[Mentalist]

Orcs whining that UA's CEW measures have become effective in jamming the satellite correction systems in the guided glide bombs, thus making them ineffective in the frontline zones.

Situation in Torets'k is unclear; the orcs posted a video of a Uki armored vehicle gettign droned in the city centre. All this really means is that the city remains contested.

25th Airborne reported they've "regained control" over the village of Kotlyne. This is the tip of the southern pincer that was attempting to encircle Pokrovs'k. DeepState's map indicates that the gains were modest, and the orcs continue to have cut the supply road and rail into Pokrovs'k, so this isn't a major counter-attack as of yet.

There was a major drone strike in crimea and krasnodar Krai 2 nights ago. The oil refinery and harbor terminal in Tuapse (on the Black sea coast in Krasnodar Krai) got hit, as well as several airbases around Sevastopol. Along with degrading anti-air coverage in Crimea, the goal here is to continue disrupting the orcs' exports/logistics infrastructure.

Zelensky is on his way to Washington to meet with Trump and sign... something. Based on the leaked text, it's merely a "statement of mutual intent" that doesn't contain any concrete details that could make it binding. Still, that allows Trump to claim it as a major diplomatic coup he can crow about to his base, and also to "justify" ongoing support.

helpfully, Lavrov started spewing BS about inability to stop RN, "b/c we have a Constitution, and it includes other territories"- meaning, they don't intend to go for a ceasefire until they control Kherson and Zaporizhya- which is something about as likely to happen as Putler coming to Kyiv.

[Werthead]

Apparently Trump has agreed to extend sanctions against Russia for another year, which would be a good move.

Turkey has offered to station peacekeepers in Ukraine, and has reportedly made the offer directly to Lavrov, suggesting they would be more acceptable than peacekeepers from the UK or France. Lavrov's response was unclear.

Sladkov is saying that that the war is "winding down" and Russia will emerge from the conflict with "great power" status reinstated. Girkin contradicts that, saying he thinks Trump is playing Putin for an idiot to get a mineral deal in Ukraine and will then back Ukraine to the hilt for another year or so until Russia's economy collapses, at which point Russia has to fold or start WWIII.

Zelensky on his way to the USA. He stopped in Ireland on the way and met politicians there.

[Mentalist]

Sladkov is a mouthpiece of state TV regardless of his frontline voenkor status, so his sweeping statements shouldn't be paid much attention to. At the same time, Girkin is an imprisoned doomer, so he's prone to catastrophizing.

Given what happened in Donbas, I am extremely skeptical of a "stable" ceasefire. Only way to feasibly make it work would be a drastic reduction of the active frontline, which is not something I see Moscow agreeing to, as it would mean a reversal of a lot of their gains. That scenario is being floated around in some of the more esoteric speculative corners of the runet, but it feels too incredulous to believe right now.

[Werthead]

Sladkov's messaging may by interesting if it is switching to possibly preparing the groundwork for some kind of end to the war. It's arguable if this is that. Putin does seem keen to end the war by the start of May, but there is absolutely 0% chance of achieving his goals of taking all of the four Oblasts by then (Luhansk is closest and not quite there, but Zaporizhzhia is far, far off, Kherson is almost impossible and Donetsk will still take years of gruelling combat). And Trump can't convince Ukraine to give up uncontested land.

The main problem for Russia is that they'd "have" to leave a massive standing army on the frontline even if they didn't plan to attack (take that with a grain of salt the size of Trump's ego), as they'd have no choice but to assume Ukraine might swoop in to liberate territory the second the opportunity arises (even if Ukraine didn't plan to do that). And the cost of that is going to be freaking insane, and doesn't help Russia's potential economic meltdown. I'm seeing a lot of Russian furrowed brows at how a peace might still totally screw them over even if Putin sells it as a victory.

[Mentalist]

The greater irony that everyone that's looking at least 2 steps ahead can appreciate it is that Putler is fast-tracking the return to great power politics where the weak get mercilessly carved up by the strong.

While Muscovy itself, with its abysmal demography, depleted Soviet weapons stockpiles and shaky economy is basically being held together by the duct tape that is the brownbeaten populace's sullen belief that there are no alternatives to Putler himself. But this picture will seriously fray the moment he is removed due to biological inevitability.

