Ford is reportedly going to call an provincial Ontario election next Wednesday, and we will vote Feb 28th.
So this has a few prongs.
1. As we've noted before, Ontario is fickle and has NEVER had a Conservative party in power provincially, while we've had the Federal Conservative party also in power....in fact the only two times it KIND of happened were in between traditional election cycles and both instances were corrected at the very next election. Ford knows this fact, and he knows that if the Cons get in Federally whenever that election happens (Spring, Summer, October) that he is very likely toast at the Provincial level and the Cons will end up in the political weeds for a decade. His govt isn't due for an election until 2026, so he's essentially trying to end-run around the Ontario Liberal/Conservative govt Dichotomy and get himself four more years now in case Pollievre and the Fed Cons gain power.
2. Scandals don't stick to the Cons as much as they stick to the Liberals because the Cons and Con voters will never stop ranting about the liberals or Trudeau...but the Liberals and Leftist voters aren't still talking about Ford's various Scandals...and he sent out $200 bribe you with your own money cheques...and he's standing up for Canada in the face of Trump (which let's be real is likely mostly self-serving to get himself elected...but I do want to give him a little credit...if there was anyone who was going to be a barking attack dog for his country...it's probably Doug Ford...so like 90% self serving, and 10% patriotism)...so his odds of winning are probably very high. I don't know if he gets another majority (I feel like more people will go out to vote this go round), but he's at least positioned to win again. My new home is in deep Conservative territory now, so my NDP vote will probably not count much, but it's something. I hope the NDP and Marit still make up the opposition if that happens.
3. Because Ford likely gets in and because Pollievre and he do not get along, and because of more Conservative party shenanigans at the provincial level...that makes Pollievre's path to winning Ontario in a Federal election MUCH steeper (most foreigners may not know that Ontario has the most people in Canada by a LOT; like 20million VS Alberta's 4million or Saskatchewan's 1.5million ect., if you want to win the Federal election you NEED Ontario to vote for you to get a plurality of votes for your party...having the Western more right wing provinces in your pocket does little to nothing considering Toronto alone trumps their populations). Add in that Mark Carney (should he gain the Liberal leadership) is a centrist, not part of Trudeau's inner circle so no taint, is an economist who led two Central world banks through crises and a smart and eloquent speaker who talks policy (while PP rants about the Carbon Tax)..like in another world Carney would be a Fiscal Conservative (not a Liberal) had the Federal Cons not slid so far to the social right with Pollievre attempting to copy Trump...so if anyone has a shot at winning over Ontario's fence sitting Cons who hated Trudeau, but realize PP is not going to save them...it's him. So make no mistake, what happens in Ontario in a provincial election is ABSOLUTELY going to affect the Federal one.
Anyways, I'm not exactly happy Ford is calling an election early to stave off his party losing power...but here we are.
EDIT to add: This man already has a majority government with over a year and change left in that govt...so calling a snap election because you want "a strong mandate" while you ALREADY have the strongest mandate you can have from the Ontario people...is usually a thing smart people will point out as uneeded and a waste of taxpayer money....we had a former Premier attempt this exact same move in 1990 (David Peterson) who only 3 years into his term called a snap election to capitalize on his polling popularity, and instead of wining another majority, he destroyed the Ontario Liberal party politically and the NDP unexpectedly won a majority in the biggest election upset in Canadian history...I think like 74 seats flipped to them...it was epic. We could always hope that Ford's move here while he already has the majority govt will result in similar complaints from the voters who would be just like "You have a majority, just do your fucking job and stop wasting time and money on an election 1.5 years early"...but Ontarians have gotten dumber since 1990, so you never know.
This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 23 January 2025 - 02:13 PM
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Azath Vitr (D, on 19 January 2025 - 03:32 PM, said:
