[Gwynn ap Nudd]

So, maybe I am missing something, but can someone enlighten me on the proposed US brokered peace deal/mineral rights deal?

The US under Trump is not going to give security guarantees to Ukraine. Not that US security guarantees mean very much anyway - just ask the Marsh Arabs, Syrian Kurds or, well, Ukraine. Unless they involve building and staffing large military bases similar to South Korea. Which is not happening anywhere under either party with the current US political climate.

Any military re-supply from the US is going to be charged at the same rates other countries pay, with high interest rates and loans based in US dollars if Ukraine doesn't have the ready cash. Investment from the US would come from the private sector, or again as a loan with high interest. So, what is the US actually bringing to the table that they should be getting anything in return? Based on what they are providing, I don't even see a reason for the US to be a party to the agreement.

Edit:

The better bet to me looks to be to ditch the US in the agreement altogether and aim at a deal brokered through the EU, as the EU is not demanding repayment of loans or mineral rights and represents most of the countries willing to send troops to Ukraine if there is a deal.

This post has been edited by Gwynn ap Nudd: 30 March 2025 - 06:38 PM

[Werthead]

There's been a significant explosion several streets from the Kremlin. A vehicle that is apparently part of Putin's normal motorcade blew up, apparently for no reason. Exactly what happened there is being investigated.

A wild report - 100% unconfirmed at the moment - is that the strike on Engels Airbase damaged a nuclear storage facility and may have released a small amount of radiation into the atmosphere. The "Ukraine nuked Russia in this conflict first" headlines may be a tad exaggerated though.

A Russian platoon was driven back in an assault on a Ukrainian position. They radioed they were redeploying to the flank to try again, but a Russian BMP behind them thought they were retreating and opened fire, killing all the survivors of the initial attack.

A Russian Lorandit EW system in occupied Kherson Oblast was destroyed by local Ukrainian partisans. Ukrainian partisan activity around Melitopol and Mariupol has been ongoing since they fell to the Russians, but this is the first major attack by partisan forces in Kherson Oblast.

Ukraine has heavily fortified the Pokrovsk area, creating a defence network of tunnels, trenches, minefields weapons hardpoints and supply corridors at least twice as dense as the area between Adiivka and Pokrovsk, which took Russia more than 16 months to cover whilst losing hundreds of thousands of casualties. The defences are so formidable that Russia is apparently less keen to attack, shifting its priorities from Pokrovsk to the Zaporizhzhia front and clearing the remaining Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 30 March 2025 - 11:14 PM

[Mentalist]

Gwynn ap Nudd, on 30 March 2025 - 06:31 PM, said:

So, maybe I am missing something, but can someone enlighten me on the proposed US brokered peace deal/mineral rights deal?

The US under Trump is not going to give security guarantees to Ukraine. Not that US security guarantees mean very much anyway - just ask the Marsh Arabs, Syrian Kurds or, well, Ukraine. Unless they involve building and staffing large military bases similar to South Korea. Which is not happening anywhere under either party with the current US political climate.

Any military re-supply from the US is going to be charged at the same rates other countries pay, with high interest rates and loans based in US dollars if Ukraine doesn't have the ready cash. Investment from the US would come from the private sector, or again as a loan with high interest. So, what is the US actually bringing to the table that they should be getting anything in return? Based on what they are providing, I don't even see a reason for the US to be a party to the agreement.

Edit:

The better bet to me looks to be to ditch the US in the agreement altogether and aim at a deal brokered through the EU, as the EU is not demanding repayment of loans or mineral rights and represents most of the countries willing to send troops to Ukraine if there is a deal.

The US is currently still sending out the aid that's been promised by Biden.

The EU continues to operate under the assumption they need to keep the US onboard in European security as long as possible, despite Musk and co sending non-stop signals they DGAF about NATO and US's security "obligations"

Because of this, and because UA cannot continue waging this war effectively without European support, Kyiv can't burn all bridges with US just yet. Because that would make EU angry and panicky, and we can't have that until Europeans are ready to put on their big boy pants and stop hiding in America's skirt.

Once the White House says "we've sent all the aid that was authorized in 2024, and we aren't giving any more", they lose roughly two-thirds of the leverage they have on Kyiv. The remainder being intel sharing (which UAF is trying to replace right now, launching satellites with the Czechs and making intel-sharing arrangements with UK and France), and the existing US sanctions on Moscow (which aren't as important as EU's in raw numbers, but have potential to hurt more, if the US imposes secondary sanctions on those states and companies that violate their 1st order sanctions). But until that point, UA has to play nice.

