Malazan Empire: Mafia 112.5 - Malazan Empire

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Mafia 112.5 Betrayal at House on the Hill

#921 User is offline   Galayn Lord 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 12:46 AM

Eloth:

Day 1, votes for Pallid as a joke vote.
Denul and Pallid catch eye.
Removes vote, votes Sukul
Suspects Denul
Removes vote, votes for Liosan but doesn't really buy it.
Day 2, Votes Denul for either being scum or completely wrong in their play.
Suspicious of Denul and GL
Removes vote from Denul, agrees to wait to see what GL and Barghast post.
Votes GL
Reveals healer, removes vote, votes Denul, thinks both Denul and GL are scum.
Two posts in which they explain that they left it till the last minute so as to hope that killers are not around to change NK target.
Removes vote, votes Barghast, but would much prefer Denul.
Day3, states that they healed Ampelas again, but were close to choosing Pallid.
Suspects Barghast may be a symp.
Still willing to lynch Denul
Votes Nimander, happier to vote there than Barghast or Ampelas.
Mentions Kaschan as being unnoticed.
Thinks Denul is scum.
States Kaschan middle-of-the-road, can't figure out.
Believes Pallid town.
Believes GL likely scum
Uncertain on Barghast.
Day 4, puts Pallid and Eloth in town; Denul, Barghast, and Kaschan in scum.
Votes Kaschan
Removes vote, votes Ampelas, no explanation (other than that's where the lynch is going and frustration?)
Day 5, States they healed Pallid.
Suspects Denul, Kaschan, GL, Barghast in that order.
Remarks that Denul sounds desperate.

#922 User is offline   Galayn Lord 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 03:25 AM

Denul:

Joke votes Fener
Can't see Pallid turning up killer, possibly symp.
Removes vote, believes more strongly that Pallid is a symp.
Accuses Pallid again but votes Liosan
Removes vote, votes Barghast to 'call them out'.
Removes vote, after Ampelas questions.
Doesn't think GL is scummy.
Removes vote, votes Liosan.
Day 2, says Eloth reads false.
Votes Atrahal.
Thinks Barghast is a symp.
Leans toward Eloth being town and Barghast being scum.
Thinks GL is town due to RP.
If Barghast symp, guesses killer would be one of Kaschan, Pallid, Nimander and Sukul, along with Atrahal.
Suspects Pallid but lower down his suspect list.
Prompted by Ampelas, Denul deconstructs Eloth's case on him. Calls it awful, but continues to state Eloth is probably town.
Removes vote, votes Barghast.
GL's change in play has Denul wary.
Thinks Barghast is scum.
Kaschan and Pallid near the top of Denul's list.
Thinks Barghast, Kaschan, Nimander, Pallid likeliest to be scum.
Says won't doubt Eloth's reveal. Thinks Pallid and Kaschan would be good choices after reveal.
Day 3, votes Nimander
Unlikely to vote Eloth, but says longer Eloth stays alive, the more paranoid he will become.
Says he would vote Kaschan
Thinks one of Eloth and GL is a symp, and killers are possibly among Nimander, Kaschan and Pallid.
Changes to Nimander, Barghast, and Kaschan.
Removes vote, votes Atrahal to add to Pallid's vote.
Emphasises not his target, but Pallid's, just adding pressure.
Removes vote, votes Ampelas for putting forward a 'scum plan' (Ampelas said that a Nimander lynch if scum makes Barghast look suspicious, if inno, makes Denul look suspicious).
Removes vote, votes Nimander.
Says Eloth has given him a scum vibe all game, but as symp.
Suggests GL could be scum, can't see both healer and BP.
Reading through Nimander's posts makes him believe Barghast is town.
Suggests that GL is pushing a lot of targets.
Again thinks Eloth could be symp
Distrusts everything Ampelas says.
One of Eloth, Ampelas, or GL is scum 'leader' (whatever that means).
Says thinks Barghast and Pallid town, scum Ampelas and Eloth, unsure about GL and Kaschan.
90% sure Eloth is symp and Ampelas killer.
Votes Ampelas
Day 5, Discusses going to night.
Votes night.



