[Alkend]

A few more, since the forum said I had too many quote blocks.

Denul, on 14 March 2014 - 06:41 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 13 March 2014 - 09:46 PM, said:

The original vote for Monok was based on a post about fish-based lubricant that was commented on by Denul. To single that post out, in the middle of a conversation about homosexual were-dolphins, seems a little like cherry-picking.

Likewise, the vote on Rikkter was based on being eager to start and on contributing off-topic discussions.

While I tend to believe Lock when he says he was just trying get conversation started, I also think he is our only realistic lynch target for day. Some of his speculation hinted at having knowledge that the rest of us don't, and seems be trying to make the game more difficult than it is by suggesting that there are multiple factions.

vote Lock

Okaros, on 13 March 2014 - 10:07 PM, said:

I mostly think Lock got his lore mixed up and didn't read the scenes carefully enough, but I agree that his response was less than ideal. None of the current targets are particularly convincing but I am willing to vote Lock to get a lynch, and with the modkill we still need 9 votes out of 15 to lynch, instead of 8 out of 15. So that's the burden of an extra vote that we wouldn't normally need.

For now I'm going to

Remove Vote
Vote Lock

here are the 2 votes directly after Locks post. At this point they have made Lock the only true lynch option with the amount of time remaining.

Denul, on 14 March 2014 - 06:47 PM, said:

Finally, to the posts by Bek and Okaral.

While I didn't think there was much substance to the case by Bek, it did seem like he put in some effort. Whats more interesting to me is the reaction, and the OMGUS case by Okaros. That seems like a huge over reaction and subsequent case for a single case/vote. To me it felt like he was trying to stop any momentum from gaining and did this with a hyper aggressive counter case. This also pinged my scumdar. Certainly it's not scummy to counter a case on yourself, especially if you know you are inno, but the tone and way in which he presented his own case made Okaros come off as defensive in my eyes.

I could see an inheritence mechanic in play and it would make sense given the numbers. That or 2 killers and a single symp perhaps..which I think is more likely. But again, I go back to my belief that we are reading to much into to flavor being presented by PS. I think we are limiting ourselves if we don't explore outside of what has been written in scenes. On a side note, this was a constructive response to a little information prodding I had done. It makes me less suspicious of Kilava. Whereas if Kilava had blown up and come at me with a 500 word counter case and voted me... I would have been much more suspicious of her. Hence my reasons for questioning Okaros in my above posts.
[/quot e]

[Alkend]

Denul, on 14 March 2014 - 11:15 PM, said:

Okaros, on 14 March 2014 - 10:32 PM, said:

Quick comment -

Amp, something has been bugging me about Denul's return, and I think you hit it pretty close. There were a lot of facets of the Lock lynch that Denul almost deliberately skipped over...for instance, when he quoted our posts as the last two that "made the lynch inevitable", I had made two posts in quick succession and he only quoted the second with the vote. In the first I said that Lock was at L-4 and we had around 2 hours left. It was 90 minutes before L-3, and Okral showed up just in time to hammer with only 20 minutes left on the clock. We BARELY got the votes for a lynch - there was no speed lynch or rush at all, we were hurting for people to show up and vote. He also didn't mention that voting was more necessary than before due to the modkill and the extra vote required to achieve "majority", since the modkill altered that. So I think his analysis of the lynch train is poor and shows that he may be trying to steer the thread a bit while leaving a lot of things out.

I want to hear from both Denul and Bek, in regards to Amp's case and mine, respectively.

Incidentally, this is an example of why I think Bek is full of shit when he said that the lynch train wouldn't be useful on day 2. Even if we were somehow unable to gather info directly from the votes and how/when they were made, a lot can be gathered by seeing someone ELSE analyze the lynch train, as I think is happening here with Denul.

I'll comment on this one last time before I am out for the weekend. All I was doing was pointing out who the swing votes were. You and amp have your panties in a bunch because you were the 2. Do I think you are both scum? Probably not, as that would be really bad and overtly obvious play. In and of itself, it means nothing, after all, every lynch, good or bad has a swing point, but it's these kinds of things you can tie together with other things to come up with a good case. As amp pointed out, and as I posted on thread, if I was around I would have been on the train to get a lynch, but the fact remains, we lynched an inno and you 2 were the swing votes.

The other thing Denul does during their posting flurry is analyze the vote train. They do a poor job, since they werent there. Their analysis seems designed to point fingers at as many people as possible. Again, not committing to anything, but possibly sowing seeds to try and reap later.

[Alkend]

So, at this point, Denul`s posting has actually made me more suspicious, which is why I left my vote on Denul. I kept my mouth shut, because I wanted to see where Denul was going to go next.

I was vague for a reason - I wanted to see how they kept at it the next time they were on.

Next Denul action, coming right up. Stay tuned.

[Okaros]

Okral Lom, on 18 March 2014 - 11:14 PM, said:

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 11:01 PM, said:

Okral Lom, on 18 March 2014 - 10:54 PM, said:

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 10:50 PM, said:

Okral Lom, on 18 March 2014 - 10:34 PM, said:

Makes sense.

GL, why are you voting Alkend? I know you think they're scummy but you haven't provided any reasoning that I can other than 'they found my extremely suspicious reveal suspicious'.

Let me ask you - why are you defending him?

How am I defending him? By wanting to know why town should be lynching him, as GL so badly wants to do?

I need to revisit this somewhere not on my phone for accuracy, but it looks like you have been agreeing with him over the last hour and it kind of seems like you're defending him instead of letting him speaks for himself.

You realise that I kinda want to know why people are being lynched before I decide whether or not to vote on them, right?

And yes, we did both agree that GL's reveal was off, and said so. We were apparently wrong, but last time I checked, having the same opinion as someone else in the thread is allowed. Besides, if you want to go along that route, why don't we talk about how you and GL are both "agreeing" that myself and Alkend need to be looked into? Now I know I'm town, so I can tell you that after a suspicious reveal, that culminated in GL not getting lynched or otherwise dying (in spite of his constant comments about the imminence of his death) and a townie who was otherwise not under suspicion in any way or making a lot of noise being killed instead, thus magically leaving GL who caused said townie's death as theoretically PI'd, don't you think maybe I've got a right to a bit of suspicion?

