[Werthead]

Interesting analysis on the drone war, concluding that Ukraine has achieved a significant material and quantitative advantage over Russia. It points out that 7 million drones produced this year will likely mean over 10 million in 2027, and 10 million per year is when Ukraine believes it can start retaking significant territory.

In particular, it identifies March 2026 as a key month when Ukraine carried out more drone and missile attacks on Russian soil - 7,300 - than Russia carried out on Ukrainian - 6,400. The next key moment may come when the Russian Northern Fleet base at Severomorsk enters strike range (they're not far off now).

There is also now a growing analysis, even backed up by some Russian milbloggers, that Russia's spring 2026 offensive has been halted in its tracks even as it started, and Russian military commanders are now starting to really get into a tailspin. Some strategic reserves of equipment and troops for the summer campaign have already been deployed to meet the Ukrainian counter-thrusts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and to reinforce the central Donetsk push around Pokrovsk. These are the forces that were not supposed to be engaged for another 2-4 months, and using them was meant to avoid a major Russian mobilisation this year. Them being depleted now puts Putin in a difficult position. Mobilisation against a backdrop of cutting off the internet and public demonstrations against that (though modest so far) could create a flashpoint Putin wants to avoid. Russian recruitment is also apparently down 20% on last year, whilst casualties are significantly up.

There also appears to now be a deficit in the Russian workforce of around 3 million people, and by 2030 that could hit 11 million, with massive economic damage to the country as the inevitable result.

They also analyse Ukraine's weaknesses and confirm the country has its own manpower and recruitment problems. However, they concur with the general assessment that Ukraine's position is much stronger than it was 18 months ago (when things looked shaky for a while) and that Ukraine taking the lead in both air and ground drones is a decisive shift that Russia does not look able to replicate.

Putin has at least resurfaced, greeting Iran's foreign minister in St. Petersburg.

Russian tanks are being used on the front again, possibly out of desperation. We have some of the first footage for some considerable time of Javelins being used to eliminate them.

Current assessment is that Ukrainian forces may have reached Krashnohirske, Berezove and Vorone, leaving Russia with the barest of toeholds in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Berezove may be their last significant holding in the entire oblast. Ukrainian forces further south and north-east have already crossed the oblast border and driven Russian forces back into Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces have negotiated a withdrawal of their forces from the northern Malian city of Kidal, sparking fury in the government, which has said that "Russia has betrayed us." The move came after rebel drones hit several Russian targets around Kidal and destroyed them.

[Cause]

When this war is over arms may become Ukraines top industry. Probably won’t even have to scale down production. Most of Europe, USA, Israel, the gulf states will likely all be customers

[Werthead]

Cause, on 27 April 2026 - 09:44 PM, said:

When this war is over arms may become Ukraines top industry. Probably won’t even have to scale down production. Most of Europe, USA, Israel, the gulf states will likely all be customers

Ukraine can't scale down. They need to maintain this level of arms output, potentially indefinitely, because scaling up to it again mid-invasion took too long and was too hard. They need to keep at this level by basically turning into the biggest arms-exporter at least in Europe, and half the planet will be desperate to buy from them.

This is the hedgehog strategy, Ukraine needs to turn itself into a arms-producing behemoth with insane defences so that if Russia ever decides to pull this stuff again, they'd need to basically amass massive amounts of material, troops and drones beforehand which would take years and cost an insane amount of money, and Ukraine and Europe will see it coming years in advance.

[Mentalist]

Tuapse refinery hit again (3rd time in 2 weeks). This time they seem to have started evacuating residents, b/c, y'know, burning petrochemicals are toxic AF.

some reports that the orcs are starting to seep into Konstyantynivka in sufficient numbers to be able to start digging in. This could become problematic within the next few weeks.

UAF forces holding positions on the E bank of the Oskil posted emaciated photos due to insanely poor supply lines. The brigade commander was sacked, and drones are being used to provide resupply. But the situation's still pretty dire, b/c the remaining beachhead is precarious, with the crossings over the Oskil being covered by enemy drones.

Victory Day Parade's being cut down to a bit of infantry marching across the Red Square. The guest list's being severely cut down as well, to keep things short and under one hour.

