[Abyss]

If Carney can deal with the yelling and interruptions - and i'm not yet certain he can - he's going to have an absolute field day in the debates. All he really has to do is wait for opportunities to drop in "oh is that what Donald Trump/Modi told you to say?" and watch the smoke come out of pp's ears. Also an occasional "well if you had agreed to a security clearance you would know why you're wrong" and maybe a few "clearly you have me confused with the other guy, the one you keep yelling about even tho he left three months ago".

[QuickTidal]

Speaking of Pollievre's slogans and lies.


His whole 15% Income Tax Cut is hiding the context.


So the Cons under PP have pledged to cut income tax 15%, and the Liberals under Carney have pledged 1%.

Now that SOUNDS like a massive difference...but the context is key and Pollievre knows it.

So if the tax rate is 15%, Carney is dropping it to 14%, a one percent drop in the marginal rate, Pollievre is offering a 15% cut ON the 15% tax rate, which makes it 12.75%, so in reality Carney is offering 1% and Pollievre is offering 2.25%. In a normal world he would have just said 2.25%, but he doesn't live in that world, he lives in the one where he expects we are all dumb.


Now that still may show the Cons telling you they will cut more of your income tax than the Liberals even if it's only a 1.25% difference, but bear in mind that over the year that savings is $825 back from the Liberals, and Pollievre says $2k over the year. And also bear in mind that the Conservatives need to find this money somewhere and they will ABSOLUTELY cut social service funding to make that happen as they have time and time again in our past....while it sounds like the Liberals under Carney are going to do what bankers do and cut the chaff and bloat at the govt level (Trudeaus govt is famously larger than normal), which is why it's lower than what the Cons are offering.


But yeah, the fact that PP is like 15% Tax Cut! As if it will be a full 15% of your income tax back to you every year is a full blown lie of omission.

-----------------

Oh and sidebar new info: Sean Fraser was asked personally by Carney to come back to the party, and he has agreed. That's great news and shows us that Fraser leaving didn't have to do with the party, but the leadership.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 25 March 2025 - 02:50 PM

[Abyss]

CBC poll roundup today had the Libs up 2-3 points over the Cons. The worm, she is turning, eh.

[QuickTidal]

I feel like Marlaina Danielle Smith is doing more damage to the CPC campaign than even Trump is.

She is cushioning any retaliatory blows that would knock the sense into Americans to end this ridiculousness.

She is effectively having Alberta abandon the Canadian cause and just seeks to fight for a paltry side-pot; to the benefit of a single industry for which she is a lobbyist, and nothing more. An industry they should all be reminded is in its waning days that does not invest back into the communities it exploits. They reap the rewards and refuse to sow towards our future. They blame Ottawa instead.

She has betrayed both Albertans and all Canadians. Her actions show her lowness of character.

Her party (The Wild Rose Party wearing a UCP skin suit) is mired in corruption. She just insults Canadians further by trying to deceive the people who know her best.

How she runs things is a glimpse of how the CPC would do it, and quite frankly I feel like she knows that the next provincial election in Alberta is going to be ROUGH for her, if she's not ousted by the rest of the UCP by then.

And fucking Scott Moe is the Milhouse to her Bart, copying her play book and tagging along behind her like a lost, deranged, drunken vehicular homicidal puppy.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 27 March 2025 - 12:32 PM

[QuickTidal]

Trump getting Quebec en masse to crow about sovereignty and unity? Man he fucked up harder than he thought...Second largest province after Ontario population-wise.

Do you know how badly you need to fuck up to make Quebecers PATRIOTIC about Canada?!

[QuickTidal]

Doug Ford’s internal polling paints a grim picture for Pierre Poilievre in Ontario

Brother, some of this is WILD.

Quote

Kory Teneycke, Ford’s campaign manager in the premier’s successful re-election on Feb. 27, provided the Star with the detailed internal polling, which is rarely made public.

“For the Conservatives ... in the campaign cockpit, every buzzer and alarm is going off and the plane is like going bzzzzz and it’s like, ‘pull up, pull up, pull up,’” he told the 200 attendees at the event.

“You’ve got to have a pivot that’s taking some of the momentum of that issue shift and direct it towards things that are yours. It’s not going to happen if you’re talking about the World Economic Forum or the Century Initiative or God knows whatever other thing that is ... of little or no relevance to voters.”

But any strategic shift would be challenging due to “the basic unlikability of Poilievre right now,” the Tory strategist told an Empire Club audience that included some visibly rattled federal Conservatives.

