[the broken]

Huh... our best case scenario then is the rest of Europe going all in on Ukraine and racking up the pressure. Could Trump accidentally bring about Ukraine victory?

Most likely win condition right now is Russia economically cracking and being unable to sustain its army. It would be a lot easier than way than trying to lever them out of the Crimea.

If Russia had a winning move, they would have used it to take back the Kursk territory, because politically that is really really embarrassing.

Re robot dogs that can fire a rifle, can they also reload it? I could see that being some use as a distraction or mine clearing, but it's not going to decide anything.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

the broken, on 02 March 2025 - 11:53 PM, said:

Re robot dogs that can fire a rifle, can they also reload it? I could see that being some use as a distraction or mine clearing, but it's not going to decide anything.

Actually, yes:

Quote

Robotic dog machine gun fire support

[...] equipped with [...] an automatic reloading system.

[...] The study's findings were published in the peer-reviewed journal The Chinese Journal of Engineering [...]

[...] the robot dog-come-weapon-platform can lay down precise fire with a weapon renowned for its violent recoil and rapid rate of fire. [...]

[...] they have developed a special weapon mount specifically designed for the task. This contrasts with American attempts that, in effect, just strap a weapon to the back of the robot dog.

Huge implications for urban warfare

The weapon mount developed by the team is specifically designed to enable the gun to point freely while absorbing recoil to minimize muzzle jumping during sustained firing. The team believes that China's expertise in designing and building robotic dogs also gives them an advantage in this area.

Machine gun-wielding robot dogs are better sharpshooters, claims study

IDK why weapon-wielding robot dogs don't seem to be being used in Ukraine yet though---especially if something similar to the Chinese design can be engineered.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 03 March 2025 - 12:22 AM

[Abyss]

Azath Vitr (D, on 03 March 2025 - 12:21 AM, said:

...
IDK why weapon-wielding robot dogs don't seem to be being used in Ukraine yet though---especially if something similar to the Chinese design can be engineered.

drones are cheaper, smaller, and faster to mass produce.

[Mentalist]

UAF keeps droning refineries. last night they hit Ufa, the capital of Bashkortostan, which is about 1400 clicks from the border. Tonight, there's some explosions in oil-related targets in Rostov oblast.

Also last night, some "partizans" blew up an S-300 command centre machine in Tver'. So hopefully we'll see some more holes in western Muscovite oblasts' defences being exploited soon.

DeepState is showing that UAF is pulling back a bit in Kurs'k Oblast. Might be the new batch of North Koreans making a difference.

One of the new brigades, the 153rd mech I think, got hit by an Iskander missile in Dnipro Oblast, some 60 clicks from the frontline. A spotter drone flew that deep in, b/c the sector commander is dumb and doesn't deploy recon drones to run oversight. Also, apparently one of the new recruits was posting their training basically live, so that didn't help. supposedly close to 40 dead and 80-90 injured. Stark reminder that UAF also can have commanders that make decisions.

There's ongoing buzz about counter-offensive making good gains in Torets'k city centre and cutting off the orc units that were trying to advance too deep. ISW keeps showing that, but DeepState is being zip-lip, their map still has roughly a third of the city's outskirts in grey zone, but that's about it. Until I see some blue on that map, I'm not getting too excited.

I hate how following the war is turning into following US domestic politics, cuz I've been trying to stay away from that mess. But I guess maybe tomorrow the walking tangerine will announce he's signing a strategic partnership with Moscow or some dumb shit like that, and then.... I dunno, honestly. I'm so damn tired of this. I don't know if Ze will apologize to try to patch things up. There's leaks that pre-authorized support's from US was halted, but nothing official. Maybe it will be tomorrow.

I dunno. I think the quicker Big Orange makes his face heel turn to Muscovy public, the better it'll be for us, b/c then Europeans will have to decisively pick a side. Maybe then they'll shut Orban up finally. Like, if the US does what Komrade Musk wants and quits NATO, why wouldnt' the rest just kick Orban out? If he doesn't think Muscovy is a threat, what does he need an alliance for?