And, again, if structured fairly, the investment agreement isn't inherently a bad thing. A lot of people back home hope that this will have to cause internal reforms and legislative changes that make for better, more open and less corrupt business practices, which are necessary for Western investment, but the added transparency enforced by the US will also make it better for local businesses. So the idea itself isn't terrible; though its current incarnation obviously is, which is why we haven't heard anythign from Kyiv for a while about what they think about it.

[Gwynn ap Nudd]

That all makes sense. Thanks for the detailed response.

[Werthead]

Ukraine combined two JDAM-ER guided bombs into a single big bunker-buster, and used it to blow up a Russian command post in Kherson Oblast. The bunker was a Soviet-era SAM control bunker, possibly designed to resist nearby nuclear strikes. The post was apparently hit during a command meeting, with an unknown number of casualties. Some of the officers organising the recent (insane) suicide charges across the Dnipro were present.

Despite growing ineffectiveness due to superior EW and interception rates, Russia continues to use glide bombs. They dropped 10,000 every three months in 2024, and have matched that so far in 2025.

Three Russian POWs taken in Toretsk have asked to be transferred to the Russian Volunteer Corps to fight against Putin. They railed against being sent on suicidal missions with no drone, artillery, armoured vehicle cover.

Some Russian units on the front have reported problems getting fresh water, so have been squeezing wet wipes into buckets to drink.

Finnish President Stubb has apparently won the approval of Trump by playing golf with him. Stubb also praised Trump by saying that he is the "only one" who can negotiate a peace because Putin "fears him," and noting that Trump convinced Zelensky to agree to his ceasefire terms. Stubb also proposed an April 20th deadline for peace negotiations, and if Russia does not play ball, the EU and USA should simultaneously hit Russia with massive sanctions and tariffs. I think Stubb is trying to do a "Trump-whisperer" thing, interesting it it works.

Russian crossings across the Oskil have come under heavy drone attack, with multiple pontoons and bridges destroyed. Ukrainian forces also engaged and destroyed Russian positions around Andriivka, on the Kurakhove front. There is heavy fighting here, with some signs that Russia managed to secure the villages of Rozlyv, but Ukraine may have counter-attacked already. The Russians also mounted an offensive on the Kramatorsk front using motorbikes, resulting in 18 motorcyclists being destroyed, along with 5 accompanying vehicles. 

[Werthead]

A Russian Tu-22Me strategic bomber has crashed in Usolski, Siberia and been totally destroyed. Unclear if the crew managed to bail out (one breaking report that the pilot died, a second crewman did bail out and survive).

Girkin's associates have said that the Kremlin is refusing to countenance a further mobilisation, which will cause manpower issues as soon as this year, and Putin may be in denial about how much more effort Russia will need to make to even secure the Donbas, let alone the rest of the claimed oblasts.

At the moment Russian employers are around half a billion rubles behind on their payments to staff. Some construction firms are months behind on paying their staff, electronic firms maybe a month or two behind. So far ordinary Russians are grumbling but carrying on. The situation could deteriorate fast if it becomes a bigger problem.

A cost-benefit analysis of Russia's invasion has shown that the cost for each additional square kilometre of territory is rising, hard. From late 2024 to early 2025 the Russians went from taking 7.1 attacks to 36.4 attacks per square kilometre for the Khortytsia operation group (which has responsibility for the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk fronts). There is a corresponding increase in casualties and the destruction of vehicles and weapons.

Senators Lindsey Graham (Republican) and Richard Blumenthal (Democrat) have launched a bipartisan plan to impose 500% secondary duties on imported goods from all countries that buy oil, gas, uranium and other products from Russia.

Finland has followed Poland and the Baltic States in dropping out of the moratorium on the use of landmines. All four countries now plan to use antipersonnel mines to reinforce their borders.

Britain is sending another 8 retired Puma HC2 helicopters to Ukraine.

Russia attempted to demolish a dam near Popovka, Belgorod Oblast, recently captured by Ukrainian forces, with an FAB-3000 fuel air bomb, to flood the land and prevent a Ukrainian advance (yes, Russia tried to blow up its own dam). They - somehow - managed to miss.

The Ukrainians are celebrating three years since the Russian advance in Kyiv Oblast was defeated after several major engagements and Russia was forced to withdraw in full.

[Macros]

How bad does it have to get before Russians are "grumbling"?

[Mentalist]

Macros, on 03 April 2025 - 04:45 AM, said:

How bad does it have to get before Russians are "grumbling"?

Ionno, a decade of losing half a million soldiers a year?

Things are gonna go slowly, and then (if we get there) things will go very rapidly. It's how these things generally go.

[Abyss]

Macros, on 03 April 2025 - 04:45 AM, said:

How bad does it have to get before Russians are "grumbling"?

Ask the Tsar.