[Werthead]

Interesting analysis on the drone war, concluding that Ukraine has achieved a significant material and quantitative advantage over Russia. It points out that 7 million drones produced this year will likely mean over 10 million in 2027, and 10 million per year is when Ukraine believes it can start retaking significant territory.

In particular, it identifies March 2026 as a key month when Ukraine carried out more drone and missile attacks on Russian soil - 7,300 - than Russia carried out on Ukrainian - 6,400. The next key moment may come when the Russian Northern Fleet base at Severomorsk enters strike range (they're not far off now).

There is also now a growing analysis, even backed up by some Russian milbloggers, that Russia's spring 2026 offensive has been halted in its tracks even as it started, and Russian military commanders are now starting to really get into a tailspin. Some strategic reserves of equipment and troops for the summer campaign have already been deployed to meet the Ukrainian counter-thrusts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and to reinforce the central Donetsk push around Pokrovsk. These are the forces that were not supposed to be engaged for another 2-4 months, and using them was meant to avoid a major Russian mobilisation this year. Them being depleted now puts Putin in a difficult position. Mobilisation against a backdrop of cutting off the internet and public demonstrations against that (though modest so far) could create a flashpoint Putin wants to avoid. Russian recruitment is also apparently down 20% on last year, whilst casualties are significantly up.

There also appears to now be a deficit in the Russian workforce of around 3 million people, and by 2030 that could hit 11 million, with massive economic damage to the country as the inevitable result.

They also analyse Ukraine's weaknesses and confirm the country has its own manpower and recruitment problems. However, they concur with the general assessment that Ukraine's position is much stronger than it was 18 months ago (when things looked shaky for a while) and that Ukraine taking the lead in both air and ground drones is a decisive shift that Russia does not look able to replicate.

Putin has at least resurfaced, greeting Iran's foreign minister in St. Petersburg.

Russian tanks are being used on the front again, possibly out of desperation. We have some of the first footage for some considerable time of Javelins being used to eliminate them.

Current assessment is that Ukrainian forces may have reached Krashnohirske, Berezove and Vorone, leaving Russia with the barest of toeholds in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Berezove may be their last significant holding in the entire oblast. Ukrainian forces further south and north-east have already crossed the oblast border and driven Russian forces back into Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces have negotiated a withdrawal of their forces from the northern Malian city of Kidal, sparking fury in the government, which has said that "Russia has betrayed us." The move came after rebel drones hit several Russian targets around Kidal and destroyed them.

[Cause]

When this war is over arms may become Ukraines top industry. Probably won’t even have to scale down production. Most of Europe, USA, Israel, the gulf states will likely all be customers

[Werthead]

Cause, on 27 April 2026 - 09:44 PM, said:

When this war is over arms may become Ukraines top industry. Probably won’t even have to scale down production. Most of Europe, USA, Israel, the gulf states will likely all be customers

Ukraine can't scale down. They need to maintain this level of arms output, potentially indefinitely, because scaling up to it again mid-invasion took too long and was too hard. They need to keep at this level by basically turning into the biggest arms-exporter at least in Europe, and half the planet will be desperate to buy from them.

This is the hedgehog strategy, Ukraine needs to turn itself into a arms-producing behemoth with insane defences so that if Russia ever decides to pull this stuff again, they'd need to basically amass massive amounts of material, troops and drones beforehand which would take years and cost an insane amount of money, and Ukraine and Europe will see it coming years in advance.

[Mentalist]

Tuapse refinery hit again (3rd time in 2 weeks). This time they seem to have started evacuating residents, b/c, y'know, burning petrochemicals are toxic AF.

some reports that the orcs are starting to seep into Konstyantynivka in sufficient numbers to be able to start digging in. This could become problematic within the next few weeks.

UAF forces holding positions on the E bank of the Oskil posted emaciated photos due to insanely poor supply lines. The brigade commander was sacked, and drones are being used to provide resupply. But the situation's still pretty dire, b/c the remaining beachhead is precarious, with the crossings over the Oskil being covered by enemy drones.