Interesting fact: Both Denul and Kaschan had wedding anniversaries during this game (or possibly Denul was just buying an anniversary present early).

#923 User is offline   Galayn Lord 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 03:29 AM

It's now half 4 in the morning here so I am going to leave conclusions till after a short night's rest. But my initial feelings based on these reads is that Eloth, Pallid...and probably Denul are town.

Which leaves me with Barghast and Kaschan, as well as the feeling that there might be only one scum left.

#924 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 07:36 AM

My question is, if Eloth is symp and looked like he could have signalled Ampelas who turned out scum, would he be so overt as to symp Pallid as well. The difference being, his early day one votes were Pallid and Sukul.

If Eloth is a symp, or say I am a symp then it stands to reason that Sukul was indeed a killer. If there is a symp alive then 100% Sukul was a killer.

So those two votes by Eloth are interesting.

#925 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 07:59 AM

I just had a few quotes drawn up but they indicated Barghast and Eloth as a possible pairing but that is impossible due to Barghast almost being lynched AND Eloth being on that train.

#926 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:10 AM

View PostDenul, on 03 June 2014 - 07:36 AM, said:

My question is, if Eloth is symp and looked like he could have signalled Ampelas who turned out scum, would he be so overt as to symp Pallid as well. The difference being, his early day one votes were Pallid and Sukul.

If Eloth is a symp, or say I am a symp then it stands to reason that Sukul was indeed a killer. If there is a symp alive then 100% Sukul was a killer.

So those two votes by Eloth are interesting.


Ampelas was RI, what are you talking about he was scum. Did you just slip up and reveal you know he was your symp?

There is no 100% Sukul was anything. Trying to turn baseless speculation into fact is not useful to town.

My Sukul vote was pretty simply motivated, he had yet to post so I wanted to force him to have a presence. You agreed with me that it was the correct move at the time.

#927 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:24 AM

View PostEloth, on 03 June 2014 - 08:10 AM, said:

View PostDenul, on 03 June 2014 - 07:36 AM, said:

My question is, if Eloth is symp and looked like he could have signalled Ampelas who turned out scum, would he be so overt as to symp Pallid as well. The difference being, his early day one votes were Pallid and Sukul.

If Eloth is a symp, or say I am a symp then it stands to reason that Sukul was indeed a killer. If there is a symp alive then 100% Sukul was a killer.

So those two votes by Eloth are interesting.


Ampelas was RI, what are you talking about he was scum. Did you just slip up and reveal you know he was your symp?

There is no 100% Sukul was anything. Trying to turn baseless speculation into fact is not useful to town.

My Sukul vote was pretty simply motivated, he had yet to post so I wanted to force him to have a presence. You agreed with me that it was the correct move at the time.



Oh so you will deign to reply to something I said about you. I meant that Amp was town, so you could have been fake symping Pallid, but the votes indicate it was a different sort of symping because you distanced early and highlighted that you knew who they were early.

#928 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:26 AM

Eloth IF there is a symp alive, like you suggested I am, like I am suggesting you are, then it stands to reason that the second killer was Sukul because there should be 3 scum in the game, usual 2 killers and a symp. If you are suggesting there is a symp still alive, then Sukul HAS to be a killer.


2 scum left = either;

killer/killer

or symp/killer

#929 User is offline   Pallid 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:26 AM

morning again.

Denul is really stretching here now, Amp was RI, sukul we know absolutely nothing about right now, beyond the fact that he made all of 2 (Iirc) posts.
I cant decide if Denuls reaching to distract and derail other discussion or if he just wants to paddle the day away to get the night he so desperately desires

#930 User is offline   Pallid 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:27 AM

cross post. Does the op state the scum set up or have we all just been assuming 2 killers 1 symp?

#931 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:30 AM

Eloth please answer below.


View PostDenul, on 02 June 2014 - 08:56 AM, said:

quick question Eloth

Why did you not code in that you are a healer early on?



