[Mentalist]

728 drones sent against UA last night.

We'll probably be up to 1k by the end of the summer.

UAF launching some counter-strikes to try to stall orc offensives on the Lyman and Pokrovs'k axes; some things are happening in Sumy Oblast, but nothing that's really defnitive- the flank of the incursion is being rolled up a bit, but the main thrust (on the Sudzha-Sumy highway) hasn't actually been pushed back, as of yet.

The orcs also managed to cross the Yanchekrak river and get a foothold in Kam'yans'ke, on the Zaporizhya axis. UAF isn't really well-stocked with reserves to block all of these pushes at once.

[Werthead]

A Russian Gerbera drone flew into Lithuanian airspace and then crashed near the border.

US sources are saying that Russia has lost 100,000 KIA since January. That seems to be tracking with the possible 200,000-300,000 casualties since January. This easily makes this year the deadliest of the war so far for the Russians.

The UK and France are collaborating on building a new production line for SCALP/Storm Shadow. Germany has also developed a plan to buy at least two Patriot batteries from the USA for delivery to Ukraine. The UK is also signing a deal to send 5,000 Thales short-range air-defence missiles to Ukraine.

The United States has approved its first new aid packages to Ukraine since Trump took office, and will speed up delivery of the last packages agreed under Biden. Trump is reportedly furious that Putin apparently hit Kyiv in response to Trump's statements, and is now considering other measures, including possibly agreeing to send capabilities that even Biden didn't approve (what that means is unclear, as some of the more obvious platforms are clearly not happening, like F-35, which would be a gamechanger but would also require specialist resources to maintain that Ukraine does not have, and the training programme is quite long and involved compared to F-16).

A meeting today between Rubio and Lavrov in Kuala Lumpur ended frostily, without any significant agreements or statements.

Ukraine's new AI-powered strike drones have destroyed multiple Buk air defence systems in Donetsk. These drones are using AI to allow autonomous operation in heavy EW areas without being limited by fibre-optic range.

The Russian forces in Sumy don't seem to have AA cover. Ukrainian MiG-29s have been hammering the Russian positions around Oleksiivka for several days.

Russian Shahed production is such that it may be able to sortie around 1,000 drones in a single attack by mid-autumn.

[Mentalist]

Orc TG is worried that UAF is finalizing testing of their ballistic missiles.

Hrm. I'll beleive this when we see a spectacular first launch on sensitive targets.
I'm guessing they'll try to thin out anti-air systems for the next month or so, and then make such a strike in late Aug.

[Werthead]

Some expat Russians with ties inside the country are saying there is widespread horror among the oligarchs and some of the military that Putin turned down Trump's peace deal. They said walking away with all Luhansk, most of Donetsk and maybe half of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia was far more than they expected to be possible in negotiations, with the ability to end the war and begin rebuilding the economy now, and Putin has thrown that out the window. They're worried about economic collapse leading to troops deserting the front in droves, and Ukraine possibly regaining most or all of the territory Russia has taken, which they've said would 100% result in Putin's death or, at best, forced retirement.

Ghana has concluded a security agreement with Ukraine, agreeing to fund the production of Ukrainian drone in return for Ukrainian assistance in using drones to secure its borders. Ghana is concerned about other countries in the region which have concluded security agreements with Russia or Russian mercenaries.

Trump has confirmed he will be making a big announcement on Ukraine on Monday. Based on his statements, it appears that his patience with Putin has worn out and he will be shifting a policy change. The US Senate Armed Services Committee has also approved $500 million in new aid for Ukraine. Trump has also agreed that the United States can sell equipment to European country as long as that equipment is kept for NATO allies or sent to Ukraine.

All remaining equipment restrictions to Ukraine have been lifted. The US air bridge is once again in full operation.

Germany and potentially Greece are considering sending Patriot batteries to Ukraine in return for guaranteed replacements from the US, due in months.

Ukrainian military intelligence, operating in concert with local insurgents, has destroyed a Russian command and operations hub in occupied Melitopol. Melitopol has been a hotbed of local insurgency and partisans ever since it was captured three years ago.

North Korea is now supplying Russia with 40% of its ammunition for the war, particularly artillery ammunition, reflecting Russia's problems in boosting internal manufacturing.

