[Ryadd Eleis]

Ghennan, on 05 August 2014 - 02:36 PM, said:

Err, what?

Bendal's response when Iparth first outlined his suspicion of me.

Bendal Home, on 01 August 2014 - 03:21 PM, said:

Likely my final post before the weekend. Looks a bit dead in here.

There is nothing quite like the old fashion 'too smooth' argument. Brings back some good times....

Trying to pour fuel onto the fire, so to speak, by commenting on the 'case'.

[Iparth Erule]

Ryadd Eleis, on 05 August 2014 - 02:29 PM, said:

I am not too lazy - I am simply not bothered about defending myself against your accusation, which itself is lazy.

This is complete and utter horseshit. If you mean I didn't put together a carefully crafted quote filled case where I examined whether or not you stayed in first person and used the accusative case correctly, then yes, I am "lazy".

But the truth is you can't make fun of my ability to look for slips, because people just don't fucking make slips like that. When town catches scum it's invariably based on things they've said, when they've said them, and HOW THEY RELATE to people who have already been (99% of the time) found accidentally to be scum.

Like it or not, the people who play mafia on this forum aren't idiots, and are very good at concealing what they are on thread. IF cases are so fucking important to finding scum, then where are YOUR cases? Pot-Kettle-Black.

[Iparth Erule]

Ryadd Eleis, on 05 August 2014 - 02:49 PM, said:

Ghennan, on 05 August 2014 - 02:36 PM, said:

Err, what?

Bendal's response when Iparth first outlined his suspicion of me.

Bendal Home, on 01 August 2014 - 03:21 PM, said:

Likely my final post before the weekend. Looks a bit dead in here.

There is nothing quite like the old fashion 'too smooth' argument. Brings back some good times....

Trying to pour fuel onto the fire, so to speak, by commenting on the 'case'.

And it needs to be pointed out that BH's comment on my case gets my actual point wrong. I wasn't accusing RE of being smooth.

[Prazec Goul]

Ryadd Eleis, on 05 August 2014 - 12:20 AM, said:

Right, so I think that Aranatha is town. Reasoning is that I don't think a guard/shield would have an ability which would counter the intentions of their scum leader.


Tennes is technically incorrect that the chances of Ghennan being a guard/shield are 50%, as I believe PS has stated that it is possible (though presumably not probable) for a regular gladiator to also win against a champion. However, the likelihood does seem to be that Ghennan is either a champion themselves or one of the guard/shields.

If we think of these guards as symps, as Skintick wisely urged, then it has to be said that Ghennan has been acting quite sympish. Loud, directing attention, keeping much of the focus on mechanics and speculation as to scum moves, continuing to pour suspicion on PIs including openly urging a Skintick death (right up to asking Skin to commit suicide if I remember correctly) 'for the good of town'.

Ghennan is my top choice right now, but I would need to read over his posts again tomorrow to cement it. But for now,

Vote Ghennan

Lazy ish vote here, following Tennes but now after the reveal he is actually putting more effort into his game. This is why I wanted to leave it another day or so before doing my analysis because Iparth/Ryadd/Merrid have all done scummy things, or definitely do not look like stand up town. Eldat and Tennes have both come across as looking town but Tennes has Merrid defending him, and a bit of wierd play that I highlighted earlier. He also has the spat with Ghennan and immediately votes for Ghennan straight off the bat, possibly knowing that he needs to be lynched if you cannot be beat in the arena. So Tennes is my top choice but my second choice is too obscure.

[Ryadd Eleis]

Eldat Pressen. From what I've read, Eldat seems town to me. They've been consistent in their posting and beliefs, and backed up their suspicions with votes, simultaneously not being afraid to disagree with things they don't think are right.


The first post is actually the one which is also the most 'suspicious'. Eldat was the first to respond to the question of whether shields can fight. One could argue that they might have been so quick to know as it may also be explained in their role PM...

Eldat Pressen, on 28 July 2014 - 07:42 PM, said:

Kessobahn, on 28 July 2014 - 07:28 PM, said:

So, can the loyals be called to fight in the arena? If not, then we have a good way of PI'ing people.

It was explained in the sign up thread that they can be sent a small finite amount of times

Eldat was against the suspicion of a shield being one of the first two fight candidates. They were correct, as we now know. A player on good form, or someone with more knowledge?

Eldat Pressen, on 29 July 2014 - 10:55 AM, said:

Ok Ive read up. I asked PS about lynching the arena candidates and yes Bendal will get to choose a new contender. But especially this early why would Bendal put one of his guards in a fight? D1 lynch is pretty much always a townie. Not a given I know but statistically its probably going to happen. If I were him I would throw 2 town in the arena and be happy with my chances that there will be a town lynch, getting a nice little twofer. This logic wont hold up all day but for D1 especially I think its sound.

