[Tiste Simeon]

Werthead, on 26 July 2025 - 09:59 PM, said:

A German politician from the AfD Party was found to have made pro-Russian comments but had also secretly spent three months serving in the Ukrainian military earlier this year. He will be expelled from the party.

That is a weird one. Like what's going through that guys head? Anything?

[Werthead]

For a broad overview of the current conflict, it appears that Russia's efforts in Sumy may have crested, with Russian forces now in trouble across most of the salient. Russian forces reported to be withdrawing from Oleksiivka and Ukrainian forces are now attacking on the Bezsalivka and Yunakivka axes.

Ukraine has vectored in reinforcements to drive back the Russian forces into Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces continue to remain on the attack in Kursk itself, with attacks continuing around Tetkino.

Russian forces seem to have resumed minor operations around the Vovchansk front (on the Kharkiv-Belgorod Oblast border), with no signs of success at the moment.

Russia has reinforced its offensive efforts on the Luhasnk-Kharkiv border, in particular driving around Kupyansk to the north and north-west. Some Russian recon groups may have reached the outskirts of Kupyansk itself before being driven back. This is significant as Kupyansk has been contested for close to eighteen months with little success (at one point late last year Russia literally ran out of troops on this front and was driven back more than five miles in a day, and has spent months slowly grinding back to where they were before). Russia appears to have established bridgheads across the Oskil River and held them against furious counter-attacks.

Further south, some of the heaviest fighting we've seen in Kharkiv Oblast has been raging between Kreminna and Lyman. Russian forces have smashed themselves bloody on Ukrainian defences, with some units claiming a 66-1 kill ratio, which would easily be the highest ratio of the entire war (possibly by 400-500%). Russia has advanced some metres to dozens of metres in places, but the cost is terrifying, and may be the highest loss-for-land ratio of the conflict to date.

The main front in Donetsk Oblast is seeing some very heavy fighting, with Russian forces finally regaining control over most of Toretsk (again, after taking the whole town and then losing most of it in an afternoon counter-attack and then struggling to get back to where it was again months and months later), but Ukrainian forces may remain on the western edge of the town. The main Russian effort here is aimed at Kostyantynivka but they are experiencing massive problems advancing towards the town due to heavy resistance. Russian forces remain stymied outside Pokrovsk, despite regaining territory around the town (re-retaking Kotylne this week months after losing it to Ukraine). In particular, Ukraine has successfully mounted counter-attacks along the front and driven into the centre of the Russian lines east of Pokrovsk. This position does not appear tenable without massive reinforcements (it's a bit of a Leeroy Jenkins move), so this may be more of a raid in force to try to destroy Russian troops and lines of supply before withdrawing.

Despite Ukrainian resistance, some Russian front lines now appear to have (just) crossed the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, though not significantly so far. The main Russian effort here seems to be held up in heavy fighting near Oleksiivka, Donetsk Oblast and along the Vovcha River.

Minor Russian advances along the Dnipro, reaching the southern outskirts of Stepnohirsk, but not with sufficient force to take the settlement yet.

Russian forces continue to attack the islands in the Dnipro River mouth near Kherson, to little avail.

The big picture is that Russia is failing to reinforce one front as their main effort, instead spreading their forces wide. This is forcing Ukraine to also spread themselves wide in response, but also giving them the opportunity to attack in force on the Sumy front, where they are making significant progress. But arguably this may be a distraction from the main front in Donetsk. The argument for both sides on where to focus attacks and defensive forces remains debateable.

A good broad-spectrum economic analysis.

The summary is that the Russian economy has run out of room in just about every area of the economy to operate. "Kicking the can down the road" isn't cutting it any more. Recent economic moves (including cutting interest rates this week) are transitioning from mid-termism (at the expense of long-term stability) to short-termism (at the expensive of mid-term stability), creating major problems that will come good within months, not years.

For the first time Russian officials are basically admitting how badly things are totally screwed, even Putin saying the military budget needs to start coming down, but nobody seems to have worked out how to get out of the situation (since Putin turned down Trump's absurdly generous peace deal).

This video has a good analysis of the collapse of Russian policing.

Urgh. A possible new record in the war: a Russian recruit signed his contract on 7 April 2025 and was killed in action on 13 April.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 July 2025 - 09:58 PM

[Werthead]

The Russian rail network spanning Rostov and Volgograd Oblasts has been crrippled. Three strikes on Salsk, Orlovskii and Oktyabrsky have halted most rail movements on that line, forcing massive detours further away from the front.