Some indications that Ukraine has decided its skies are safe enough to begin transporting equipment directly into the country by plane. An-124 Ruslan cargo aircraft have been spotted heading towards Poland.

Ukraine has apparently initiated production of the HRIM-2 ballistic missile, with a range of up to 500km. The missile is meant to enhance and ultimately replace Ukraine's imports of ATACMS.

More Columbian volunteers appear to have joined the Ukrainian military.

Russia's significant overnight drone strike destroyed a stables in Odesa, killing several horses. There has been some sarcasm, asking what threat these horses posed to the Russians.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 11 July 2025 - 05:27 PM

[Werthead]

Russian forces are now encircled in Kindrativka, Sumy. The 30th Motorised Rifle Regiment is surrounded and has been urged to surrender by Ukrainian forces. The 9th Motorised Rifle Regiment holding the line nearby has been ordered to break the encirclement and relieve the 30th, but the 9th has reportedly told those issuing the orde to "f--- off," due to their own lack of water and manpower shortages.

Partisan activity around Melitopol and Mariupol seems to be stepping up. A Russian armoured vehicle was destroyed in Mariupol.

South Korean military intelligence assesses that North Korea has supplied Russia with 12 million rounds of 152mm artillery shells, 13,000 soldiers, 5,000 construction workers and 1,000 sappers.

Russia currently only has around 300 Iskander-M and KN-23 missiles in inventory, and around 60 surviving launchers on the front. Russia is currently expending the missiles at a much higher rate than they can produce. Recent attacks focusing on Shaheds over Iskanders suggest Russia may be moving to limit the use of the missiles on the front.

Some rumours that Germany may greenlight Taurus for Ukraine before the end of this month, with some of the arguments against it now evaporating since Ukraine has longer-ranged systems itself in operation.

A heavy Russian assault on Toretsk was beaten back by Ukrainian drone operators, with two tanks destroyed and multiple Russian troops eliminated.

The only bridge linking Vasylivka to the Kamyanske highway was destroyed by a Ukrainian MiG-29 fielding GBU-62 guided bombs. This complicates Russian logistics in the occupied territories.

Russia is urging Iran to accept the "zero enrichment" deal the United States has proposed, with some suggestion that Russia could abandon its support for Iran if it refuses. Now that Russia can mass-produce Shaheds in Russia itself, they arguably have no further need for their positive relationship with Iran.

Current status on EU sanction is that Slovakia has secured a deal for alternate gas supplies. There will be a new meeting on Tuesday where Slovakia may support the sanctions (at last). The EU may coordinate a sanctions deal with whatever Trump proposes tomorrow.

Ukrainian armour engaged Russian fortified positions in Kharkiv Oblast at close range, destroying several fortified trenchlines and allowing Ukrainian forces to advance, albeit slowly.

Recent Russian drone attacks have heavily targeted areas along the Polish and Romanian borders, putting NATO forces on high alert.

Ukrainian agents have blown up an Russian gas pipeline in western Siberia, disrupting supplies across the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug.

The German Skynex AA platform is proving efficient in Ukrainian service. One vehicle destroyed six Geran-2 drones in rapid succession during a recent attack.

Confirmation that at least one Ukrainian Antonov An-124 heavy cargo lifter is now in regular operation. It has flow directly from Kyiv Airport to Leipzig, German to pick up military supplies and returned to base. The Russians are fuming over the possibility a full air bridge could be set up, massively speeding transport times for military supplies into Ukraine. However, Russia is no longer capable of projecting aerial-denial to Kyiv, let alone western Ukraine. 

A German sailboat sailing from Wladislawowo, Poland to Klaipeda, Lithuania was harassed by a Russian submarine, close to Kaliningrad's exclusive economic zone. The Russians claim the boat was close to entering their waters.

Former DPR chief Pavel Gubarev confirms that Russia has sustained well over one million casualties in this conflict, and says they can only succeed through mass casualties and the use of a "serf army." He says the Russian military, even the regulars, are now treated as badly as the DPR and LPR forces were at the start of the war. He now says the "Special Military Operation" is a failure, and should not have been started at all.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 13 July 2025 - 03:24 PM

[Werthead]

The US has agreed to provide Ukraine with a new $10 billion supply of weapons, paid for by European nations and Ukraine. That's the first new tranche of weapons, previous US supplies were drawing on supplies already authorised by Biden. JASSMs might be part of that deal, Patriots definitely will be. "At least" three Patriot batteries will be delivered to Ukraine.