I've included the post below because it is the same line of thinking I myself had expressed earlier, so that immediately warms me to them

Eldat Pressen, on 29 July 2014 - 04:02 PM, said:

Ryadd Eleis, on 29 July 2014 - 04:00 PM, said:

Vote Denesmet

Of course Den's lynch also means we're lining up one of ourselves to fight Skintick

It could be advantageous if the fight is delayed to just agree not to fight against him which would leave a known townie around. Then when a guard finally went up against him we would know who it was. There are some big ifs in there, but do you see any holes?

Wants to keep focus off fights, at least until later. Argues for thread interaction analysis. Agrees with Prazec. All quite sensible.

Eldat Pressen, on 30 July 2014 - 11:21 AM, said:

Back and I strongly agree with this.

Prazec Goul, on 30 July 2014 - 08:11 AM, said:

We have to think how a guard would want to play this game, they are not going to want to stand out, they are going to want to stay off everyone's radar as much as possible. Easy to get into the later stages of the game by not making any waves, or venturing any strong opinions.

The game as stated before is just and M&P with some added mechanics. The fight will give us some info, but I really dont think the results of who fought and how many times will really become useful until later in the game. For now the best bet is keep an eye on them, but use on thread interactions for the basis of most of our lynch candidates. Day 1 theorizing was fine because it was D1 and there is never really anything there anyway. Turns out Ghennan was wrong, Oh well, we have kept Skin in the game and can now be pretty damn sure he is town.

Suspects Merrid.

Eldat Pressen, on 30 July 2014 - 11:31 AM, said:

Ok Caught up. Fucking Anomandaris is annoyingly ignorant of what is going on around him, doesnt really make him scum and unfortunately I have to agree with him that Merrid looks scummy at the moment as well. I really didnt like the Ultama vote and post flurry at the end as already stated. As for Shields knowing each other, I would simply assume the worst for the moment and figure that they do.

And then Tennes.

Eldat Pressen, on 30 July 2014 - 01:19 PM, said:

I actually want to throw Tennes out there as well. looking back through the thread his contributions have been pretty much non-existant. And yet from the posted post counts he is right there in the middle. So lets get something more on thread.

Vote Tennes

More suspicions of Merrid.

Eldat Pressen, on 30 July 2014 - 01:33 PM, said:

Just some more thoughts on Merrid at the moment. When he finally posts anything he is making these giant post walls consisting of questions that have already been answered, thoughts that are completely unhelpful and as stated general summations, which everybody should be keeping track of themselves. He isnt really throwing anything of value out and certainly seems to be going out of his way to not include anybody's name into fitting with how he sees the game to be going

And again attacks Tennes.

Eldat Pressen, on 31 July 2014 - 01:36 AM, said:

Tennes, on 30 July 2014 - 09:37 PM, said:

I participated in the day1 talk, laid out my ideas and asked questions. Sorry I wasn't being a dick to everyone. Seriously, what the heck do you count as contribution?


So, what I think right now is that EP sucks. Anomander is a pompous ass with a good catch regarding Merrid and sucky reading comprehension. Prazec Gouls idea of how the shields would play is stupid, because of not making any waves would have led to not getting lynched, scum would have had the perfect strategy to play in every M&P game.
I also don't think the case on Ultama has much merit, it's built on him posting a lot in the middle of a day, isn't it?
The best lynch candidate right now is Merrid in my opinion.
Also, Crixus did have a game postponed during the tv series so ... (Skintick)

I will vote Merrid later in the day in absence of significant change.

I was going to do a giant fucking annoying quote wall of your D1 but it was a pain in the ass and yall can do your own damn looking up. Your D1 consists of calling people stupid and adding nothing to the conversation. Yes you had one or two actual original thoughts, but in the end you just rolled with the on thread argument and disappeared again. No added thoughts. Im still a bit torn between you and Kesso actually, but you really didnt do yourself any favors with this response. Ultama posting mid day?? Read the thread you might be able to puzzle out why Im questioning that on your own.

Eldat's interaction with Bendal Home amounts to Bendal forcing them to do some Breaking Bad role-play.

Eldat has shown agreement with Prazec Goul, and disagreement with Tennes and Merrid.

That makes Anomandaris, Eldat, and Prazec Goul most recently who have all pushed a Tennes-Merrid connection.

[Prazec Goul]

Ryadd is doing his best here to pull attention away from Tennes. Even going as far as to mention BH somehow commenting on him. (when BH has not really mentioned any other cases)

[Ryadd Eleis]

Prazec Goul, on 05 August 2014 - 03:42 PM, said:

Ryadd is doing his best here to pull attention away from Tennes. Even going as far as to mention BH somehow commenting on him. (when BH has not really mentioned any other cases)

You're going to find it very odd when I eventually vote for Tennes in all likelihood after going through my analysis of the other potential suspects (including Merrid and Tennes) Next up, Iparth.

Also, your 'even going so far' comment makes no sense. That was in response to Iparth, and quoted as a defense of myself. Nothing at all to do with Tennes.