Victory Day Parade's being cut down to a bit of infantry marching across the Red Square. The guest list's being severely cut down as well, to keep things short and under one hour.

[Werthead]

A large explosion has hit a Russian military garrison in Khabarovsk Krai. It appears to be Ukrainian intelligence targeting Major General Azatbek Omurbekov, one of the architects of the Bucha Massacre in 2022. His condition is unclear but one person is reported dead.

Putin has mentioned there is nothing to worry about regarding the Tuapse refinery attacks, which has prompted people to start worrying.

There is a brewing rumour from Ukrainian intelligence that Putin has decided to declare a new mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of additional troops. Russian milbloggers are being more circumspect, but seem to be agreeing with Strelkov's line that this is useless without a massive industrial mobilisation of drone production. Ukrainian sources seem to be relishing the idea, saying it's a massive strategic mistake rather than improving Russian drone production instead.

This may have prompted Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of Russia's Central Bank (widely-respected for her insane ability to keep the Russian economy functioning as it has) to make a startling statement:

Quote

We have truly never, in the history of modern Russia, lived with such a shortage of labor until now. We have never had anything like this before, and it is affecting the entire economic situation as well as our decisions. The phenomenon has become abnormal for the current economic cycle. The labor shortage is directly affecting economic indicators and is a key factor the regulator takes into account when making decisions on the key interest rate and other monetary policy measures. Sometimes we are accused of deliberately slowing economic growth. Believe me, we have no choice. Under the circumstances we are in, with a labor shortage, our alternative is either to grow at a balanced pace with accelerating inflation, or to maintain controlled inflation. The focus of economic policy right now is to achieve higher economic growth. Believe me, we all want that—growth driven by increased labor productivity and the adoption of new technologies. The one who ensures the greatest efficiency will prevail.

Apparently the Russian Central Bank is now going to force anyone with over $32,000 in the bank to convert that extra money automatically into war bonds to fund the war, which if true, is going to go down extremely poorly.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 April 2026 - 09:51 PM

[Cause]

OMG, I just saw an add for poly market on my instagram feed. “The odds of an Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 is now only 26%”. The text was accompanied by a Ukrainian soldier throwing Molotov cocktails at a billboard that said Ukraine and Russia are one people together.

Fucking gross to take bets on war but to actually post about it is sickening. I knew this was a thing but never actually been exposed to it.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 28 April 2026 - 11:22 PM, said:

OMG, I just saw an add for poly market on my instagram feed. “The odds of an Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 is now only 26%”. The text was accompanied by a Ukrainian soldier throwing Molotov cocktails at a billboard that said Ukraine and Russia are one people together.

Fucking gross to take bets on war but to actually post about it is sickening. I knew this was a thing but never actually been exposed to it.

LMAO

Prediction markets are just part and parcel of the low-key technical dystopia we, as a species, are sliding into. I gave up getting outraged over the concept about half a year ago.


They aren't wrong about the low likelihood of the ceasefire, though. trump's lost leverage to force Ukraine to make unpopular concessions; and there's no indications that things are disastrous enough to force putler to sue for a ceasefire where there's a non-zero chance of him losing face and showing weakness to his mafiocracy.

[Chance]

Great work for those of you updating this thread, it's awesome regular news over here in Sweden suck at these things.

Mentalist, on 29 April 2026 - 04:51 AM, said:

Cause, on 28 April 2026 - 11:22 PM, said:

OMG, I just saw an add for poly market on my instagram feed. “The odds of an Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 is now only 26%”. The text was accompanied by a Ukrainian soldier throwing Molotov cocktails at a billboard that said Ukraine and Russia are one people together.

Fucking gross to take bets on war but to actually post about it is sickening. I knew this was a thing but never actually been exposed to it.

LMAO

Prediction markets are just part and parcel of the low-key technical dystopia we, as a species, are sliding into. I gave up getting outraged over the concept about half a year ago.


