[Gorefest]

I agree it is at times a bit difficult to swallow how easily the sparrows get power. The books deal with this a bit better, so it's probably one of those situations again where the translation to screen has either been rushed or difficult to set up.


But early on, Cersei gives the High Sparrow a lot of authority because she thinks he is a great tool to get rid of the Tyrell's influence over Tommen and King's Landing. As part of this she also gives him the right to reform the Faith Militant. Whereas Tywin actively worked to keep the sparrows out of King's Landing, under Cersei they suddenly have free reign and their influence is vast. Even members of the nobility like Lancel Lannister are usurped into their ranks, so their influence reaches from the very lowliest areas right into the heart of the nobility and undoubtedly also incorporates some of the assassins and spies that you mentioned. So nobody knows who to trust anymore. And the High Sparrow isn't that easy to assassinate either, because he has a bodyguard.


The sparrows also have mob rule on their side; openly attacking the High Sparrow will lead to city-wide riots, such as we saw in season 2 as well when queen-in-waiting Sansa even needed to be rescued by the Hound. So in the tv series as well there is precedent for the poor actually being quite powerful when organised and a force that cannot just be shoved aside when inconvenient. Plus most of the really powerful figures in King's Landing, who might dare to oppose the sparrows, have all gone and the ones that are left all have different agendas.

[Gorefest]

Gorefest, on 18 July 2016 - 02:08 PM, said:

difficult to swallow how easily the sparrows

I swear that wasn't intentional.

[Nevyn]

Finish watching the season then complain to us about it. If I am going to get into how realistic the sparrows are or are not I don't want to have to worry about spoilers or what happened when.

[Tapper]

Gorefest, on 18 July 2016 - 02:08 PM, said:

I agree it is at times a bit difficult to swallow how easily the sparrows get power. The books deal with this a bit better, so it's probably one of those situations again where the translation to screen has either been rushed or difficult to set up.


But early on, Cersei gives the High Sparrow a lot of authority because she thinks he is a great tool to get rid of the Tyrell's influence over Tommen and King's Landing. As part of this she also gives him the right to reform the Faith Militant. Whereas Tywin actively worked to keep the sparrows out of King's Landing, under Cersei they suddenly have free reign and their influence is vast. Even members of the nobility like Lancel Lannister are usurped into their ranks, so their influence reaches from the very lowliest areas right into the heart of the nobility and undoubtedly also incorporates some of the assassins and spies that you mentioned. So nobody knows who to trust anymore. And the High Sparrow isn't that easy to assassinate either, because he has a bodyguard.


The sparrows also have mob rule on their side; openly attacking the High Sparrow will lead to city-wide riots, such as we saw in season 2 as well when queen-in-waiting Sansa even needed to be rescued by the Hound. So in the tv series as well there is precedent for the poor actually being quite powerful when organised and a force that cannot just be shoved aside when inconvenient. Plus most of the really powerful figures in King's Landing, who might dare to oppose the sparrows, have all gone and the ones that are left all have different agendas.

On top of that, Kevan and Cersei are in a contest of wills over who rules as Regent. I think neither of them wants to order Lannister bannermen in, only to be disobeyed and publicly losing that struggle. Worse, it will set the people even more against them - something Kevan probably recognizes better than Cersei does.
Mace Tyrell can't find his ass with a map unless his mother reads it for him.
Littlefinger probably still controls the Goldcloaks from behind the scenes, why would he allow them to act when someone else will claim the glory?
Who else is around? Pycelle? A fool. Qyburne? A-political.
The Kings Guard is by now down to four or five non-exceptional knights (plus GregorStein and Jaime).

[Cause]

Yes the books deal with it better, the show ignores several aspects or expects you to be Sherlock Holmes to figure it out.

First the books sets up the growing power of the faith over a much larger timeframe. The rumours that the king may be a result of incest and the growing number of dispossed from the war leads to a growing mob of desperate and angry men that the high sparrow is able to turn to his cause.

Also in the books its clear Cersei thinks she is a master manipulator but is in reality quite incompetent. She allows the faith to arm itself in exchange for something like ten thousand gold pieces. Then she uses the faith to arrest Margery by having one of her guards falsey admit to sleeping with her. The high sparrow with the consent of Cersei arrests her. Legitimizing his power. However he is no fool and sees through Osney Kettleback has him scourged and learns of the queens plot and so arrests her. If he can arrest the queen surely he can arrest the queen mother.

In the books we also now have a much clearer power struggle between her and Kevin Lannister. Kevin wants her gone! Finds her belief that she is the leader of House lannister obnoxious! He could rescue her but prefers not to. In the books Tommen is basically a puppet at age 8 or something. He does whatever he is told.