According to Trump, Melania has been a key voice telling him Putin was not to be trusted, and she'd fill him in on cities being hit after he'd had "positive" conversations with Putin. We should note that Russian media has been frequently posting shots from Melania's modelling career to try to embarrass Trump.

Trump has given Russia 50 days to accept a peace deal or the US will impose massive direct and secondary sanctions on the country.

There are currently over 100 wrecked Russian vehicles stretched along the road between Zhovte to Novopustynka, south of Pokrovsk.

A Belarusian Mi-24 helicopter shot down a Russian Gerbera strike drone after it entered Belarus's airspace.

Ukraine is fielding a new "Ursula" unmanned surface vessel. The tiny drone can operate as a recon drone itself and can also carry and launch one FPV aerial drone as well.

Germany has ruled out Taurus, again.

Girkin is saying the Sumy offensive is spent, running out of steam faster and expending more casualties that the Vovchansk offensive last year. He thinks Russia's position will collapse before the end of the year and that Russia is dangerously close to a "WWI" moment.

I don't think anyone else is that pessimistic/optimistic though.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 14 July 2025 - 10:06 PM

[Werthead]

Apparently the United States has authorised Ukraine to use the 300km variant of ATACMS at maximum range. Apparently they already have a bunch in storage, but under their previous deal they could only use them in short-range mode to hit targets in occupied Ukraine or the Russian borderland.

The United States and Ukraine have discussed Ukraine acquiring Tomahawk cruise missiles, though this is not likely to happen imminently.

Ukrainian forces have advanced north and then northwest from Varachyne, Sumy, pushing Russian forces back into Novomykolaivka. The settlement is currently contested. Ukrainian forces are simultaneously pushing from Andriivka northwards. This is leaving the Russian position in Oleksiivka dangerously exposed to encirclement.

Kindrativka remains heavily contested. Some Russian forces may have broken out of the encirclement and withdrawn to Kostyantynivka. That's right on the Sumy-Kursk border. The western end of the Sumy salient seems to be falling, though very slowly. Ukraine seems to have concentrated an overwhelming amount of force in Sumy Oblast, potentially outnumbering the Russians on a local level, explaining why they are having success here.

[Mentalist]

Zelensky is shuffling his cabinet. Not sure what effect that'll have.

Orcs haven't been firing at Kyiv, since Keith Kellogg is there. So instead they've been droning other, less defended cities.

The AN-124 that flew over Kyiv last week was a plane coming out of the Antonov Aviation plant having finished modernization. It's been in maintenance/modernization since 2021, and it's finally been finished. So it flew off to a safe spot in Germany.

[Werthead]

It's the 11th anniversary of Russian-backed separatists shooting down Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over Donetsk, killing 298 people.

The United States is reaching a major new arms deal with Ukraine...to buy Ukrainian equipment. Ukrainian drones, operators and training will be made available to the United States, and Ukraine will provide combat-tested machinery and personnel to help the US catch up in the drone race to China.

Ukraine will now receive five Patriot batteries meant for delivery to Switzerland, and perhaps more from elsewhere.

Ukrainian artillery, aviation and drones have launched a concerted bombardment of the Kilburn Spit, destroying Russian positions and leaving several areas ablaze. After the attack, a Ukrainian flag was spotted flying over the coastal town of Pokrovs'ke. The Kilburn Spit is the far western promontory of Kherson Oblast south of the Dniprio, extending not far south of Mykolaiv and east of Odesa. If Ukraine could take the Spit and roll up Russian forces along the peninsula's length, they could attack into the Russian rear south of the Dnipro, removing the need for a massive offensive across the river mouth (something which the Russians have been attempting now for a year with no success). However, several previous Ukrainian assaults on the Spit, including one that seized a large chunk of the western part of the it, were bottled up by Russian forces. A chunk of the middle of the Spit is effectively swamp, almost impossible to move supplies over in numbers. Still, at least in theory this is a vulnerable spot in the Russian front.

