Malazan Empire: Mafia 112.5 - Malazan Empire

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Mafia 112.5 Betrayal at House on the Hill

#981 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:12 PM

Kaschan removing his vote is town play, he has done this before.

Pallid's post was pretty good, and sways me away from thinking he is a killer

these are not just cause they swing away from me, it is because they make no sense from a scum point of view, Pallid has been saying I am scummy for a while now, and it would have been quite easy for him to vote for me there. Kaschan could have left his vote there and scum could have hammered at any time.

Barghast's vote was so off, he didn't even discuss things on thread.

Pallid says someone is lying with the reveals, but healer could be in this game, and if it is then what is the use of a BP? Then again the BP could be and the healer may not be.

Thinking on this some more, why include both a BP AND a healer?

The only thing GL has supporting him, is he did it under no pressure whatsoever.


I have had GL as town since his rp games but he could be scum, but if he was, why not vote for me after Barghast did and win the game?

So thinking about it, I have changed to say that if I must vote today it will be Barghast

#982 User is offline   Pallid 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:15 PM

the thing stopping me with Barghast was him saying he wanted to be the hammer on amp, was disapointed he didn't get to be. The only way that makes sense for a killer is a killer making the game winning lynch. Most other suspicion on Barghast is derived from his lynch survival afaik.
My heads melted, there's a 2 edged sword on all players

#983 User is offline   Galayn Lord 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:16 PM

If I'm right and there is only one scum, then you guys could always lynch me or Eloth today in order to hopefully clear that up a bit for yourselves. But, of course, that's only if I'm right (or wrong about Eloth being scum if you lynch him), and at the moment I think I'm the only person to think that way.



Edit: That should say, Eloth being town rather than scum.

This post has been edited by Galayn Lord: 03 June 2014 - 04:18 PM


#984 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:19 PM

View PostPallid, on 03 June 2014 - 04:15 PM, said:

the thing stopping me with Barghast was him saying he wanted to be the hammer on amp, was disapointed he didn't get to be. The only way that makes sense for a killer is a killer making the game winning lynch. Most other suspicion on Barghast is derived from his lynch survival afaik.
My heads melted, there's a 2 edged sword on all players


So dull the blade that is sharpest, gut feeling, whoever you have the strongest read on, whoever has kept you coming back to them as scum, whatever. At this point, you have a 2 in 5 chance to hit scum anyway, who do you want to vote on right now?

#985 User is offline   Pallid 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:21 PM

Id rather not play Russian roulette without knowing at least how many bullets are in the chamber GL.

I really don't think we can operate under any assumption other than this is dday.

#986 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:22 PM

People are making sense.

Big Bang Theory fans? It was Penny!

#987 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:23 PM

I have the next 40 minutes, don't know if I will find the time to come back on before days end after that. Looks like Denul has dodged the bullet once more. The bastard.

#988 User is offline   Pallid 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:27 PM

cross post.

its a toss up wieghted this way

Kasch eloth

bargh GL



could literally vote for any of them but I think my heart just really wants eloth to be lying and him not win if we lynch him
GL reveal has me split 50/50 as well, scum play for just the kind of wifom.surrounding Eloth, or genuine?
Barg, sure he survived a lynch, but all pressure has been derived from that, voted a claimed healer, balsy scum move to say the least
Kasch, phew, don't honestly know any more on this one, he could have left that vote on denul and hoped that I would swing for the fences with my fingers crossed, but that's twice now he's pulled back a L-1. Otoh how likely was a hammer, what if both killers were already on the train etc.


If Denuls a killer he get motm for being so out there and in your face with it, its just too ridiculous to be true.