[Ryadd Eleis]

Prazec Goul, on 05 August 2014 - 03:42 PM, said:

Ryadd is doing his best here to pull attention away from Tennes. Even going as far as to mention BH somehow commenting on him. (when BH has not really mentioned any other cases)

In addition, I have just highlighted in the analysis of Eldat how many people are looking at a Tennes-Merrid connection. How is that pulling attention away from Tennes? Your comment makes even less sense.

[Prazec Goul]

Ryadd Eleis, on 05 August 2014 - 03:46 PM, said:

Prazec Goul, on 05 August 2014 - 03:42 PM, said:

Ryadd is doing his best here to pull attention away from Tennes. Even going as far as to mention BH somehow commenting on him. (when BH has not really mentioned any other cases)

In addition, I have just highlighted in the analysis of Eldat how many people are looking at a Tennes-Merrid connection. How is that pulling attention away from Tennes? Your comment makes even less sense.

It's crazy how you went from a lazy vote on Ghennan, to this style of play today. Something seems off about your manner. Yet it is not enough to pull me away from Tennes.

[Ryadd Eleis]

Prazec Goul, on 05 August 2014 - 03:52 PM, said:

Ryadd Eleis, on 05 August 2014 - 03:46 PM, said:

Prazec Goul, on 05 August 2014 - 03:42 PM, said:

Ryadd is doing his best here to pull attention away from Tennes. Even going as far as to mention BH somehow commenting on him. (when BH has not really mentioned any other cases)

In addition, I have just highlighted in the analysis of Eldat how many people are looking at a Tennes-Merrid connection. How is that pulling attention away from Tennes? Your comment makes even less sense.

It's crazy how you went from a lazy vote on Ghennan, to this style of play today. Something seems off about your manner. Yet it is not enough to pull me away from Tennes.

It's not crazy - it's INSANE!!!

Or, you know, it was just what I felt was the right choice at the time. Why was the vote lazy? Ghennan was getting serious attention for justified reasons - beat a champion, symp-like play, etc. But a Ghennan reveal without a counterclaim was always going to make me remove my vote. My style of play is exactly like it was early in the game - before I had to go AWOL over most of Thursday, all of Friday, and the weekend.

[Prazec Goul]

Ryadd Eleis, on 05 August 2014 - 03:59 PM, said:

Prazec Goul, on 05 August 2014 - 03:52 PM, said:

Ryadd Eleis, on 05 August 2014 - 03:46 PM, said:

Prazec Goul, on 05 August 2014 - 03:42 PM, said:

Ryadd is doing his best here to pull attention away from Tennes. Even going as far as to mention BH somehow commenting on him. (when BH has not really mentioned any other cases)

In addition, I have just highlighted in the analysis of Eldat how many people are looking at a Tennes-Merrid connection. How is that pulling attention away from Tennes? Your comment makes even less sense.

It's crazy how you went from a lazy vote on Ghennan, to this style of play today. Something seems off about your manner. Yet it is not enough to pull me away from Tennes.

It's not crazy - it's INSANE!!!

Or, you know, it was just what I felt was the right choice at the time. Why was the vote lazy? Ghennan was getting serious attention for justified reasons - beat a champion, symp-like play, etc. But a Ghennan reveal without a counterclaim was always going to make me remove my vote. My style of play is exactly like it was early in the game - before I had to go AWOL over most of Thursday, all of Friday, and the weekend.

It was lazy because it just followed along what tennes had to say. You did none of your own analysing. It took me a while to come up with the decision that Ghennan was most probably town, based off thinking like BH, yet instead of thinking about it for yourself, you just tagged along.


The main question I put to you on your vote for Ghennan pre-reveal;

Do you think BH would risk a shield against a known roled town?

[Ryadd Eleis]

Prazec Goul, on 05 August 2014 - 04:03 PM, said:

It was lazy because it just followed along what tennes had to say. You did none of your own analysing. It took me a while to come up with the decision that Ghennan was most probably town, based off thinking like BH, yet instead of thinking about it for yourself, you just tagged along.


The main question I put to you on your vote for Ghennan pre-reveal;

Do you think BH would risk a shield against a known roled town?

Oh lord, are we seriously going over this ground again?

Your first comment - my vote was based on my feelings from reading the thread and from Ghennan's most recent arguements with Tennes, where I felt that Ghennan came off looking worst. So sue me. Simply because I did not type up a wall of quotes does not make it lazy. I felt it was unecessary because I had explained sufficiently well (if I do say so myself) my reason for voting Ghennan at that time.

This is all moot of course. If we do end up lynching Tennes and he is a shield, then it would make sense to lynch either myself or Merrid next as their most obvious defenders. As it would make sense, I would not fight my own lynch, though I would work in the time I'd have left to set out who seems Tennes' likeliest partner should they turn out to be a shield in this scenario.

