[Abyss]

QuickTidal, on 03 May 2022 - 06:29 PM, said:

Abyss, on 03 May 2022 - 06:12 PM, said:

"Conservatives told not to comment on U.S. Supreme Court abortion rights leak"

Yeah, that's ok, we already knew where they stood.

Indeed.

If they thought they could touch it and that the parliamentary multi-party system would not utterly destroy them...they would 100% touch it. But they won't. Because most of them are smart enough to know it won't work here. Oosterhoff is spouting off (that cancerous POS needs to go away), but even PP is not touching it with a ten foot pole beyond lip service to aim himself at the Con leadership.

The good news is that our Charter protects women much better than the vagaries of the US Constitution, as violations of Section 7 are pretty sacrosanct...so turning our Supreme Court decision over would require FAR more than any Conservative govt would be willing to risk, and far more clout than they'd ever have to figure out how to loophole around Section 7.

Agreed it would be very very difficult to pull this off in Canada.
I just wish i could say 'impossible'.

[LinearPhilosopher]

Abyss, on 03 May 2022 - 09:22 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 03 May 2022 - 06:29 PM, said:

Abyss, on 03 May 2022 - 06:12 PM, said:

"Conservatives told not to comment on U.S. Supreme Court abortion rights leak"

Yeah, that's ok, we already knew where they stood.

Indeed.

If they thought they could touch it and that the parliamentary multi-party system would not utterly destroy them...they would 100% touch it. But they won't. Because most of them are smart enough to know it won't work here. Oosterhoff is spouting off (that cancerous POS needs to go away), but even PP is not touching it with a ten foot pole beyond lip service to aim himself at the Con leadership.

The good news is that our Charter protects women much better than the vagaries of the US Constitution, as violations of Section 7 are pretty sacrosanct...so turning our Supreme Court decision over would require FAR more than any Conservative govt would be willing to risk, and far more clout than they'd ever have to figure out how to loophole around Section 7.

Agreed it would be very very difficult to pull this off in Canada.
I just wish i could say 'impossible'.

I mean as d'rek pointed out to me earlier, they don't need to directly challenge it to do damage. They just need to make it harder to get an abortion and damage is done.

Also ontario has an election announced.

I sincerely hope this means come june we are done with ford.

[QuickTidal]

LinearPhilosopher, on 04 May 2022 - 02:15 AM, said:

I sincerely hope this means come june we are done with ford.

As much as I'd like to see it, I have a feeling you're in for disappointment. The pessimist in me says Ford gets in again.

It could be worse, in Toronto for lack of even a warm body to go up against John Tory...the man who said he'd only run two terms is running for a 3rd largely unopposed...

[Abyss]

Just my $0.02 cnd....
Ford's performance thru the pandemic has been juuuuust good enough that unless one of the other leaders comes absolutely surging forward with a popular platform and a level of charisma we're unlikely to see, i wouldn't bet big $ against him unless he gets caught doing something nefarious or gross between now and election day. The highway thing won't be enough. Del Duca is a career politician and his platform looks social services spending heavy... i think it's good but not good enough to sway the undecideds - everyone loves the idea of fixing schools and keeping seniors at home, not everyone has kids and/or dependant elders - unless he can majorly raise his game. Horwath... the NDP have definitely seen an increase since the last election, but i suspect thats more from the Liberal's loss than anything to do w her leadership. This may be a battle for second place. Just guessing, i could be wrong.

[QuickTidal]

Abyss, on 04 May 2022 - 04:20 PM, said:

Just my $0.02 cnd....
Ford's performance thru the pandemic has been juuuuust good enough that unless one of the other leaders comes absolutely surging forward with a popular platform and a level of charisma we're unlikely to see, i wouldn't bet big $ against him unless he gets caught doing something nefarious or gross between now and election day. The highway thing won't be enough. Del Duca is a career politician and his platform looks social services spending heavy... i think it's good but not good enough to sway the undecideds - everyone loves the idea of fixing schools and keeping seniors at home, not everyone has kids and/or dependant elders - unless he can majorly raise his game. Horwath... the NDP have definitely seen an increase since the last election, but i suspect thats more from the Liberal's loss than anything to do w her leadership. This may be a battle for second place. Just guessing, i could be wrong.

I think this is accurate. Sadly.

Also as an NDP supporter....Horwath should have stepped down as leader since the last election. No offence to her, but she's had multiple kicks at the can and say what you will but fresh blood leadership for the ONDP would go a LONG way to helping their chances....and I'm a little annoyed she's not stepped aside yet.

I also think it's no contest that the next ONDP leader should be Bhutila Karpoche. An elegant speaker, and a compelling voice for change.