Occams razor says someone is lying, given our ninja vig and the nature of the reveals I'm inclined to say GL is telling the truth. But a little voice in my head whispers, what if it was meant to make you think that?

leaning into an Eloth/kasch/barg vote at the minute. We have time

#989 User is offline   Galayn Lord 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:33 PM

View PostPallid, on 03 June 2014 - 04:27 PM, said:


[snip]

Barg, sure he survived a lynch, but all pressure has been derived from that, voted a claimed healer, balsy scum move to say the least

[snip]




The voting for a claimed healer is also a sticking point for me. The only way thing I can reason is that (if Bargh is scum) if he felt it was between him and Eloth for the lynch, then really he had no other option than keeping Eloth a lynch candidate by voting them.

I can't say there is any one single thing which convinces me that Eloth is telling the truth. It's more like an accumulation of a small things, just general posting, some "oh, just lynch me then!" frustration posts, things like that. If it's all acted, then bravo.

#990 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:39 PM

View PostGalayn Lord, on 03 June 2014 - 04:33 PM, said:

View PostPallid, on 03 June 2014 - 04:27 PM, said:


[snip]

Barg, sure he survived a lynch, but all pressure has been derived from that, voted a claimed healer, balsy scum move to say the least

[snip]




The voting for a claimed healer is also a sticking point for me. The only way thing I can reason is that (if Bargh is scum) if he felt it was between him and Eloth for the lynch, then really he had no other option than keeping Eloth a lynch candidate by voting them.

I can't say there is any one single thing which convinces me that Eloth is telling the truth. It's more like an accumulation of a small things, just general posting, some "oh, just lynch me then!" frustration posts, things like that. If it's all acted, then bravo.


Mostly it's just ACTUAL frustration because my attempts to prove my own and others innocence has been remarked upon by basically everyone as "really good scum play". I really regret revealing my role. :wallbash:

#991 User is offline   Kaschan 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:55 PM

View PostEloth, on 03 June 2014 - 04:39 PM, said:

View PostGalayn Lord, on 03 June 2014 - 04:33 PM, said:

View PostPallid, on 03 June 2014 - 04:27 PM, said:

[snip]

Barg, sure he survived a lynch, but all pressure has been derived from that, voted a claimed healer, balsy scum move to say the least

[snip]




The voting for a claimed healer is also a sticking point for me. The only way thing I can reason is that (if Bargh is scum) if he felt it was between him and Eloth for the lynch, then really he had no other option than keeping Eloth a lynch candidate by voting them.

I can't say there is any one single thing which convinces me that Eloth is telling the truth. It's more like an accumulation of a small things, just general posting, some "oh, just lynch me then!" frustration posts, things like that. If it's all acted, then bravo.


Mostly it's just ACTUAL frustration because my attempts to prove my own and others innocence has been remarked upon by basically everyone as "really good scum play". I really regret revealing my role. :wallbash:


I regret that we didn't lynch you and Barghast. I feel that town has let way to much WIFOM remain in this game since those two failed lynches. I don't know when we will learn but failed lynches always come back to bite us. I have zero trust for anyone else in this game right now. I still think Denul is scum whether he is a symp or a killer I don't know but he is definitely scum. I feel as though the the pressure to lynch Amp over Eloth came from denul. I will have to go back and see where the pressure to lynch Nimander rather then Barghast came from.

If Eloth is scum then I think that Pallid is as well. Even if a healer does a heal on someone that doesn't clear that person from being scum. Yes I know there was a failed NK. But clearing someone is pretty huge.

If Denul is scum then I think that GL or Barghast is as well.

If GL is scum then Eloth,Pallid,Gl, Barghast is as well...ugggg.

This is just painful.

#992 User is offline   Kaschan 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:57 PM

Circular logic meets circular logic multiplied by a six sided die being thrown by a blind ape. That is what is going through my head right now.

#993 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 05:10 PM

It is now Day 5. 8 hours 7 minutes remaining.

6 players are alive: Barghast, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kaschan, Pallid

4 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.

1 vote Kaschan: Pallid
2 votes Denul: Eloth, Barghast


Players not voted: Denul, Galayn Lord, Kaschan
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#994 User is offline   Galayn Lord 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 05:18 PM

Partnerships as killer-killer (haven't included myself because I'm sure you guys can do that for yourselves).


