanderay

Korlat > remove vote

Korlat > Fanderay

Eloth > Korlat

Eloth > Remove vote

Eloth > Fanderay

Aparal Forge > Fanderay


I think what Hanas is suggesting that Kadagar could be a leader and that his minions followed, but that would just lead a trail right back to the leader. You could look at the Fanderay lynch as a swing away from Ano, and therefore Ano could be a leader, with Hanas' logic.

So i'm voting for Hanas, purely because of his "night action" and because he seems to have more information than the rest of us.

 Anomandaris, on 04 February 2016 - 07:01 PM, said:

 Korlat, on 04 February 2016 - 06:59 PM, said:

 Ultama, on 04 February 2016 - 06:47 PM, said:

 Path-Shaper, on 03 February 2016 - 11:34 PM, said:

Suibara Takaeie led his raiding group of Uesugi closer to the river, keeping them within the trees and out of sight of the Takeda column. They would soon push forward in an attempt to take some of the straggling Takeda column by surprise.

Shouts of alarm suddenly sounded from his men as a group of Takeda troops, led by Kosaka Masanobu, burst from cover and engaged his men. Surprise lost, Takaeie gave the order to retreat, which his men gladly executed.

 Hanas, on 04 February 2016 - 05:37 PM, said:

In summary: I'm a scout. My night action allows me to see whether someone is on the other faction to mine; part of the reason why I'm pretty sure there isn't a third faction is because it expressly implies it only works on the other team. And no, I didn't actually use it on Kadagar; I was hoping voting for him would help me figure out which way the wind was going to blow and try and identify some people.
It's not been hugely successful, though.
Remove vote

I will give you this. That does seem to correspond to the night scene. But why you would mention something with out having any info makes no sense at all. You went fishing at night and got blocked then tried to go fishing during the day. Just seems like a lose lose scenario. You don't seem like your stupid so I have to assume that there is some kind of alter motive to doing a reveal. But the only one that I can see is that you are bored with the game and want to be lynched. Personally I dislike finders in faction games.

I thought Hanas said he cleared someone else with his find, not that he got blocked by someone else. Unless you blocked him?

Ooh, interesting catch!

Now this is something, an unintentional slip perhaps?

 Denesmet, on 04 February 2016 - 06:03 PM, said:

 Eloth, on 04 February 2016 - 03:40 PM, said:

This is a good post all round. I agree with your feelings for Hanas' vote (votes that explicitly say they're testing a suspicion tend not to be such good tests as votes with more backing them up).

I think you've hit on a good point though, about looking at reactions to the vote. However, different people stuck out to me. Denul is certainly the most noticeable one, with the vote. Shadow and Emur didn't really stick out at me, while Omtose/Grasp did a bit more. While Emur feels there's little reason for Hanas to put out misinformation on purpose, Omtose says that he "intentionally gave wrong info about the scenes". Grasp accuses him of "claiming a Night action to gain credibility".

What's interesting is that these are some of the same people who hopped onto Fanderay most easily (with drive by/"I agree, voted" type votes).

Alright... let's have a look at the Omtose and Grasp comments (at least, the ones that aren't simply "I'm reading up" posts)...

 Omtose, on 04 February 2016 - 12:00 PM, said:

Back at last.

I didn't drive by vote, I though KF had the right idea about Fanderay. I didn't give a reason as that would just be parroting KF's post

Hanas is who interests me. He intentionally gave wrong info about the scenes, and now wants us to follow him, with no valid or verifiable reason

So I agree, this, especially that last sentence, seems to be working towards discrediting Hanas. I mean, it's flimsy, but often people jump on flimsy cases so early in the game, so Omtose may very well be trying to defend KF by pushing the idea that Hanas may have been lying on purpose...

And then...

 Grasp, on 04 February 2016 - 01:29 PM, said:

 Hanas, on 04 February 2016 - 01:33 AM, said:

The vote train in which everyone piled on Fandy after Kadagar, and also my night action cleared someone else I had a feeling about.
So I'm going to explore what happens when I vote Kadagar.

Claiming a night action already to gain credibility. I dont like this combined with the fact that he is trying to get the thread to just follow him with no information.

He says almost the exact same thing as Omtose...

So, I see where you're coming from. When I was first reading through, I just took it as the same sentiment many of the rest of us have expressed, mainly that we wouldn't vote for KF without further clarification from Hanas... But these two are pushing it a bit further - immediately trying to discredit him, trying to make him look suspicious and shady - it's something I might do if I wanted to push people away from voting KF without seeming to be outright defending KF.

So this catch by denesmet interests me, both of grasp and omtose's votes were early on in the day before the vote trains on hanas really started. And i find myself agreeing with Denes that it appears they might have been trying to push more without pushing.