But what do I know?

[Abyss]

QuickTidal, on 04 May 2022 - 04:52 PM, said:

Abyss, on 04 May 2022 - 04:20 PM, said:

Just my $0.02 cnd....
Ford's performance thru the pandemic has been juuuuust good enough that unless one of the other leaders comes absolutely surging forward with a popular platform and a level of charisma we're unlikely to see, i wouldn't bet big $ against him unless he gets caught doing something nefarious or gross between now and election day. The highway thing won't be enough. Del Duca is a career politician and his platform looks social services spending heavy... i think it's good but not good enough to sway the undecideds - everyone loves the idea of fixing schools and keeping seniors at home, not everyone has kids and/or dependant elders - unless he can majorly raise his game. Horwath... the NDP have definitely seen an increase since the last election, but i suspect thats more from the Liberal's loss than anything to do w her leadership. This may be a battle for second place. Just guessing, i could be wrong.

I think this is accurate. Sadly.

Also as an NDP supporter....Horwath should have stepped down as leader since the last election. No offence to her, but she's had multiple kicks at the can and say what you will but fresh blood leadership for the ONDP would go a LONG way to helping their chances....and I'm a little annoyed she's not stepped aside yet.

I also think it's no contest that the next ONDP leader should be Bhutila Karpoche. An elegant speaker, and a compelling voice for change.

But what do I know?

I suspect Horwath sees this as her last shot at the premiere job, the Liberals are still at low ebb with an unproven leader, and Ford is as disliked as he's likely to get (which, amazingly, is not very). She won't miss it barring a complete revolution in the NDP ranks that would likely decrease public support from voters they took from the Libs or undecideds.

[QuickTidal]

Abyss, on 04 May 2022 - 06:14 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 04 May 2022 - 04:52 PM, said:

Abyss, on 04 May 2022 - 04:20 PM, said:

Just my $0.02 cnd....
Ford's performance thru the pandemic has been juuuuust good enough that unless one of the other leaders comes absolutely surging forward with a popular platform and a level of charisma we're unlikely to see, i wouldn't bet big $ against him unless he gets caught doing something nefarious or gross between now and election day. The highway thing won't be enough. Del Duca is a career politician and his platform looks social services spending heavy... i think it's good but not good enough to sway the undecideds - everyone loves the idea of fixing schools and keeping seniors at home, not everyone has kids and/or dependant elders - unless he can majorly raise his game. Horwath... the NDP have definitely seen an increase since the last election, but i suspect thats more from the Liberal's loss than anything to do w her leadership. This may be a battle for second place. Just guessing, i could be wrong.

I think this is accurate. Sadly.

Also as an NDP supporter....Horwath should have stepped down as leader since the last election. No offence to her, but she's had multiple kicks at the can and say what you will but fresh blood leadership for the ONDP would go a LONG way to helping their chances....and I'm a little annoyed she's not stepped aside yet.

I also think it's no contest that the next ONDP leader should be Bhutila Karpoche. An elegant speaker, and a compelling voice for change.

But what do I know?

I suspect Horwath sees this as her last shot at the premiere job, the Liberals are still at low ebb with an unproven leader, and Ford is as disliked as he's likely to get (which, amazingly, is not very). She won't miss it barring a complete revolution in the NDP ranks that would likely decrease public support from voters they took from the Libs or undecideds.

Well if she doesn't make it this time (and she won't. Like she has zero chance), she needs to step the hell down already. She lost a 'gimme' election in which the other parties had a much disliked Kathleen Wynne, and a no-platform failed label salesman...

[Abyss]

QuickTidal, on 04 May 2022 - 07:25 PM, said:

Abyss, on 04 May 2022 - 06:14 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 04 May 2022 - 04:52 PM, said:

Abyss, on 04 May 2022 - 04:20 PM, said:

Just my $0.02 cnd....
Ford's performance thru the pandemic has been juuuuust good enough that unless one of the other leaders comes absolutely surging forward with a popular platform and a level of charisma we're unlikely to see, i wouldn't bet big $ against him unless he gets caught doing something nefarious or gross between now and election day. The highway thing won't be enough. Del Duca is a career politician and his platform looks social services spending heavy... i think it's good but not good enough to sway the undecideds - everyone loves the idea of fixing schools and keeping seniors at home, not everyone has kids and/or dependant elders - unless he can majorly raise his game. Horwath... the NDP have definitely seen an increase since the last election, but i suspect thats more from the Liberal's loss than anything to do w her leadership. This may be a battle for second place. Just guessing, i could be wrong.

I think this is accurate. Sadly.