Fair enough; I won't be back for a number of hours most likely but I will address what you said in more detail.

[Okaros]

Alkend, on 18 March 2014 - 11:27 PM, said:

So, at this point, Denul`s posting has actually made me more suspicious, which is why I left my vote on Denul. I kept my mouth shut, because I wanted to see where Denul was going to go next.

I was vague for a reason - I wanted to see how they kept at it the next time they were on.

Next Denul action, coming right up. Stay tuned.

Before I leave - I know I have my vote on you right now, but this is exactly what I (and I suspect others too) are looking for from you, more detail and explanation at a point where keeping quiet is no longer a viable option.

[Alkend]

Ok, they are back and they start a NEW tack - an apparent willingness to do a low poster vote. Yet, of course, they are open to everything else on the table as well (except for self voting of course). More non-committal I can go every-which-way nothingness.

Denul, on 18 March 2014 - 05:34 PM, said:

Wow, not much has happened since i last posted. Based on this alone that makes me want to vote off a low poster. If we get stuck with enough low posters come end game, it never bodes well for town.

With only 5 hours left we don't have much wiggle room. Obviously I am not voting myself. I think the 2 votes on me are interesting. Ampleas in that his is a classic OMGUS vote, and Alkend in that his vote was solely because I was a low poster, but then he kept it there. I can respect that if he thinks I am scum. Though he is waiting for me to further respond, not sure what I am supposed to say. I rebutted amp's "case" as best I could. Ampleas clearly felt threatened by the little pressure I put upon him and that bears looking into down the line. Aftrer all, if you are scum and you can get town to lynch the person that has you pegged, 2 birds, one stone...etc.

That leaves Gaylord, Eloth and Okaros.

I want to hear what Eloth's thoughts are up to this point. I will be around up to lynch, so I am not in a rush to throw a vote with 5 hours remaining. Since he has checked in and will be viewing the thread with a new set of eyes, I'd like his thoughts.

I am going back and will reread the Gaylord/Okaros case

Denul, on 18 March 2014 - 07:41 PM, said:

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 06:42 PM, said:

Okaros, on 15 March 2014 - 01:58 AM, said:

Denul, on 14 March 2014 - 11:15 PM, said:

I'll comment on this one last time before I am out for the weekend. All I was doing was pointing out who the swing votes were. You and amp have your panties in a bunch because you were the 2. Do I think you are both scum? Probably not, as that would be really bad and overtly obvious play. In and of itself, it means nothing, after all, every lynch, good or bad has a swing point, but it's these kinds of things you can tie together with other things to come up with a good case. As amp pointed out, and as I posted on thread, if I was around I would have been on the train to get a lynch, but the fact remains, we lynched an inno and you 2 were the swing votes.

Nah, you just don't have a good grasp of how the lynch went down because you weren't around, that's all. 3 people voted for Monok and disappeared - they never showed up again before timeout. Alkend voted Rikkter and disappeared - never showed up before timeout. Silchas modkilled himself for unknown reasons. That's 5 votes out of 16 completely unavailable, and we needed 9 (NINE) votes to lynch, now with only 15 players without Silchas. So out of the 11 possible people who didn't jump ship before time out, 9 of them had to vote the same person to get a lynch. And 2 players never voted (coincidentally...you and Bek). So we needed ALL REMAINING 9 VOTES to get a lynch. I hope you are getting that this was not easy. With less than 2 hours out of 36 until timeout, Rikkter had 1 vote, Monok had 3, and Lock had 5. There is no fucking swing vote here. Unless other people showed up - which they didn't - it was literally impossible to lynch anyone except Lock, because the numbers were not there. So with about an hour and a half left, I put down the 6th vote, and luckily, Okral showed up and voted with 20 minutes on the clock to get the lynch. Do you see this picture? It was a very long, slow day 1 and most people did not participate; some didn't bother to vote. The Lock train built up in the second half of the day, and while the rest of us waited for you fuckers to show up, we had no choice but to vote Lock or timeout with no lynch.

So, there wasn't a swing vote - unless you count the absence of a vote a "swing vote". That's what you're missing. The only way there could have been a swing vote is if you (or someone else) showed up to vote or switch votes. But no one did. It's a pretty clear picture if you played through it, but I can see how the time-lapse could be confusing if you weren't around. I hope you see the issue more clearly now.

Did you read this? What are your thoughts on the supposed "swing vote" after seeing the day 1 lynch analysis here?

Wow, i did miss that. . I get what you are saying. And you are right it isn't a swing vote in the usual sense of the term. But you had no way of knowing that no one else was going to come back, a little of what you posted above was said with hindsight. But I will concede that it wasn't a typical swing vote based upon how the day unfolded.


I also didn't see that you had said you were going to look at GL. Though saying you are going to look at someone doesn't really change the fact that you have been all over the place with your votes in a one day period. Granted, that doesn't necessarily scream scum as I have also done this in the past, regardless of affiliation. That being said, look at it from my perspective. If you really are inno, how would it look to you if I came in, dropped a vote just because you had the most numbers and bailed? You hedge your vote by saying I look "dodgy" but really it was a number vote. That just didn't sit well with me...but like I mentioned, I might be hyper sensitive because it was me.


Finally, I like your response. If this was the type of response you had given to Bek's case, we probably wouldn't be having this dialogue.

Seeing the error in their train analysis, they gracefully back off. Considering Denul got flack for that from several sources, its the most politic thing to do.

Last part of the case coming.

[Alkend]

Here`s the post that I thought was most interesting.

Denul, on 18 March 2014 - 05:59 PM, said:

Here is what I am talking about with Okaros. Granted, I am probably being sensypoo here because he dropped the vote on me hoping I am the lynch. But, knowing I am town, it seems scummy to me to just drop this vote and say he is bailing and won't be back. If it really was timeout, he is basically making me the lynch. That doesn't sit good with me.

