[Grief]

Mentalist, on 13 April 2026 - 12:21 AM, said:

Macros, on 12 April 2026 - 09:14 PM, said:

Will Fico be as ballsy now Orban is gone?

That will depend on the number of unmarked dump trucks full of money that end up in his front yard.

But is push comes to shove, the EU can take away his voting powers, if there's no one else to back him up and veto it, so he's got a lot less leverage.

It would fairly definitely get veto'd. Much like the sith there always seem to be at least two...

I'm not sure that problem is the only thing preventing the EU removing a Member's vote in any case. You only ever need one ally or one country that just doesn't want to strip away voting rights on principle. Article 7 proceedings have never seriously looked like they would get there.

The Eurosceptic populist camp has lost a heavy hitter with Orban and I'm hopeful it's enough to pass Ukraine aid. Slovakia has elections next year. Whether that means Fico will mess around more or less we'll see, but in any case we can't expect Orban's departure to fix the EU. Don't get me wrong though, it's far better than the scenario where he's starting a new term with no change in sight.

The Czechs had an election recently so Babis is somewhat in that position, unfortunately.

[Mentalist]

loads of strikes on chemical plants (ammonia/explosives components).

After a few days' break, we have another strike on oil export terminals. This time it's Tuapse on the Black Sea.

UA's been making a lot of deals with European states on joint production of drones and other weapons systems.


orc progress has slowed down significantly, though they are still trying to make pushes out of Pokrovsk to the W, and trying to infiltrate in numbers into the outskirts of Konstyantynivka; in response, Moscow's been lobbing a lot of missiles over the past few days, with over a dozen civilian deaths and a lot of wounded.

[Werthead]

Massive strike on the Tuapse oil terminal, they really did a number on that this time. It was ablaze for some time.

After some days of denial, Russian milbloggers are admitting that the Lyman front is close to cracking. Ukrainian forces have definitively penetrated significant distances into the Russian lines and reached Yampil, which is way in the rear. Ukrainian forces have pushed from Lyman itself to reach Highway 00528, threatening Russian logistics, and additional units have been reported close to Zarechne. It appears that Ukrainian units have also met Russian units engaged in offensive action head-on at Bohuslavka and just east of Staryi Karavan. Russian forces seem to be in disarray. Reaching Yampil has also cut the T-05-13 resupply route which is causing major problems.

The Azov Battalion has claimed that Ukraine has gained air and drone superiority over the central Donetsk front extending as far as Donetsk City itself. Russian tactical drone use seems to have dropped hugely in this area and Ukrainian aerial dominance is creating massive headaches for Russian resupply to their main offensive effort in the fortress belt area.

Ukraine reports that repairs to the Druzhba oil pipeline are nearly complete and oil shipments to Hungary could resume within a week.

Moldova has blocked transit through its territory for multiple senior Russian commanders and Transnistrian collaborators. This effectively traps them in Transnistria as clearly Ukraine is not going to wave them through.

A private defence contractor shot down Shaheds over Kharkiv, apparently the first time a private defence company as destroyed Russian combat drone.

Sweden's King Gustaf has visited Ukraine. During the visit it was confirmed the Ukrainian pilots would start Gripen training soon.

Ukraine has destroyed a Rubikon UAV base near Mariupol.

Trump has finally acknowledged recent Ukrainian successes, stating that "Ukraine is moving forwards."

A Russian drone appears to have lost maneuvering capability and flown over 16km into Romanian territory. Romanian forces are trying to locate it.

[Mentalist]

trump decided to let orcs sell their oil w/o a price cap for another month.

In response UAF hit a secondary Baltic terminal in Vysotsk, 2 refineries in Samara Oblast (NovoKuybyshevs'k and Syzran'), as well as the main pumping/transit hub in Krasnodar Krai at Tikhorets'k. The last fire was so massive they needed over 50 pieces of equipment and over 200 firefighters to contain it.

UAF HQ also reported hitting Sevastopol, destroying fuel stoarage tanks and damaging 3 ships (2 big landing ships that were hit previously- Azov & Yamal, as well as a Grachonok-type patrol boat). Nothing sunk, though- they'd probably need missiles to do sufficient damage for that.

The orcs have been lobbing a lot more missiles at Ukraine this week, and the civilian toll has been quite heavy, close to 20 people. Every day there's reports from Nikopol. It's a city across the Dnipro from the ZAES, and home to a large ferrous alloys factory. The orcs have been using FPV drones to target transit vehicles, trying to inflict maximum civillian casualties. There really is no logic to this beyond terror tactics. They don't have the manpower to try to cross the river, so you can't even say they want to depopulate the other river bank to make it easier to land.

