[Gwynn ap Nudd]

So, maybe I am missing something, but can someone enlighten me on the proposed US brokered peace deal/mineral rights deal?

The US under Trump is not going to give security guarantees to Ukraine. Not that US security guarantees mean very much anyway - just ask the Marsh Arabs, Syrian Kurds or, well, Ukraine. Unless they involve building and staffing large military bases similar to South Korea. Which is not happening anywhere under either party with the current US political climate.

Any military re-supply from the US is going to be charged at the same rates other countries pay, with high interest rates and loans based in US dollars if Ukraine doesn't have the ready cash. Investment from the US would come from the private sector, or again as a loan with high interest. So, what is the US actually bringing to the table that they should be getting anything in return? Based on what they are providing, I don't even see a reason for the US to be a party to the agreement.

Edit:

The better bet to me looks to be to ditch the US in the agreement altogether and aim at a deal brokered through the EU, as the EU is not demanding repayment of loans or mineral rights and represents most of the countries willing to send troops to Ukraine if there is a deal.

This post has been edited by Gwynn ap Nudd: 30 March 2025 - 06:38 PM

[Werthead]

There's been a significant explosion several streets from the Kremlin. A vehicle that is apparently part of Putin's normal motorcade blew up, apparently for no reason. Exactly what happened there is being investigated.

A wild report - 100% unconfirmed at the moment - is that the strike on Engels Airbase damaged a nuclear storage facility and may have released a small amount of radiation into the atmosphere. The "Ukraine nuked Russia in this conflict first" headlines may be a tad exaggerated though.

A Russian platoon was driven back in an assault on a Ukrainian position. They radioed they were redeploying to the flank to try again, but a Russian BMP behind them thought they were retreating and opened fire, killing all the survivors of the initial attack.

A Russian Lorandit EW system in occupied Kherson Oblast was destroyed by local Ukrainian partisans. Ukrainian partisan activity around Melitopol and Mariupol has been ongoing since they fell to the Russians, but this is the first major attack by partisan forces in Kherson Oblast.

Ukraine has heavily fortified the Pokrovsk area, creating a defence network of tunnels, trenches, minefields weapons hardpoints and supply corridors at least twice as dense as the area between Adiivka and Pokrovsk, which took Russia more than 16 months to cover whilst losing hundreds of thousands of casualties. The defences are so formidable that Russia is apparently less keen to attack, shifting its priorities from Pokrovsk to the Zaporizhzhia front and clearing the remaining Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 30 March 2025 - 11:14 PM

[Mentalist]

Gwynn ap Nudd, on 30 March 2025 - 06:31 PM, said:

So, maybe I am missing something, but can someone enlighten me on the proposed US brokered peace deal/mineral rights deal?

The US under Trump is not going to give security guarantees to Ukraine. Not that US security guarantees mean very much anyway - just ask the Marsh Arabs, Syrian Kurds or, well, Ukraine. Unless they involve building and staffing large military bases similar to South Korea. Which is not happening anywhere under either party with the current US political climate.

Any military re-supply from the US is going to be charged at the same rates other countries pay, with high interest rates and loans based in US dollars if Ukraine doesn't have the ready cash. Investment from the US would come from the private sector, or again as a loan with high interest. So, what is the US actually bringing to the table that they should be getting anything in return? Based on what they are providing, I don't even see a reason for the US to be a party to the agreement.

Edit:

The better bet to me looks to be to ditch the US in the agreement altogether and aim at a deal brokered through the EU, as the EU is not demanding repayment of loans or mineral rights and represents most of the countries willing to send troops to Ukraine if there is a deal.

The US is currently still sending out the aid that's been promised by Biden.

The EU continues to operate under the assumption they need to keep the US onboard in European security as long as possible, despite Musk and co sending non-stop signals they DGAF about NATO and US's security "obligations"

Because of this, and because UA cannot continue waging this war effectively without European support, Kyiv can't burn all bridges with US just yet. Because that would make EU angry and panicky, and we can't have that until Europeans are ready to put on their big boy pants and stop hiding in America's skirt.