They aren't wrong about the low likelihood of the ceasefire, though. trump's lost leverage to force Ukraine to make unpopular concessions; and there's no indications that things are disastrous enough to force putler to sue for a ceasefire where there's a non-zero chance of him losing face and showing weakness to his mafiocracy.

Saw a few people saying we are going towards a dystopia even the cyberpunk dystopias of last centuries couldn't imagine and stuff like this prove that we are certainly going in that direction some of the time. Its just such a banal and boring dystopia...why couldn't we have one of the cool ones.

This post has been edited by Chance: 29 April 2026 - 05:33 AM

[Garak]

Because the people sliding us into the dystopia are lame and pathetic.

This post has been edited by Garak: 29 April 2026 - 06:01 AM

[Mentalist]

2 days of strikes on Perm'
Yesterday it was the pumping station, with 4 50k L reservoirs burning, and oil rain, just like in Tuapse.

This morning the UAF hit the pumping station again, as well as the refinery, destroying the primary rectification column.

over the past 2 days UAF also hit the Orsk refinery (Orenburg Oblast, b/w Bashkorostan and Kazakhstan), Sverdlov ammunition plant in Dzerzhyns'k (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast)

They also destroyed 2 heicopters in Voronezh oblast by discovering their staging grounds, and damage 2 patrol craft in the Kerch straight.

Putler is apparently floating the idea of a Victory Day truce to have his cut-down parade (no vehicles, no cadets/students, just a few infantry units and less than one thousand guests).

Ukraine struck an empty shadow fleet tanker off the coast of Tuapse.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian drones are currently pummelling Russian positions around Mariupol, apparently with almost no air defences responding. Ukrainian drones and possible partisan activity also active around Melitopol, with a large fire near the town centre.

EU support for Ukraine has surpassed $200 billion, and officially now more financial aid than has been supplied by the USA.

Two Russian patrol boats guarding the Kerch Strait Bridge were hit by drones overnight.

Ukraine is implementing a new policy of two-month rotations, ending the practice of keeping units on station for months and months at a time. Some suggestion that increased Ukrainian drone usage for defence makes this easier than previously.

The US and European nations may cooperate on a new safety confinement system for Chornobyl after damage to the previous one.

[Cause]

Mentalist, on 30 April 2026 - 05:36 PM, said:

.

Putler is apparently floating the idea of a Victory Day truce to have his cut-down parade (no vehicles, no cadets/students, just a few infantry units and less than one thousand guests).

Why would Ukraine possible agree to this? If anything a giant parade of soldiers and equipment packed together should make an irresistible target?

[Garak]

In theory you also have civillians lining up to see the parade so striking it wouldn't be that good of an idea from a PR point. Honestly even making Putler scale down the parade is a win. Shows things aren't going as well as the state claims. Otherwise they would just hold it like usual. "What these tanks and troops? Nah, we are winning and everything is fine, these troops aren't needed for anything right now. We are the strongest army in the world!" As it currently stands all Putler needs now is to trot out the damn T-14 Armata and hope no one wonders why the tank they've been bragging about has yet to be used - almost like it's a paper tiger.

[Mentalist]

Speaking of weapons that don't actually exist...

UAF claims to have hit a Su-57 on an airbase in Chelyabinsk Oblast. roughly 1700 clicks from the border.

[Werthead]

Su-57s exit, they're just nowhere near as good as what they are supposed to be (at least an F-22-level equivalent, if not an F-35). The massive rivets they are built with disrupting the stealth skin when that's the whole damned point of the aircraft is incredibly comical (and to be fair, not the Sukhoi designers' fault, more the engineers).

Multiple Su-57s and Su-34s damaged, possibly one of each destroyed. Pretty big hit.

Tuapse attacked again overnight, the plant is a goner at this point. Perm taking more hits.