Also as an NDP supporter....Horwath should have stepped down as leader since the last election. No offence to her, but she's had multiple kicks at the can and say what you will but fresh blood leadership for the ONDP would go a LONG way to helping their chances....and I'm a little annoyed she's not stepped aside yet.

I also think it's no contest that the next ONDP leader should be Bhutila Karpoche. An elegant speaker, and a compelling voice for change.

But what do I know?

I suspect Horwath sees this as her last shot at the premiere job, the Liberals are still at low ebb with an unproven leader, and Ford is as disliked as he's likely to get (which, amazingly, is not very). She won't miss it barring a complete revolution in the NDP ranks that would likely decrease public support from voters they took from the Libs or undecideds.

Well if she doesn't make it this time (and she won't. Like she has zero chance), she needs to step the hell down already. She lost a 'gimme' election in which the other parties had a much disliked Kathleen Wynne, and a no-platform failed label salesman...

Yah, i suspect it's a situation where the party prefers she lose and then hand it off to a new leader, rather than put the new leader in for a loss right at the start of their ascension. The time to replace her was six months ago, it's telling that they didn't.

[QuickTidal]

I hate my province.

Ontario had an election last night.

43% of the Province of 15.8milion people voted, a dismal turnout. Ford and the PCs won on 40% of that 43% of voters....so doing the dirty math 2.6 million people decided the fate of Ontario in a province of 15.8 million.

I thought I was disappointed in my fellow humans during the pandemic...but this is it. Today is the most disappointed.

Our voter turnout is fucking abysmal.

[Mentalist]

Most ridings also tended to have a near-equal split b/w NDP and Libs, for a cumulative "progressive" vote greater than PC.

This is why I despise first-past-the-post.

[QuickTidal]

Mentalist, on 03 June 2022 - 01:49 PM, said:

Most ridings also tended to have a near-equal split b/w NDP and Libs, for a cumulative "progressive" vote greater than PC.

This is why I despise first-past-the-post.

Yep.

Hell, just give us ranked balloting and the OPC would not get another govt in a decade...

[Abyss]

QuickTidal, on 03 June 2022 - 12:55 PM, said:

I hate my province.

Ontario had an election last night.

43% of the Province of 15.8milion people voted, a dismal turnout. Ford and the PCs won on 40% of that 43% of voters....so doing the dirty math 2.6 million people decided the fate of Ontario in a province of 15.8 million.

I thought I was disappointed in my fellow humans during the pandemic...but this is it. Today is the most disappointed.

Our voter turnout is fucking abysmal.

Mentalist, on 03 June 2022 - 01:49 PM, said:

Most ridings also tended to have a near-equal split b/w NDP and Libs, for a cumulative "progressive" vote greater than PC.

This is why I despise first-past-the-post.

The #s are pretty telling.....

Cons w a majority of seats (82) and more or less 50% of the votes.
Libs and NDP splitting the balance of votes but the NDP absolutely clobbering the Libs in seats, 29 to 8.

The Ontario Liberal party is far from recovering from the Wynn days, and the NDP have a long way to go before they can appeal to anyone center-to-right. Naturally Horvath has already announced her retirement from leadership. Del Duca lost his seat AND leadership... the only way those two could have been more sacrificial would have involved obsidian knives and ritual chanting. It was obvious to anyone watching with half a sober brain that the only way they could win was to pull together and that was never going to happen.

Voter turnout is fairly standard. Disappointing but we've kind of arrived at a point where the decision not to vote is the vote. 60% of the province voted that they can't be bothered to give a fnck and will live with whatever the other 40% cough up.

[LinearPhilosopher]

Either that or living under the delusion that by not voting they aren't complicit in the broken system.

I'd heard a while back that whichever party is making a federal government is the opposite party thats making the Ontario government and so far that seems to be holding true.

This post has been edited by LinearPhilosopher: 04 June 2022 - 08:59 PM

[LinearPhilosopher]

I am now seeing gas prices north of $2.10 a liter...


Can't believe I'm saying this, but they should temporarily abolish the carbon tax on gasoline. It's ridiculous how much a fill up of gas costs.

Thank god I work from home. My old commute would have had me turn in my resignation by now.

[Gwynn ap Nudd]

So the BC Liberals are planning on changing their name. Any bets on whether they end up the BC Progressive Conservative Party or Social Credit? My guess would be something like the former, as there are too may people who still remember Vander Zalm. They can't go straight to the plain BC Conservative Party as the BC Conservative party still sort of exists.

I assume this means it is only a matter of time before the BC NDP rebrand themselves as the Liberal Party.