Once the White House says "we've sent all the aid that was authorized in 2024, and we aren't giving any more", they lose roughly two-thirds of the leverage they have on Kyiv. The remainder being intel sharing (which UAF is trying to replace right now, launching satellites with the Czechs and making intel-sharing arrangements with UK and France), and the existing US sanctions on Moscow (which aren't as important as EU's in raw numbers, but have potential to hurt more, if the US imposes secondary sanctions on those states and companies that violate their 1st order sanctions). But until that point, UA has to play nice.

And, again, if structured fairly, the investment agreement isn't inherently a bad thing. A lot of people back home hope that this will have to cause internal reforms and legislative changes that make for better, more open and less corrupt business practices, which are necessary for Western investment, but the added transparency enforced by the US will also make it better for local businesses. So the idea itself isn't terrible; though its current incarnation obviously is, which is why we haven't heard anythign from Kyiv for a while about what they think about it.

[Gwynn ap Nudd]

That all makes sense. Thanks for the detailed response.

[Werthead]

Ukraine combined two JDAM-ER guided bombs into a single big bunker-buster, and used it to blow up a Russian command post in Kherson Oblast. The bunker was a Soviet-era SAM control bunker, possibly designed to resist nearby nuclear strikes. The post was apparently hit during a command meeting, with an unknown number of casualties. Some of the officers organising the recent (insane) suicide charges across the Dnipro were present.

Despite growing ineffectiveness due to superior EW and interception rates, Russia continues to use glide bombs. They dropped 10,000 every three months in 2024, and have matched that so far in 2025.

Three Russian POWs taken in Toretsk have asked to be transferred to the Russian Volunteer Corps to fight against Putin. They railed against being sent on suicidal missions with no drone, artillery, armoured vehicle cover.

Some Russian units on the front have reported problems getting fresh water, so have been squeezing wet wipes into buckets to drink.

Finnish President Stubb has apparently won the approval of Trump by playing golf with him. Stubb also praised Trump by saying that he is the "only one" who can negotiate a peace because Putin "fears him," and noting that Trump convinced Zelensky to agree to his ceasefire terms. Stubb also proposed an April 20th deadline for peace negotiations, and if Russia does not play ball, the EU and USA should simultaneously hit Russia with massive sanctions and tariffs. I think Stubb is trying to do a "Trump-whisperer" thing, interesting it it works.

Russian crossings across the Oskil have come under heavy drone attack, with multiple pontoons and bridges destroyed. Ukrainian forces also engaged and destroyed Russian positions around Andriivka, on the Kurakhove front. There is heavy fighting here, with some signs that Russia managed to secure the villages of Rozlyv, but Ukraine may have counter-attacked already. The Russians also mounted an offensive on the Kramatorsk front using motorbikes, resulting in 18 motorcyclists being destroyed, along with 5 accompanying vehicles. 

[Werthead]

A Russian Tu-22Me strategic bomber has crashed in Usolski, Siberia and been totally destroyed. Unclear if the crew managed to bail out (one breaking report that the pilot died, a second crewman did bail out and survive).

Girkin's associates have said that the Kremlin is refusing to countenance a further mobilisation, which will cause manpower issues as soon as this year, and Putin may be in denial about how much more effort Russia will need to make to even secure the Donbas, let alone the rest of the claimed oblasts.

At the moment Russian employers are around half a billion rubles behind on their payments to staff. Some construction firms are months behind on paying their staff, electronic firms maybe a month or two behind. So far ordinary Russians are grumbling but carrying on. The situation could deteriorate fast if it becomes a bigger problem.

A cost-benefit analysis of Russia's invasion has shown that the cost for each additional square kilometre of territory is rising, hard. From late 2024 to early 2025 the Russians went from taking 7.1 attacks to 36.4 attacks per square kilometre for the Khortytsia operation group (which has responsibility for the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk fronts). There is a corresponding increase in casualties and the destruction of vehicles and weapons.

Senators Lindsey Graham (Republican) and Richard Blumenthal (Democrat) have launched a bipartisan plan to impose 500% secondary duties on imported goods from all countries that buy oil, gas, uranium and other products from Russia.

Finland has followed Poland and the Baltic States in dropping out of the moratorium on the use of landmines. All four countries now plan to use antipersonnel mines to reinforce their borders.

Britain is sending another 8 retired Puma HC2 helicopters to Ukraine.