The Kremlin has banned all gasoline exports even for producers. Gas prices in Russia have surged 30% in the last few months.

Aeroflot has suffered a crippling cyberattack by Belarusian and Ukrainian hacker collectives working together. Apparently the company still uses Windows XP and the CEO had not changed his password for three years.

Ukraine had identified a Russian assault group preparing to attack Ukrainian lines in the east. A Ukrainian MiG-29 dropped three GBU-39 SDB guided bombs on the position, killing twenty Russian troops almost immediately. An unknown further number were injured.

Russian forces trying to claim Maliivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, their first actual settlement captured in the oblast. A Russian recon group risked destruction to sneak a flag into the outskirts. They were ejected and the flag cut down.

Ukrainian forces training in Chernihiv Oblast had a narrow escape when they took shelter just before an Iskander missile strike.

Russia has developed a "simpler" Shahed variant called the Italmas. The Italmas is designed to resist jamming. However, the simplification makes it almost impossible to aim at precise targets, so Russia is just lobbing them at cities to cause chaos.

A Russian assault team near Toretsk surrendered to just two Ukrainian soldiers. They'd finally had enough.

Lindsay Graham and Medvedev are exchanging insults on Twitter, a meeting of minds the like of which cannot be fully comprehended.

[Werthead]

The Russian rail network spanning Rostov and Volgograd Oblasts has been crippled. Three strikes on Salsk, Orlovskii and Oktyabrsky have halted most rail movements on that line, forcing massive detours further away from the front.

The Kremlin has banned all gasoline exports even for producers. Gas prices in Russia have surged 30% in the last few months.

Aeroflot has suffered a crippling cyberattack by Belarusian and Ukrainian hacker collectives working together. Apparently the company still uses Windows XP and the CEO had not changed his password for three years.

Ukraine had identified a Russian assault group preparing to attack Ukrainian lines in the east. A Ukrainian MiG-29 dropped three GBU-39 SDB guided bombs on the position, killing twenty Russian troops almost immediately. An unknown further number were injured.

Russian forces trying to claim Maliivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, their first actual settlement captured in the oblast. A Russian recon group risked destruction to sneak a flag into the outskirts. They were ejected and the flag cut down.

Ukrainian forces training in Chernihiv Oblast had a narrow escape when they took shelter just before an Iskander missile strike.

Russia has developed a "simpler" Shahed variant called the Italmas. The Italmas is designed to resist jamming. However, the simplification makes it almost impossible to aim at precise targets, so Russia is just lobbing them at cities to cause chaos.

A Russian assault team near Toretsk surrendered to just two Ukrainian soldiers. They'd finally had enough.

Lindsay Graham and Medvedev are exchanging insults on Twitter, a meeting of minds the like of which cannot be fully comprehended.

[Mentalist]

trump and medvedev are fighting on twitter. it's pretty glorious

India started cutting back on orc oil, which is nice.

situation in SE Donbas is gradually deteriorating. The wedge NW of the Konstyantynivka-Myrnohrad highway is growing, and this puts the Myrnohrad-Pokrovs'k agglomeration at greater risk, as the orcs aim to cut the main supply road from Dobropillya. Small DRGs are already able to make their way into Pokrovs'k outskirts from the SW.

Kyiv was hit with a massive drone strike last night, 15 dead and 145 injured.

Rada repealed the law that subordinated the anti-corruption bureau and prosecution to the Office of prosecutor-general (a presidential appointee). This should be the end of the week-long protests, and restore EU funding.

trump and the US spokespeople in general keep fixating on next Friday as "the very last deadline" for Moscow to end the war. hrm. I'll believe it when I see it.

UAF continues to pound the railway logistics from Volgograd to Rostov. Actual impact isn't evident yet.

HUR raided the Tendrivs'ka Spit across from Ochakiv. Orcs are worried these probes could be hailing another big landing op.

Meanwhile, they are inching along the bank of Dnipro through Kam'yans'ke. UAF not doing too hot there, since the best troops from the area were taken to Sumy. Should the orks reach Stepnohirs'k, they'll be in artillery range to start hitting Zaporizhya (city)

[Werthead]

The Russian government has defaulted on a promised payment to co-finance savings because the government could not find the money.

This is a small default - about 51 billion rubles - but it raises the question what payment they will next default on.