At which point, the West, the East, and the aspiring Muslim South will all be taking a serious and hungry look at the loads of sparsely populated territory that's got the entire periodic table just lying around.
The fact that it's taken them over 6 months with no real success to address the Kurs'k' incursion makes it obvious to basically anyone that Muscovy doesn't actually have the capacity to seriously defend its territorial integrity. And the threat of nuclear retaliation is significantly diminished already, and will be even more so in a situation where you don't have a long-established leader to take that responsibility.

[Mentalist]

Well, that was... Something


Fuck me sideways.

Question now is, wtf will Europe do?

[Lady Bliss]

I wasn’t actually surprised with Trump’s man crush with Putin bleeding out. Hopefully Europe steps up.

[Tapper]

 Mentalist, on 28 February 2025 - 07:25 PM, said:

Well, that was... Something


Fuck me sideways.

Question now is, wtf will Europe do?

Verbally side with Ukraine, debate endlessly over more help and what kind of weaponry would not overly antagonise Russia, while each country rebuilds its own capabilities at its own pace. Funding is one thing, but finding capable people willing to serve is an entirely different issue.

That being said, potentially using the construction created for Covid emergency funding superseding the budget norms now also for military buildup was a surprisingly adroit development. I hope the EU sees that through, but right wing clowns like Orban will slow it all down, doubly so since it pleases both Trump and Putin.

If the EU is serious about its security and about speaking with one voice, it should consider suspending the membership of countries like Hungary.

Finally, they may make some decision on allocating the Russian assets to Ukrainian armaments rather than using it for rebuilding its economy.

Now, what will China do? The current situation seems great for them anyway, with the US isolating itself. However, do they dare to step into the vacuum openly, or do they just continue to quietly sponsor Russia?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Tapper, on 28 February 2025 - 07:50 PM, said:

Funding is one thing, but finding capable people willing to serve is an entirely different issue.

Unless those "people" are killer robots... who can also be better adapted to their tasks than standard humanoids. Semi-autonomous drones can already go a long way towards this.

And far more people will be willing to volunteer if they can remotely pilot drones or other robots (even better if they're semi-autonomous and so require less skill and supervision). Especially if it can be done from a long and comparatively very safe distance. Like just another video game. Humans in the Russian military could even have their image on the screens given metallic "robot skin" and robo-orc faces to help people forget that they're killing other people (so long as it doesn't mess with targeting, and friendly fire isn't a major issue...).

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 28 February 2025 - 09:34 PM

[Chance]

Mentalist, on 28 February 2025 - 07:25 PM, said:

Well, that was... Something


Fuck me sideways.

Question now is, wtf will Europe do?

Probably to be decided in the UK meeting that is upcoming, but likely continued and expanded support with the hope that a peace is not too far away. While much of europe is rearming at a speed not seen since the cold war.

As for trump most likely I think they will give him the middle finger politely after the threats he have made already, he is simply not reliable enough to be an ally to anyone and hoping that he and his only get 4 years. Which seems rather likely at the current pace of annoying even parts of their own base.

This post has been edited by Chance: 28 February 2025 - 09:53 PM

[Werthead]

Quote

Now, what will China do? The current situation seems great for them anyway, with the US isolating itself. However, do they dare to step into the vacuum openly, or do they just continue to quietly sponsor Russia?

China was falling over themselves to make friends in Europe and they sounded like they were happy to sell Russia down the river to do it. They even said, quite openly, that if Europe could help them get more resources than Russia can supply, they'd look very carefully at a deal with Europe over one with Russia.

China is also absolutely 150% unhappy with the North Korea-Russia relationship, which was done without consulting them, and North Korea attempting to sidestep its economic dependence on China, which China likes since it means China can lean on them not to, for example, start a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula which would be one bad change of wind direction from irradiating northern China.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 February 2025 - 10:05 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 28 February 2025 - 09:42 PM, said:

Quote

Now, what will China do? The current situation seems great for them anyway, with the US isolating itself. However, do they dare to step into the vacuum openly, or do they just continue to quietly sponsor Russia?

China was falling over themselves to make friends in Europe and they sounded like they were happy to sell Russia down the river to do it. They even said, quite openly, that if Europe could help them get more resources than Russia can supply, they'd look very carefully at a deal with Europe over one with Russia.