View PostDenul, on 02 June 2014 - 09:42 AM, said:

I think if I was to vote anyone today it would be Eloth.

From a scum PoV

He has created a lot of Wifom, even before the reveal he wanted to discuss why HP died.

Before that, I made a post about Pallid, in that post I said I didn't think he was scum, and I have had those opinions most of the way through the game, it's why I have not looked at Pallid since. Yet with 6 players left, he could be scum. I think Eloth defending Pallid here is interesting though. After my little dig at Pallid, Eloths says...

View PostEloth, on 22 May 2014 - 11:21 AM, said:

Denul you are treating everything after that post as genuine and serious, when I think most of them are still humorous/joking. It wasn't until you started posting about it that things heated up.

Not sure I like where you are trying to take this thread, you admit he's unlikely to be scum then continue trying to vilify him and make others hostile to him as well. You are within the same post contradicting yourself here. Why?



and

View PostEloth, on 22 May 2014 - 11:24 AM, said:

I don't think any symp would be so reactionary and vehement about a couple of joke posts, they might sweat a bit but this is not a proportional or reasonable response a symp would have. I think you are reaching here.


Further signalling from Eloth in this quote below.

View PostEloth, on 22 May 2014 - 12:01 PM, said:

View PostDenul, on 22 May 2014 - 11:33 AM, said:

View PostEloth, on 22 May 2014 - 11:24 AM, said:

I don't think any symp would be so reactionary and vehement about a couple of joke posts, they might sweat a bit but this is not a proportional or reasonable response a symp would have. I think you are reaching here.



I see you voted for Pallid, was that just a joke?
And now for something completely different is a well known Monty Python phrase between bits, it signalled the end of one line of thought and the begining of another, yes it was a joke

So you think Pallid is joking with his posts?
No not joking, pallid responded very aggressively to the double vote, and I don't yet know why, it of course is worth further consideration, but we can't draw any conclusions from it I think.

I am not taking the thread anywhere. What else do you want me to focus on?
Learning how to pole-dance, obviously.

Ampelas made a point about Hood putting two people in his little post, like a signal to a master. That is more symp like, subtle, but HP would know we look out for that sort of stuff. You can wifom how town and scum play all you like, but I personally don't get Pallid's reaction to Fener's vote.

I don't think there is a lot to understand about Pallid's reaction, he saw something he didn't like and went for the throat, like a wolf! You are right that it does bear monitoring but more than that? *shrug*


Answered in red

Edit: Fixed beat to bear



These sort of posts and points are what makes me look at Eloth like he is scum.


From a partnership Pov

Ties himself next to Pallid pretty early. The vote is not going to be followed so allows early distancing

View PostEloth, on 21 May 2014 - 09:24 PM, said:

View PostPallid, on 21 May 2014 - 09:14 PM, said:

jumping straight on to bandwagoning lio?

what the fuck?


Agreed wholeheartedly bandwagoning is chickenshit, and now for something completely different;

Vote Pallid


If Eloth is a symp then I could see this as voting for his master especially combined with this next vote

View PostEloth, on 22 May 2014 - 09:58 AM, said:

View PostDenul, on 22 May 2014 - 09:18 AM, said:

View PostEloth, on 22 May 2014 - 08:43 AM, said:

View PostDenul, on 22 May 2014 - 08:11 AM, said:

I do like the avatar though, but I agree with you, I see Fener as ginormous. In Crippled God the hoof seemed to cover such a large area, unless that was just a metaphor or great magic.


In TCG he's big enough to cover 4 massive armies, there was some point earlier in the series when he was a more "regular size" when he was hiding in one of the errants temples I think. Don't know what size was specified but I have a really really hard time ever imagining him as smaller than Rood. Just can't see it.

As for pallids vehemence, people can latch onto flimsy day 1 lynches with all their might, so I don't think either of them are really displaying scum traits at the moment.


Anyone catch your eye so far then?