And to answer your actual question - obviously I do, because otherwise I would not have voted for Ghennan. It's a stupid question because you already know that answer. Furthermore, it is even more stupid to ask because I was not thinking about Bendal's intentions anyway before voting. It is not my primary job, nor any town's unless they be a healer, to second-guess what a killer scum might thinking with their NK intentions. The variables are endless and we simply end up thinking ourselves in circles, whether we're right or wrong.

As has been pointed out already on the thread ad nauseam.


Edit: Removed 'guard or', from 'unless they be a [guard or] healer', as in fact it's not the guard's role either.

This post has been edited by Ryadd Eleis: 05 August 2014 - 04:34 PM

[Ryadd Eleis]

Iparth Erule.

Sets out their “I’m not looking for slips” modus operandi early on

Iparth Erule, on 29 July 2014 - 05:54 AM, said:

So, my primary observation is apparently Rule A5 is not going to be followed in this game.

Secondary observation is I find myself (at least initially) as having little to no interest in looking for speculation-as-someone-having-infinately-more-information (SASHIMI) type posts. That shit bores me to tears. I'm actually more interested in voting for people who appear to be interested in it, because I don't give a flying hammerpants fart.

Agrees with the suspicion of Bendal putting in a shield day 1, first votes Skintick and then after Skin’s reveal votes Denesmet.

Iparth Erule, on 29 July 2014 - 10:40 PM, said:

I apologize for my very short posts and limited presence. I hope to have more time after today. This is my only posting window before timeout, and I still am fine with the logic of putting a guard in the arena. Giving Skintick a pass for the moment, and will lay thehammer down on the other contestant.
Vote Denesmet

Iparth was silenced by Bendal at one point and had to post in pictures, which was the time they chose to give opinions on Merrid, Tennes, and Ghennan (a zombie, a hider, and a prancing unicorn man, respectively.

They then voted for Tennes.
The next day they backed off their suspicion of Tennes, and cast an aspersion on Merrid. Beginnings of their suspicion of me, too.

Iparth Erule, on 31 July 2014 - 08:36 AM, said:

Merrid,
Why would one shield know who the other one was, AND assume that they didn't have the same information so they felt they had to signal?
Anyways, I like the contributions Kesso and Tennes have made today, so I'm not as keen on voting in that direction.
I need to do a re-read again. My initial re-read I latched onto this interesting post by Ryadd and mixed them with Eldat, so my concentration was mainly on their posts. Back to the drawing board.

Iparth’s first vote on me. The case almost reads like a compliment in my eyes, so I’ll choose to take it as such. I have an awesome posting style, thank you.
More seriously, it’s interesting to note that Iparth backs away from a Tennes vote in much the same way I have done.

Iparth Erule, on 01 August 2014 - 12:01 PM, said:

Ok, I'm going to go in a completely different direction.
As I was going through, I was focusing on posting style, more so than what was being said.
Ryadd Eleis' posting is so carefully measured, almost crafted, that I can't believe it's real. They rarely have several posts in a row, but seem to allow the conversation develop around their posts before posting again. The types of posts they do are varied (some long quotes with comments, some single liners, some medium sized speculation posts).
Their play just appears carefully sculpted. But don't take my word for it, go through their posts in context (which is why I'm not specifically quoting here), and tell me it doesn't look that way to you.
This is that black hole type poster that is easy to ignore.
Therefore,
Vote Ryadd Eleis

But after Ghennen’s reveal we have here essentially the same trio that most seem to be leaning towards.

Iparth Erule, on 05 August 2014 - 01:07 PM, said:

Ghennen has been waiting all game to reveal that.

I think Tennes is a decent choice, as well as Merrid and my personal Fave Rave Ryadd (who never even bothered to address my vote on him).

But then also casts suspicion on Eldat. A suspicion which to my mind results from not reading the thread, which is ironically what Iparth bangs on about, looking at interaction and reaction, but has failed to do so themselves in this instance before posting something. Well, either that, or they’re casting suspicion here for more diabolical reasons.

Iparth Erule, on 05 August 2014 - 02:25 PM, said:

Eldat Pressen, on 05 August 2014 - 02:06 PM, said:

Comp at booted me off and won't let me back. @PG no quotes on phone but I think your analysis is very good. Tennes has been #1 on my list for a couple days now. Merrid is another top contender. I would throw Ryadd in there for the swing away from Tennes on day he was up for lynch. Not supposed to be on phone at work so....
Vote Tennes

I think this is one or the other of two things:
a) lazy tagging on
or
pushing tennes as an easy train on a townie to direct away from actual shields
I am not sure where i stand on Tennes, but this post genuinely bothers me. At one point I believed Tennes could be scum, but the the way they have conducted themselves on thread since Day 2 has led me to think otherwise.

To conclude, I’m actually surprised by how few posts Iparth has. I had it in my head that they’ve been way more active than they actually have. The sole real contribution is the suspicion of myself. Other than that, there’s really not much to talk about. Iparth follows the crowd. Or isn’t even around to do that much.
Undecided here, but there are probably better targets for today.

