[Korabas]

Serc, on 06 November 2014 - 07:44 PM, said:

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 07:40 PM, said:

We definitely need to pool from what I have seen from day two to three. Time for a game plan, what we need to do is the opposite of what you think you would normally do. We need to manipulate the game in manner where we create players four and another lower percentage town as scum.If you review the realities where Eloth, player four, is scum it is down to 32 of the remaining realities. Sorry Eloth! This would get us closer to the final reality that anything, anyone has suggested. Ideas on how to get this accomplished?

Well Eloths probability of being scum increase as other players eliminate their own realities where they are scum by using their NAs against potential scum allies. SO I guess the way to make the scum be who we want is to organise ourselves to isolate two players into being forced into it by each putting in a NA to kill everyone else, hopefully before they collapse their own scum realities.

Doesn't seem realistic, as no one is going to let us choreograph their own destruction.

Ok, maybe I am wrong in my assessment as it moves from day three to four, the amount of realities would increase on the players that we paired together. Ok, I got you and worth a try. That second part makes much more sense as we have at least one player linked to an alt. I am standing with action versus these night votes, after reviewing the graph in more detail with absolute certainty.

[Eloth]

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 07:50 PM, said:

Serc, on 06 November 2014 - 07:44 PM, said:

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 07:40 PM, said:

We definitely need to pool from what I have seen from day two to three. Time for a game plan, what we need to do is the opposite of what you think you would normally do. We need to manipulate the game in manner where we create players four and another lower percentage town as scum.If you review the realities where Eloth, player four, is scum it is down to 32 of the remaining realities. Sorry Eloth! This would get us closer to the final reality that anything, anyone has suggested. Ideas on how to get this accomplished?

Well Eloths probability of being scum increase as other players eliminate their own realities where they are scum by using their NAs against potential scum allies. SO I guess the way to make the scum be who we want is to organise ourselves to isolate two players into being forced into it by each putting in a NA to kill everyone else, hopefully before they collapse their own scum realities.

Doesn't seem realistic, as no one is going to let us choreograph their own destruction.

Ok, maybe I am wrong in my assessment as it moves from day three to four, the amount of realities would increase on the players that we paired together. Ok, I got you and worth a try. That second part makes much more sense as we have at least one player linked to an alt. I am standing with action versus these night votes, after reviewing the graph in more detail with absolute certainty.

....what?

[Korabas]

Eloth, on 06 November 2014 - 08:23 PM, said:

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 07:50 PM, said:

Serc, on 06 November 2014 - 07:44 PM, said:

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 07:40 PM, said:

We definitely need to pool from what I have seen from day two to three. Time for a game plan, what we need to do is the opposite of what you think you would normally do. We need to manipulate the game in manner where we create players four and another lower percentage town as scum.If you review the realities where Eloth, player four, is scum it is down to 32 of the remaining realities. Sorry Eloth! This would get us closer to the final reality that anything, anyone has suggested. Ideas on how to get this accomplished?

Well Eloths probability of being scum increase as other players eliminate their own realities where they are scum by using their NAs against potential scum allies. SO I guess the way to make the scum be who we want is to organise ourselves to isolate two players into being forced into it by each putting in a NA to kill everyone else, hopefully before they collapse their own scum realities.

Doesn't seem realistic, as no one is going to let us choreograph their own destruction.

Ok, maybe I am wrong in my assessment as it moves from day three to four, the amount of realities would increase on the players that we paired together. Ok, I got you and worth a try. That second part makes much more sense as we have at least one player linked to an alt. I am standing with action versus these night votes, after reviewing the graph in more detail with absolute certainty.

....what?

Eloth, thank you for volunteering your player number, your needs will serve the town's best interest as martyr. Just go with the flow, Serc and I got this figured out. Except that whole collapsing wave function part which will shift realities, probably violently, as we move toward endgame. It's at least a plan versus keep voting night.

[Galayn Lord]

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 08:56 PM, said:

Just go with the flow, Serc and I got this figured out. Except that whole collapsing wave function part which will shift realities, probably violently, as we move toward endgame. It's at least a plan versus keep voting night.

You make me nervous. For now, I'm still going with the low poster though.

Vote Omtose

[Galayn Lord]

The problem with playing loosely with the percentages is that it is an excellent way to go broke.

Let's go back to my Day 13 test game. I just lynched EM. 86% good, 13% evil. He collapsed into the ScumA. Game over.

Instead of trying to force somebody to scum, we should be focusing on getting some town to 100% good. Sacrificing Eloth will most likely push others into higher scum percentages. Do you really want a situation with 3 or 4 50/50 ratios?