Large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil industry. At least four facilities targeted overnight. Looks like the USA agreed to take the gloves off.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 02 August 2025 - 10:39 AM

[Mentalist]

Ryazan and Novokuybishevsk (Samara Oblast) refineries hit. Novokuybishevsk struck really well, major explosion, probably one of the primary processing units.

Also an oil depot in Voronezh Oblast. An MIC factory in Penza, as well as a Shahed launch point at an airbase in Krasnodar Krai. All in all, an effective night for UA Drone Corps.

Newly independent NABU detained one of the MPs from Zelensky's party on suspicions of bribery in procurement of drones and CEW equipment. National Guard troops also implicated.

putler held a presser with Luka yest. Indicated he's not willing to listen to any ultimatums, and hinted that the "oreshnik" missile entered serial production.

trump decided to one-up Drunken Dima's threats and truthed out that he's dispatched 2 nuclear subs "to appropriate locations". The world observes how far the game of twitter one-upmanship between 2 morons can go.

[the broken]

Nuclear threats... on Twitter. I don't even know how to express my feelings on this.

Quote

A German politician from the AfD Party was found to have made pro-Russian comments but had also secretly spent three months serving in the Ukrainian military earlier this year. He will be expelled from the party.

Which one was he expelled for?


The default... maaay be a big deal, depending on what happens next.

[Werthead]

Russia has dropped a Fuel Air Bomb on a bridge in Kherson city. Amazingly, it failed to destroy the bridge fully, but it did severe damage.

Ukraine has destroyed a series of substations controlling railway movements through Rostov Oblast.

Russian forces fighting along the banks of the Dnipro managed to cross the front in force (after months of nibbling at the edges) and captured the town of Kamyansk. They then advanced north through Plavni and attacked Stepnohirsk, where the over-extended Russians immediately ran headlong into heavy Ukrainian reinforcements. Ukraine has driven them back from Stepnohirsk and Plavni, and is now pushing them back through Kamyansk as well. Interesting to see if they can push south, the manpower situation on this line has been questionable, but the Russian minefields behind the line are significant (Ukraine does have resources it didn't have two years ago that might make penetrating the minefields somewhat easier, though maybe not in large enough numbers).

Russian forces captured the settlement of Zelenyi Hai just south of the Dnipropretrovsk Oblast border, but have been partially driven out by Ukrainian counter-attacks.

The Central Asia-Centre gas pipeline near Volgograd has been hit by explosions, forcing Gazprom to shut it off. This pipeline carries gas from Turkmenistan to Russia and several military facilities.

Five Chechen soldiers were killed when their van was targeted by local partisan forces operating near occupied Melitopol.

Russia has proclaimed victory in their battle for Chasiv Yar, one of the most grinding, longest battles of the war. But it appears to be premature, as Ukrainian forces are now operating in the outskirts again, defeating one Russian infantry group and taking some prisoners.

There is fury and something of a protest in occupied Donetsk city, as residents discovered that water was being trucked in to tend to flowerbeds near government buildings. The city has been without fresh water for some time, with it being supplied by bottles. They also claim priority is being given to the rich and to government officials, and poorer people are frequently running out of water. In some cases, people have been seen collecting water from rainfall and burst mains pipes on the street.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 03 August 2025 - 12:11 PM

[Werthead]

Russia's oil revenues fell by over a third in July alone, just from third-country buyers of its oil noping the F out and switching to other sources. India is now getting slammed with 50%+ tariffs until it stops buying Russian oil, though several Indian companies have already said they're switching to American instead. IOC, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum, and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical Ltd have all ceased purchases of Russian barrels over the past week.

A claim that hepatitis C has broken out amongst Russian troops on the front, due to the sharing of needles whilst taking drugs (some suggestions of both legit medical treatments and less-legit illegal ones). There seems to be some disagreement between OSINT accounts on how bad it is and to what degree it's a problem (possibly the perennial problem of a lot of people wanting it to be true, and maybe exaggerating a minor issue).

Apparently Putin gave positive signs to Witkoff in his visit, whatever the heck that means. Apparently Putin requested a face-to-face meeting with Trump, and Trump agreed on the condition that that meeting accompanies a full end to the war in Ukraine. Putin's response is unknown.

A Russian Mi-28 helicopter was destroyed on its helipad in Tver Oblast, NW of Moscow. The helicopter was one of several moved away from the front after Ukraine targeted them with HIMARS and drones, but the Ukrainians tracked it down in the end anyway.