[Tennes]

I'm here and read up.
I want to point out a few things before I start defending against "cases" and accusations.
Three person are voting me.
I did a case on Prazec Goul and he is voting me.
I pointed out the statistical probability of Ghennan being a shield and he voted me.
Eldat Pressen has had a problem with me since day2, in which both he and Anomander voted me. When I tried to talk to him about it, he did not provide reason for it.

Merrid defended me because he wanted to defend me, there is no reason to lynch me because of his actions. Let's see the chain of logic for that accusation to be correct.

Merrid must be a shield(Not proved)-->He must know the other shield(Not proved)-->He must believe the other shield has to survive under any conditions(WHY?) -->He must be stupid enough to defend the other shield so obviously that he will be the next one lynched after me, absolutely(Possible but not probable)

I will look for other things pointed out about my supposedly scummy play and answer to them.
I would like to point out that the main reason I was a lynch candidate on Day2 was the simple fact that I was on the road for a long time, and not able to post.

[Tennes]

Prazec Goul, on 05 August 2014 - 11:48 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 29 July 2014 - 03:03 PM, said:

It is Day 1. There are 10 hours 19 minutes remaining.


There are 14 Players left alive: Anomandaris, Aranatha, Bendal Home, Denesmet, Eldat Pressen, Ghennan, Iparth Erule, Kessobahn, Merrid, Prazec Goul, Ryadd Eleis, Skintick, Tennes, Ultama


2 votes Ghennan: Anomandaris, Skintick
1 votes Skintick: Ghennan
2 votes Denesmet: Prazec Goul, Kessobahn


Players not voted: Aranatha, Bendal Home, Denesmet, Eldat Pressen, Iparth Erule, Merrid, Ryadd Eleis, Tennes, Ultama

Tennes is the one that swings the vote away from Ghennan on day one onto one of the fighters.
What is the reason for you pointing that out?
I saw a brief interaction between them also on day one that smacked of distancing.
Either me and Ghennan are a lover town pair, or the above statement is also totally useless.
With my belief that Ghennan is on the town side of the fence, the spat between these two is more highlighted because Tennes actually votes away from Ghennan. Wanting to appease the masses?
What fucking masses? I had no reason to vote for Ghennan on day one while I had a good reason to vote for one of the fighters. Tell me what excuse I could have used to vote Ghenna? "I'm gonna vote him because he called me HOSTILE! what a great insult to my family honor!"
The reason I am looking here, is that (although I have not got up to it yet), Merrid's defense of Tennes is the most activity that Merrid has given us this game so far.
Then fucking lynch Merrid. It is far more probable that he is a shield trying to
1)Set up a townie
2)PI himself when I come up innocent.
Here is why I think Ghennan is roled town, he called it early. He wasn't to know that Skin was also roled town...

Ghennan, on 29 July 2014 - 04:04 PM, said:

Ryadd Eleis, on 29 July 2014 - 04:00 PM, said:

Vote Denesmet

Of course Den's lynch also means we're lining up one of ourselves to fight Skintick

Does anyone here not think they can take him?

He limits himself to RHYMING COUPLETS, for gods sake. How good do you think he is in a fight to the death? Pssh.

Bendal you great big sack of wrikled scrotes, put me in the fight with skin! I'll rip that bastard to shreds! GIVE ME GLORY! Then give me a scum CF from skin pls pls pls

Unless of course, this IS a signal to BH that his shield can take out Skin...

Now that the lynch is set in place (6 votes, two to go)

Merrid ups his post count.

What I find interesting is that Tennes disliked my dislike of Merrid, thought my point about him was invalid, yet Merrid also defends Tennes.
Your point was invalid, I pointed it out. Why the heck are accusing me of being scum because I read the thread and point out logical inconsistencies?
Back to Ghennan, can we see a shield saying this?

Ghennan, on 29 July 2014 - 09:01 PM, said:

I am going to sleep and won't be back until after time out, so I will say this before I go.

BENDAL HOME I'M CALLING YOU OUT!

Put me in the arena to face skintick you cowardly stain of a horses ass! Your mother spawned you by using an inventive method of stealing a used napkin! You impotent, weak willed, lazy eyed bastard!

PUT ME IN TO FACE HIM! I WILL TAKE DENESMETS PLACE, AND FUCKING MURDER YOUR SCUM SHIELD. BRING. IT. ON.

Although Merrid "hates the rush to lynch", he makes sure he is voting, and does not even give a reason...
That has nothing to do with me.

Merrid, on 29 July 2014 - 09:55 PM, said:

Back for a short time.

Ryadd Eleis, on 29 July 2014 - 08:29 PM, said:

Eldat Pressen, on 29 July 2014 - 08:10 PM, said:

Merrid, on 29 July 2014 - 07:29 PM, said:

Names his fighters early on - 6 hours 12min into game. Perhaps he has a time limit to choose the gladiators in? There's been no change to them so far either despite Denesmet being at L2 so I think BH is stuck once he names them. We could wait for the announcement then lynch one of his chosen ones to prevent the NK each night at the expense of BH picking the two targets.