China is also absolutely 150% unhappy with the North Korea-Russia relationship, which was done without consulting them, and North Korea attempting to sidestep its economic dependence on China, which China likes since it means China can lean on them not to, for example, start a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula which wouldbe one bad change of wind direction from irradiating northern China.

But will the EU let them get away with attacking Taiwan without sanctions like those now being applied to Russia?

Russia would almost certainly agree not to provide much aid to North Korea in exchange for greater aid than North Korea could supply... if it came to that. IDK how much China would really have to gain from helping Russua conquer Europe, aside from their share of the spoils; but much of Europe's economic output would be spoiled (either as accidental casualties of war or intentionally sabotaged---spoiled spoils, cut short). But if the EU cuts off trade anyway in retaliation for China seizing Taiwan, they could get more out of the EU than they'd be getting otherwise.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 28 February 2025 - 10:01 PM

[Werthead]

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan looked likely in the nearish future, but China's recent underwhelming economic performance seems to have given them pause. They badly need full access to Europe's markets for their electric cars, otherwise they have nowhere to really offload them to (their Middle Eastern and African partners can't really afford them in the required numbers). So if they can drive a wedge between Europe and the US, get Europe to open their trade markets to a deal (though Germany is fiercely opposed, due to its own car market, and France isn't in love with the idea either), they might look at postponing any military adventurism in Asia.

It's all a bit of a mess though. China might say screw it and go for it anyway. Xi wants to reunite China on his watch and he is not getting any younger.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 28 February 2025 - 10:08 PM, said:

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan looked likely in the nearish future, but China's recent underwhelming economic performance seems to have given them pause. They badly need full access to Europe's markets for their electric cars, otherwise they have nowhere to really offload them to (their Middle Eastern and African partners can't really afford them in the required numbers).

The art of the deal: they do Putin sufficient favors, and perhaps suddenly Trump (or his successor) has a miraculous change of heart about allowing EV imports from China?... He might even try to force Canada and the rest of the world to allow them by threatening tariffs (or worse...).

Of course China helping Putin invade Europe beyond Ukraine would almost certainly be at least a few years away. If the hot war in Ukraine stops, the estimates I've seen are at least 3 to 5 years before Putin will be ready to launch a new set of major assaults, if he even lives that long. Lots of time for robotics and AI to develop. As Putin declared back in 2017:

Quote

the country that takes the lead in the sphere of computer-based artificial intelligence (AI) will rule.

"Artificial intelligence is the future not only of Russia but of all of mankind"

Who Vladimir Putin thinks will rule the world - CNN (2017)

The more China appears to distance itself from Russia and ally itself from the EU and European NATO nations now, perhaps the more easily they'll be able to station potential Chinese military assets or equipment in or near them, the better to betray them at the optimal time---if they time their invasion of Taiwan to coincide with Russian attacks on Europe, and American attacks on where ever.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 28 February 2025 - 10:50 PM

[Mentalist]

reposting my thoughts from another forum

I'm trying to think through the most generous interpretation of events. The fact that Ze was hosted in the Oval Office is brought up by some as indication that this was supposed to be a less formal event, where the sides exchange some pleasantries and then sign the paper that is a heavily cut down statement of intent and leave it at that. Everyone claims diplo-success, Trump saves face at home, aid keeps flowing, long live status quo.

The fact that Ze brought photos of UAF PoWs returning from Muscovite captivity suggests he wanted Trump to push on that point as a potential goodwill gesture- the "all for all" prisoner swap that UA's been pushing for, as a first step in a potential peace process. That's something Trump could have pushed for in the hypothetical future meeting with Putler. That's also a big point of domestic pressure (there's still hundreds of Azovstal' defenders that haven't come home)

Trump being Trump, I can see how this would lead to his opening tirade about Ze having hatred and distrust of Putler. (Which is obvious).

At which point, Vance jumps in to indicate that "this time the peace process will be meaningful, b/c we're different".

And here Ze starts making it a more substantive discussion, by pointing out that any peace framework would require guarantees that it won't be broken. He wasn't the most eloquent here (again, I blame lack of translator). When you're dealing with simple folks, you need to get to the point quicker. Did this come off as disrespectful? I mean, it would, to people that want to see the insult. Which, given Vance's general animosity towards UA, and Trump's overall dislike of Ze and ambivalence towards UA as a whole, yeah, I can see that happening. But to a normal, neutral party, that's aware of the context (Muscovy repeatedly violating treaties, breaking promises, and getting away with next to no repercussions)? No, I think It's quite reasonable- though, again, not articulated in the best way for this audience.