[Werthead]

A large explosion has hit a Russian military garrison in Khabarovsk Krai. It appears to be Ukrainian intelligence targeting Major General Azatbek Omurbekov, one of the architects of the Bucha Massacre in 2022. His condition is unclear but one person is reported dead.

Putin has mentioned there is nothing to worry about regarding the Tuapse refinery attacks, which has prompted people to start worrying.

There is a brewing rumour from Ukrainian intelligence that Putin has decided to declare a new mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of additional troops. Russian milbloggers are being more circumspect, but seem to be agreeing with Strelkov's line that this is useless without a massive industrial mobilisation of drone production. Ukrainian sources seem to be relishing the idea, saying it's a massive strategic mistake rather than improving Russian drone production instead.

This may have prompted Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of Russia's Central Bank (widely-respected for her insane ability to keep the Russian economy functioning as it has) to make a startling statement:

Quote

We have truly never, in the history of modern Russia, lived with such a shortage of labor until now. We have never had anything like this before, and it is affecting the entire economic situation as well as our decisions. The phenomenon has become abnormal for the current economic cycle. The labor shortage is directly affecting economic indicators and is a key factor the regulator takes into account when making decisions on the key interest rate and other monetary policy measures. Sometimes we are accused of deliberately slowing economic growth. Believe me, we have no choice. Under the circumstances we are in, with a labor shortage, our alternative is either to grow at a balanced pace with accelerating inflation, or to maintain controlled inflation. The focus of economic policy right now is to achieve higher economic growth. Believe me, we all want that—growth driven by increased labor productivity and the adoption of new technologies. The one who ensures the greatest efficiency will prevail.

Apparently the Russian Central Bank is now going to force anyone with over $32,000 in the bank to convert that extra money automatically into war bonds to fund the war, which if true, is going to go down extremely poorly.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 09:51 PM

[Cause]

OMG, I just saw an add for poly market on my instagram feed. “The odds of an Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 is now only 26%”. The text was accompanied by a Ukrainian soldier throwing Molotov cocktails at a billboard that said Ukraine and Russia are one people together.

Fucking gross to take bets on war but to actually post about it is sickening. I knew this was a thing but never actually been exposed to it.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 28 April 2026 - 11:22 PM, said:

OMG, I just saw an add for poly market on my instagram feed. “The odds of an Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 is now only 26%”. The text was accompanied by a Ukrainian soldier throwing Molotov cocktails at a billboard that said Ukraine and Russia are one people together.

Fucking gross to take bets on war but to actually post about it is sickening. I knew this was a thing but never actually been exposed to it.

LMAO

Prediction markets are just part and parcel of the low-key technical dystopia we, as a species, are sliding into. I gave up getting outraged over the concept about half a year ago.


They aren't wrong about the low likelihood of the ceasefire, though. trump's lost leverage to force Ukraine to make unpopular concessions; and there's no indications that things are disastrous enough to force putler to sue for a ceasefire where there's a non-zero chance of him losing face and showing weakness to his mafiocracy.

[Chance]

Great work for those of you updating this thread, it's awesome regular news over here in Sweden suck at these things.

Mentalist, on 29 April 2026 - 04:51 AM, said:

Cause, on 28 April 2026 - 11:22 PM, said:

OMG, I just saw an add for poly market on my instagram feed. “The odds of an Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 is now only 26%”. The text was accompanied by a Ukrainian soldier throwing Molotov cocktails at a billboard that said Ukraine and Russia are one people together.

Fucking gross to take bets on war but to actually post about it is sickening. I knew this was a thing but never actually been exposed to it.

LMAO

Prediction markets are just part and parcel of the low-key technical dystopia we, as a species, are sliding into. I gave up getting outraged over the concept about half a year ago.


They aren't wrong about the low likelihood of the ceasefire, though. trump's lost leverage to force Ukraine to make unpopular concessions; and there's no indications that things are disastrous enough to force putler to sue for a ceasefire where there's a non-zero chance of him losing face and showing weakness to his mafiocracy.

Saw a few people saying we are going towards a dystopia even the cyberpunk dystopias of last centuries couldn't imagine and stuff like this prove that we are certainly going in that direction some of the time. Its just such a banal and boring dystopia...why couldn't we have one of the cool ones.

This post has been edited by Chance: Today, 05:33 AM

[Garak]

Because the people sliding us into the dystopia are lame and pathetic.

This post has been edited by Garak: Today, 06:01 AM