Barghast - Pallid

Pallid votes Barghast after Barghast votes for Eloth following reveal.

Barghast - Eloth

Barghast votes Eloth after Eloth reveals on day 2, consistently saying one of Eloth or GL is lying.

Barghast - Denul

Denul saying he could vote Barghast today, Barghast initially voted Denul day 2 after doing that post about coming back later to make a case on someone.

Barghast - Kaschan

Day 3, Kaschan said he would only vote Barghast or Nimander, initially votes Barghast.

Pallid - Eloth

Pallid had strong suspicions of Eloth before the reveal and voted them. Eloth voted Pallid on day 1 as a joke vote (would have been quite ballsy for a scum pairing to do). Pallid still talking about possibly voting Eloth now.

Pallid - Denul

Pallid has attacked Denul before, voting them. Denul had early suspicion of Pallid.

Pallid - Kaschan

Late-game (today) suspicion of Kaschan by Pallid, voting them. This is probably the weakest strikethrough reasoning of all, and really mostly based on me not seeing Pallid as scum.

Eloth - Denul

Should be obvious, the two have been at each other's throats.

Eloth - Kaschan

Kaschan has consistently reiterated their suspicion of Eloth.

Denul - Kaschan

Kaschan has wanted to vote Denul today.



So that's why I think one killer. Of course, these strikethrough can change if there is a killer and a symp still alive, as the killer could quite happily, whether knowingly or not, attack their symp. Some of the above are struck through because both players have been at odds with each other - which makes a killer-symp relationship also unlikely in their cases. But that's not the case for all of them.

#995 User is offline   Galayn Lord 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 05:23 PM

Nimander said that he saw Eloth's reveal but wasn't going to vote for Barghast following that no matter what. This has made me wonder if that was Nimander trying to tell Barghast that they were Barghy's symp.

#996 User is offline   Kaschan 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 05:27 PM

View PostGalayn Lord, on 03 June 2014 - 05:23 PM, said:

Nimander said that he saw Eloth's reveal but wasn't going to vote for Barghast following that no matter what. This has made me wonder if that was Nimander trying to tell Barghast that they were Barghy's symp.


That was why I thought that Barghast should have been lynched rather then Nimander. But since Nimander came up town we can not know if he was a symp or not.

#997 User is offline   Galayn Lord 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 05:36 PM

I honestly don't know if the below interaction makes my suspicion stronger or weaker. Thoughts? Nimander goes through the Liosan train and changes, reassures Barghast when Barghy protests, but votes Sukul (who would have to be killer in this scenario) - votes Sukul because thinking they were either already doomed/not in actual danger of being lynched? Or because genuinely suspicious?



View PostNimander Golit, on 28 May 2014 - 03:10 AM, said:

View PostBarghast, on 28 May 2014 - 02:34 AM, said:

View PostNimander Golit, on 28 May 2014 - 02:17 AM, said:

snip


11 posts between the vig trigger and resolution. Ampelas, Hood's Path, Fener, Kaschan, Barghast, and GL. Scratch Fener and HP.

Now it comes down to what you think is the right play. I'd have continued with the LIo lynch simply because there wasn't enough time to go elsewhere. If it was vig, he dies. If it wasn't a vig, why let him live to simply be lynched the next day? HP, Amp, Kaschan, and Barghast all disagree with me and think that lynching Lio is a bad idea. HP removes and votes Eloth. Barghast simply removes. GL is last with a remove and vote Eloth with no explanation. Kaschan has no vote down and Ampelas has his firmly on Eloth.


I'm willing to bet that one of Ampelas, Kaschan, Barghast, and GL are scum. Ampelas simply thinks that lynching Liosan is a bad idea and then disappears. Not a single word of encouragement to swing and follow his own vote for Eloth. Barghast explains why he removes. Kaschan doesn't say anything beyond he's hesitant to lynch anyone until the Liosan thing plays out. GL's remove and vote comes plenty late enough that he had to know he was wasting his time.