(if we take the stuff in Para 1 as given, then Ze may have breached protocol by trying to make a glorified photo op more substantive. Though, again, the question is, why didn't Rubio, Waltz, Vance, or any White House functionary jump in to say "the press part is over now"?)

In any case, at this point, both Trump and Vance start to openly toss barbs at Ze, and he can't resist replying about the potential impact on the US. As someone Ukrainian born, but not a resident for many years, but also someone who works with words in English for a living, this is probably the only part of the conversation where I'd say he let himself get carried off-topic, and gave the hosts extra reasons to feel unreasonably insulted (although, as established earlier, it's pretty damn obvious both T and V were ready to get insulted at the smallest perceived slight). This wasn't the first shot fired his way, so I imagine majority of his Ukrainian constituents will give him their sympathy, but this is where I'd do a facepalm if I was part of the Ukrainian delegation.

When Trump starts flexing his advantage over Ze, there's basically nothing to do other than adopt the Spartan defense (which T actually acknowledges with the "you'll die well without our support" comment. I don't think he realized how petty that made him sound), so I can't really say much more about that. Full marks for Ze for this part.

(All of this ignores the obvious elephant in the room that as soon as the first sparks started flying, someone competent should've said "get the media the F out of here, we'll continue this conversation in private". And the lack of such an order weighs heavily towards it being a pre-meditated media ambush, rather than a colossal diplo fuckup). And we're not even talking even more obvious "Trump is acting in concert with Moscow and Bejing. Again, I'm trying to work through this being as generous as possible to Trump and co--that tiny possibility that this all started out in good faith-- and I still can't see it as anything other than a monumental failure of the Admin involved.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 28 February 2025 - 01:04 AM, said:

The greater irony that everyone that's looking at least 2 steps ahead can appreciate it is that Putler is fast-tracking the return to great power politics where the weak get mercilessly carved up by the strong.

While Muscovy itself, with its abysmal demography, depleted Soviet weapons stockpiles and shaky economy is basically being held together by the duct tape that is the brownbeaten populace's sullen belief that there are no alternatives to Putler himself. But this picture will seriously fray the moment he is removed due to biological inevitability.

At which point, the West, the East, and the aspiring Muslim South will all be taking a serious and hungry look at the loads of sparsely populated territory that's got the entire periodic table just lying around.
The fact that it's taken them over 6 months with no real success to address the Kurs'k' incursion makes it obvious to basically anyone that Muscovy doesn't actually have the capacity to seriously defend its territorial integrity. And the threat of nuclear retaliation is significantly diminished already, and will be even more so in a situation where you don't have a long-established leader to take that responsibility.

Russia's sparse population may not be such a major disadvantage if warfare transitions to being primarily via autonomous robots---provided they can acquire enough (perhaps they could entice some of Trump's tech backers by leveraging the possibilities afforded by Putin's mature authoritarian control and pariah status among "ethical" nations (at least until Trump catches up)---for example to force people to train robots, humanoid or otherwise; or allowing them to test killer robots on prisoners). And when AI for robotics does advance that far, the massive Russian casualty count in the current war will mean fewer people to pay universal basic income (or worry about having too much free time in which to plot rebellion). When humans are just getting in the way of robots, a sparse population may be a positive---the sparser the better, perhaps. (More space for robots to be virtuous.) And Putin could arrange that too, perhaps while testing out some bioweapons---as the saying goes, to kill two countless birds with one bioweapon.

Given how reclusive Putin has been and advances in generative AI deepfakes and robotics, his successors could even make it seem as though Putin is still alive. It's not like anyone would be likely to yank off robot Putin's face on camera. His handshake might have to be warm and firm, but again I doubt anyone would successfully yank Robo-Putin's hand off to wave it at the live camera broadcast.

Of course this may seem very far-fetched in the short-term, since autonomous robots still have a ways to go before replacing skilled "blue collar" workers, and estimates vary on how long that will take. But Putin, like Xi, has tended to focus on the longer game. (He may even believe---or at least pray---that he'll live long enough to become an immortal cyborg, until Go* chooses to take him to Heaven.)

