[Korabas]

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 03:59 PM, said:

Merrid, on 06 November 2014 - 03:52 PM, said:

I should have stayed on the sidelines. I just don't have time for this game. But I'll try and put some effort into is. I want to know if I'm a finder. Kalse came up scum for me. I say let's lynch him. If he turns up town then we can safely say I'm not the finder. I say everyone puts their find on me tonight and that should determine my alignment and probably help determine who the real finder actually is.

vote Kalse

I believe this will be answered with the next % update form PS.

Allow me to explain, given that you haven't grasped probabilities - yes, I have a % chance of being scum. So. Do. You. A scum result is not indicative of someone being scum. You are extremely unlikely to be finder, less likely than I am of being scum (1/13 vs 2/13)

Follow the link to the software PS is using. Set up a game of 13, input all that has happened so far. Up till now no-one has a good chance of being scum. Look in the Events tab after each Night. See how many in your game are getting scum find results. Now look at the Players tab. No-one has a set role.

Kalse, I have been saying this for the last two days, we are on the right track on reduction on realities as we are working together to figure the best way to accomplish this task. The best thing we can do if we do decide to lynch is go after the one that is highest scum and alive ratio, as this would reduce the most amount of realities. I see a problem with voting night after closer examination. As a note lets look at player four on day two he was alive in 317 realities of the 576, but is now only alive in 191 of 361 on day three. As town we have to be very careful, because if we don't find the right person as we approach that final reality, many people are going to be dead when we all get to the closest and final reality. I hope you all make a note of that, because even if your number of percentage states you are 75% alive, you very well could be dead if we continue the current path as the number of realities diminish. Tell me if I am completely off base on this situation if we co-ordinate efforts more cleanly we may be able to reduce the amount of town death on the final day. After stumbling upon this realization, going for night might not be the best goal as it gives everyone involved who are still scum in their realities more opportunity to kill you in the final reality we land on. Alternatively, more co-ordination may be advised to if we can get everyone on board.

[Ampelas]

Merrid, on 06 November 2014 - 03:52 PM, said:

I should have stayed on the sidelines. I just don't have time for this game. But I'll try and put some effort into is. I want to know if I'm a finder. Kalse came up scum for me. I say let's lynch him. If he turns up town then we can safely say I'm not the finder. I say everyone puts their find on me tonight and that should determine my alignment and probably help determine who the real finder actually is.

vote Kalse

Interesting!

[Merrid]

Meanas, on 06 November 2014 - 04:33 PM, said:

I did a find on Omtose and he came back town.



I see no reason to not vote night again. With each night vote we are dropping a lot of realities and still keeping town intact. Since there are now 4 players who are at < 20% chance of scum anyone who gets a scum find result should definitely announce it to the thread. That way as the realities are narrowed down we can lynch the people who have the greatest chance of being scum.

I also did omtose last night and he came back as town for me as well.

[Kalse]

GL, which of Players 6, 10 and 11 are you? You're one of the three.

[Ampelas]

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 04:39 PM, said:

Meanas, on 06 November 2014 - 04:33 PM, said:

I did a find on Omtose and he came back town.



I see no reason to not vote night again. With each night vote we are dropping a lot of realities and still keeping town intact. Since there are now 4 players who are at < 20% chance of scum anyone who gets a scum find result should definitely announce it to the thread. That way as the realities are narrowed down we can lynch the people who have the greatest chance of being scum.

I have a scum result for GL the Night just gone.

Also Merrid, note that Eloth also did a Find on me N1, returning town. As did my own find on me.

I had a town result for GL the night just gone.

[Kalse]

Ampelas, on 06 November 2014 - 04:59 PM, said:

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 04:39 PM, said:

Meanas, on 06 November 2014 - 04:33 PM, said:

I did a find on Omtose and he came back town.



I see no reason to not vote night again. With each night vote we are dropping a lot of realities and still keeping town intact. Since there are now 4 players who are at < 20% chance of scum anyone who gets a scum find result should definitely announce it to the thread. That way as the realities are narrowed down we can lynch the people who have the greatest chance of being scum.

I have a scum result for GL the Night just gone.

Also Merrid, note that Eloth also did a Find on me N1, returning town. As did my own find on me.

I had a town result for GL the night just gone.

Who have your other two Finds been on?

[Kalse]

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 04:59 PM, said:

GL, which of Players 6, 10 and 11 are you? You're one of the three.

Sorry, 6, 11 and 12

[Ampelas]

Omtose find of Kalse being scum, Kalse of GL being scum and mine of GL being town and Eloth also finding GL town makes me want to vote Kalse.

Vote Kalse

[Kalse]

And I'm out for a time.