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 07:13 AM, said:

Well, I'm gonna put a vote down in case I don't make it back.

Vote Denul

Because of the way he analyzed the lynch train and I think he's our best chance of getting numbers for a lynch if day times out in 6 hours.

Then PS extends the vote, so he drops the vote on me and tries a different tact. Is it because he is looking at other options, or because no one followed him onto my train?

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 02:41 PM, said:

Whew, a reprieve. I thought for sure we would timeout. So in light of that I am going to

Remove Vote

and look somewhere we haven't looked before.

Galayn Lord, on 17 March 2014 - 02:17 AM, said:

<snip>

Harder to pin down a slider, skating by with a few thoughtful sounding (yet somehow worthless) posts. I think the most damnable post was that middle of the road post, and I'm glad people called him on it, but disappointed we aren't continuing to screw in the tacks.

I think ladies and gents we need to not get caught up in all the shitty SR drama, ignore the bloated egos and hurt prides and get poking at those sitting back and enjoying the show.

Vote Eloth

Underlined above is mine. This is GL's third and most recent post in almost an entire RL week of the game. That makes him the lowest poster by far and he drops in with a single vote and some analysis and leaves again. In particular, above, he suggests that we "get poking at those sitting back and enjoying the show." Quite astute, as GL is the most guilty of this out of everyone playing. His attempt to divide the lynch targets into his two groups is striking me wrongly right now, and there really isn't much in his "case" to go on...his reasoning is basically "look at people who voted on the train, one of may be scum" or "let's look at 'sliders'" as he says.

Now, I certainly would like to hear more from Eloth, I don't think he has posted in a good while? But GL falls into one of his own categories for sure (sliding right along) and he voted for Monok, but wasn't on the lynch train or around to vote later (nice self-separation from category 1). Reading his post right now sounds like scum laying low and popping up to add "content" but basically adds no new information at all. He quotes the lynch train, says very little about it, then votes for Eloth for playing middle of the road. Well, we have like half the damn players playing the exact same way, including GL, so his analysis points back to himself if anything.

Vote Galayn Lord

Because one reasonable sounding post as the lowest poster in the game does not a town player make. It'd be nice to hear from him, too.

He is quickly followed by Kesso which set off some alarm bells. Counter point though, Kesso makes some good points, and if he wasn't following Okaros I would probably have already voted for GL by this point.

Kessobahn, on 18 March 2014 - 03:06 PM, said:

All right, I'm read up fully now and honestly, neither the Denul or Eloth cases have much basis. As I understand it, Denul's is based on him being a low poster, then jumping in posts to be a medium posters over a short period of time. I've actually done this multiple times, with no correlation to my alignment, and have gotten flak for being scummy because of it each time. So I think the whole "jumping in post count" scum tell is less accurate than we think. Eloth's case actually seems to have basis only in the fact that he's being a low poster, and it's ironically posted by another relatively low poster. Now, as someone who rarely is anywhere near the top in post count, I can't really vote on the basis of low posting. Of course Galayn Lord, who voted Eloth, has a bit of an odd post where he outlines his suspicions before voting, which I just want to post here:

Galayn Lord, on 17 March 2014 - 02:17 AM, said:

-snip-

AND back to the game. Scum probably doesn't have to work hard with the implosions exploding everywhere. I think we need to put pressure on two groups: the voters and the sliders.

The lynch train (Kilava, Kessobahn, Rikkter, Tiamatha, Ampelas, Okaros, Eloth, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom), for all the talk, has hardly been analyzed and I see a lot of dodgy language from those who were on it (e.g. Amp and Kesso). But another who grabbed my attention was Tiamatha, doubting having another dead on day one after the mod-kill, but not really avoiding the opportunity of planting Lock in the ground.

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 06:50 PM, said:

Well now I have to ask the question. Do we want to potentially lynch a towny on top of losing one town member today. Putting us down a probable 3 town players going into the start of day 2. Or do we want to eat the modkill and try to figure out connections with out a day 1 lynch?

In the sliders category, I am looking at Eloth, what little there is.

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 09:23 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 09:21 PM, said:

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 08:54 PM, said:

I have no real preference between Lock and Monok and Rikkter. Lock's talk was confusing and muddled and the book talk after doesn't really help his case, but then Lock could just as easily be a confused and muddled person.


With Monok and Rikkter, there's even less there, other than the feeling that because day 1 lynch choices have been so spot on in some recent games (usually through sheer luck), that we could do worse than with going with the first choices on the menu!

Now that is some informed, logical reasoning if I ever did do some!

Nice middle of the road post.

I do agree that there isn't really any distinction between the three. However I feel that Lock's posts after his claw post smacks of desperation.

Vote Lock

Thanks. Middle of the road on day 1 when you don't know shit seems sensible to me

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 10:13 PM, said:

Kilava, on 13 March 2014 - 10:10 PM, said:

Okaros, on 13 March 2014 - 09:54 PM, said:

So where are we right now, Lock at L-4? About 2 hours till timeout?

Yes L-3 now and 92 minutes left

Make that L-2.


Vote Lock

Harder to pin down a slider, skating by with a few thoughtful sounding (yet somehow worthless) posts. I think the most damnable post was that middle of the road post, and I'm glad people called him on it, but disappointed we aren't continuing to screw in the tacks.

I think ladies and gents we need to not get caught up in all the shitty SR drama, ignore the bloated egos and hurt prides and get poking at those sitting back and enjoying the show.

Vote Eloth

So GL puts suspicion on four separate people, out of the remaining 13, which many people believe is the number of scum. Of course, since I'm on that list, and I know for a fact I'm town, it seems to me like GL is setting up possible compromise lynch targets for the rest of the game. Who would put four different targets out there as suspicious, but instead of exploring each of them (he doesn't even quote mine and Amp's so called "dodgy language"), he goes on to vote Eloth for simply being a low poster. That doesn't sit right with me. If Amp, Tiam and myself are all suspicious due to actual evidence, then why go after Eloth, who's only sin is being a low poster? I don't like this post, seems too much like scum setting up targets so he can vote them later in the game without garnering suspicion. I know this evidence isn't particularly strong, but the post itself has my gut scumdar going crazy.