This post has been edited by Gwynn ap Nudd: 13 June 2022 - 05:40 AM

[Abyss]

Gwynn ap Nudd, on 13 June 2022 - 05:38 AM, said:

So the BC Liberals are planning on changing their name. Any bets on whether they end up the BC Progressive Conservative Party or Social Credit? My guess would be something like the former, as there are too may people who still remember Vander Zalm. They can't go straight to the plain BC Conservative Party as the BC Conservative party still sort of exists.

I assume this means it is only a matter of time before the BC NDP rebrand themselves as the Liberal Party.

Every now and then something reminds of how weirdly very very different politics are on either side of this great country of ours.

[QuickTidal]

Ontario's health minister is a deluded piece of utter trash claiming that the closing of ER's is not abnormal....LADY this shit has NEVER happened since I've been alive...what the fuck are you even talking about?!

Fuck the people who voted for Doug Ford, and fuck the people who chose NOT to vote harder...I hope you're all happy with this outcome. Everything is on bloody fire.

[LinearPhilosopher]

Yeah i was shocked it happened in NB, to hear its happening here is something else.

Now is not the time to get sick or need the hospital.

Also I am now a moderna/pfizer hybdrid. One of my buddies is on a quest to catch em all.

[QuickTidal]

So the Cons (obviously) picked Pierre Pollievre as their new leader....shifting the party MUCH further right (this guy supported the Convoy, and anti-COVID measures ect)...the so-called "anti-establishment" candidate who wrote about having term limits of 2 terms....WHILE CURRENTLY SERVING HIS SEVENTH...

LOL.

So yeah, I'm not at all surprised that the Cons picked him...they will clean back up the PPC party splitters they lost (the REALLY crazy nut jobs on the Right), but it will all come at a price.

Some info first for those who don't live here: In Canada winning the general election means getting the urban centre votes, in the GTA in Ontario, getting enough support in Quebec, and holding support in the maritimes. No one else matters as much as they think they do....AB, SASK, and MB combined are 6.6million people....Ontario ALONE is 14.8million, and Quebec a further 8.5million. That's Ontario and Quebec VS everyone else. Ontario on its own is nearly half the voters in the country population-wise. So when they say election night is decided before the Western provinces even get to vote (time differences), they are not lying.

The GTA in Ontario bends Liberal at the Federal level, and somewhat NDP too. Outside of that area it's pretty conservative, but the further north you go...the population ain't (I think the GTA is 9.5million of the 14.8?). Quebec will go separatist (Bloc) or they also bend Liberal. The maritimes have been Liberal/NDP at the Federal level for a long time too. Without these two populations, nothing PP does will mean a hill of beans...he CANNOT win votes where he needs to because courting the Alt-Right vote and conveyors, means he's already lost any chance of getting fence-sitter Liberals tired of Liberal rule.

All that said, I’m now going to tell you what will happen.

One side-thing I want to note: The NDP will see through their Dental plan thing in the next while. Any con govt after that will HAVE to carry that through with their own version, or keep it as is (they won’t like that) or lose a lot of support.

Trudeau WILL NOT RUN in 2025. I know he’s implied otherwise, but he’s not stupid either. Anyone who thinks the next General Election will be Trudeau VS PP is an idiot.

He will pull a MGuinty and step down as he realizes the anchor he is weighing down the party AT LEAST a year, if not more, before any election and Freeland will be put into the role.

Trudeau has only a middling chance of winning in 2025 (I don’t think it’s off the cards entirely, but it’s not any kind of shoe in either)….Freeland has a MUCH better shot at being fresh blood (also, ‘female PM that’s not Kim Campbell’ has a lot going for it), and coupled with the majority of Canada not liking what Angry Milhouse (PP) brings to the table (the alt-right, the convoyers, ect)…Freeland would win in the places she needs to where the seats lay….urban centres in Ontario and Quebec, and the Maritimes. NDP’ers would, I think, even cross the vote to the Libs to keep Angry Milhouse out.

Freeland would have a minority govt, and the NDP would work with her for some shared reasons I'm sure.

I would only give Angry Milhouse a VERY SLIM chance of getting anywhere NEAR the PM slot…and if he does/they do by some weird miracle of lackadaisical urban voters turning heel, it will be a minority and as such, the Libs and the NDP controlling most of the seats, would ‘no confidence’ him about forming govt. So he would be kneecapped anyways.

There is no avenue to Angry Milhouse being PM really with the way our country is structed and votes…and if he did find an avenue, the ineffectuality would occur in no confidence.

[Abyss]

I doubt PP has the credibility to pull it off, but stealing support from the Bloc wouldn't be very hard w the right messaging.

Trudeau is more likely to want to be the guy who stepped aside for Canada's first elected female PM than lead another minority gov, but I can't quite agree it's a lock for him to step aside.