Orcs are desperately trying to recruit students and factory/business workers without ordering mobilization. University deans and business owners are being handed out recruitment quotas, and confirmations of this are gradually spreading.

Remains to be seen if these tensions actually amount to anything. The next potential pressure date is Victory Day, obviously. if putler does end up cancelling the parade, or relocating from Moscow further E, that'll be an interesting sign.

[Abyss]

Mentalist, on 18 April 2026 - 05:24 PM, said:

...
Orcs are desperately trying to recruit students and factory/business workers without ordering mobilization. University deans and business owners are being handed out recruitment quotas, and confirmations of this are gradually spreading.

Remains to be seen if these tensions actually amount to anything. The next potential pressure date is Victory Day, obviously. if putler does end up cancelling the parade, or relocating from Moscow further E, that'll be an interesting sign.

It's kind of remarkable to me that Russia isn't in full-blast revolt by now. Obvs all the power and guns are in the hands of the Putler gov, but it seems as tho even the military is being fried here.

[Mentalist]

Abyss, on 20 April 2026 - 02:37 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 18 April 2026 - 05:24 PM, said:

...
Orcs are desperately trying to recruit students and factory/business workers without ordering mobilization. University deans and business owners are being handed out recruitment quotas, and confirmations of this are gradually spreading.

Remains to be seen if these tensions actually amount to anything. The next potential pressure date is Victory Day, obviously. if putler does end up cancelling the parade, or relocating from Moscow further E, that'll be an interesting sign.

It's kind of remarkable to me that Russia isn't in full-blast revolt by now. Obvs all the power and guns are in the hands of the Putler gov, but it seems as tho even the military is being fried here.

they've got roughly 4 million FSB and Rosgvardiya sitting around, waiting for revolts to put down. Regular police force is about 30% understaffed (because a lot of beat cops joined up the war for higher pay early on), and Rosgvardiya actually absorbed the Interior Affairs' Ministry's most capable divisions (Organized Crime, Muscovy's version of SWAT, and their drug control divisions were all re-subordnated to Rosgvadiya in 2023), so there's a catastrophic lack of "basic" law enforcement, but the anti-riot troops are sitting pretty. And after Prigozhin's mutiny attempt they've been legislatively cleared to have heavy weapons.


Government officials are all beneficiaries of the system, and they've been conditioned to look out only for themselves, with everyone hoping that they won't be caught up in the "anti-corruption" purges, which are actually just attempts to redistribute the shrinking pie. and since civil service (and state-owned corps) are seen as the most desirable jobs for the young people, it'll take a LOOOONG time before the bureaucracy runs out of potential staff to the point where things start collapsing)


Any attempts to self-organize it, be it charity or trying to keep the local lake from being polluted, are generally cracked down on, because "the people in charge know best". Anyone with a shred of charisma is either co-opted or pressured out of the country, or imprisoned.

The system is quite efficient at keeping the population in a state of learned helplessness. So no, I wouldn't expect people on the streets until the people in charge of law enforcement feel like it's their time to make a play. And it's hard to imagine that until there's a real vacuum in power.

[Mentalist]

Some big IT firms in muscovy leaked that ISPs had a meeting with FSB's second service division (the people responsible for suppressing opposition) and made them all sign an off-the-record paper pledging to make every effort to disable the use of VPNs in their networks.

Which basically confirms that the internet crackdown is being run by FSB directly. The people who don't believe that anyone has actual agency.


Which means things are gonna be getting progressively worse.

meanwhile, the Tuapse refinery and terminal is on fire again. The orcs reported that they put it out, so then Magyar (no, not that one) decided to hit it again.

Also hit was Sevastopol bay, with 5 ships reported damaged- 4 landing craft, and one big reconnaissance ship.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian artillery regiments have deployed exoskeletons. This allows them to carry up up to a dozen howitzer shells (or a few artillery shells) at a time rather than just one. Not quite Starship Troopers, but the first-confirmed use of an exoskeleton in combat.

One key advantage that Ukraine has capitalised on is the intermediate drone range, previously dominated by the Russian Lancet. Anti-Lancet weapons and tactics have proliferated, and Ukraine has deployed Ram 2X and Hornet, and then iterated. A huge advantage is that Ukraine is working with partner countries to develop new drone types at a scale Russia cannot match, in facilities Russia cannot reach. The intermediate range (up to 100 miles) is now dominated by Ukrainian drones, meaning that Russian logistics is being degraded almost completely next to the front, forcing reinforcements and resupply units to inch towards the front under the cover of night (dubious), tree cover (until very recently, nonexistent) and drone nets (only quasi-effective).