[Korabas]

Galayn Lord, on 06 November 2014 - 09:18 PM, said:

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 08:56 PM, said:

Just go with the flow, Serc and I got this figured out. Except that whole collapsing wave function part which will shift realities, probably violently, as we move toward endgame. It's at least a plan versus keep voting night.

You make me nervous. For now, I'm still going with the low poster though.

Vote Omtose

Galayn, when you brought up the collapsing functions that can occur correct? I have been trying to determine if that can happen if we lynch and made that assumption with what you posted earlier in the thread. I have a feeling if we wait too many nights, we just end of cannibalizing ourselves and not have enough people alive with what Kalse pointed out with the vote totals. That is where I am going with this information and the day to day graph.

[Eloth]

Galayn Lord, on 06 November 2014 - 09:18 PM, said:

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 08:56 PM, said:

Just go with the flow, Serc and I got this figured out. Except that whole collapsing wave function part which will shift realities, probably violently, as we move toward endgame. It's at least a plan versus keep voting night.

You make me nervous. For now, I'm still going with the low poster though.

Vote Omtose

Yup.... I think I will play no part in their weird dragon secs cult thank you very much. I will be changing my night actions right after I drop this vote.

vote omtose

[Korabas]

Galayn Lord, on 06 November 2014 - 09:38 PM, said:

The problem with playing loosely with the percentages is that it is an excellent way to go broke.

Let's go back to my Day 13 test game. I just lynched EM. 86% good, 13% evil. He collapsed into the ScumA. Game over.

Instead of trying to force somebody to scum, we should be focusing on getting some town to 100% good. Sacrificing Eloth will most likely push others into higher scum percentages. Do you really want a situation with 3 or 4 50/50 ratios?

Ok, I can get on board with this plan as we can also do that as it's just the reverse of what I am arguing for, but how does this occur Galayn?

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 3. 1 day, 6 hours and 14 minutes left.
Players aktive: Alkend, Ampelas, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Meanas, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Telas
6 votes needed for a lynch

1 vote for Night (Meanas)
1 vote for Kalse (Ampelas)
2 votes for Omtose ( GL, Eloth)

[Serc]

Eloth, on 06 November 2014 - 08:23 PM, said:

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 07:50 PM, said:

Serc, on 06 November 2014 - 07:44 PM, said:

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 07:40 PM, said:

We definitely need to pool from what I have seen from day two to three. Time for a game plan, what we need to do is the opposite of what you think you would normally do. We need to manipulate the game in manner where we create players four and another lower percentage town as scum.If you review the realities where Eloth, player four, is scum it is down to 32 of the remaining realities. Sorry Eloth! This would get us closer to the final reality that anything, anyone has suggested. Ideas on how to get this accomplished?

Well Eloths probability of being scum increase as other players eliminate their own realities where they are scum by using their NAs against potential scum allies. SO I guess the way to make the scum be who we want is to organise ourselves to isolate two players into being forced into it by each putting in a NA to kill everyone else, hopefully before they collapse their own scum realities.

Doesn't seem realistic, as no one is going to let us choreograph their own destruction.

Ok, maybe I am wrong in my assessment as it moves from day three to four, the amount of realities would increase on the players that we paired together. Ok, I got you and worth a try. That second part makes much more sense as we have at least one player linked to an alt. I am standing with action versus these night votes, after reviewing the graph in more detail with absolute certainty.

....what?

I have no fuckin' clue what Korabas was trying to say there either. Korabas can you please explain that again for us?

Korabas in my post I was pointing out how we couldn't do what you wanted to do to make Eloth scum as it would take longer (and be almost impossible to coordinate anyway) for us to collapse all other Eloth = town realities than it would be for eloth to collapse his own scum realities.

[Galayn Lord]

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 09:44 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 06 November 2014 - 09:38 PM, said:

The problem with playing loosely with the percentages is that it is an excellent way to go broke.

Let's go back to my Day 13 test game. I just lynched EM. 86% good, 13% evil. He collapsed into the ScumA. Game over.

Instead of trying to force somebody to scum, we should be focusing on getting some town to 100% good. Sacrificing Eloth will most likely push others into higher scum percentages. Do you really want a situation with 3 or 4 50/50 ratios?

Ok, I can get on board with this plan as we can also do that as it's just the reverse of what I am arguing for, but how does this occur Galayn?

I'm not certain. That's why I want a lynch. To see who changes. With my test game I didn't do a lynch until day 8 or so because I was trying to determine what would happen w/o lynches. When that lynch occurred, 3 people shot to 100% town. The remaining ratios stayed in the 70/30 range. It also eliminated 2 others from being candidates for finder.