I'm going to be clear here, this is not an OMGUS vote, but a vote based on gut and this post which doesn't sit right with me.

Vote Galayn Lord.

So I guess it boils down to how I feel about Okaros. He was one of the swing votes on the Lock train. He has a huge OMGUS case on Bek that I feel was an abnormal reaction to a little bit of pressure. He then changes tact and attacks me, drops a vote and leaves the thread around what he thought was timeout, effectively making me the only feasible lynch option, when his second vote isn't followed he tries a new tact and goes after Gaylan lord. He does gain a little traction with the Gaylord case and is followed by Kesso, but imo Kesso makes good points independant of Okaros' case so that doesn't necessarily tie him to Okaros.

These little things just keep adding up. I know I am setting myself up for a rebuttal vote from Okaros here, but his play, to me, has been the most scummy so far.


Regarding the Gaylyn lord votes, like I said, Kesso made some good points, but he is following Okaros who I feel is playing scum like. This makes me hesitant to place a vote on gaylord. I would like to hear what others have to say in the next couple hours. I'll then drop a vote with 1-2 hours till timeout so we can discuss more. At this point I am leaning Okaros.

Ok, we get it. Kesso makes good points. Oh, and Kesso makes good points. And Kesso makes good points.

Three times mentioned, each time with the caveat that "if it werent for suspiciously following Okaros". This is just too weird to not stand out and in my mind, it speaks to three possibilities.

1) Denul is Kessos symp, and this is signaling.
2) Denul and Kesso are killer partners, and this is on thread distancing by obvious referencing.
3) Denul is scum, and is setting up Kesso.

If 1 or 2 are the truth, then Kesso is the place to vote first, although the possibility of #3 is worrisome. What I need to do now, is go back and read Kesso`s contributions, which I honestly dont really remember.

[Alkend]

Kessobahn, on 18 March 2014 - 03:06 PM, said:

All right, I'm read up fully now and honestly, neither the Denul or Eloth cases have much basis. As I understand it, Denul's is based on him being a low poster, then jumping in posts to be a medium posters over a short period of time. I've actually done this multiple times, with no correlation to my alignment, and have gotten flak for being scummy because of it each time. So I think the whole "jumping in post count" scum tell is less accurate than we think. Eloth's case actually seems to have basis only in the fact that he's being a low poster, and it's ironically posted by another relatively low poster. Now, as someone who rarely is anywhere near the top in post count, I can't really vote on the basis of low posting. Of course Galayn Lord, who voted Eloth, has a bit of an odd post where he outlines his suspicions before voting, which I just want to post here:

Galayn Lord, on 17 March 2014 - 02:17 AM, said:

-snip-

AND back to the game. Scum probably doesn't have to work hard with the implosions exploding everywhere. I think we need to put pressure on two groups: the voters and the sliders.

The lynch train (Kilava, Kessobahn, Rikkter, Tiamatha, Ampelas, Okaros, Eloth, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom), for all the talk, has hardly been analyzed and I see a lot of dodgy language from those who were on it (e.g. Amp and Kesso). But another who grabbed my attention was Tiamatha, doubting having another dead on day one after the mod-kill, but not really avoiding the opportunity of planting Lock in the ground.

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 06:50 PM, said:

Well now I have to ask the question. Do we want to potentially lynch a towny on top of losing one town member today. Putting us down a probable 3 town players going into the start of day 2. Or do we want to eat the modkill and try to figure out connections with out a day 1 lynch?

In the sliders category, I am looking at Eloth, what little there is.

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 09:23 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 09:21 PM, said:

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 08:54 PM, said:

I have no real preference between Lock and Monok and Rikkter. Lock's talk was confusing and muddled and the book talk after doesn't really help his case, but then Lock could just as easily be a confused and muddled person.


With Monok and Rikkter, there's even less there, other than the feeling that because day 1 lynch choices have been so spot on in some recent games (usually through sheer luck), that we could do worse than with going with the first choices on the menu!

Now that is some informed, logical reasoning if I ever did do some!

Nice middle of the road post.

I do agree that there isn't really any distinction between the three. However I feel that Lock's posts after his claw post smacks of desperation.

Vote Lock

Thanks. Middle of the road on day 1 when you don't know shit seems sensible to me

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 10:13 PM, said:

Kilava, on 13 March 2014 - 10:10 PM, said:

Okaros, on 13 March 2014 - 09:54 PM, said:

So where are we right now, Lock at L-4? About 2 hours till timeout?

Yes L-3 now and 92 minutes left

Make that L-2.


Vote Lock

Harder to pin down a slider, skating by with a few thoughtful sounding (yet somehow worthless) posts. I think the most damnable post was that middle of the road post, and I'm glad people called him on it, but disappointed we aren't continuing to screw in the tacks.

I think ladies and gents we need to not get caught up in all the shitty SR drama, ignore the bloated egos and hurt prides and get poking at those sitting back and enjoying the show.

Vote Eloth

So GL puts suspicion on four separate people, out of the remaining 13, which many people believe is the number of scum. Of course, since I'm on that list, and I know for a fact I'm town, it seems to me like GL is setting up possible compromise lynch targets for the rest of the game. Who would put four different targets out there as suspicious, but instead of exploring each of them (he doesn't even quote mine and Amp's so called "dodgy language"), he goes on to vote Eloth for simply being a low poster. That doesn't sit right with me. If Amp, Tiam and myself are all suspicious due to actual evidence, then why go after Eloth, who's only sin is being a low poster? I don't like this post, seems too much like scum setting up targets so he can vote them later in the game without garnering suspicion. I know this evidence isn't particularly strong, but the post itself has my gut scumdar going crazy.

I'm going to be clear here, this is not an OMGUS vote, but a vote based on gut and this post which doesn't sit right with me.

Vote Galayn Lord.