Gerasimov has confirmed the full Russian capture of Luhansk Oblast, leaving people to ask, "again?"

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 21 April 2026 - 03:06 PM, said:

Ukrainian artillery regiments have deployed exoskeletons. This allows them to carry up up to a dozen howitzer shells (or a few artillery shells) at a time rather than just one. Not quite Starship Troopers, but the first-confirmed use of an exoskeleton in combat.

One key advantage that Ukraine has capitalised on is the intermediate drone range, previously dominated by the Russian Lancet. Anti-Lancet weapons and tactics have proliferated, and Ukraine has deployed Ram 2X and Hornet, and then iterated. A huge advantage is that Ukraine is working with partner countries to develop new drone types at a scale Russia cannot match, in facilities Russia cannot reach. The intermediate range (up to 100 miles) is now dominated by Ukrainian drones, meaning that Russian logistics is being degraded almost completely next to the front, forcing reinforcements and resupply units to inch towards the front under the cover of night (dubious), tree cover (until very recently, nonexistent) and drone nets (only quasi-effective).

Gerasimov has confirmed the full Russian capture of Luhansk Oblast, leaving people to ask, "again?"

Until 3rd Assault Corps disproves it. Yet again.

[Werthead]

Some Russian sources are saying that Tuapse (pop. 63,000) may have to be evacuated as the situation is becoming untenable. The entire town is getting hit by "oil rain" and some locals have already left under their own power.

Ukraine allegedly ceased running all target approvals by the United States some months ago.

Ukraine has failed to gain a licence to produce Patriots on Ukrainian soil, despite believing they can build at least 60 a month (the same as the USA), scaling up later in the war, and able to sell back to the United States and allies. As a result, Ukraine is switching to a native Patriot-style design which will by wholly home-built.

French analysis that Russia is currently shipping around 50% of its normal export capacity due to multiple oil terminals being offline, reducing its ability to capitalise on the Middle East crisis.

Russian casualties in the conflict have surpassed 1.32 million.

The €90 billion aid package for Ukraine has been provisionally approved after Hungary and Slovakia removed their objections. That could be finalised as soon as tomorrow.

Ukrainian personnel have arrived in Saudi Arabia to train Saudi and American military personnel on Sky Map, an anti-drone countermeasures system.

[Werthead]

Some controversy going on after the developers of the Russian Kukushka heavy bomber drone (a Russian equivalent to Baba Yaga) were revealed to have been sent into direct front-line combat duties, apparently a deliberate attempt to kill them after getting into an argument with their CO. The drone operators were in demand with other drone units, but the CO became angry with them thinkin they were more important than him, so basically sent them to their deaths. Their families and supporters in other units are now after the CO's blood.

Russia pushing again at Kupyansk and taking extremely heavy losses in the process.

Russia hosted a live linkup with solders on the front to address students at the Kuban State Agrarian University and talk them into signing up with the military. A Ukrainian unit got wind of this and hacked into the feed, to cheerfully inform the students about the sheer volume of Russian casualties before they were cut off.

Ukraine has adapted AN-28 transporters as drone interceptor launchers, maximising the interceptor time in the air to engage targets.

Interceptor drone command centres have been moved back further into Ukrainian territory, allowing drone operators to engage enemy drones at considerable distance from the front, minimising the chance of casualties.

The oil terminal at Feodosia, Crimea has taken a heavy hit and is on fire. Again. The Gorky oil pumping station in Nizhny Novgorod has also been hit, with significant damage reported.

Tuapse is still ablaze after four days.

Several middling OSINT sources reporting that Ukraine has retaken the centre of Primorskoye and is pushing the Russians back out of Lukyanovskoye. Heavy combat is now underway in Stepnohirsk. This is all on the western Zaporizhzhia front, hard by the Dnipro.

The Lyman front is also heavily engaged, with Russian units furiously reporting that when they do make grinding advances, they cannot capitalise because their logistics are completely hammered into oblivion and they run out of ammo, food or both, and then have to pull back again.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 23 April 2026 - 09:30 PM, said:

Some controversy going on after the developers of the Russian Kukushka heavy bomber drone (a Russian equivalent to Baba Yaga) were revealed to have been sent into direct front-line combat duties, apparently a deliberate attempt to kill them after getting into an argument with their CO. The drone operators were in demand with other drone units, but the CO became angry with them thinkin they were more important than him, so basically sent them to their deaths. Their families and supporters in other units are now after the CO's blood....

Just passing curiosity on my part: developers, operators, or both?