Russia attempted to demolish a dam near Popovka, Belgorod Oblast, recently captured by Ukrainian forces, with an FAB-3000 fuel air bomb, to flood the land and prevent a Ukrainian advance (yes, Russia tried to blow up its own dam). They - somehow - managed to miss.

The Ukrainians are celebrating three years since the Russian advance in Kyiv Oblast was defeated after several major engagements and Russia was forced to withdraw in full.

[Macros]

How bad does it have to get before Russians are "grumbling"?

[Mentalist]

 Macros, on 03 April 2025 - 04:45 AM, said:

How bad does it have to get before Russians are "grumbling"?

Ionno, a decade of losing half a million soldiers a year?

Things are gonna go slowly, and then (if we get there) things will go very rapidly. It's how these things generally go.

[Abyss]

 Macros, on 03 April 2025 - 04:45 AM, said:

How bad does it have to get before Russians are "grumbling"?

Ask the Tsar.

[Werthead]

The Russians are saying that "some form" of security guarantee may be acceptable for Ukraine as long as it's not NATO.

Russian comms were intercepted ordering the bombing of their own troops as they retreated from a failed attack near Lyman.

Ukrainian partisan activity around Melitopol has stepped up. A Chechen armored vehicle was destroyed with five members of the Akhmat Vostok battalion killed.

Trump's inner circle have apparently convinced Trump not to call Putin unless Putin is ready for a full ceasefire. They've advised that Trump risks looking weak if he calls Putin and then nothing happens.

Russia is building a replacement warship for the Moskva. Weirdly, they're building it in occupied Crimea, well within striking range of Ukraine. One possibility is that none of Russia's other shipyards are capable of building a ship of this size. Still, it seems a ridiculous risk.

Ukraine has apparently resolved several manpower shortage issues through its new compensation scheme for younger recruits and returnees from abroad. In fact, it may have provided more recruits than anticipated. Ukraine has also had a large influx of foreign volunteers.

NATO believes that Russia as has now crossed 900,000 Russian casualties, with at least 250,000 dead. They believe Russia could cross the 1 million threshold by autumn.

Ongoing battles at Toretsk, with Ukrainian tanks now engaged in destroying Russian armoured vehicles. Ukrainian airpower is also directly engaged.

Several Russian wives and mothers of soldiers in the Russian 27th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade have recorded a video asking for more transparency about casualties. They argue that mothers and wives were kept better-informed about their relatives' fates during WWII.

The Czech Republic has confirmed it plans to deliver 1.5 million rounds of artillery ammunition from now until September, equalling the amount for all twelve months of last year in five months this year. He also states that Russian artillery superiority has fallen from 10:1 at the start of the war to under 2:1 now.

[Cause]

I guess Trump is the weak link but this is so crazy. Russia is losing. Not losing in the sense that Ukrainian tanks will be in Moscow by christmass losing, but the losses in money, manpower and tanks is unsustainable. Russia has nukes, so sure to some degree we cant back them all the way into a corner but I also think nukes are a card you can really only play when losing and living in the stone age are equally as bad. Still okay we cant completely crush them but it seems like this is the moment where everyone who can should be putting in the knives. A new round of sanctions, everyone in europe should up the promised the aid. Now that Russia is equivocating at the negotiating table surely even though they have the losing hand surely every hesitation should be punished, every absurb demand countered with more shells, missiles sent to Ukraine to drive home the message that its now or never. The message needs to be the deals not getting any sweeter and every weeks delay means more body bags.

I try to realize my limitations and not dunning-kruger into areas outside my expertise and acknowledge its probably not as simple as it seems but sometimes I think to myseld but it is that simple.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 04 April 2025 - 06:45 PM, said:

I guess Trump is the weak link but this is so crazy. Russia is losing. Not losing in the sense that Ukrainian tanks will be in Moscow by christmass losing, but the losses in money, manpower and tanks is unsustainable. Russia has nukes, so sure to some degree we cant back them all the way into a corner but I also think nukes are a card you can really only play when losing and living in the stone age are equally as bad. Still okay we cant completely crush them but it seems like this is the moment where everyone who can should be putting in the knives. A new round of sanctions, everyone in europe should up the promised the aid. Now that Russia is equivocating at the negotiating table surely even though they have the losing hand surely every hesitation should be punished, every absurb demand countered with more shells, missiles sent to Ukraine to drive home the message that its now or never. The message needs to be the deals not getting any sweeter and every weeks delay means more body bags.