This also stuck out

 Denesmet, on 04 February 2016 - 07:23 PM, said:

 Ultama, on 04 February 2016 - 07:19 PM, said:

He said that he was a scout and did a night action. He didn't say if it was successful or not. I used some reading skills and looked at the night scene where one scouting party was blocked from anything by a surprise ambush from the other side. Which IF you believe that he had a night action then according to the scene it was blocked.

But you know I have minimal reading comprehension skills so that could be totally off.

That's actually a good point - I was working on the belief that he had done a night action that failed, but upon closer reading, I see that Ultama is right, he never said whether or not he used his NA, only that he had one.

When in fact

 Hanas, on 04 February 2016 - 01:33 AM, said:

 Korlat, on 04 February 2016 - 01:28 AM, said:

 Kadagar Fant, on 04 February 2016 - 12:35 AM, said:

 Hanas, on 03 February 2016 - 11:39 PM, said:

Vote Kadagar Fant
Because I've got a suspicion and I want to see where it goes.

Mhmm. You're not likely to get very far if you don't give reasons for why you're voting me.

Yeah, what exactly are your reasons for your suspicion?

The vote train in which everyone piled on Fandy after Kadagar, and also my night action cleared someone else I had a feeling about.
So I'm going to explore what happens when I vote Kadagar.

 Path-Shaper, on 05 February 2016 - 05:59 AM, said:

Masatsugu has learned the hard way that when you don't know the lay of the land when your enemy does, it can be fatal. His group of scouts have ridden into a small ravine, thinking it would reveal a pathway to within the enemies' lines. Thinking they could ride out the other end, they instead find themselves trapped in a cul de sac. As they wheel about they find a group of Uesugi soldiers have followed them, and they are trapped. Masatsugu shouts to his men to charge, knowing it will be their last act of this lifetime.

Hanas has been lynched. He was Tsuchiya Masatsugu (Lisheo) of the Takeda.



Suibara Takaie slammed his fist on the pommel of his saddle. For the second time in a row, his fast raid attack had been turned aside by the dogged Masanobu Kosaka, who had managed to keep pace and follow with Suibara's group. With the battle about to be joined in truth now, Suibara's opportunity to create havoc has ended and he gives orders to his men to wheel about and take up forward scouting duties. Their days as raiders have been thwarted...for now.


Here I will pause the game to prepare for the battle phase, which will take some time, so I will declare this the beginning of the weekend break as well.

Please be advised that I will likely start the game on Monday afternoon in Japan, so it will still be early Monday morning for some of you.

According to google Suibara Takaie was an Uesugi retainer, wheras Mansanobu is a takeda General. So Likely both have some sort of raid or counter raid move they can use and twice the takeda got the block in. Also the scene seems to confirm that hanas was right about being a scout as he was leading a scouting party. Also ultama bring in that part about blocking. Curious.

[Eloth]

 Shadow, on 09 February 2016 - 01:23 AM, said:

Now this is something, an unintentional slip perhaps?

Possibly, but it does seem reasonably plausible that he'd just read that into the scene. I'm not totally sure what to make of the scene discussion in general. I did find it a bit odd that Ultama seemed to strictly focus on one scene and ignore the one that more exlpicitly mentioned a scout. I'm also not sure where this leads however, since it's not M&P where finding slips is often the name of the game. If this is a slip, where does it leave thing anyway? I feel like a lot of the things being proposed are kind of standard M&P ideas that don't necessarily translate into a faction game.

 Shadow, on 09 February 2016 - 01:23 AM, said:

So this catch by denesmet interests me, both of grasp and omtose's votes were early on in the day before the vote trains on hanas really started. And i find myself agreeing with Denes that it appears they might have been trying to push more without pushing.

Yeah, I still feel much the same as I did about this. In fact, since today doesn't seem to be offering much, I'm tempted to go back to this idea which kind of got lost in the Hanas clusterfuck.

Regarding the Ultama/Den thing, I think that's most likely just misreading. I can't see much tactical reason for it anyhow.

[Gait]

Traveling Cross state today and back tomorrow, posting from hotel now before crashing

Last minute deal here, try again lat e r

[Telas]

 Gait, on 09 February 2016 - 03:37 AM, said:

Traveling Cross state today and back tomorrow, posting from hotel now before crashing

Last minute deal here, try again lat e r

I hope you don't think that counts as participation.

[Denul]

Thanks for the messages guys.

Regardless of what faction you're in, you'd want a lynch today.

The Uesugi will want to further the gap whereas the Takeda will want to close it.

I like a few of the observations by Eloth, Shadow, Anomandaris and Korlat so far.

That post by Gait though. Uh uh

[Denul]

remove vote

Vote gait

That smacks as a coaster fo sho

[Eloth]

 Denul, on 09 February 2016 - 04:25 AM, said:

Regardless of what faction you're in, you'd want a lynch today.