This is a really good thought. I hadnt really thought about a time limit to his announcement and that would give us a bit of an advantage to work things out.

No it isn't. It's already been stated that Bendal can name a replacement should one of his choices be lynched - as will happen if Denesmet is lynched today.

Wilful blindness there Ryadd? Underlined *and* coloured to aid your comprehension.

That's all I've got time for. I am now out for the evening.

Vote Denesmet

It is safe for him to vote there without venturing an opinion, it also makes him look like a town member. (bear in mind that he had made one maybe 2 posts at most including a check in post. Now he is back in amongst the crowd)

day two Ano finds Merrid to be low posting scum, little content and full of summaries.
Both points against Merrid, why aren't you voting him again?

Anomandaris, on 30 July 2014 - 09:06 AM, said:

So, I'm going to go ahead and do a little fishing

Vote Merrid

And see what we can see.

After this huge debate between ano and ghennan...

I am going off the premise that the shields do know each other...

traction

Eldat Pressen, on 30 July 2014 - 11:31 AM, said:

Ok Caught up. Fucking Anomandaris is annoyingly ignorant of what is going on around him, doesnt really make him scum and unfortunately I have to agree with him that Merrid looks scummy at the moment as well. I really didnt like the Ultama vote and post flurry at the end as already stated. As for Shields knowing each other, I would simply assume the worst for the moment and figure that they do.

So someone else notices Merrid..

Finally Merrid comes out of the woodwork. He makes a post about Skin's ability and possibility of him being either scum or town.

Eldat Pressen, on 30 July 2014 - 01:19 PM, said:

I actually want to throw Tennes out there as well. looking back through the thread his contributions have been pretty much non-existant. And yet from the posted post counts he is right there in the middle. So lets get something more on thread.

Vote Tennes

Eldat Pressen, on 30 July 2014 - 01:33 PM, said:

Just some more thoughts on Merrid at the moment. When he finally posts anything he is making these giant post walls consisting of questions that have already been answered, thoughts that are completely unhelpful and as stated general summations, which everybody should be keeping track of themselves. He isnt really throwing anything of value out and certainly seems to be going out of his way to not include anybody's name into fitting with how he sees the game to be going

Iparth Erule, on 30 July 2014 - 02:41 PM, said:

Vote Tennes

fuck it I am very lazy and its been taking me hours to get anywhere.

I'll post and continue my read up.

Crux of my argument is I think Merrid and/or Tennes are a shield.

[Tennes]

Eldat Pressen, on 05 August 2014 - 02:06 PM, said:

Comp at booted me off and won't let me back. @PG no quotes on phone but I think your analysis is very good. Tennes has been #1 on my list for a couple days now. Merrid is another top contender. I would throw Ryadd in there for the swing away from Tennes on day he was up for lynch. Not supposed to be on phone at work so....
Vote Tennes

I don't what to say.He says I have been 1st on his list for a couple of days but doesn't provide a reason for it. He then votes me once again without another reason.

Prazec Goul, on 05 August 2014 - 03:01 PM, said:

Ryadd Eleis, on 05 August 2014 - 12:20 AM, said:

Right, so I think that Aranatha is town. Reasoning is that I don't think a guard/shield would have an ability which would counter the intentions of their scum leader.


Tennes is technically incorrect that the chances of Ghennan being a guard/shield are 50%, as I believe PS has stated that it is possible (though presumably not probable) for a regular gladiator to also win against a champion. However, the likelihood does seem to be that Ghennan is either a champion themselves or one of the guard/shields.

If we think of these guards as symps, as Skintick wisely urged, then it has to be said that Ghennan has been acting quite sympish. Loud, directing attention, keeping much of the focus on mechanics and speculation as to scum moves, continuing to pour suspicion on PIs including openly urging a Skintick death (right up to asking Skin to commit suicide if I remember correctly) 'for the good of town'.

Ghennan is my top choice right now, but I would need to read over his posts again tomorrow to cement it. But for now,

Vote Ghennan

Lazy ish vote here, following Tennes but now after the reveal he is actually putting more effort into his game. This is why I wanted to leave it another day or so before doing my analysis because Iparth/Ryadd/Merrid have all done scummy things, or definitely do not look like stand up town. Eldat and Tennes have both come across as looking town but Tennes has Merrid defending him, and a bit of wierd play that I highlighted earlier. He also has the spat with Ghennan and immediately votes for Ghennan straight off the bat, possibly knowing that he needs to be lynched if you cannot be beat in the arena. So Tennes is my top choice but my second choice is too obscure.

TALK TO FUCKING MERRID ABOUT THAT.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 4. 7 hours and 28 minutes remaining.