I try to realize my limitations and not dunning-kruger into areas outside my expertise and acknowledge its probably not as simple as it seems but sometimes I think to myseld but it is that simple.

Most countries in the EU ARE stepping up aid. We don't post every single time a foreign dignitary comes to Kyiv and pledges more money, but it's an almost daily occurrence.


US remains the lynchpin, b/c they own most of the effective, high-tech weapons systems that could improve UAF's position significantly (but not drastically, we're past that now).

Both sides are doing most of the damage by drones. Making any advances is increasingly difficult. So in a matter of pure attrition, being able to effectively strike the opponents' logistics and undermine their materiel supply becomes crucial. If Ukraine had long-range capabilities, it could reduce enemy airpower, make frontline supply even more difficult, and attrite the enemy to the point where (almost) no one equipped and fit is manning the trenches anymore.

In the long run, that is still somehting that should happen, if current rates persist; But it can take years, whereas with appropriate support it could be done in months.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has breached the Russian defensive lines around Popovka, Belgorod, and was able to advance half a kilometre further into Russian territory. Russia's 34th Brigade suffered heavy losses and fell back, with the Russian 155th Marine Brigade having to redeploy quickly to plug the hole in the line.

Ukrainian forces are still holding on in Kursk, apparently using a church and the surrounding area as a command post. The church is connected to Ukrainian territory by several tunnels, built months ago, hugely complicating Russian attempts to cut them off from resupply.

Ukraine has fielded new fibre optic drones with ranges up to 30 kilometres. Ukraine has also developed a sensor that can detect the fibre spool from Russian drones and then trace them back to the drone operations base. Several Russian drone operators have been eliminated this way.

Russia's only fibre optic factory in Saransk, almost 1,000km from the front, took a series of drone strikes, damaging the installation.

Two Russian Pantsir air defence systems have been destroyed by Ukrainian drones. Russian forces keep trying to move AA systems closer to the front, especially around Toretsk, where Ukrainian aviation is able to operate. A Buk air defence system was also destroyed in Luhansk.

On the Pokrovsk front, a Russian Bukhanka van drove right up to a Ukrainian position manned by the 59th Separate Assault Brigade. The Ukrainians destroyed the van, which was filled with Russian troops. They remain unclear on why the Russians tried such a suicidal move. The 35th Marine Brigade also destroyed a Russian BMP trying the same thing, though that at least stopped a bit further away and the Russian troops were able to start disembarking before they were stopped by incoming fire, some of it apparently from their own side.

A Russian command post in Soledar (near Bakhmut) was destroyed by air-launched bombs, with at least some Russian command staff eliminated.

The Vatican has donated four humanitarian ambulances to Ukraine.

Ukraine has repulsed a major attack on Kupyansk.

American sources seem to be quietly rolling back expectations of a breakthrough on a ceasefire any time soon.

Crude oil prices are collapsing quickly due to the Trumpcession, but one benefit is that the price Russia can sell oil for is collapsing as well, which is sounding alarm bells in Moscow of increasing loudness.

The EU is preparing a massive fine against Twitter of over $1 billion for spreading misinformation. Allowing Russian propaganda to run unchecked on the platform is a key part of the reason for the fine.

A Russian Z-blogger has suggested that Russian forces routinely sweep occupied land, even in long-held, Russia-friendly Luhansk and Dontesk oblasts, and execute anyone they even vaguely suspect of being Ukrainian sympathisers or collaborators and throw them in "large" pits. This is why they've refused to look for the body of missing American Russell Bentley, as he was likely thrown in one of those pits. They suggested the death toll in Donetsk alone could be well into the thousands.

Russian discontent over casualty levels is starting to seep out a little bit. We've already seen complaints about Russian soldiers being kept on the official lists despite going MIA (and probably KIA) over two years ago, so they don't have to provide the pay-outs to the families. Some Russian media, normally pro-Kremlin, has even started demanding that a death registry be kept, which the military says it doesn't have time to organise.