Quote


At timeout...


11 players are alive: Ampelas, Atrahal, Barghast, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Hood's Path, Kaschan, Nimander Golit, Pallid, Sukul Ankhadu

7 votes to lynch. 7 votes to go to night.

3 votes Eloth: Ampelas, Hood's Path, Galayn Lord

Not voted: Atrahal, Barghast, Denul, Eloth, Kaschan, Nimander Golit, Pallid, Sukul Ankhadu


Amp's lack of enthusiasm for is own choice bothers me but GL bothers me more. His stupid posts, jumping at the PS coercion, and then the "nah, I'm just fucking with you". But I have enough doubt about that that I'm more willing to go with the safer choice; the person who reset the modkill timer during the freeze:


Vote Sukul Ankhadu





You say that you think one of Ampelas, me, Kaschan, or Galayn is scum, then vote for Sukul as your 'safest choice.'

Your entire view on the Liosan fiasco concerns me. You call those of us out that removed from Liosan, yet we, or at least I, was around to have been able to vote for Liosan if needed. It doesn't matter that I removed. I was around to vote again had anyone else stepped up, but we didn't ever have enough votes even with the removes. I removed to give Liosan time in case he was trying to tell us something, and it turns out he was doing exactly that. You weren't even around to help us, so don't sit back and cast doubts at the only few people that were actually trying.


Just learning to read? "Barghast explains why he removes."

I'm suspicious of Amp and GL. But I think it's unlikely they're both scum because they were around. In case you may have missed it, we're not doing so well on the town/scum ratio. I tossed out a stupid line looking for a reaction and got nothing. With lack of conviction of anyone, I do think Sukul is the safest choice.

As for your "I removed to give Liosan time in case he was trying to tell us something" line? If he was a suicide vig he couldn't say anything else because he was dead. So you waiting to hear more from him is either stupid or disingenuous.


I'll play however I feel like playing. If you don't like that vote me or go suck a bag of dicks.






The below post is the one where Nimander says he wouldn't have voted for Barghast.


View PostNimander Golit, on 29 May 2014 - 06:28 PM, said:

I saw the healer reveal before leaving, but I doubt that I would have removed and I almost certainly wouldn't have voted Barghast. Barghast's vote on Eloth makes sense to me at that point in time. Healer reveal looked like a ploy to gain a day. Easy claim to make because you can't prove it. And once revealed, if true, he's going to be dead shortly anyway. Test the reveal. And only one way to do that. And Barghast's vote on Eloth after the reveal would be incredibly stupid for scum. Why not just say, "oh, ok, well I'm not going to vote myself", wait it out, and NK him. That vote actually made a Barghast lynch more likely. Very, very ballsy or town.

No lynch, then no NK. WIFOM of course, but I find the two most likely explanations are Eloth is a killer or the killer abstained upon seeing the reveal. The latter requires that the killer did see the healer reveal and decided to throw some WIFOM into play. To be fair, I could easily be the killer under the latter condition. I'm not but somebody will bring it up.

Now that I'm looking at this through sober eyes:

Remove Vote


I still think you're scum, but I want to think on this a bit further.



Dunno dunno dunno.

#998 User is offline   Galayn Lord 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 05:47 PM

Might as well put my money where my mouth is for now.

Vote Barghast


I'm not around for the next couple of hours or so. If anyone wants to try and pick holes in my choice, please be my guest.

#999 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 05:52 PM

It is now Day 5. 7 hours 25 minutes remaining.

6 players are alive: Barghast, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kaschan, Pallid

4 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.

1 vote Kaschan: Pallid
2 votes Denul: Eloth, Barghast
1 vote Barghast: Galayn Lord


Players not voted: Denul, Kaschan
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#1000 User is offline   Pallid 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 06:43 PM

I wont be here at time out but will be sporadically here for a few hours, going to the gym here now

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