The Uesugi will want to further the gap whereas the Takeda will want to close it.

Standard mafia wisdom suggests this is true. I'm less sure it's the case here.

 Denul, on 09 February 2016 - 04:25 AM, said:

I like a few of the observations by Eloth, Shadow, Anomandaris and Korlat so far.

A little more specifity would be nice.

 Denul, on 09 February 2016 - 04:25 AM, said:

That post by Gait though. Uh uh

The one by OE annoys me too, in that he says he'll be around in a few hours and hasn't materialised at all like 5 and a half hours later. At the same time, RL stuff is RL stuff, and I work off the assumption that it's legit and non-strategic.

You also seem to have your sights pretty set on the low posters today. Which is another standard M&P thing, but here is making me a bit wary. With little info from the low posters, how would you know they aren't your faction? It seems atbitrary, and since there's no way to really judge the faction of the low posters it also commits nothing on the part of the person voting them. It seems like another easy low information vote. Not sure I like that.

[Omtose]

Just managed to get on.

Reading up

[Denul]

 Eloth, on 09 February 2016 - 04:40 AM, said:

 Denul, on 09 February 2016 - 04:25 AM, said:

Regardless of what faction you're in, you'd want a lynch today.

The Uesugi will want to further the gap whereas the Takeda will want to close it.

Standard mafia wisdom suggests this is true. I'm less sure it's the case here.

 Denul, on 09 February 2016 - 04:25 AM, said:

I like a few of the observations by Eloth, Shadow, Anomandaris and Korlat so far.

A little more specifity would be nice.

 Denul, on 09 February 2016 - 04:25 AM, said:

That post by Gait though. Uh uh

The one by OE annoys me too, in that he says he'll be around in a few hours and hasn't materialised at all like 5 and a half hours later. At the same time, RL stuff is RL stuff, and I work off the assumption that it's legit and non-strategic.

You also seem to have your sights pretty set on the low posters today. Which is another standard M&P thing, but here is making me a bit wary. With little info from the low posters, how would you know they aren't your faction? It seems atbitrary, and since there's no way to really judge the faction of the low posters it also commits nothing on the part of the person voting them. It seems like another easy low information vote. Not sure I like that.

I think I have a good grasp of the higher content people. I wouldn't want to get later into endgame with a player who has spouted RL nonsense throughout the game and has ridden our coattails and tolerance throughout.

[Omtose]

What I find interesting so far is that Denesmet and Shadow both seem to think that Grasp and I voted early on Hanas to steer things away from KF, when in fact we were the last votes and I explicitly said I was withholding a vote so that I could wait for additional developments

[Korlat]

I'm about to head to sleep, hasn't been too much going on so far today. I'll drop my vote on Gait for now, maybe a bit more pressure will get him active/make him talk (while getting rid of a coaster is good for everyone, I'd prefer to get as much information out of Gait beforehand.

Vote Gait

[Kadagar Fant]

The difficulty is always going to be how to get the most information out of a lynch without revealing too much information in the process.

At the moment my general feeling is that at the end of the game I'd rather have a player who has consistently been around and can be relied upon to turn up and vote when we're down to the wire. I agree that it's not going to give us much information, but with players as generally cautious as they are at the moment, I think a high information lynch is going to be difficult to manage in any case.

[Merrid]

Here. Congrats Denul!

Reading how the lynch went down, the closer we got to deadline, the likelier the Hanas lynch became, and the more public the (correct) comments that he'd probably be Takeda. That end of the train is a good place to hide if you're a Takeda, too.

To add my speculation to that of everyone else; I guess what happened is that Lish felt like making a play, did his night action on one player he didn't like from day 1, got a Takeda result and with that option closed for him, went after KF as his next best option - not out of rust, but out of a desire to actually have fun and do something.

Finally, on the late train the lynch clause surfaces - arguing Lisheo could have had a lynch proof as justification of his play around the same time of the conclusions of him being a Takeda scout. I don't know about you guys, but an immune scout? I took that rule to refer to Kenshin and Shingen specifically - the game would probably be lost for one side if their leader got himself killed. Unless this was some badly conceived plan by Takeda to try and scare off the lynch train, the argument had no place there imho.

If you were lynch proof, would you do what he did? Even if you were, you'd be lynched the next day, and there's little tactical advantage in getting yourself deadified. With regard to the low-poster hunt: I am kind of cool with it if we must have a lynch, but it will be a low info train.

[Grasp]

Here and reading up.

[Grasp]

Well, congrats Denul. I really have no incliniation on where to go from here. I agree that Gait and OE as complete non entities are easy targets, but dont really think that lynching either one will help further anything on thread. I actually have my daughter at home so will be hopping on and off. So I will look things over again as I can and try to figure out where I would like to go.