Russian bankers and finance bloggers and even some experts talking openly about how to avoid a wholesale banking sector collapse. The general message is grim, with bankers now discussing seizing the assets of the oligarchs (some oligarchs have been hurriedly moving liquid and some physical assets abroad) or converting deposits over a certain amount from ordinary citizens to credit notes, but they fear this would trigger a physical run on the banks. The term "like the 1990s" keeps coming up, which in Russia is likely to trigger wholesale PTSD.

Some suggestion of Ukraine tying a major defence agreement with the EU to its own EU accession by December 2027 (possibly Moldova as well). Some EU members are bullish on this, others have major concerns, as Ukraine's corruption measures, though advanced, are not completed as they would like.

Ukraine is interdicting the land corridor from Crimea to Russia, hitting Russian supply columns moving between Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Mariupol and Donetsk City. Individual vehicles and entire convoys have been hit.

Ukraine is retaking Stepnohirsk in western Zaporizhzhia by blowing up tower blocks with drones and glide bombs. The tower blocks have been taken over by Russian soldiers using them as fire control points. Ukraine prefers to liberate towns without levelling them, but in this case clearing the towers would be insanely costly.

Russian oil output has dropped to below 4.7 million barrels a day, the lowest amount since December 2009 in the wake of the financial crisis.

Ukraine is employing HIMARS on a larger scale again, destroying multiple Russian artillery pieces on the Zaporizhzhia front. This reflects the dwindling number of Russian drones over the front, which had started to push HIMARS back out of useful range.

Steven Witkoff is apparently tired of travelling to Kyiv by train so is delaying any further travels to Ukraine for peace talks. The word for this is "pathetic."

[Werthead]

Ukranian drones hitting Mariupol again, destroying a Russian military stockpile near the old Azovstal complex.

Ukraine hitting Primorsk port, damaging a Karakurt-class missile ship, a patrol ship and a shadow fleet tanker.

The Russian refinery at Perm is still ablaze after four days.

Russian Iskander missile launches from Crimea have dropped hugely after Ukraine targeted launchers on the peninsular, destroying dozens of them.

Two Russian shadow fleet vessels hit by drones at Novorossiysk.

[Werthead]

Some Russian sources openly talking about a possible coup or "early retirement" for Putin. Credibility is unclear but there's definitely more chatter than normal. Meanwhile, other sources saying Putin has considered the use of a "demonstrative" tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, possibly on Russian-occupied territory. This was shot down previously by Biden and Xi, but its unclear what consequences Trump would enforce, or if Putin would believe him.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

From yesterday:

Quote

Fearing Ukrainian Drones, Russia Floods Moscow With Air Defenses Ahead Of Victory Day

Open-source analysts estimate that Moscow is protected by a multi-layered air defense network consisting of two defensive rings around the city, as well as several positions within the city itself. In total, around 130 air defense sites have been identified in and around Moscow.

The network is primarily composed of approximately 100 Pantsir-S1 systems and a smaller number of Tor systems, which are used to intercept drones and cruise missiles. These are supported by roughly 20 S-400 batteries designed to counter higher-altitude threats, including ballistic missiles.

[...] Despite this extensive air defense coverage, Russia is expected to scale back its Victory Day parade in 2026.

Fearing Ukrainian Drones, Russia Floods Moscow With Air Defenses Ahead Of Victory Day — UNITED24 Media

... and now today:

Quote

Drone Hits a Moscow High-Rise Days Before a Major Military Parade
Air defenses in the Russian capital were breached as Ukraine expands long-range strikes.

A drone slammed into a high-rise apartment building a few miles from the Kremlin on Monday [...] The drone's evasion of air defenses was an embarrassment for the Kremlin

Drone Hits a Moscow High-Rise Days Before a Major Military Parade - The New York Times

Quote

In case it's not clear, here's why the attack on the high-rise building near the Kremlin in Moscow is a big deal:

1. Russia has been preparing for this exact scenario for years. [...]

2. One of the alleged goals of the SMO was to protect Russian speakers in the Donbas region. The inability to protect the families of the regime and oligarchs who have apartments in the tower does not bode well for the successful demilitarization of Ukraine.