Russia has apparently ordered its ground forces to focus on the capture of Pokrovsk, and have ordered their forces to encircle the city's southern environs by 1 September.

[Werthead]

Trump will host the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia tomorrow at the White House. They will apparently sign a peace and trade agreement allowing for the economic development of the Zangezur Corridor under American supervision. Apparently the deal will be called "Trump’s Roadmap for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP) (checks this isn't The Onion).

This is a massive deal. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan were firmly part of the Russian sphere of influence recently, before Armenia withdrew from the CSTO (ironically because Russia would not help it against Azerbaijan's attack) and Russia heaped a ton of insults on Azerbaijan for no real reason. America gaining a huge foothold in the area, on the border of Iran as well, is huge.

Reportedly Trump's meeting with Putin will only proceed if Putin agrees to meet Zelensky as well. Putin has said this will not be possible. Trump has also apparently authorised new sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet if a deal has not been reached by Friday.

Putin apparently floated to Witkoff the idea that Russia will withdraw in full from Kharkiv and Sumy in return for Ukraine to withdraw in full from Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson. Ukraine has unequivocally rejected this, but suggested a ceasefire based on the current front line could be up for discussion. Ukraine will not formally recognise the permanent Russian annexation of these regions under any circumstances, and this has been communicated to the United States.

Russian sabotage groups have reached Pokrovsk but failed to penetrate the city perimeter,  being repulsed by Ukrainian forces. Although Ukrainian forces outside the city are continuing to delay the main Russian advance, it appears Ukrainian forces are now preparing the city to become a full-on battleground similar to Avdiivka and Bakhmut.

Ukrainian drones have been spotted carrying reconnaissance over Mariupol, 110km behind the current front line.

Current Ukrainian attacks seem to be focused hard on radar and AA systems in Crimea.

[Mentalist]

There's gonna be a lot of BS about this new trump-putler meeting in the coming week.

Don't think it's worth commenting until we know something certain. And that won't happen until there's been a meeting, and statement afterwards.

Most analysts are saying UA has to make some sort of a localized counter-push (provided they have the reserves, which is questionable) in Aug-Sept, so as to disrupt orc momentum in Donbas. We'll have to wait and see if something audacious happens.

HUR is boastign they destroyed a patrol boat and a radar for the S-500 anti-air system in Crimea.

India seems to be aligning itself with China and Muscovy in response to trade pressure from Trump. Naturally, I don't think that's too smart (they can ask Iran or Syria how reliable Moscow is as an ally these days), but I'd be lying if I said I was surprised (Modi is firmly in the "neo-authoritarian populist Axis" these days).

Gonna be a messed up month in terms of news cycles, I'm guessing.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 08 August 2025 - 08:38 PM

[Werthead]

Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15th. Interesting choice of location on American soil.

Zelensky seems to be hinting that Russia's new private terms for a ceasefire are considerably less maximalist than previous ones, and Ukraine is considering them. Based on comments from various EU leaders, particularly Poland, it sounds like there will be territorial swaps and a broad freezing along the current front, or nearby.

Pluses and minuses to that. It'll probably give Russia Pokrovsk, but the town has been absolutely levelled and its use as a logistics hub ceased to be useful before January, so not as critical a win as that could have been. Any suggestion that it would give Russia Kherson or significant areas beyond the current front seem to have been shot down though (losing the Dnipro as a defensive barrier would be particularly stupid).

Azerbaijan and Armenia have signed a peace treaty in the White House, apparently brokered by Trump and further cementing both countries moving away from Russian influence. Within hours, Russia bombed an Azerbaijani oil refinery operating near Odesa in Ukraine.

[Werthead]

There's more reporting around the deal and it sounds unfathomably implausible. Russia will occupy in full Donetsk and Luhansk. The latter they pretty much control already. Donetsk is about 75% occupied and giving up the rest would mean surrendering several still-occupied, sizeable towns, industrial regions and large areas of significant mineral wealth (including some covered in the Ukraine-US minerals deal). Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka would have to be evacuated and surrendered unfought, which would leave a very nasty taste in the mouth. Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk would also have to be surrendered but these are already on the front line and have been largely to mostly evacuated already.

The totally implausible-verging-on-clearly-BS reporting is that Russia will withdraw from Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast in full. In Zaporizhzhia alone this would return Melitopol, Berdiansk, Enerhodar (including the nuclear power plant), Tokmak, Polohy, Dniprorudne and Vasylivka to Ukrainian control. In Kherson this would involve returning Krynky, Nova Kakhovka and Oleshky, amongst many others. It would mean surrendering the land bridge from Russia to Crimea that they've built a new railway to. I cannot see this flying at all, it would be a hugely embarrassing defeat for Putin.