Russian soldiers continue to be caught on video and in pictures looting and stealing from abandoned homes. Except this time it's in Kursk Oblast, which is actual Russian territory. 

Russia has been filmed sending "new" equipment to Ukraine, namely WWII-era 152mm M1937 (ML-20) howitzers, produced from 1937 to 1947.

Several devices washed ashore in the UK appear to be Russian underwater sensors, possibly scanning for signs of British submarine movements.

A Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih killed nineteen people, nine of them children aged 3 to 16. Ukrainian sources have said there have been recent upgrade packages for both the Kalibr cruise missile and the Shahed drone to make them more evasive to Ukrainian AA fire, not to mention Ukrainian forces are being more conservative with weapons supplies. The Shahed upgrade may have been partially accounted for already, but the Kalibr upgrade is trickier to intercept, especially with Ukraine trying to preserve Patriot interceptors.

[Garak]

Meanwhile Russian hybrid war against Romania continues. TikTok channels that used to promote Georgescu as a next President (and have achieved the aim of creating political instability) are now promoting the idea of Romania joining Russia, to be under Putin and to attack our true enemy, the EU. Of course we have morons who cheer when they see this, self declared nationalists and sovereign rule obsessed nitwits who cheer for Putin, Orban, Trump etc. The emissary our OM sent to Trump has been caught denigrating the EU and making anto-EU noises, because of course.

Next month's election are going to suck and be nerve wracking. We have way to many people pissed off at the various parties and politicians and willing to try whatever else, like the US did with Trump the first time.

[Mentalist]

Garak, on 07 April 2025 - 10:07 PM, said:

Meanwhile Russian hybrid war against Romania continues. TikTok channels that used to promote Georgescu as a next President (and have achieved the aim of creating political instability) are now promoting the idea of Romania joining Russia, to be under Putin and to attack our true enemy, the EU. Of course we have morons who cheer when they see this, self declared nationalists and sovereign rule obsessed nitwits who cheer for Putin, Orban, Trump etc. The emissary our OM sent to Trump has been caught denigrating the EU and making anto-EU noises, because of course.

Next month's election are going to suck and be nerve wracking. We have way to many people pissed off at the various parties and politicians and willing to try whatever else, like the US did with Trump the first time.

you guys realize they don't refer to you as anything other than gypsies, right?

Romania realigning with Muscovy would be an exceptionally bad idea, especially since Orban got there first, and he has wet dreams about taking back Transylvania for the sake of his Greater Hungary.

[Garak]

Oh I know that but it's like telling the MAGA crowd that Trump is screwing them over.

[Maark Abbott]

Macros, on 03 April 2025 - 04:45 AM, said:

How bad does it have to get before Russians are "grumbling"?

Is funny because heavy anti air missile Grumble, yes!



No but in seriousness hopefully not long.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has unveiled its new Shahed-interceptor drone. The drone has destroyed 20 Shaheds during its prototype testing phase before going into full production.

Ukrainian aircraft are now able to hit ground targets from further outside Russian AA range, using AASM HAMMER bombs on targets in Bryansk Oblast. Russia has a dwindling number of S-300 and (especially) S-400 systems it can deploy near the front and has been pulling these back in favour of shorter-range Buk and Pantsir systems. However, these are much less effective.

The Ukrainian engineer corps has improved its ability to remote-detonate minefields and clear dragons' teeth anti-tank obstacles. They were able to breach Russian lines in record time to allow the Ukrainian incursion in Belgorod Oblast.

Ukraine has confirmed the destruction of a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber on a Russian airfield just as it was landing.

Almost 160 Ukrainian drones hit targets across Kuban, Rostov, Saratov and Oryol overnight, including hitting the Mozdok Airbase.

Ukraine's 72nd Mechanized Brigade engaged and destroyed 14 Russian armored vehicles (including 5 tanks) and neutralised 53 infantry, apparently somewhere on the Pokrovsk front. Fighting has stepped up recently and Russian forces have re-entered Shevchenko.

Some Ukrainian sources suggesting that Putin may accept a division of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in a final peace deal, but not Luhansk and Donetsk, which he has directed his forces to fully capture. He has also ordered Russian forces into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, possibly to create the conditions for a land-swap deal later on. Ukrainian forces are fully engaged.