There are 9 Players left alive: Aranatha, Bendal Home, Eldat Pressen, Ghennan, Iparth Erule, Merrid, Prazec Goul, Ryadd Eleis, Tennes

5 votes to lynch. 5 votes for night.

3 votes Tennes: Ghennan, Prazec Goul, Eldat Pressen
1 vote Ryadd Eleis: Iparth Erule


Players not voted: Aranatha, Bendal Home, Merrid, Ryadd Eleis, Tennes

[Aranatha]

I was fairly sure Bendal would make Ghennan and I fight tonight. I figured that's what he was doing when he had me fight Skintick. That's why I used my ability to replace myself. Ghennan reveals Spartacus, Skintick cf as Gan, which leaves my identity easy to figure out by default.

This game has went scums way every single step. All we can do now is hope to get lucky. We've narrowed it down to 6 people. I will probably be dead come tomorrow. If we lynch wrong, that'll leave 7 of us. Then it'll be down to 5 to choose from.

I can't say with any certainty who I believe scum to be. I'll reread the entire thread when I get home, but we will need some luck on our side as well.

[Ryadd Eleis]

Merrid.

Kinda the opposite of Iparth, I was surprised by how much more activity there was (relatively, compared to the near-silence I imagined), albeit in bursts.

A long-winded summary of Skintick’s reveal which says in a very roundabout fashion what had already been said by others – I think I may actually have commented on this at the time.

Merrid, on 30 July 2014 - 12:52 PM, said:

Bendal Home, on 30 July 2014 - 01:45 AM, said:

So much anger Skintick. Such rage may fool others, but it is clear you've gone mad with lust.

FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS, SKINTICK, YOU MUST SPEAK AS YOU WOULD TO LOVERS, AS IF YOU WISH TO MAKE SWEET LOVE TO ALL THE GREASED UP MANMEAT YOU TUSSLE WITH IN THE YARD.

I suppose we'll find out for certain if BH has a limited number of uses today - plainly this backfired on BH when Skintick left if it was his only use.

So Skinticks claim has come off and there was no fight. So could it be a scum ability?

What would it gain scum? BH chooses to pit both Guards into the fight. The ability auto-fires. This buys them a day with no fight, both live a day longer and we either lynch one of them (as we did) or leave them alone to fight again. Potentially it saves a guard for a night if they were under suspicion but I don't really see it as one of them will die. If BH puts only one Guard in it delays the fight for a Day with as we've seen minimal scum advantage beyond the lynch - we can then look at it and decide to lynch the possible guard instead or accept the story.

What would it gain town? BH puts one of our roled characters into fight, for scummy reasons of course. Unknown to him, the ability auto-fires delaying the inevtiable fight. We know those two will fight eventually, we can instead look at other alts and second-guess BH's motives since he clearly didn't expect to be delayed. We actually lynched the other fighter so we can be sure it wasn't a guard being set up to be PI'd by the fight and we can be sure Skintick isn't scum. We gain a PI/VPI. BH now needs to keep pitting people against Skintick in order to try and eliminate either our PI or have him take down other town.


So, I don't think Skintick is scum. I don't think Kesso is. Skintick is going to be used as bait to draw our our other roled town; Skinticks ability is as he says 1-shot therefore I think this is all he has, beyond that he's a standard fighter relying on luck/judgement to win against town. Anyone who beats him is either lucky or roled - roled town or roled scum (guard.)

Now, the fights are BH/scums way of narrowing down roled town most likely and the fight & lynch ours. They may start with an information advantage - if they know who they all are - but we're going to be getting more out of it in the long run.

I haven't done the sums and don't have time to now but did Skinticks ability delay D-Day? In which case most certainly VPI for him.

A somewhat limp-handed effort at ‘provoking’ Bendal. An attempt at distancing?

Merrid, on 30 July 2014 - 12:54 PM, said:

Well in the time it took to type that BH has proved he can do multiple things in a single day. Although only to one alt at a time.

Care to try your luck with someone else BH? Your efforts so far have been rather boringly predictable, show us why we want you dead.

Now this next post is interesting. Note especially the bolded part on Ashur – would scum give out that kind of potential advice, highlighting a potential weakness in one of the shields? Unless, of course, in the game no such weakness exists and Merrid is using it in the hopes of persuading people into using a certain pattern of attack.

Merrid, on 30 July 2014 - 11:02 PM, said:

I get accused of middle of the road when I'm getting screwed at work and rather busy at home? Oh jeez, thank you.

Tennes, care to elaborate on why I'm the best lynch candidate?



And now, for something completely different, speculation I'd been building as to that big mechanic we've not yet seen in action; BH's delayed fight.

Warning, role speculation ahead. You don't like it? Tough shit.

So, we have for scum (detail taken from Spartacus wiki as I've not seen the show);

Batiatus; Tyrant Steve role. LP until Ono and Ashur are dead. No indication that he can't enter fights himself.