The crux here is do we trust Eloth's claim to be player 4? I see no reason for him to lie. And can't see why anyone else would counter-claim. I'm tempted to say let's lynch Omtose (simply because he's low poster) and everyone else target the same person. Not Eloth.

What would be really cool is if we could get the finder isolated, but that's even less likely than isolating scum. My test game ended with 2 realities based on a 50/50 split for finder.

Kalse, you claim to have me narrowed to 3 players. Why do you think I'm one of those?

[Galayn Lord]

BTW, for those not playing with the software: collapse is what it calls the mechanism when a player becomes 100% something. All realities wherein that person is anything else 'collapse' and disappear.

[Galayn Lord]

Once we have 3 or 4 100% town, then we go back to playing mafia. Looking for the ones who aren't 100% town by analyzing the devious, betraying, lying, cunning, dissembling, etc.

[Telas]

I kinda feel like playing with the software defeats the purpose of this game a bit. Whats the program called anyway?

I guess that is what we have to do then. Sacrifice some folk and see what happens. Its kinda wierd to single someone out since we dont really have anything to go by.

My find were:

Gaylord - Town

Alkend - Town

Eloth - Town

[Serc]

Telas, on 06 November 2014 - 10:33 PM, said:

I kinda feel like playing with the software defeats the purpose of this game a bit. Whats the program called anyway?

I guess that is what we have to do then. Sacrifice some folk and see what happens. Its kinda wierd to single someone out since we dont really have anything to go by.

My find were:

Gaylord - Town

Alkend - Town

Eloth - Town

Us understanding how the mechanics work isn't going to make it any easier to actually find and lynch the scum. It just saves PS a lot of time and effort in having to explain what happens every time someone gets confused.

http://my.fit.edu/~wellsm2011/qwolf/

That's the link for the program PS is using

[Ruse]

Telas, on 06 November 2014 - 10:33 PM, said:

I kinda feel like playing with the software defeats the purpose of this game a bit. Whats the program called anyway?

I guess that is what we have to do then. Sacrifice some folk and see what happens. Its kinda wierd to single someone out since we dont really have anything to go by.

My find were:

Gaylord - Town

Alkend - Town

Eloth - Town

To the bolded part: Which is why I say we should single them out in actions, not lynches. Because the actions are less likely to be immediately fatal to the one being targetted at this stage (still a risk, I guess, but not certain as with a lynch).


To belabour the point some more, as town, we must must must must must must try to use the additional info we have - namely, the percentage counts and player numbers. We use those by finding out which number might correspond to which player. I still think that can be done by focusing actions on one or two players at night and seeing which player number is consequently affected the most.

[Galayn Lord]

Ok, I just lost my desire to lynch the low poster.

Remove Vote

Vote Ruse

[Galayn Lord]

The only thing voting night has gotten us is decreasing life ratios and no particularly notable differences in scum/town ratios.

[Ruse]

Here is a handy table-like thing to illustrate how much things changed from day 2 to day 3. As you can see, few major changes, lots of little changes. I think this illustrates actions being all over the place.

Player: Alive: Towniness
1: -14 +2
2: -5 0
3: -10 0
4: -2 -1
5: -11 +4
6: -6 -5
7: -4 +1
8: -12 +3
9: 0 -2
10: -11 -2
11: -6 -5
12: -6 +3


What's also interesting is how many people's towniness actually improved slightly. Only players 6 and 11 dropped noticeably in towniness.

[Korabas]

Ruse, on 06 November 2014 - 10:40 PM, said:

Telas, on 06 November 2014 - 10:33 PM, said:

I kinda feel like playing with the software defeats the purpose of this game a bit. Whats the program called anyway?

I guess that is what we have to do then. Sacrifice some folk and see what happens. Its kinda wierd to single someone out since we dont really have anything to go by.

My find were:

Gaylord - Town

Alkend - Town

Eloth - Town

To the bolded part: Which is why I say we should single them out in actions, not lynches. Because the actions are less likely to be immediately fatal to the one being targetted at this stage (still a risk, I guess, but not certain as with a lynch).


To belabour the point some more, as town, we must must must must must must try to use the additional info we have - namely, the percentage counts and player numbers. We use those by finding out which number might correspond to which player. I still think that can be done by focusing actions on one or two players at night and seeing which player number is consequently affected the most.

What? No, this exactly where I was trying to explain earlier in the mechanics, day to day. Voting night will just have us cannibalizing ourselves.


Vote Ruse