[Mentalist]

Volgograd refinery had its processing unit hit, taking it out of operation.

That is the fifth consecutive successful strike on an orc refinery since UA restarted its kinetic oil sanctions program.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has launched a long-range drone attack on the port of Olya near Astrakhan on the Caspian Sea. The Olya 4 cargo ship was sunk in port, apparently still laden with drone components and supplies from Iran.

Bulgaria has transferred three Mi-4 attack helicopters to Ukraine.

An ammunition plant in Ryazan has been damaged in a drone strike. The Syzran oil plant is also ablaze after several attacks. Despite months of respite from Ukrainian attacks for the Russian fire service to replenish its supplies to deal with chemical fires, it appears they haven't bothered and in some of these places fires are being allowed to burn themselves out, causing vastly more damage in the process.

Russia has modified Iskander and KN-23 missiles to undertake mid-course evasive maneuvers, which has reduced the effectiveness of interceptors. Patriot can compensate but I don't think Ukraine has the upgraded versions and in the current situation, it's unclear if they can get them.

Massive protests in Anchorage with the Ukrainian flag being proudly flown.

Lavrov has arrived in Alaska in a T-shirt that says "USSR." Russian media, propagandists and bloggers accompanying the delegation have not been given hotel rooms and instead will have to stay in overspill rooms in a business centre.

During the latest prisoner swap, one Ukrainian POW who has been in Russian captivity for nine years since the original Russian incursion in the Donbas has returned home.

[Mentalist]

Worth noting, KN-23 are North Korean ballistic missiles. So DPRK is currently getting modified missile tech through this war, that can only be dealt with by modified Patriots. That has implications for South Korea (you'd think)

Videos from Syzran' refinery suggest the primary processing unit was hit. Which is good, b/c it should shut it down.

[Werthead]

This was the dumbest thing I've ever seen an American President do, and I remember a lot of the Reagan years and was studying American politics during the Lewinsky scandal.

Fly for many hours to Alaska, get Putin to show up, Putin just clearly lectured him for hours, made no commitments and then headed off with a ton of photos of the American President kowtowing to him. The press, including a lot sympathetic but not totally enslaved to Trump, are rinsing the absolute hell out of him. Zelensky is flying over on Monday and there's going to be bugger all to really discuss.

The irony in here is that Putin is showing some signs of moving away from his most maximalist demands, but only very slightly, and he believes time is on his side, as long as the economy can hold up.

[Mentalist]

And now we got multiple reports that trump is conveying putler's position "UA needs to abandon the remainder of Donets'k Oblast', and we'll stop attacking on the other frontlines and give a written promise not to do it again"


And this is what trump will be selling Ze in the Oval Office on Monday.

[the broken]

I think the best we could hope for from this was nothing, so that's on track.

[Tsundoku]

I personally thought that Piers Morgan was - accidentally - very, very prescient:

https://www.thedaily...e-putin-summit/

[Werthead]

The current idea circulating - Ukraine withdraws from Donetsk in return for a freezing of the line elsewhere - is a clear non-starter.

Due to confusion from Witkoff (remember this is why random golfing buddies do not make ideal diplomats), Kyiv thought the offer was for Ukraine to withdraw from Donetsk and recognising Crimea as Russian in return for Russia withdrawing from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in full. That deal they were at least willing to think about, even if it sounded implausible and they'd need to really sell it. But getting all of the other two oblasts back in return for giving Russia something they already have (Crimea and Luhansk) and 30% of Donetsk is not the worst idea that Russia could have put forwards in the world (and obviously there would be no formal recognition of this). It would be a very bitter pill to swallow but you can see there is something there that people might go for.

Withdrawing from Donetsk and merely freezing the current front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia is insane. That gives Russia far too much in return for nothing, not to mention it surrenders a lot of the rare earth minerals that the USA negotiated access to earlier this year. The fortress belt in Donetsk is extremely heavily-fortified and, depending on who you believe, it would take Russia several years to take that territory in battle, at a horrendous cost of lives and material. Giving it to Russia for free in return for nothing substantive is the very definition of absurd. It also allows Russia to then springboard into much easier territory when it wants to have another go, and on this deal, they 100% would want to have another go. Putin's written guarantee is worthless, a security guarantee is needed.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Today, 12:47 AM

[Werthead]

It feels like there's been a big shift in the last few hours.

The headline news is that United States has agreed to join European nations in providing Ukraine with an Article 5-style military guarantee to Ukraine: if Russia attacks Ukraine, European powers and the United States will directly militarily intervene on Ukraine's side. Putin allegedly agreed to this. Essentially it's "NATO without NATO."

Zelensky is flying to Washington tomorrow for talks with Trump, but he won't be going alone. In an unprecedented move, the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Finland, NATO and the EU will fly with him. France, Britain and possibly Germany are once again talking about a "reassurance force", possibly of around 10,000 troops to start with, maybe rising to 30,000 later on, to be deployed to Ukraine when hostilities cease. This force will engage in training and take over rear echelon duties, freeing up Ukrainian forces to reinforce the front line. Apparently Putin is now more open to this then a few months ago, when he flatly said any such forces could be targets for Russian attacks. We can also assume that there'd be fighter aircraft from European countries in the skies over Ukraine as well.

Ukrainian politicians are still not buying the idea of giving up the Donbas, and opposition politicians warn this could be seen as a major betrayal of the Ukrainian people. However, they are very carefully analysing opinion polls: whilst Ukrainian people are willing to fight on, a lot of people are tired after three and a half years of war. They are also looking at the potential economic benefits of the war ending, Ukraine shifting to being a weapons supplier for European nations (particularly of drones) which would allow them to effectively remain on a war footing (and pay for it), and the economic rebound of several million Ukrainian refugees returning home.

Russia settling for the Donbas and the current front line in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson is seen as a bit too good to be true though, and it's unclear if Putin can sell that to the hardliners as anything other than a retreat on his previous minimum requirements for ending the conflict.

[Mentalist]

Losing the fortress belt would be an invitation for a new war. Ukrainians have 0 trust for Moscow, and there's serious questions as to how willing the West would be to get involved in a real war.

I don't think Zelensky can sell that. But I could be wrong, I'm not living there.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: Today, 07:47 PM

[Macros]

Ugh, any deal that comes from this will be heralded by Trump as entirely his doing.

[Macros]

Ugh, any deal that comes from this will be heralded by Trump as entirely his doing.