Kessobahn, on 18 March 2014 - 05:54 PM, said:

Denul, on 18 March 2014 - 05:42 PM, said:

Good post by Kesso and his reasoning for voting Gaylyn Lord. It makes sense, my only reservation is that he is following Okaros in a case and Okaros continues to do dodgy things, in my eyes.

You make a good point. But for me, since I'm leaning towards the opinion that Okaros and Bek are just two townies who have a mutual distrust and can't really get along, instead of either of them being scum. Of course, that's always subject to change, but for now that's how i see it.

Well, here we go. Kesso defends Denul directly before he launches his Galayn Lord case.

And then we get some direct interaction with an affirmation that Okaros and Bek are townies (for the second time Kesso brings this up). This conversation sounds suspiciously fabricated.

[Alkend]

Vote Kessobahn

[Kessobahn]

Alkend, on 18 March 2014 - 11:48 PM, said:

Kessobahn, on 18 March 2014 - 03:06 PM, said:

All right, I'm read up fully now and honestly, neither the Denul or Eloth cases have much basis. As I understand it, Denul's is based on him being a low poster, then jumping in posts to be a medium posters over a short period of time. I've actually done this multiple times, with no correlation to my alignment, and have gotten flak for being scummy because of it each time. So I think the whole "jumping in post count" scum tell is less accurate than we think. Eloth's case actually seems to have basis only in the fact that he's being a low poster, and it's ironically posted by another relatively low poster. Now, as someone who rarely is anywhere near the top in post count, I can't really vote on the basis of low posting. Of course Galayn Lord, who voted Eloth, has a bit of an odd post where he outlines his suspicions before voting, which I just want to post here:

Galayn Lord, on 17 March 2014 - 02:17 AM, said:

-snip-

AND back to the game. Scum probably doesn't have to work hard with the implosions exploding everywhere. I think we need to put pressure on two groups: the voters and the sliders.

The lynch train (Kilava, Kessobahn, Rikkter, Tiamatha, Ampelas, Okaros, Eloth, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom), for all the talk, has hardly been analyzed and I see a lot of dodgy language from those who were on it (e.g. Amp and Kesso). But another who grabbed my attention was Tiamatha, doubting having another dead on day one after the mod-kill, but not really avoiding the opportunity of planting Lock in the ground.

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 06:50 PM, said:

Well now I have to ask the question. Do we want to potentially lynch a towny on top of losing one town member today. Putting us down a probable 3 town players going into the start of day 2. Or do we want to eat the modkill and try to figure out connections with out a day 1 lynch?

In the sliders category, I am looking at Eloth, what little there is.

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 09:23 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 09:21 PM, said:

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 08:54 PM, said:

I have no real preference between Lock and Monok and Rikkter. Lock's talk was confusing and muddled and the book talk after doesn't really help his case, but then Lock could just as easily be a confused and muddled person.


With Monok and Rikkter, there's even less there, other than the feeling that because day 1 lynch choices have been so spot on in some recent games (usually through sheer luck), that we could do worse than with going with the first choices on the menu!

Now that is some informed, logical reasoning if I ever did do some!

Nice middle of the road post.

I do agree that there isn't really any distinction between the three. However I feel that Lock's posts after his claw post smacks of desperation.

Vote Lock

Thanks. Middle of the road on day 1 when you don't know shit seems sensible to me

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 10:13 PM, said:

Kilava, on 13 March 2014 - 10:10 PM, said:

Okaros, on 13 March 2014 - 09:54 PM, said:

So where are we right now, Lock at L-4? About 2 hours till timeout?

Yes L-3 now and 92 minutes left

Make that L-2.


Vote Lock

Harder to pin down a slider, skating by with a few thoughtful sounding (yet somehow worthless) posts. I think the most damnable post was that middle of the road post, and I'm glad people called him on it, but disappointed we aren't continuing to screw in the tacks.

I think ladies and gents we need to not get caught up in all the shitty SR drama, ignore the bloated egos and hurt prides and get poking at those sitting back and enjoying the show.

Vote Eloth

So GL puts suspicion on four separate people, out of the remaining 13, which many people believe is the number of scum. Of course, since I'm on that list, and I know for a fact I'm town, it seems to me like GL is setting up possible compromise lynch targets for the rest of the game. Who would put four different targets out there as suspicious, but instead of exploring each of them (he doesn't even quote mine and Amp's so called "dodgy language"), he goes on to vote Eloth for simply being a low poster. That doesn't sit right with me. If Amp, Tiam and myself are all suspicious due to actual evidence, then why go after Eloth, who's only sin is being a low poster? I don't like this post, seems too much like scum setting up targets so he can vote them later in the game without garnering suspicion. I know this evidence isn't particularly strong, but the post itself has my gut scumdar going crazy.

I'm going to be clear here, this is not an OMGUS vote, but a vote based on gut and this post which doesn't sit right with me.

Vote Galayn Lord.

Kessobahn, on 18 March 2014 - 05:54 PM, said:

Denul, on 18 March 2014 - 05:42 PM, said:

Good post by Kesso and his reasoning for voting Gaylyn Lord. It makes sense, my only reservation is that he is following Okaros in a case and Okaros continues to do dodgy things, in my eyes.

You make a good point. But for me, since I'm leaning towards the opinion that Okaros and Bek are just two townies who have a mutual distrust and can't really get along, instead of either of them being scum. Of course, that's always subject to change, but for now that's how i see it.

Well, here we go. Kesso defends Denul directly before he launches his Galayn Lord case.

And then we get some direct interaction with an affirmation that Okaros and Bek are townies (for the second time Kesso brings this up). This conversation sounds suspiciously fabricated.

Ok. So let me go through each reason you're voting me for:

1. Denul says I have a good point like 3 times. Yes, I can see why that is suspicious, but as Okral Lom said not even a page ago about you two:

Okral Lom, on 18 March 2014 - 11:14 PM, said:

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 11:01 PM, said:

I need to revisit this somewhere not on my phone for accuracy, but it looks like you have been agreeing with him over the last hour and it kind of seems like you're defending him instead of letting him speaks for himself.

You realise that I kinda want to know why people are being lynched before I decide whether or not to vote on them, right?