“He looks too much like Trump. He sounds too much like Trump. He uses the lexicon of Trump,” he said, noting the CPC campaign slogan “Canada First for a Change” mirrors the president’s “America First.”

Like do you know how fucking INSANE it is that Ford's PC Campaign manager is out there not only dropping internal polling numbers (really unheard of), but giving a speech to Federal cons being like "Your guy is fucked, and even if he pivots now he will look flip-floppy"? Like I thought the knives were out when Ford refused to help PP in his campaign, but this is next level. I think Ford knows VERY well that with Carney in office he can continue as he has been, but if PP gets in the funding train is over, so he's out here pulling night of Knives shit.

Has politics in Canada ever been this fucked up but riveting?

[Mentalist]

QuickTidal, on 27 March 2025 - 05:49 PM, said:

Doug Ford’s internal polling paints a grim picture for Pierre Poilievre in Ontario

Brother, some of this is WILD.

Quote

Kory Teneycke, Ford’s campaign manager in the premier’s successful re-election on Feb. 27, provided the Star with the detailed internal polling, which is rarely made public.

“For the Conservatives ... in the campaign cockpit, every buzzer and alarm is going off and the plane is like going bzzzzz and it’s like, ‘pull up, pull up, pull up,’” he told the 200 attendees at the event.

“You’ve got to have a pivot that’s taking some of the momentum of that issue shift and direct it towards things that are yours. It’s not going to happen if you’re talking about the World Economic Forum or the Century Initiative or God knows whatever other thing that is ... of little or no relevance to voters.”

But any strategic shift would be challenging due to “the basic unlikability of Poilievre right now,” the Tory strategist told an Empire Club audience that included some visibly rattled federal Conservatives.

“He looks too much like Trump. He sounds too much like Trump. He uses the lexicon of Trump,” he said, noting the CPC campaign slogan “Canada First for a Change” mirrors the president’s “America First.”

Like do you know how fucking INSANE it is that Ford's PC Campaign manager is out there not only dropping internal polling numbers (really unheard of), but giving a speech to Federal cons being like "Your guy is fucked, and even if he pivots now he will look flip-floppy"? Like I thought the knives were out when Ford refused to help PP in his campaign, but this is next level. I think Ford knows VERY well that with Carney in office he can continue as he has been, but if PP gets in the funding train is over, so he's out here pulling night of Knives shit.

Has politics in Canada ever been this fucked up but riveting?

Because we were so closely attached to the US, Canadian politics almost never had a foreign policy aspect, and it was always about the mundane, boring, domestic issues.

This election is basically 100% about foreign policy (which is what's killing the NDP, because they literally NEVER said anything about foreign policy, because they never expected to actually get in charge where they'd have to worry about it), and so it's part of the global drama we've all been forced to follow anyway.

[Abyss]

QuickTidal, on 27 March 2025 - 05:30 PM, said:

Trump getting Quebec en masse to crow about sovereignty and unity? Man he fucked up harder than he thought...Second largest province after Ontario population-wise.

Do you know how badly you need to fuck up to make Quebecers PATRIOTIC about Canada?!

Quebec as a general population is FUCKING FURIOUS. I love them for it, i'm not surprised, they were already angry about amazon and now he's fucking w the snowbirds and that is deadly territory... no American is going to mess with La Belle Province.

Mentalist, on 28 March 2025 - 02:38 AM, said:

QuickTidal, on 27 March 2025 - 05:49 PM, said:

Doug Ford's internal polling paints a grim picture for Pierre Poilievre in Ontario

Brother, some of this is WILD.

Quote

Kory Teneycke, Ford's campaign manager in the premier's successful re-election on Feb. 27, provided the Star with the detailed internal polling, which is rarely made public.

"For the Conservatives ... in the campaign cockpit, every buzzer and alarm is going off and the plane is like going bzzzzz and it's like, 'pull up, pull up, pull up,'" he told the 200 attendees at the event.

"You've got to have a pivot that's taking some of the momentum of that issue shift and direct it towards things that are yours. It's not going to happen if you're talking about the World Economic Forum or the Century Initiative or God knows whatever other thing that is ... of little or no relevance to voters."

But any strategic shift would be challenging due to "the basic unlikability of Poilievre right now," the Tory strategist told an Empire Club audience that included some visibly rattled federal Conservatives.

"He looks too much like Trump. He sounds too much like Trump. He uses the lexicon of Trump," he said, noting the CPC campaign slogan "Canada First for a Change" mirrors the president's "America First."