Some claims that Ukraine has liberated Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, in full, but this awaits confirmation.

Anatoly Artamonov, head of the Russian Federation Council Committee on Budget & Financial Markets, has called for "urgent" tax increases to save the weakening economic situation.

Ukraine has carried out a post-operation analysis on an attack it carried out on 2 July. In the strike on Korenevo, Kursk, it hit the forward command post of the 155th Marine Brigade. They killed the deputy commander of the Russian Navy, the deputy commander of the Russian Navy's coastal and ground forces, the commander and chief of staff of the 155th Brigade, and the commander of the 1st Battalion of the 155th Brigade. They also killed the artillery chief, air defence chief, communications chief and drone chief. 20 Russian officers were killed and 30 wounded. Ukraine believes this attack massively disrupted Russian operations for the Sumy Offensive.

[Mentalist]

EU passed 18th package of sanctions.

Apparently, the biggest privately-owned refinery in India is now unable to sell its products to the EU. it is 49% owned by Rosneft, and they were trying to sell their share to the owners of the second-largest importer of Muscovite oil in India. So that's a bit of a pickle for India now.

UAF hitting more chemical plants with drones. Ongoing strikes on Moscow, which continue to disrupt airports, but not to such a degree as before.

[Werthead]

The EU has approved the 18th Sanctions Package against Russia. Slovakia dropped its objections. The package targets Russia's banking, energy and military-industrial sectors and lows the G7 price cap for crude oil to $47.6 per barrel. Nordstream is banned, 20 Russian banks and 105 ships are sanctioned, Rosneft operations in India are bein targeted and Chinese banks that evade sanctions may face restrictions on EU operations. The delays mean that work on the 19th Package is already well-advanced and, with Slovakia and Hungary's criticisms addressed, it could come very soon.

As of this week, the Russian offensive to take Pokrovsk is the longest single Russian offensive of the conflict, and has so far failed to take or encircle the town.

Trump has apparently urged Zelensky to go on the offensive, saying that it was hard to argue for weapons and supplies for Ukraine whilst they were ceding territory. Zelensky agreed, noting that Ukraine has offensive capacity but needs greater quantities of weapons to succeed. This is accurate, Ukraine has a lot of offensive potential now the manpower issues of 2024 appear to have been rectified (at least partially) but it has a mixed record trying to penetrate Russian prepared defences. Some equipment Ukraine has received has shown extreme effectiveness (such as German minefield-clearers, which Ukraine would have killed for in its limited summer offensive of 2023) but has only been provided in quantities to enable raids or short-range advances rather than offensive-level successes.

The Ukrainian Bulava drone, a counterpart of the Lancet, is now in operational use on the front.

Russia has targeted the Chief Rabbi of Kherson, Rabbi Yosef Yitzchak Wolff, with a drone strike on his car. Fortunately, he and his family survived.

Ukraine has attached a fuel air bomb, the FAB-250M-54, to an E-300 Skyranger drone.

Russian mechanised forces attacking near Bilohorivka, losing five armoured vehicles whilst trying to cross a creek near Ukrainian positions. Drones obliterated the armoured formation.

Russian Major General Vladimir Shesterov was officially sentenced to six years in a penal colony today after embezzling 26 million roubles during the construction of Patriot Park in Moscow. As you do.

[Werthead]

Looks like Ukraine has stabilised the part of the Zaporizhzhia front around Orikhiv, retaking several positions previously lost to the Russians.

That's about it, as far I can tell a large chunk of the OSINT community and a chunk of the Ukrainian military took time out (where possible, obviously) watch the Dubois-Usyk fight instead.

[Werthead]

Excellent. Ukraine has completed the recapture of Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, collapsing the SW front of the Sumy offensive. The eastern side is also under concerted attack. Ukraine's goal seems to be to push Russian forces out of Sumy altogether. If the estimates are right, Russia assigned almost 100,000 troops to this offensive and they've accomplished jack sh!t.

52 nations have reaffirmed their support for Ukraine's defence, complete with billions of dollars of commitments for drones, Patriots, Gepard rounds, artillery ammunition and repair parts for F-16s.