Other, less hysterical, messaging suggests that Russia will take the rest of Donetsk Oblast, but withdraw in full from Kharkiv, Sumy and other oblasts where they have a marginal presence (the Kilburn Peninsula east of Odesa, which is part of Mykolaiv Oblast). Ukraine would withdraw from its presence in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. There may be additional territorial concessions in Zaporizhzhia, where the front is not aligned to logical geographical features or major population centres. Russia may adjust its constitutional recognition of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to the current front. Ukraine would agree not to join NATO (possibly with a time limit), but there would be no limitation on Ukraine joining the EU or the size of its army or military resupply.

It all sounds like BS to me. I don't see Putin going for much of this. That idea of giving up the rest of Donetsk for getting all of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia back might warrant discussion in Kyiv, but I don't buy Russia would be serious about that for a second.

[Macros]

What cooks me, and has since the start of the war
" the latest round of sanctions will really hurt Russia"

Just do all of the fucking sanctions at once and cripple the bastards.
Ending this war is super easy, Russia, fuck off

[Werthead]

Macros, on 09 August 2025 - 10:07 AM, said:

What cooks me, and has since the start of the war
" the latest round of sanctions will really hurt Russia"

Just do all of the fucking sanctions at once and cripple the bastards.
Ending this war is super easy, Russia, fuck off

Sanctions on Russia directly have probably gone as far as they can (Trump putting tariffs on Russia will do Jack since Russian trade with the US is pretty low). To create greater effectiveness, you need to impose secondary sanctions on countries still trading with Russia, which means sanctioning India and China. India's response has been to double down on its ties with Russia (even if some oil companies have indeed switched to non-Russian imports), so there are political risks there. You don't want India firmly throwing its lot in with Russia.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has recaptured Bezsalivka in Sumy Oblast. They have also conducted significant strikes on Russian oil refineries, including starting a serious blaze at the Saratov facility that continues to burn unchecked. The Ukhta refinery in Komi, more than 1,000 miles from the Ukrainian border, also took a serious hit.

The Arzamas manufacturing facility for electronics and guidance systems for Russian drones and missiles was also hit. The initial fire didn't seem too bad, but then a series of secondary explosions did significant damage to the building.

[Werthead]

This is not promising. Russian forces have breached Ukrainian defensive lines east of Pokrovsk and advanced about 10 km in under 48 hours, which is a substantial advance. Some recon elements may have made it as far as 16km. The advance is very, very narrow, however, and Ukrainian forces are already counter-attacking to try to seal the breach and trap Russian forces behind their lines. It remains to be seen if this is possible.

Analysis of the breakthrough is confused but it appears that some Russian infantry groups broke through the Ukrainian lines in a narrow area and some recon groups are operating between 16 and 18 km behind the front. Several groups have been located and neutralised. Larger Russian forces may have passed through the breach closer to the line and others are trying to follow. Russia may be looking to exploit the breach with reinforcements and "break out" into the Ukrainian rear. It's a tactic that's only worked a few times during the war, but when it has, it has allowed Russia to secure larger chunks of new territory than we've seen before. Ukraine is counter-attacking hard and the situation remains fluid. The Russians seem to be deploying infantry alone with some motorcycles, larger mechanised forces have not yet forced the breach.

On the flipside, the Ukrainian counter-attack on the Sumy axis has gained momentum, with Stepne and Novokostiantynivka now confirmed as recaptured and heavy attacks underway on the remaining areas of the salient.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 12 August 2025 - 11:13 AM

[Mentalist]

Some big name units are being tossed in by the UAF to contain the breach towards Dobropillya.
Some PoW videos being released, as alleged proof that the DRGs that managed it are being "neutralized"

We'll have to wait and see whether this counter-push moves the frontline back down towards Myrnohrad-Konstyantynivka road.

[Werthead]

A Russian Su-30 has crashed in the Black Sea. Russia says it was an accident, Ukraine seems to be hinting they shot it down. It was just SE of Snake Island which is far too close to the Ukrainian coastline and well inside Ukraine's air/sea denial zone over the western Black Sea.

Ukraine has carried out its fourteenth successive night of strikes targeting oil depots, ammo storage areas and railway infrastructure across occupied territories and nearby parts of Russia.