Like do you know how fucking INSANE it is that Ford's PC Campaign manager is out there not only dropping internal polling numbers (really unheard of), but giving a speech to Federal cons being like "Your guy is fucked, and even if he pivots now he will look flip-floppy"? Like I thought the knives were out when Ford refused to help PP in his campaign, but this is next level. I think Ford knows VERY well that with Carney in office he can continue as he has been, but if PP gets in the funding train is over, so he's out here pulling night of Knives shit.

Has politics in Canada ever been this fucked up but riveting?

Because we were so closely attached to the US, Canadian politics almost never had a foreign policy aspect, and it was always about the mundane, boring, domestic issues.

This election is basically 100% about foreign policy (which is what's killing the NDP, because they literally NEVER said anything about foreign policy, because they never expected to actually get in charge where they'd have to worry about it), and so it's part of the global drama we've all been forced to follow anyway.

This is wild. It's tempered somewhat because the underlying narrative is Doug's rise to power a few years from now but we'll deal w that when we get there... Trump may have destroyed PP, triggered a major shift for the NDP a leader change at a minimum, and resurrected the Libs.

What. The fucking. Fuck.

[QuickTidal]

Some polls now showing PP losing his own seat in Carleton. Now, I don't expect that to actually happen....he's held it through seven consecutive elections, I doubt people in his riding are pissed enough to shift him...but still, if the news is talking about you losing your SEAT in polls never mind winning the election overall....ya dun fucked up.

[LinearPhilosopher]

QuickTidal, on 25 March 2025 - 02:50 PM, said:

Speaking of Pollievre's slogans and lies.


His whole 15% Income Tax Cut is hiding the context.


So the Cons under PP have pledged to cut income tax 15%, and the Liberals under Carney have pledged 1%.

Now that SOUNDS like a massive difference...but the context is key and Pollievre knows it.

So if the tax rate is 15%, Carney is dropping it to 14%, a one percent drop in the marginal rate, Pollievre is offering a 15% cut ON the 15% tax rate, which makes it 12.75%, so in reality Carney is offering 1% and Pollievre is offering 2.25%. In a normal world he would have just said 2.25%, but he doesn't live in that world, he lives in the one where he expects we are all dumb.


Now that still may show the Cons telling you they will cut more of your income tax than the Liberals even if it's only a 1.25% difference, but bear in mind that over the year that savings is $825 back from the Liberals, and Pollievre says $2k over the year. And also bear in mind that the Conservatives need to find this money somewhere and they will ABSOLUTELY cut social service funding to make that happen as they have time and time again in our past....while it sounds like the Liberals under Carney are going to do what bankers do and cut the chaff and bloat at the govt level (Trudeaus govt is famously larger than normal), which is why it's lower than what the Cons are offering.


But yeah, the fact that PP is like 15% Tax Cut! As if it will be a full 15% of your income tax back to you every year is a full blown lie of omission.

-----------------

Oh and sidebar new info: Sean Fraser was asked personally by Carney to come back to the party, and he has agreed. That's great news and shows us that Fraser leaving didn't have to do with the party, but the leadership.

If theres one thing I hate about elections its promises of terrible tax policy.

blanket tax cuts are dumb. At least scrapping the GST on new homes is a solid policy to impact the affordability of new builds (which have been struggling).

But slashing the lowest bracket? The people who need the help the most barely pay any income tax as it is.

I'm also honestly surprised Mark Carney has been getting as much of a pass as he has been in Quebec given how terrible his french is (not that pollievre's is THAT much better... I basically have to ffwd any CPAC recordings I watch).

[QuickTidal]

LinearPhilosopher, on 28 March 2025 - 12:56 PM, said:

blanket tax cuts are dumb. At least scrapping the GST on new homes is a solid policy to impact the affordability of new builds (which have been struggling).

Except it should be on all homes even resale homes, not just new builds as not many new builds are actually happening to make it worth anyones while as a promise. Nevermind that new builds have been jacked up in price "for reasons" by builders....when a tiny townhome in bumfuck nowhere is selling STARTING at a million....that's highway robbery that no GST rebate is even going to check for most starter home buyers.

LinearPhilosopher, on 28 March 2025 - 12:56 PM, said:

I'm also honestly surprised Mark Carney has been getting as much of a pass as he has been in Quebec given how terrible his french is (not that pollievre's is THAT much better... I basically have to ffwd any CPAC recordings I watch).

It's a non-starter complaint.