Quote

Putin plays the long game. He has punished Ukraine – and he won't stop there

[...] Those who know Putin well say the philosophy he lives by is similar to that of judo – a sport he has practised since his youth. In judo, you stay close to your opponent and wear them down until they give up. Despite the failure to achieve his goals in [Ukraine in] 2014, Putin abandoned nothing. The full-scale invasion of 2022 confirms this.

More than once, Putin and his spin doctors have insisted that Russia is not at war with Ukraine, but with the west in Ukraine. He sees Ukraine as an artificial nation, created by the west to subvert Russia's power. Independent Ukraine is guilty by the very fact of its existence. Truce is possible in such a war but not peace – just as there could be no peace in the war between Rome and Carthage.

[...] Many in the west are ignoring his long-term ambitions now, just as they ignored them in 2008. But if history has anything to teach us, one of its lessons is this: you cannot appease an aggressor who is thinking long-term. Ukrainians learned this the hard way. Prior to the full-scale invasion of 2022, we were warned about the war but we didn't want to believe it. It is probably human nature to mobilise only once a threat becomes real.

I would love to be wrong, but my historian's gut tells me that in February 2022 the world entered a decade of war. The saying "if you want peace, prepare for war" remains as relevant after three years of war in Ukraine as it has been for 2,000 years.

- Yaroslav Hrytsak, historian and professor at the Ukrainian Catholic University - The Guardian

And what has Putin said the long game hinges on more than anything? Artificial intelligence---which could also be the solution to Russia's demographic problems, and Putin's own mortality.

[QuickTidal]

When Zelenskyy said “you will feel it too” and Trump absolutely lost it. Zelenskyy is right, when Russia is done with Ukraine, a destabilized USA is next.

I got vibes of Obi-Wan to Boss Nass “if they take control of the surface they will take control of you, you must understand this” except Instead of listening this triggered trump because he probably thinks this is a possibility from Putin deep under his narcissistic shell and it scares the shit out of him.

[Werthead]

Russia is using donkeys to deliver supplies to the front, they're not building a massive robot army to do anything in the near future. Ukraine did use ground drones to take one village, but there seems to have been an acknowledgement it was very expensive and it's not practical to roll out on a large scale, at least at the moment.

[QuickTidal]

Werthead, on 01 March 2025 - 04:10 PM, said:

Russia is using donkeys to deliver supplies to the front, they're not building a massive robot army to do anything in the near future. Ukraine did use ground drones to take one village, but there seems to have been an acknowledgement it was very expensive and it's not practical to roll out on a large scale, at least at the moment.

Did I say it would be immediate, or what shape it would take wert? I did not.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 01 March 2025 - 04:10 PM, said:

Russia is using donkeys to deliver supplies to the front, they're not building a massive robot army to do anything in the near future. Ukraine did use ground drones to take one village, but there seems to have been an acknowledgement it was very expensive and it's not practical to roll out on a large scale, at least at the moment.

Thought it was pretty clear that I wasn't referring to the near term there ("longer game", 3-5 years, robots not being ready to mostly replace people yet, etc).

From last June:

Quote

What Could Go Wrong? Russia Vows to Develop Autonomous Drones

[...] TASS reported on June 4 that efforts are underway in Russia to develop more capable autonomous drones in the next three to five years.

[...] the Kremlin is known to be taking the lead in developing semi-autonomous platforms. These have included land-based and aerial armed drones that can operate remotely and with limited human input. In May, news circulated that Russian forces had deployed the Scorpion-M "kamikaze robot" in the Donetsk region. It is about the size of a small radio-controlled car, but the Scorpion-M can carry more than 55 pounds of explosives and can seek out targets that might escape aerial bombardment, Fox News [gleefully?] reported.

Russia—and the United States—stood in the way of formal United Nations efforts to block any ban on killer robots, and the technology seems to be advancing rapidly. While there is plenty of reason for concern over U.S. efforts with the technology, Russia has shown it is willing, ready, and able to use nearly any of its weapons platforms in combat.

https://nationalinte...s-drones-211320

If other European nations aside from Ukraine continue opposing autonomous weapons, five years from now it might well be remote robot pilots against Russian AI---a bit like John Henry against the steam engine, but with rockets instead of hammering holes.