Since we actually only have just over 1 page of posts to look at after the switch up, the only two people who have caught my eye are you and Pallid. So much seriousness from the pair of you over relatively nothing.

When was the last time anything of consequence was said on day 1 that lead to a successful lynch?

Having said that, I'd really like to hear from some of the people who have yet to contribute in any way. Sukul Ankhadu no posts, three people with 1, most of them just checking in. So in that vein;

Remove Vote
Vote Sukul Ankhadu


Get online and give us what ya got, Sukul!



This may explain why they are still around and that today is D day. We lynch wrong thinking Eloth and Pallid are town and scum win.

If Pallid is town he could be being set up by Eloth. So Eloth being the common denominator would be the best lynch.



View PostDenul, on 02 June 2014 - 12:38 PM, said:

View PostEloth, on 02 June 2014 - 12:29 PM, said:

Scenario 2; Eloth is NKed

After he comes up town Pallid is confirmed town on thread. Everyone feels cheated that I'm not actually scum. Provides the motivation to finaly fucking look elsewhere for the scum. But with Pallid the only known town odds are still 50/50 for actually lynching a scum and since everyone is up for consideration chances are town loses regardless. No obvious scum are revealed from this lynch.



Just want to point out, for the record, that none of the targets I WANT to have lynched HAVE been lynched, and *every single lynch to date* has fucking FAILED. Maybe it's time to listen to someone else?

Going to run through each of these now because it looks like there aren't a lot of people on, and it is in Denuls favour to ignore these so his "go to night" option begins to look better over time (it still sucks ass at time of writing).



How is it that Pallid comes up clear if you are lynched?



View PostDenul, on 02 June 2014 - 12:51 PM, said:

So you're inviting the night kill on yourself so that Pallid can PI himself?

You are so fucking scummy. You won't be night killed. I won't be. Pallid won't be. It will most probably be Barghast or Galayn Lord because I look lynchable, and so does Kaschan.

You focusing the fucking end of day on night actions, same as fucking day one, wifom, a scum trait. When I said go to night I meant so that the suspect pool is decreased, not to fucking wifom on the fucking night kill itself.

Why are you not going over the fucking thread to find scum? I know because you're not town.

Reply to my case upthread please.


#932 User is offline   Pallid 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:32 AM

a quick look shows nothing, I've made my speculations based on the assumption of 2&1 as its been the touted figures all game.

This aside, denul logic adds up in the maths front but little else of his posting is sensical to me.

#933 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:32 AM

View PostPallid, on 03 June 2014 - 08:27 AM, said:

cross post. Does the op state the scum set up or have we all just been assuming 2 killers 1 symp?


13 players alive, ratio scum to town is 3:1. WCS indicates we should be looking at 3 scum. If one scum has died it was either a symp, or a killer. The only person that could have been a killer is Sukul. Fact.

If you think of me as a symp then Sukul was a killer, so who is my partner.

Pallid, what do YOU make of my case against you?


@everyone

I cannot believe Eloth's reveal. I keep thinking I should but he didn't code it in early, he left it late in the day, he is using it to try and PI people, he has wifom'd most of the game, his late game is suspicious because he hasn't responded to my posts, the case against him and Pallid went un-replied too from either of them.

Can I look at Eloth's play and say that is "pro town"? No, I really cannot. If he is a town healer then he has played it very wrong, but also if he is, why is he still alive? That is a major fucking factor in why I don't think he is legit.

If I stop looking at everyone and look at his play from both a town PoV and a scum PoV then it has benefited scum the most.

#934 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:38 AM

View PostPallid, on 03 June 2014 - 08:26 AM, said:

morning again.

Denul is really stretching here now, Amp was RI, sukul we know absolutely nothing about right now, beyond the fact that he made all of 2 (Iirc) posts.
I cant decide if Denuls reaching to distract and derail other discussion or if he just wants to paddle the day away to get the night he so desperately desires


Once more I'd rather lynch Denul, but quite a number of people have expressed a willingness to lynch Kaschan, for a variety of reasons. That might be changing here? At any rate, I will swap my vote to kaschan if necessary but I like our chances better here.