And yes, we did both agree that GL's reveal was off, and said so. We were apparently wrong, but last time I checked, having the same opinion as someone else in the thread is allowed. Besides, if you want to go along that route, why don't we talk about how you and GL are both "agreeing" that myself and Alkend need to be looked into? Now I know I'm town, so I can tell you that after a suspicious reveal, that culminated in GL not getting lynched or otherwise dying (in spite of his constant comments about the imminence of his death) and a townie who was otherwise not under suspicion in any way or making a lot of noise being killed instead, thus magically leaving GL who caused said townie's death as theoretically PI'd, don't you think maybe I've got a right to a bit of suspicion?

So Denul agreeing with me isn't any more a reason to vote me than it would be for me to vote Okral based on you two agreeing, or voting Okaros based on him and Gaylord agreeing.

2. I "defended" Denul before making a case on Gaylord. Once again, apparently Okral Lom defended you, so what makes your case any more substantial than the one on you?

3. You say Denul is either symp and I'm scum, we're both killers, or I'm being setup. I can't really defend against this one, but I assure you I am town.

So all in all, your case is pretty flimsy. Your points about Denul are interesting, with the whole wishy-washy behavior, doing a whole lot of posting with little content, etc, but I don't see why with all of that evidence against Denul, and only a flimsy case against me, you vote for me. A bit odd imo.

[Galayn Lord]

Just like breakfast is the most important meal of the day, the same could be said for Day 1. I'm going to point out a lot of questionable behavior, so don't get in a tizzy about me pointing many fingers and mucking up the thread. I'm just putting these into the public record.

Firstly, now that we have Fid and Hedge established, what other sappers are there? If none, then why does Eloth use the word "mined" if not to set himself up as a town role?

Eloth, on 12 March 2014 - 11:50 AM, said:

What up?

I can't remember the last time we had an actual Malazan-based game. The material really should be mined more often.

Again, I want to point out Tiam's question about lynching. I want to remind the audience that at this time Monock Ochem was on the gibbet at the time along side Rikkter (and thanks to a little grease in the wheels, was moving faster than Rikky to the rope). To support this idea, Tiam also was the one to start in on Lock, the winner of the day 1 festivities.

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 06:50 PM, said:

Well now I have to ask the question. Do we want to potentially lynch a towny on top of losing one town member today. Putting us down a probable 3 town players going into the start of day 2. Or do we want to eat the modkill and try to figure out connections with out a day 1 lynch?

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 07:17 PM, said:

I haven't seen any mention of the claw so far in this game up until now. The post by Lock strikes me as someone who knows something. While it has been a while since I last read GOTM I don't believe that there are actual claw assassins in the book. There were Andii assassins but those are later in the story then Pale. There was Lorn but she wasn't a claw she was an Adjunt. Now I am really curious about the mention of the claw.

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 09:21 PM, said:

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 08:54 PM, said:

I have no real preference between Lock and Monok and Rikkter. Lock's talk was confusing and muddled and the book talk after doesn't really help his case, but then Lock could just as easily be a confused and muddled person.


With Monok and Rikkter, there's even less there, other than the feeling that because day 1 lynch choices have been so spot on in some recent games (usually through sheer luck), that we could do worse than with going with the first choices on the menu!

Now that is some informed, logical reasoning if I ever did do some!

Nice middle of the road post.

I do agree that there isn't really any distinction between the three. However I feel that Lock's posts after his claw post smacks of desperation.

Vote Lock

Also notable in the last of the 3 quotes is Tiam's jibe at Eloth's middle of the road post. Not something scum team mates would do in my opinion, so I think those two suspects can be put in different bins.

If we want to also look more into the "derailment" of a really really really flimsy case on MO, look no farther than Amp, who backs the switch to Lock, casting additional doubt on the worthwhileness of pressuring MO. But granted, this was when Lock was already gathering heat like a streaker on the Miami basketball court.

Ampelas, on 13 March 2014 - 09:46 PM, said:

The original vote for Monok was based on a post about fish-based lubricant that was commented on by Denul. To single that post out, in the middle of a conversation about homosexual were-dolphins, seems a little like cherry-picking.

Likewise, the vote on Rikkter was based on being eager to start and on contributing off-topic discussions.

While I tend to believe Lock when he says he was just trying get conversation started, I also think he is our only realistic lynch target for day. Some of his speculation hinted at having knowledge that the rest of us don't, and seems be trying to make the game more difficult than it is by suggesting that there are multiple factions.

vote Lock

So my conclusions on Day 1 were that MO still had potential to be a scum master getting a little protection from his minion(s)/partner while he himself laid low. The move to Lock seemed too sudden and strong, and now knowing he was town, makes such a train all that more suspicious. Again here is that train (and with analysis for my detractors):

Kilava, Kessobahn, Rikkter, Tiamatha, Ampelas, Okaros, Eloth, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom

Green is proven inno. Pink is suspected Symp. Red is suspected killer. And blue is current low suspicions in my books for now. Black, haven't got to yet....

You will note that Tiam is the tie breaker so to speak since MO garnered a total of 3 votes. The train also tangentially puts a question mark over Mr. Queso, but again, will get back to him later.

Also, Eloth potentially setting up to fake a role was suspicious, which will bring us neatly into Day 2.

[Galayn Lord]

Day 2 was a tough one, due to the lack of progression on cases and large scale sniping at Denul while Okkie and Bek had their rumble on the streets below. I would like to point out that I am doing what Denul was doing on Day 2 right now. I don't think the disjointedness, nor the lack of a clear target necessarily means wasting time or scummy behavior. And the people who were most the heaviest Denul detractors were those on that lynch train (interestingly enough), as if they thought that the speed and difficulty with which it was put together removed suspicion from their names. Sorry Amp, Okkie, and Kesso, dem's the breaks.

So Denul starts heaping up the votes (kind of like the direction of today oddly enough) and Okkie's main redeeming grace is he switches his votes and reconsiders and talks out his reasoning. And Okkie brings up a good point when justifying the lynch train: several people not on the train voted and disappeared, such as Alkend (currently one of the more suspicious characters in our line up) or Korbas. In fact, Alkend himself is playing pretty sparsely at this point, and even voted Denul long before any reasoning (other than lubrication) came into play.