Lastly the books seem to make it somewhat clearer that a queen marched through the streets naked is unlikely to ever gain much respect again in the male dominated world of Westeros.

Edit- Also with so many wars going on. Kingslanding did not want to anger the faith. Not becuase they cant beat the faith but because if the faith lent its support to a different claimant their could be trouble. Also it was believed they would create a strong buffer against Stanis who they despise for joining the red god.

This post has been edited by Cause: 18 July 2016 - 03:51 PM

[worry]

Apt, on 18 July 2016 - 11:55 AM, said:

Up until season 5 we have been shown a kingdom/city under complete control by the crown/nobility.

Just gotta say, this isn't true at all, even on the show.

[Aptorian]

Finished the 6th season last night.

Those two last episodes were so damn satisfying. Cersei's revenge was glorious. A bit less personal than I was hoping for but as ruthless and final as I was expecting. I had imagined a coup, neutering Tommen, but this was a lot darker.

I do wonder about the transformation Cersei has gone through. When Joffrey died she was besides herself with grief, ready to do anything to get back at Tyrion. When Myrcella died, it happened after she had just done the walk of shame, but still the reaction afterwards was muted. No talk of marching on Dorne or sending assassins or anything. Finally Tommen dies and she doesn't even bat an eye. Considering what Cersie had been through the past year or so, it makes sense, but still I thought it was an oddly cold transformation.

Seems as though the ending of season 6 wrapped up a whole lot of the story threads. So in the last two seasons it's going to be Dorne vs Kingslanding. Nothern Realms vs White Walkers. And Dragon Lady vs Westeros.

[Terez]

Apt, on 20 July 2016 - 08:02 AM, said:

I do wonder about the transformation Cersei has gone through. When Joffrey died she was besides herself with grief, ready to do anything to get back at Tyrion. When Myrcella died, it happened after she had just done the walk of shame, but still the reaction afterwards was muted. No talk of marching on Dorne or sending assassins or anything. Finally Tommen dies and she doesn't even bat an eye. Considering what Cersie had been through the past year or so, it makes sense, but still I thought it was an oddly cold transformation.

It was because she knew it was coming; the deaths of her children were predicted by Maggy the Frog. Joffrey was the first, so it wasn't really a confirmation of the prophecy. Myrcella made it more certain in her mind. Tommen was the least surprising, and on top of that, he betrayed her before he died.

[Aptorian]

Oh, right. I forgot about that hamfisted flashback.

[Gorefest]

Apt, on 20 July 2016 - 08:02 AM, said:

Seems as though the ending of season 6 wrapped up a whole lot of the story threads. So in the last two seasons it's going to be Dorne vs Kingslanding. Nothern Realms vs White Walkers. And Dragon Lady vs Westeros.

Dragonlady + Dorne + Tyrells + part of the Greyjoys versus the Lannisters, actually. And then assumingly a push up north. Not sure what force is actually left to make a convincing stand against Daenerys' landing, it seems that the TV series has pretty much wiped out any recognisable Lannister allies. Quite different from the books.

[Abyss]

Euron and his fleet are still in play.The Lannisters still have plenty of cash and Jaime's army.Inevitably there are a few Lords around with an army and a grudge or misplaced loyalty to draw on.

[Terez]

Abyss, on 20 July 2016 - 09:53 AM, said:

The Lannisters still have plenty of cash...

Not in the show. The mines have dried up and all they have is the crown's debt service.

[Coltaine -]

Cersei also stopped the payback to the iron bank. Or was that just in the books?
So the Iron Bank may support now Dany as well after Stannis is dead.

The upcoming war looks really onesided.

Lannisters:
Westerland Army + Goldcloaks + Money + Freys + Boltons + Tyrells + 1/2 Greyjoys (?)

Daenerys:
Three Dragons + Dothraki + Unsullied + Sandsnakes + Tyrells + 1/2 Greyjoys + Iron Bank (?)

[Nevyn]

- Coltaine -, on 20 July 2016 - 10:59 AM, said:

Cersei also stopped the payback to the iron bank. Or was that just in the books?
So the Iron Bank may support now Dany as well after Stannis is dead.

The upcoming war looks really onesided.

Lannisters:
Westerland Army + Goldcloaks + Money + Freys + Boltons + Tyrells + 1/2 Greyjoys (?)

Daenerys:
Three Dragons + Dothraki + Unsullied + Sandsnakes + Tyrells + 1/2 Greyjoys + Iron Bank (?)

It does look one sided. But remember that the next two seasons are shortened so there really doesn't have to be much in the way of even battle. They can even have the Cersei's rule implode before Dany even gets there (still a decent chance that burned out red keep is Cersei's doing, not dragons). I mean, based on Westerosi history, even if it was fairly close the dragons would make it lopsided.