I live in hope.

Vote Denul

Edit: massive-x post, really swamped here at work

This post has been edited by Eloth: 03 June 2014 - 08:43 AM


#935 User is offline   Pallid 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:49 AM

I'm sorry, there's a case against me in all.that mess?

fire away, ask some clear questions instead of burying us in quotes please, I'm on my.phone and its incrediably frustrating trying to sift through all of it for what you're actually saying.

#936 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:50 AM

View PostEloth, on 03 June 2014 - 08:38 AM, said:

View PostPallid, on 03 June 2014 - 08:26 AM, said:

morning again.

Denul is really stretching here now, Amp was RI, sukul we know absolutely nothing about right now, beyond the fact that he made all of 2 (Iirc) posts.
I cant decide if Denuls reaching to distract and derail other discussion or if he just wants to paddle the day away to get the night he so desperately desires


Once more I'd rather lynch Denul, but quite a number of people have expressed a willingness to lynch Kaschan, for a variety of reasons. That might be changing here? At any rate, I will swap my vote to kaschan if necessary but I like our chances better here.

I live in hope.

Vote Denul

Edit: massive-x post, really swamped here at work



This is so lazy and re iterates my point about you.

#937 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:56 AM

View PostPallid, on 03 June 2014 - 08:49 AM, said:

I'm sorry, there's a case against me in all.that mess?

fire away, ask some clear questions instead of burying us in quotes please, I'm on my.phone and its incrediably frustrating trying to sift through all of it for what you're actually saying.



About 4 posts above, is a post titled "Eloth please answer below" Have a read of that one post please.

You two double teaming towards end of day is a tell.

You're hiding behind confusion to not read up, and you want me to ask questions. Where is your case? Where is your analysis? Who do you think is scum? Why do you think they are scum? Who do you think are their partner? Why do you think they are linked? You know questions that need to be answered.

At least when GL is around he is actively trying to find connections, similar with Barghast.

The three people who are under the most shade from my PoV are Eloth, You and Kaschan.

#938 User is offline   Eloth 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 08:56 AM

@ Denul, I didn't code it in early because I'm not as experienced as others may be. Is that clear enough? I didn't answer this one right away because I wanted to ask if I could answer it the way I just did.

As to your accusations of symping, those early posts were squarely in the "for shits and giggles" category, you can try to read whatever you want in them but it is simply wasting your time. I won't waste mine explaining those kinds of posts.

Pallid is proven town when I CF healer because the idea of scum not only withholding a NK, but me happening to HEAL them on the same night is very very small.

#939 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 09:13 AM

View PostEloth, on 03 June 2014 - 08:56 AM, said:

@ Denul, I didn't code it in early because I'm not as experienced as others may be. Is that clear enough? I didn't answer this one right away because I wanted to ask if I could answer it the way I just did.

As to your accusations of symping, those early posts were squarely in the "for shits and giggles" category, you can try to read whatever you want in them but it is simply wasting your time. I won't waste mine explaining those kinds of posts.

Pallid is proven town when I CF healer because the idea of scum not only withholding a NK, but me happening to HEAL them on the same night is very very small.



So it boils down to trust, if I trust that you are a healer then that would PI Pallid (how convenient) knowing I am town and there are 2 scum left that would make 2 of Barghast, Kaschan and Galayn Lord scum.

So do I trust that you are healer and fucking get a big laugh from everyone for doing so.

You know what? If what you say is true.

Then going today without a lynch may be the best option.

If you die, you are cleared and Pallid is CI.

If Pallid dies, it does throws in an element of doubt tomorrow over you, but if you heal him then he will not die.

I will vote whoever Pallid chooses to. I have said it here on thread.

If Barghast, GL or Kaschan die then the other two are scum.

That is if I trust that you are the healer.

That is why it is huge to trust you!

#940 User is offline   Denul 

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 09:13 AM

@Eloth, pick holes in my argument please.

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