Alkend, on 14 March 2014 - 12:51 AM, said:

Well, so much for my case.

Anyways, early Day 2 and I want some low posters to talk.

Denul, Mr. Lubricant himself, has 2 posts. About lubricant.

Vote Denul

The worst part is, Alkend was voting for what I assumed to be the symp not the master. Like he wasn't even paying attention..... (although hiding behind a low poster hunt, so maybe some attention).

Denul, on 14 March 2014 - 06:53 AM, said:

Hey, guys. Checking in. Unfortunately my low posting will continue for the next 8 hrs. I did say it would happen in sign ups. I should be back in 8-9 hours to catch up and get my thoughts on thread. I haven't even had a chance to read up since my last post. Such is life. Completely understand if I am in line for a lynch. But I will be more active in the coming week. Back in 8-9. Gotta run.

The line "completely understand if I am in line for a lynch" would be odd for a scum master don't you think? I dunno, I just think that someone with power would at least sound more urgent about their possibility of going down in flames unless they were trying to be suave to deflect attention (and Denul is NOT suave).

Denul, on 14 March 2014 - 06:19 PM, said:

OK, I am all caught up. I have a few quotes to comment on. First;

Okral Lom, on 13 March 2014 - 04:16 PM, said:

Silchas Ruin, on 12 March 2014 - 08:55 PM, said:

Back.

Anyone up for a few card games? I've got me Deck o' Dragons right here in me pocket.

Well it's tenuous at best, but the only thing really game related that stuck out at me is this. Either it's just RP or Silchas is trying to set themselves up as Fiddler.

Can't believe no one brought this up... Why would someone try and out someone setting themselves up as Fiddler? Even if you notice it, you keep it to yourselves and hope scum don't notice. This post set off some alarm bells.

Ouch, a really good point by Denul. Against one of the people we still know next to nothing about, but who seems to be backing up Alkend right now, Okral Lom. The only reason I bring up Eloth at this point is my increased confidence that there are only two sappers among the ranks of BBs, and he's not one of them...

------

And not quite through Day 2, but I think we are seeing the emergence of another set of suspicious peoples, this time including those I fingered in my earlier, pre-almost-hanged post: Amp, Kesso, Alkend and Okral Lom.

I know, I know, I've pretty much thrown out everyone as suspects but bear with me. I will get to the point in the next point or two. Remaining of Day 2, next post.

[Galayn Lord]

Now to the most important part of Day 2, me. Okaros bring up my case and vote on Eloth and says that I got the wrong low poster, and votes for me. That point onwards it is one vote after another until I thankfully come to my own rescue and with the patience and caution of those waiting for my demise, was able to talk/reveal myself out of a lynch (the Weasel would be proud).

Around this time, Eloth waxes eloquent, with a lot of great, and subtle, observations and thoughts. I actually think that if Eloth is town, paying heed to his thoughts will net town the win (if he's scum, MOM for him, with a tattooed heart and everything). I would need another post to review his thoughts, so I will just finish my timeline and summary.

So I dodge a lynch. Yeah me. And then Kiliva dies. All the while, there is an outcry about my near escape, primarily from Alkend and OL. Amp is a bit cagey too. However, in addition to Kiliva, Okaros and Eloth have thrown in whole-hearted support of my stance. Now this portion of the game is starting to differentiate all those suspects for me.

Alkend: yelling at me, charging ahead with Denul and then switching to Kesso, all this behavior has made me rethink my stance on him. He is too single-minded, abrasive and mule-stubborn to be killer. Maybe symp, doubt it though... will remove my vote.

OL: My suspicion of OL has morphed into some new reasons. What about fake symping the unsympathetic Alkend? What about mis/redirection, etc. I still think he's likely scum, but not killer (although, death of Alkend with a townie CF would clear OL).

Ampelas: I am increasingly swayed by Eloth's viewpoints here. Amp is bursting with tension, but seems well intentioned in some respects. Not to be ignored, but not super supicious, yet, for me.

Kesso: Along the same lines as Amp, seemed passionate, overly defensive, but I don't have a great read yet. I need to go back and review his case more.

Which brings me to my chief suspects:

MO: Where the hell did this eel get to? And if I am right, and day 1 was more about not letting MO get lynched just for the hell of it (which would have happened without a better option), MO is a big fish. A very quiet, not present big fish.

Tiam: MO's symp maybe? Tiam has also done a disappearing act, without MO being in need of help, and maybe the second killer off the radar, Tiam can take a break, lie low, and wait for town to shake itself to bits. Scum has us by the balls. It is now a waiting game for them.

Korbas: Seriously, out of the blue? Yes, out of the blue. He is totally middle roading it. Carefully posting and doing the WCS stats (always a bad sign in my books). Kind of an underwhelming player, one who you can ask yourself "what did he do again?" Off the radar, probably right smack dab in the middle of the post count. Scum. My reread made me that much more certain.




And a side reminder: where is BO? And don't forget the best townies are the best scum. I like Eloth's warnings about Okkie, and agree, especially after this post:

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 10:21 PM, said:

Okral Lom, on 18 March 2014 - 10:20 PM, said:

Kilava, on 18 March 2014 - 10:10 PM, said:

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 10:07 PM, said:

Eloth, on 18 March 2014 - 10:05 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 18 March 2014 - 10:03 PM, said:

Yeah, it's kind of strange. I was just waiting for you to get in hot water. Otherwise, as I said, I was bored. And sorry for my reading miss comprehension under pressure. I saw the line "It would sure be nice hearing from you" in big blue letters and though I was being asked to pipe up. Oops.

Ahahahaha, that is really facepalmingly funny if true

I lol'd at this as well, looking back it definitely looks like Kilava could have been pushing for the reveal from GL's perspective.