Ukrainian forces hit the command post of the 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces at Oleshky Airbase. Between 20 and 30 officers are believed to have been neutralised. This is the fourth or fifth such surgical hit on a command staff headquarters in the last couple of weeks, indicating Ukraine has improved its gaining of intelligence on Russian officer movements and locations. Other Russian units have apparently moved their command posts further from the front, with a corresponding drop in efficiency.

In one of the dumber moves of the war, Russian armored vehicles apparently attempted a direct crossing of the Oskil River near Kupiansk, resulting in a BMP-2 sinking into the river, drowning all on board.

Ukrainian special forces eliminated a Russian soldier accused of involvement in the Bucha massacre. He was tracked down and eliminated in Kursk Oblast.

Russia's oil revenue has dropped by 10% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2025. This has caused alarm in the Kremlin, where it is directly impacting Russia's anticipated funds available for the coming year, including the military budget.

Two Chinese nationals were captured fighting for Russia. China and Ukraine are in discussions over the situation. One of the Chinese nationals has apparently said he is a criminal back in China and joined the Russian army to get a Russian passport, as he could not return to China. Ukraine believes around 150 Chinese nationals have joined the Russian military.

[Werthead]

Very heavy engagements across the front. Two significant armoured assaults at Toretsk which were defeated. Another armoured attack at Kupyansk was fended off. Some moderate Russian advances were recorded near Burlatske (on the Velyka Novosilka front, west of Kurakhove).

Incoming German Chancellor Merz has ruled out Ukrainian accession to NATO or the EU whilst the conflict continues.

Russia has amassed over 60,000 troops on Russian soil in Kursk Oblast, which are being used to press into Sumy Oblast (with little success so far) and trying to retake the last part of Kursk held by Ukrainian forces (no luck there either). Ukraine is concerned about a major Russian push into Sumy, but has assigned reinforcements.

Ukraine now says its combat strength has reached 110 active combat brigades, which they estimated at almost twice those available to the rest of Europe. Ukraine's 2014 combat strength was a mere 18 brigades, and this had risen to 75 brigades at the start of 2022 and maybe 100 by the start of 2024. Norway has agreed to train and equip one new combat brigade; France has agreed to do this with two.

Ukrainian count is now 140,000 Russian casualties inflicted since the start of 2025 alone. 

Ukrainian combat medics from the 14th Brigade saved a wounded soldier's life by performing a blood transfusion there and then, still under enemy fire. This is how Ukraine's survivability rates on the front are dwarfing those of Russia.

Russia has fired 67,000 guided aerial bombs and launched over 22,000 Shahed drones in the conflict to date. 

A Ukrainian F-16 pilot was reported KIA this week but no word on the status of his F-16. If it was lost as well, that would be the first F-16 confirmed lost in the war.

The Russian Saratov airbase has taken a massive hit. Possibly an aircraft or fuel or ammo storage unit was hit next to the main runway.

Ukraine is apparently moving to build missiles compatible with its Patriot launchers and even "FrankenSAM" systems using a combination of their own materials and spare parts. This is an acknowledgement that fresh Patriots and missiles might be in short supply in the foreseeable future.

Russian air defences around Moscow went on alert last night and opened fire on one of their own choppers before they realised their mistake. The chopper escaped unharmed.

Estonia has detained a vessel from the Russian "shadow fleet."

An oil refinery in Komsomolsk-on-Amure caught fire two nights ago, despite being 7,000km from the front in the Russian Far East. Unclear as to the cause.

The President of Poland has taken a flattering tack with Trump, saying he's the only hope of ending the war any time soon. Kelogg has proposed a plan to freeze the war on the current front, whilst Witkoff apparently suggested handing over all of unoccupied Zaporiazhzhia, Donetsk and Kherson without a shot being fired. Trump, at least, seems to think that plan was batty.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has field-tested its Tryzub laser weapon. The weapon appears to be effective against drones, bombs and missiles at 3,000 metres and aircraft, helicopters and recon drones at 5,000 metres. This is a significant improvement in range over previous AA laser systems.

A Russian ballistic missile attack on Sumy has killed 34 people and injured at least 117, whilst damaging several dozen buildings. The attack is the deadliest hit on civilian targets in Ukraine since last year.