[Cause]

I was watching a YouTube documentary type thing about Russian black widows. Marrying someone and convincing them to sign up and go fight on the front so you can claim their death benefits. Or sometimes military nurses who I guess have access to a lot of recruits before they go to the front. Absolutely wild. Paints a picture where wives and even families see their sons or husbands as potential assets just waiting to be killed. Everything from women marrying a man and taking a gamble hoping he died before he comes back or organized syndicates where offficers and the women are in cahoots together.

I dont doubt there is some truth to it but also surely after a women has paperwork showing she married 4 men it sets off alarm bells for an investigation. How can they get away with this?

The regional disparity in wealth in Russia is fascinating.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 24 April 2026 - 04:49 PM, said:

I was watching a YouTube documentary type thing about Russian black widows. Marrying someone and convincing them to sign up and go fight on the front so you can claim their death benefits. Or sometimes military nurses who I guess have access to a lot of recruits before they go to the front. Absolutely wild. Paints a picture where wives and even families see their sons or husbands as potential assets just waiting to be killed. Everything from women marrying a man and taking a gamble hoping he died before he comes back or organized syndicates where offficers and the women are in cahoots together.

I dont doubt there is some truth to it but also surely after a women has paperwork showing she married 4 men it sets off alarm bells for an investigation. How can they get away with this?

If it benefits the state, why would the state make it illegal? Rationally you'd expect the state to encourage and reward it, like maybe give them extra tax credits or special "black widow" training or professional black widow advice, not try to put them in prison.

... and of course this is Russia under Putin that we're talking about...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 24 April 2026 - 05:26 PM

[Tsundoku]

Natasha Romanoff really downgraded huh?

[Garak]

Trust me, you cannot imagine the level of corruption in Eastern Europe. It's wild what you can do. And then there's Russia, which is basically to blame for all this in the first place since a lot of corruption was taught back during the "glorious" USSR where the only way to get anything was bribing someone or knowing someone in the Party.

[Mentalist]

Here's a bit of news from a few days ago:

Duma chronicles:
There was a bill proposed that would bar children, mentally handicapped, and men who are in arrears on child/spousal support from being able to gamble through registered bookmakers.

The Duma Committee sent it to the Ministry of Finance for review.

The Ministry of Finance recommended shelving it. The rationale? "Those categories make up about 30% of the people partaking in legalized gambling. Barring them would significantly reduce taxable income, and the state's tax revenue"

As long as the black widows pay their taxes, everyone's happy. The fact that they encourage more suckers to join up is a win for the MoD.

[Mentalist]

New record- UAF drones flew to Yekaterinburg. Unfortunately, the trajectory to an Almaz-Antey facility that manufactured anti-air systems components was interrupted by a luxury high-rise. Hopefully this can be taken into account next time. (edit: not the farthest strike (that was in Tyumen'), but Yekaterinburg is the center of the Urals industrial cluster, which is crucial for military production)

Tuaregs in Mali started a new offensive against the military regime that is backed by Moscow. Reports that one of the orcs' helicopters was shot down. This is Wagner's stomping ground, currently know as "African Corps" of the orc MoD.

Unclear if HUR is still involved in aiding the Tuaregs.

There was another prisoner swap- 193 both ways.

Seems to be major strike on Yaroslavl' refinery going on now, and some more hits in Crimea. Unmanned Systems Corps continue to report on destroyed anti-air systems, and, especially in the South, these shortages seem to be bearing fruit.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 26 April 2026 - 04:54 AM

[Werthead]

Russian military forces supporting the Malian government have been heroically running away and retreating in the face of rebel attacks. Some of the Tuareg militias, possibly including those trained by Ukraine, have aligned with JNIM to carry out the attacks. Both Ukrainian and French satisfaction with these moves may be tempered by JNIM being a radical Islamist group aligned with al-Qaeda. These are not good guys, even if realpolitik makes them eliminating Russian forces beneficial.

Russia is withdrawing more heavy equipment from Crimea and Kherson to deploy elsewhere. Ukraine has identified some convoys of heavy equipment and attacked them, in one case destroying a rare Tornado-S MLRS.

Ukrainian forces have reached the rail line in the south of Kostyantynivka. I'm not sure this is as big a deal as some have made out, as the line has been under constant drone interdiction range (from both sides) for months on end. I'm not sure any trains have dared to make the trip along it this close to the front in some considerable time. Still, symbolic as Ukraine continues to regain ground (however marginally) on this front.

Bilohirya, near Orikhiv, has also been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

Some Russian sources noting puzzlement that Putin has not appeared in public for two weeks, which isn't quite the longest he's gone without appearing since the start of the conflict, but is getting up there.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 26 April 2026 - 09:37 PM

[Tsundoku]

I read about this elsewhere, but daaaaaaaamn. Cold AF.