Well I was hoping for a reveal, character name if not full PM - never dreamt he'd name me on thread though as I say never considered town symp. I'm Kalam and I've got a vig for instance would have been nice, or I'm Hedge and I know where Fiddler is on the lynch train and think he should reconsider style of thing

See this post makes me uncomfortable. So you didn't know that he knew who you are? And you're calling it a town symp? Lover roles I could understand. Especially in a game where it's stated:

Path-Shaper, on 12 March 2014 - 08:54 AM, said:

Core Set Up:

This is a Town versus Scum game. There are no roles that you will be unfamiliar with. Town need to eliminate scum. Scum need to reach a parity with town. TMDi 4

Days will be 36 hours. Nights will resolve when actions are in and/or a mod is available (no longer than 12 hours).

Reveals welcome do not quote your PM.

Now while I'm no aged mafia player who's been here since the first game, I'm pretty sure a "town symp" is not a familiar role.

Now I'm not completely convinced about this but it looks to me like Ampelas and Kilava are scum with GL as symp.

Before we hit night, everyone take a long look at this post, think about what GL revealed, what Kilava said, and why I believe them.

We can't discount anyone, except me of course

Edit: Chief suspects needed Red color.

This post has been edited by Galayn Lord: 19 March 2014 - 02:38 AM

[Galayn Lord]

Remove Vote

Vote MO

Let's finish this like we should have on Day 1 motherfucker.

[Alkend]

Well Kesso, I do think Denul comes across scummier than you do.

[Kessobahn]

Alkend, on 19 March 2014 - 03:34 AM, said:

Well Kesso, I do think Denul comes across scummier than you do.

Then why vote me?

[Bek Okhan]

Galayn Lord, on 18 March 2014 - 10:32 PM, said:

There you go. Wrong proof (i would that it had been me who died for him) but sigh. Here's a toast to you bro.

And

Vote Alkend

Ehm. This might be wifom as I will be questioning killer logic, but to me, there's a problem with your vote.
If Alkend is a killer who has been harping on not believing the reveal on thread most vehemently... why would he then off Kilava, in the knowledge that if Kilava was indeed Fiddler, fingers would point at him?

I'm not saying we shouldn't vote Alkend at all, but I do think he's not privy to killer decision making because this course of action exposes him way too much to be an intelligent, careful play. He might still be a symp, of course.

[Path-Shaper]

Fiddler's death scene has been added.


It is day three: 24 hours 40 minutes remaining

12 players still alive; Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okaros, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to night


1 Vote for Alkend; (Okaros)
1 Vote for Kessobahn; (Alkend)
1 Vote for Monok Ochem; (Galayn Lord)




Players not voted; Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Kessobahn, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 19 March 2014 - 09:46 AM

[Bek Okhan]

Galayn Lord, on 19 March 2014 - 02:39 AM, said:

Remove Vote

Vote MO

Let's finish this like we should have on Day 1 motherfucker.

This is something I could get behind.
However, if you suspect MO + Korabas + Tiamatha, why not vote the guys with the higher commitment first - with MO's timeframe there might be a chance he doesn't anticipate the thread correctly anyway.

To support your case on Tiamatha: on day 1, Eloth suggests MO, Rikkter and Lock are roughly equal. Tiam comes on, agrees and votes Lock. Rikkter dies at night. MO lives. Coincidence or set-up by Tiam (and Eloth)?
Equally, it could be scum expects MO to be lynched eventually so not waste a kill on him. After all, even if he is town, we're playing with him included in the numbers but in on-thread presence, we're playing like we're an extra guy down.


On Korabas, some additional circumstantial reasoning:

Korabas, on 14 March 2014 - 06:16 PM, said:

Kilava, on 14 March 2014 - 09:12 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 13 March 2014 - 06:42 PM, said:

Silchas has been modkilled for quoting his role pm.

Path-Shaper, on 13 March 2014 - 11:28 PM, said:

Lock is dead. She was Picker, Dolmen Weeks and town.

Path-Shaper, on 13 March 2014 - 11:43 PM, said:

Rikkter is dead. He was Sergeant Whiskeyjack, Macros and Town

3 town down in a day that is not the best of starts in history.

Assuming 4 scum it's now 9-4

Locks play makes sense now we know it was Dolmen, rookie mistake in a book-themed game talking about something not explicitly mentioned already. I don't see anything in the OP about how much CF information we get so I guess we won't know if we lynch town roled or not but I had WJ down as a role if anyone was.

Why in the world would you assume 4 scum? Usually ratio is 3 town to 1 scum. In a 16 player game, 3 scum would be plenty. You working with extra information?

Then later, he gets in a debate with me over math - twice he gets it wrong. Now, I had a little thought about this. After all, when in doubt, take the higher number into account. Korabas twice suggests the math rate of 3 to 1 yet twice fails to calculate it correctly, twice he also doesn't elaborate, and says 3 scum is plenty. It might be, depending on set-up. He doesn't make that connotation.

1. we play a Malazan themed game with role names => a symp would be instantly recognized and therefore would hardly be able to masquerade as town on CF => can't really symp his masters. That's a design factor and the obvious solution is: don't include a symp. What then? Well, role all scum.

2. But.... we play a town that's likely fairly low on roles. I have name that I 95% expected to be powered even in TMDI 4, I am an RI instead.
As such, killers plus scum guard(s) doesn't make sense because there's probably very little to be guarded. Also, a guard can guard the killers, which works to their detriment.

3. With that in mind, logic suggests killer triplets without a symp. It is pretty powerful, allows coördination and yet makes clear to scum that's all they're working with. In turn, town knowing some other townies would create another fragmented knowledge base.


So, what if Korabas worked from what is a given to him, but theory to the rest of us?
It wouldn't be the first time that math was molded to suit facts, and it would be the kind of slip scum could make.

[Bek Okhan]

So, from the above, I'd suggest voting Tiamatha (who completely escaped my radar so far) or Korabas instead of MO.

Vote Korabas.

Because Tiamatha completely escaped me, MO is hardly around and thus hard to have feelings on, and Korabas tickled me the wrong way the most from amidst them.

edit to bold vote.

This post has been edited by Bek Okhan: 19 March 2014 - 09:59 AM