[Merrid]

This game is weird. Everyone is acting like town as we have no idea who is scum even scum. And Kalse yes I understand a little bit about probabilities but if we lynch someone that multiple people put finds on where some get one result and some get the other. Once we get the CF where we know 100% the alignment we get a lot more clarity.

[Ampelas]

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 05:01 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 06 November 2014 - 04:59 PM, said:

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 04:39 PM, said:

Meanas, on 06 November 2014 - 04:33 PM, said:

I did a find on Omtose and he came back town.



I see no reason to not vote night again. With each night vote we are dropping a lot of realities and still keeping town intact. Since there are now 4 players who are at < 20% chance of scum anyone who gets a scum find result should definitely announce it to the thread. That way as the realities are narrowed down we can lynch the people who have the greatest chance of being scum.

I have a scum result for GL the Night just gone.

Also Merrid, note that Eloth also did a Find on me N1, returning town. As did my own find on me.

I had a town result for GL the night just gone.

Who have your other two Finds been on?

My answer to that question is in the thread already.

[Kalse]

Ampelas, on 06 November 2014 - 05:02 PM, said:

Omtose find of Kalse being scum, Kalse of GL being scum and mine of GL being town and Eloth also finding GL town makes me want to vote Kalse.

Vote Kalse

Eloth and Meanas found me town on N0. Eloth found me town N1. Merrid found me scum on N1.

You're an idiot.

[Meanas]

Ampelas, on 06 November 2014 - 05:02 PM, said:

Omtose find of Kalse being scum, Kalse of GL being scum and mine of GL being town and Eloth also finding GL town makes me want to vote Kalse.

Vote Kalse

Sigh...There is just so much wrong with your logic it is kind of awesome.


Right now if we lynch Kalse and he is player 11 we have only a 28% chance of lynching scum. I would rather lynch someone when there is a higher chance of getting a successful scum lynch.

[Ruse]

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 05:02 PM, said:

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 04:59 PM, said:

GL, which of Players 6, 10 and 11 are you? You're one of the three.

Sorry, 6, 11 and 12

How do you figure this?

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 3. 1 day, 10 hours and 57 minutes left.
Players aktive: Alkend, Ampelas, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Meanas, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Telas
6 votes needed for a lynch

1 vote for Night (Meanas)
1 vote for Kalse (Ampelas)

[Korabas]

You would need to do this for scum realities, so as we approach the final reality all realities don't intersect perfect. Think of it as one big overlapping graph. So as the days change and realities decrease you should be able to see the changes better with in put in these terms.

Realities players are actually alive in: Scum Realities

Player 1-285: 54
Player 2-310 :54
Player 3-324: 50
Player 4-191: 32
Player 5-241: 46
Player 6-340: 83
Player 7-314:50
Player 8-314: 50
Player 9-274: 79
Player 10-354: 62
Player 11-340:101
Player 12-340: 72
Player 13-0:0

Realties total: 361.

[Galayn Lord]

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 04:59 PM, said:

GL, which of Players 6, 10 and 11 are you? You're one of the three.

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 05:02 PM, said:

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 04:59 PM, said:

GL, which of Players 6, 10 and 11 are you? You're one of the three.

Sorry, 6, 11 and 12

How do you come to that conclusion and why should I answer?

[Eloth]

Are we going to go to night, or are we going to lynch?

Are we going try and pool our night actions or not?

[Korabas]

We definitely need to pool from what I have seen from day two to three. Time for a game plan, what we need to do is the opposite of what you think you would normally do. We need to manipulate the game in manner where we create players four and another lower percentage town as scum.If you review the realities where Eloth, player four, is scum it is down to 32 of the remaining realities. Sorry Eloth! This would get us closer to the final reality that anything, anyone has suggested. Ideas on how to get this accomplished?

[Serc]

Korabas, on 06 November 2014 - 07:40 PM, said:

We definitely need to pool from what I have seen from day two to three. Time for a game plan, what we need to do is the opposite of what you think you would normally do. We need to manipulate the game in manner where we create players four and another lower percentage town as scum.If you review the realities where Eloth, player four, is scum it is down to 32 of the remaining realities. Sorry Eloth! This would get us closer to the final reality that anything, anyone has suggested. Ideas on how to get this accomplished?

Well Eloths probability of being scum increase as other players eliminate their own realities where they are scum by using their NAs against potential scum allies. SO I guess the way to make the scum be who we want is to organise ourselves to isolate two players into being forced into it by each putting in a NA to kill everyone else, hopefully before they collapse their own scum realities.

Doesn't seem realistic, as no one is going to let us choreograph their own destruction.