All that being said, for the sake of argument, Dany has nowhere near half the Iron Islands fleet. And while it is sort of presumed the Vale will stick with the North, it is not a given.

[Abyss]

@Terez - good point, forgot that. Tho the bank may support Cersei against possible debt collection vs Dany who will cheerfully owe them nothing.

All that said, given the relatively brief two seasons, we'll likely get a suicidal defense by Cersei's forces (ending in Jaime probably having to go all kinslayer on her) that leaves the 7Ks in an unprepared, disorganized, refugee-laden mess, just as Winter hits, the Wall drops and the White Walkers come strolling in with their zombie army at the end of the next season, followed by the big finish conflict between Ice and Fire for the final season. Maybe throw in a massive betrayal by Littlefinger or Dorne just for good measure. Also, genitals.

[Aptorian]

Do you really think the wall will fall? After the way they showed the undead in the last season, I don't think a normal army can fight them at all. They move like the insect-like zombies from the World War Z movie. Only way I see it making sense is if the Wall is fully manned and you have tens of thousands of soldiers dumping everything they have on the horde while the dragons do fire bombing runs.

[Nevyn]

Apt, on 20 July 2016 - 03:48 PM, said:

Do you really think the wall will fall? After the way they showed the undead in the last season, I don't think a normal army can fight them at all. They move like the insect-like zombies from the World War Z movie. Only way I see it making sense is if the Wall is fully manned and you have tens of thousands of soldiers dumping everything they have on the horde while the dragons do fire bombing runs.

The wall almost has to fall. Or at least have the magic broken so the walkers can pass.

I am assuming the following.

Next season, we get a King's Landing meltdown, some Euron raiding (or retaking the iron islands, or both), and the North being rallied to fight the walkers at the wall. Near the finale the wall comes down.

Final season, Jon leading a fighting retreat, and Dany rallying the rest to come up and meet the threat, so the final battle has the walkers vs Jon, Dany, Bran, dragons and several armies. Then perhaps some denouement where the final kingdom is sorted and rebuilding.

And of course, many betrayals, deaths, boobs, and such along the way.

[Whisperzzzzzzz]

Apt, on 20 July 2016 - 03:48 PM, said:

Do you really think the wall will fall? After the way they showed the undead in the last season, I don't think a normal army can fight them at all. They move like the insect-like zombies from the World War Z movie. Only way I see it making sense is if the Wall is fully manned and you have tens of thousands of soldiers dumping everything they have on the horde while the dragons do fire bombing runs.

In the books

Spoiler

it's heavily hinted that the Wall will fall. There are even a few plot devices in play that have the power to bring it down.

[Primateus]

Abyss, on 20 July 2016 - 03:24 PM, said:

@Terez - good point, forgot that. Tho the bank may support Cersei against possible debt collection vs Dany who will cheerfully owe them nothing.

I agree, I don't think the Iron Bank will support Dany because I doubt she'll agree to take the debt on herself, owing back to the logic of Jorah Mormont in season 1, "He had no right, he did it because he could".

Why on earth would she agree to be bound by the foolishness of her predecessors just because she conquered the seven kingdoms?

[Terez]

Nevyn, on 20 July 2016 - 02:36 PM, said:

All that being said, for the sake of argument, Dany has nowhere near half the Iron Islands fleet.

I know it's just for the sake of argument, but the only reason Dany even needed ships was to get her army across the ocean. She hardly needs them for battle.

Abyss, on 20 July 2016 - 03:24 PM, said:

@Terez - good point, forgot that. Tho the bank may support Cersei against possible debt collection vs Dany who will cheerfully owe them nothing.

Seeing as how she's the one who decided it was a good idea to stop paying on the debt, I kind of doubt the Iron Bank is going to support her. Dany has proven she has the ability to rule, while Cersei has demonstrated quite thoroughly that she's incompetent and does nothing but cause chaos. Why would the Bank back her? Dany has Tyrion advising her; she's not likely to do something as stupid as refuse to pay the crown's debts, regardless of who ran them up.

Apt, on 20 July 2016 - 03:48 PM, said:

Do you really think the wall will fall? After the way they showed the undead in the last season, I don't think a normal army can fight them at all.

There's always fire... and there's obsidian on Dragonstone for the Walkers. Depends on whether they decide to use that in the show.

Whisperzzzzzzz, on 20 July 2016 - 04:49 PM, said:

In the books

Spoiler

it's heavily hinted that the Wall will fall. There are even a few plot devices in play that have the power to bring it down.

There's also a plot device in the show that isn't in the books, at least yet: Bran might negate the magic at the Wall when he passes through it. I dunno if that would cause the Wall to actually fall, but it would let the Walkers and the wights through.