3. Ukraine's defense industry is eyeing to become a major global arms exporter. Therefore, this should also be seen as a form of product advertisement. Ukraine's drones can breach the best-protected city in the world, which has rings of dedicated Pantsir air defense systems optimized against drones.

Alexander Kruel - Facebook

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 04 May 2026 - 12:51 PM

[Werthead]

​
Reading through the suggestions of a coup against Putin in more detail.

Apparently there was a significant shift in Putin's security starting in early April. Public appearances were scaled back significantly, and Putin and his family stopped staying at their Moscow residences, instead staying inside the security cordon at the Kremlin or in more remote, easily-sealed-off compounds in the countryside. Independent Russian media outlet Important Stories reports that the internal security level was raised around 1 March, possibly for the first time since Prigozhin's would-be coup.

This may tie in with other rumours that the Russian military was ordered to massively prioritise the security of all of their drones in particular, with every single drone now having a significant chain of identification from assembly to battlefield deployment. This in theory prevents a drone being used against Putin without its ID being known. This may also be contributing the slowdown in Russian drone production, and why some elite Russian drone operators have been sent into direct combat (a virtual death sentence).

Apparently there was a tense meeting in the Kremlin in late December where security officials traded blame for the assassination of a Russian lieutenant general (presumably Igor Kirillov) and were unable to formulate a plan to stop further assassinations by explosives or drones, to Putin's frustration.

Quote

Staffers working near Putin are no longer allowed to use mobile phones or take public transport, the report says, part of a raft of extreme new security measures implemented by the Federal Protective Service (FSO), the agency that protects Russia’s top officials. “Surveillance systems have been installed in the homes of cooks, photographers, and bodyguards,” the document reads.

In addition, Putin and his family have stopped visiting their residences in the Moscow region, and the president has made no appearances at military sites this year. 

As reported by Important Stories, some of the information in the report was independently corroborated. For example, a former FSB officer told reporters earlier this year that it was the FSO, not the FSB, that was responsible for recent large-scale internet shutdowns in Moscow. The same claim is made in the intelligence document.

A current FSB officer told reporters that his unit was having trouble obtaining wiretapping authorization for criminal investigations because “all the equipment has been redirected to monitor the government and other state bodies.”

Amid setbacks in Russia’s grinding war on Ukraine and mounting economic problems, other signs of fear and tension have spilled into the public eye. For the first time in years, the upcoming Victory Day parade in the heart of Moscow will not include any heavy military vehicles, a security decision the Kremlin attributed to Ukrainian drone strikes.

The May 9 celebration — the centerpiece of Putin’s effort to recast his invasion of Ukraine as a continuation of the Soviet war against Nazism — will also be attended by an unusually low number of high-level foreign dignitaries.

An unusual level of discontent has also recently appeared in social media, with Russians voicing their outrage at recent blocking of mobile internet services and rising prices.

There are also suggestions that Russia's increasing internet clampdown and Putin's reforms of the Federal Protective Service and National Guard might be a prelude to a full "Iranianisation" of Russia, with the FSP and NG forming an IRGC analogue. Interestingly, the FSB appears to be outside of this scope, suggesting that Putin's distrust of the FSB ever since the initial invasion of Ukraine went badly wrong has not been repaired in the four years since.

Putin has also reportedly returned to micromanaging the war on almost every front, despite a lack of military training, which might explain a great deal about some of Russia's insane decisions. 

Ukraine is claiming that FP1 drones penetrated Moscow's air defence cordons overnight, flying over 10 S-400 batteries and around 80 Pantsir and Tor systems before they were finally engaged. FP1s are not known for stealth, so its unclear why they were not engaged.

​

This post has been edited by Werthead: 04 May 2026 - 04:34 PM

[Macros]

Insane micromanaging of a failed war, let's hope he goes full Hitler and blows his own head off