A Russian S-300 system has been destroyed in Belgorod.

Ukraine seems to have resumed attacks on Russian railway logistics in Rostov Oblast, striking switching systems, military supply stations and tracks. The strategic rail hub at Kamennolomni took a particularly heavy hit.

Denmark is pairing AI-driven targeting systems with Ukrainian rocket interceptor drones, looking to intercept high-altitude Russian drones.

Ukraine is switching to the use of mobile military recruitment centres, following curious success by the Russians in targeting stationary ones and offices within 100km of the front line (given their inability to hit anything else of value, how they succeeded in targeting these is a curious question).

Ukraine believes it can increase domestic production of all front-line weapons to over 50% by the end of this year.

Russia is using mobile launch platforms for Shahed drones, basically converted Stellantis Ram 1500 trucks. The idea is to avoid having launchers sitting stationary where Ukraine might be able to hit them prior to launch.

Ukrainian aviation is supporting Ukrainian defensive and offensive operations on the Pokrovsk front, where the fighting is very heavy at the moment. MiG-29s were pounding Russian defensive positions (a sentence that will never not sound weird) on the front there, destroying one forwards headquarters.

The Russian aviation service Rosaviatsiya and several domestic passenger providers are locked in a furious argument over compensation for Russian passengers missing flights due to drone alarms. One flight was cancelled and passengers were told to hand over $980 for a replacement ticket, leading to a near-riot in the airport. Rosaviatsiya has refused to compensate the airlines, and they're refusing to take the hit in their own pockets.

Putin has been videoed reading reports that appear to have been printed in massive type. It's been rumoured for a while that Putin's eyesight has deteriorated but he refuses to wear glasses in public, thinking they make him look weak, or get any kind of surgery (if he's near-sighted, that might not be viable).

One cafe owner in Kyiv saying she's reopened her business after it was shut down with missile/drone damage for the sixth time. She has no plans to close or suspend the business permanently. Blitz spirit.

Some rumours that Turkey has stepped in behind the scenes to support Azerbaijan and told Putin to lay off the increasingly confrontation rhetoric between the two countries (the latest is that Azerbaijani intelligence helped Ukrainian forces carry out Operation Spiderweb). Ukrainian combat units have sent military chevrons to President Aliyev, who publicly accepted the gift, causing a "negative" response in Russian media.

The head of Ukraine's drone division has spoken at a NATO meeting in Germany, asking starkly which NATO members, if any, could endure 200-300 Shahed attacks every night without surcease, sometimes surging to twice that.

Apparently over 2,000 Colombian volunteers have arrived in Ukraine to join the military in just the past week.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 06:56 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

Who had Colombian volunteers joining the Ukraine military on their bingo card?

Seems so out of the blue!

[Cause]

Mercenaries Tiste. They are doing it for the pay.

They are in Sudan, Yemen, Mexico and elsewhere

This post has been edited by Cause: Yesterday, 10:10 PM

[Werthead]

Tiste Simeon, on 21 July 2025 - 09:35 PM, said:

Who had Colombian volunteers joining the Ukraine military on their bingo card?

Seems so out of the blue!

They've been doing it through the whole conflict, just not 2,000 at once before.

[Mentalist]

so much hype around the 5 patriot batteries (or maybe launchers) that Germany's supposed to buy for UA "any week now"

As nice as those are, it's insane to expect to use Patriots to repel Shahed attacks. A single missile costs like 50 times as much as a drone, and the orcs are scaling up production, aiming to lauch over 1k drones/night.

It's unfeasible to stop those using hi-tech conventional means. More likely solution is low-cost interceptor drones- and UA is already using those, but they ALSO need to scale up production, because you need numbers to ensure 100% rate interception- and as the orcs are improving their shaheds to include more explosives, any single one making impact is a potential firestorm.

While it looks like the Sumy offensive is getting rolled up on the flank, they did succeed in breaking into Yunakivka, which is the next settlement on the Sudzha-Sumy highway. So that's not ideal.


The orcs are also inching their way to the outskirts of the Pokrovs'k-Myrnohrad agglomeration. DRGs are trying to set up ambushes inside. I'm expecting street fighting to start there by the end of the summer, unfortunately.

So, all in all, war of attrition, as usual.