Roled/guard/shield/whatever you want to call them. More likely to survive a fight than most town:

Onomaeus; Doctore. Joins the rebels according to wiki. Little clue as to weapons but skilled with them all, potential symp/lover pairing if there is Melitta in the game, this goes a big way to rebalance the odds if so. Suspect multiple attacks or special moves, capable of killing most town.

Ashur; former gladiator with a crippled leg. Due to that character titbit fighting him hitting low low low in the hope of a vulnerability may do well. Slow moving and good with unarmed combat.




Now we come to the fun stuff - town roles. Anyone surviving a fight is also a suspect for being a guard.

Spartacus; Armour varies a lot. Wife called Sura so potential town lover pair right there, if so they can compare their stats so know if it was someone powerful who took the other down if in a fight, potentially highlighting one of the scum. Potential weapon choices are available: sword and shield, dual-swords and spear. So hard hitting and good defence. Our big gun in the arena, just needs to avoid being labelled as a shield.

Crixus; No armour details. Potential lover in Naevia. Sword/shield combo, brute force - heavy gun for town, another scum killer.

Gannicus; Two sword attacks so no shield, No armour but can use a fighting style that is defensive. Friend of Ono. Got some "signature" attacks - potential vote override in a draw situation?


Tennes speculates Crixus may be Skintick in which case he's probably a good fighter so should try to win. Although Kesso has less posts than me so won't be too much of a loss.

So, time to look at alts. I'm only going to do those with votes on (except, naturally, me) because time. And yes, I'm probably treading no new ground. Deal with it.

Then comes Merrid’s analysis of Tennes which concludes that Tennes is very good town, and which has already been discussed by others. Then says they also did the same for Ultama but lost the post. Found lots of ‘niggles’, and votes for Ultama.


Continues to post after this one saying they’re going away. Sign of not wanting to be away from the thread during a spell of pressure? (This was after the likes of Anomandaris had begun pointing at them).

Merrid, on 31 July 2014 - 08:01 AM, said:

Guess what - I've got some time today. I have no time tomorrow and probably wont post all day. My internet gets installed on Monday at some point so no posting till late then. I'm sufficiently irritated that I'm going to go and do some shopping today rather than posting. Suck it.

What an odd answer.

Merrid, on 31 July 2014 - 08:40 AM, said:

Iparth Erule, on 31 July 2014 - 08:36 AM, said:

Merrid,

Why would one shield know who the other one was, AND assume that they didn't have the same information so they felt they had to signal?

Anyways, I like the contributions Kesso and Tennes have made today, so I'm not as keen on voting in that direction.

I need to do a re-read again. My initial re-read I latched onto this interesting post by Ryadd and mixed them with Eldat, so my concentration was mainly on their posts. Back to the drawing board.

Because the Doctore may have reason to think he has more information than Ashur?

You know what, no, I don't actually know.

I am loath to use a Bendal quote as evidence, but could there be significance in referring to Merrid specifically as a Thracian?

Merrid, on 31 July 2014 - 12:41 PM, said:

Bendal Home, on 31 July 2014 - 12:39 PM, said:

Merrid, on 31 July 2014 - 12:34 PM, said:

Bendal Home, on 31 July 2014 - 12:33 PM, said:

Ahh, another wondrous day!

vote night

Night actually. Who is your money on?

You dare correct me you piss-eating shit of a whore. A Thracian pig like you cannot understand the higher intellect of a proper Roman citizen. All my Gladiators stand as Titans in the arena, and I dare not place money against one over another.

You're out of actions for the next two hours, why not?

Dare not? Surely with knowledge of who your best fighters are you'd be in perfect place to win

Not for the first time, Merrid intimates that they want Bendal’s ‘attention’.

Merrid, on 31 July 2014 - 06:52 PM, said:

Bendal Home, on 31 July 2014 - 05:48 PM, said:

SKINTICK MUST SPEAK AS THOUGH HE WANTS TO MAKE LOVE TO EVERY OTHER PLAYER FOR THE NEXT FOUR HOURS

You know you could at least spread it around a little more. Skintick is probably fed up of you now. At least fish elsewhere for reactions/slips if you're genuinely looking for roled town.

As I said at the top, Merrid's been around more than I thought, but in bursts. Of the six non-fighters, states that they believe Tennes is town, picks weakly at a couple of things I've said, responds to Iparth and...not much else. Very little direct interaction with the rest of the thread (aside from departed Anomandaris, who essentially forced it on them), and a fair few of the posts replied to are Bendal's (relatively, more so than most).

This post has been edited by Ryadd Eleis: 05 August 2014 - 08:40 PM

[Merrid]

Blatant modkill avoidal post. See we're going Tennes, I hope for better reasons than there wasn't on Day 1?

No actual handle on thread atm, not read since last post so if I'm fighting good luck getting a Night resolution in less than 12 hours, same for vote as my phone doesn't like the messenger.

Vote Tennes