We had Chretien's heavily accented English for a long time and no one held it against him. Like ever. And Quebec is pissed at PP for bowing to/aligning with Trump. Quebec hates Canada, but they hate anyone threatening that Canada more.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 28 March 2025 - 01:38 PM

[Abyss]

The Qc shifts are fascinating... usually a significant chunk outside of Montreal/environs go w the Bloque by default. This time, our fine neighbours to the south have made them so angry that it seems that they're looking at the federal election in terms of what's best for Canada including Qc, as opposed to what's best for Qc within Canada. Neither PP nor Carney can really sell themselves as having a strong connection to Qc but who can deal w trumpland best is actully an issue the Quebecois care about and Blanchet really has nothing much to offer beyond being able to work w whoever wins, which is still a better sell for Carney.

[LinearPhilosopher]

@QT.

There is no sales tax on pre existing homes. Unless an existing home was substantially renovated (don't ask) or it was a "commercial property" (ie primarily an Airbnb) there is no gST/HST on it.

The reason the price for new builds are jacked was the cost of materials and labor went through the roof (looking at financials for construction companies is not fun let me tell ya).

Those costs are only going to go up.

Re chrétien: he had a thick accent but it's less of a hang up on the English side then the French side.

I don't personally care all that much but it is surprising.

[Abyss]

Chretien was also a product of his time... there were way more anglophones in Qc, the NDP wasn't a significant force to draw people away from the Libs, Alberta wasn't nearly the oil powerhouse it would become with related boost to the Tories, and the FLQ crisis, terrorism generally, and Cold War called for the kind of tough guy he presented as.

[QuickTidal]

LinearPhilosopher, on 28 March 2025 - 11:02 PM, said:

The reason the price for new builds are jacked was the cost of materials and labor went through the roof (looking at financials for construction companies is not fun let me tell ya).

Materials and labor didn’t go through the roof for no reason…they went through the roof because everyone took covid as an excuse to gouge (claiming supply chain issues)and never stopped gouging. All down the line. And the builders are in on it.

I could give a sweet fuck about anything else. The bottom line is none of this stuff should still be overpriced, and yet here we are.

[Abyss]

Latest CBC poll compiler has the libs up 41 to the cons 37. Interesting but not surprising, the lib gain is mostly at the ndp and bloc expense, the cons are relatively stable.
Some projections - more than one might expect but we're a month out so accuracy is iffy - have the libs at a majority, cons in opposition, bloc losing seats, and ndp losing official party status. A few have the cons at a minority, i didn't do a deep dive but if any project a con majority they're outlier at this point.

[Mentalist]

pp needs to pull a constructive campaign program out of his ass that isn't just populist tripe of "make food cheaper" and "build the homes", which is stuff he has no means to deliver

That and, y'know, cuss out Fox News for the 51st state BS.

Otherwise they'll keep circling the drain. And deservedly so.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 31 March 2025 - 01:38 AM

[Tsundoku]

... aaaaand from just one year ago ...

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 31 March 2025 - 10:54 AM

[QuickTidal]

Abyss, on 30 March 2025 - 04:53 PM, said:

Latest CBC poll - the cons are relatively stable.

They've bled some of the more "Fiscal old school" Cons, but probably not enough to move the meter. Which is wild. So many Con voters are probably following the ship down for lack of awareness of the policies, or leader...and just vote blue no matter what...meanwhile Carney is EVERYTHING they've been asking for since 2004....but because he's under the other colour umbrella they can't bring themselves to do it. I don't think THAT many Con voters align with Reform/Alliance Populist BS....I just think a lot of people (not just Cons mind you) vote blindly for "team" and not policies.

Mentalist, on 31 March 2025 - 01:38 AM, said:

pp needs to pull a constructive campaign program out of his ass that isn't just populist tripe of "make food cheaper" and "build the homes", which is stuff he has no means to deliver

That and, y'know, cuss out Fox News for the 51st state BS.

Otherwise they'll keep circling the drain. And deservedly so.

Internally reports are that he and Jenni Byrne (his ex girlfriend, Loblaws lobbyist, and campaign manager) REFUSE to change or pivot the campaign, while members of the Con party want him to pivot....and the milquetoast WEEKS TOO LATE "knock it off" to Trump is simply not cutting the mustard. So I think that indicates that if they hold this line and lose, he's gone as leader.

[Tiste Simeon]

Big article on the BBC today about Danielle Smith, she seems like a piece of work (though I already assumed that from you guys).

Here's hoping her brand of insanity divides the right further.

BBC News - The Canadian Conservative trying to sweet talk Trump
https://www.bbc.com/...es/c0jgx10z8qqo