[Werthead]

French Mirages sporting Ukrainian colours were seen for the first time in the skies over Ukraine today, which was very good timing.

Ukrainian forces have finally been confirmed to have retaken Kotlyne, on the Pokrovsk front. This was the far-western tip of the Russian attempt to encircle Pokrovsk and was contested for some time. Ukraine is trying to roll back the partial encirclement of Pokrovsk, with additional attacks in the centre, possibly looking to retake Shevchenko (again).

Heavy battles also continuing on the Kupyansk front, where the 429th Achilles UAV Regiment defeated a Russian armored assault. There have also been engagements on the Kramatorsk front and near Kreminna, where the Ukrainian Phoenix unit destroyed a large contingent of Russian vehicles in the Serebryanskyy Forest.

Russian forces in Kherson continue attempting to cross the Dnipro. One formation appeared to be training for amphibious assault operations bizarrely close to the front, so the Ukrainians took them out with a drone. Up to 30 Russian soldiers may have been KIA.

Ukraine is in talks with Eutelsat, a French-British satellite operator, to replace Starlink. Eutelsat has been working on a Starlink-style system, even using some existing satellite infrastructure, and may be able to step up to replace Starlink on a shorter timescale than expected. Ukraine is also expanding its intelligence-gathering operation by employing ICEYE satellites, based in Finland. Although US military aid to Ukraine has halted, intelligence sharing has apparently continued today as normal, but Ukraine is preparing for a possible halt.

Ukrainian sources have been listing the hit from a lack of American resupply. They note the overwhelming majority of vehicles, artillery ammunition and small arms ammunition comes from European allies, and has for some time. 95% of Ukraine's drones come from Ukraine itself or non-US allies. Most cruise missiles come from France and Britain, or are home-grown. The really big gap will be Patriot interceptor missiles and ammunition for the ATACMS launchers. Ukraine has confirmed for the first time they are working on a home-grown Patriot-class equivalent precisely due to American unreliability, possibly in cooperation with European partners, but that fielding such a system will not happen tomorrow. There's a reason why there's only 4-5 countries in the world that can field an AA system of that kind of precision.

[Lady Bliss]

I can’t tell what is going on anymore. Canada has manned up but Ukraine is capitulating to Trump? Where do we stand now?

[Mentalist]

Lady Bliss, on 04 March 2025 - 09:07 PM, said:

I can’t tell what is going on anymore. Canada has manned up but Ukraine is capitulating to Trump? Where do we stand now?

1) Canada hasn't been invaded yet. And it's not reliant on American patriot missiles to keep dozens if not hundreds of people dying at a time when a cruise missile hits a high-rise.

2) We need to see what is this "deal" and whether Ze and the Europeans managed to insert anything about security guarantees into it.

The truth is, absolutely no one knows the value of this "mineral deal". Both my parents are geologists, my grandfather spent his life studying the Ukrainian Shield. They are incredulous about these numbers.
UA has some of the biggest coal deposits on the planet. If we wanted to die of blacklung, we could be totally self-sufficient.
Everything else is incredibly speculative.
Trump needs this "deal" to signal to his base that he's getting shit done; Ukraine wants the words "security guarantees" in it, so that everyone can hold the US accountable if somehow there's another war down the line;
Trump is trying to blackmail UA by withholding the (already paid for) aid; Europe is trying to pressure him into committing to security guarantees because this is expected to curb Putler's appetite in future negotiations.

Everything else is just info flood to disorient and exhaust us. And it's mostly working.

EDIT: and now Fox is refuting what Reuters said about the deal getting signed tonight.

enough, i'm gonna go get hammered.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 04 March 2025 - 10:50 PM

[Werthead]

Russian Telegram sources are now saying that Ukraine has launched a large-scale counter-offensive against the entire Pokrovsk salient. The Ukrainian forces that retook Kotlyne have advanced south and east, newer formations are attacking from the west and south-west, and allegedly two full brigades (this sounds like an exaggeration) have launched an assault directly out of Pokrovsk, one tareting Shevchenko. An additional Ukrainian offensive is developing around Uspenivka. Ukrainian forces have so far not achieved major breakthroughs but fighting is intense. The true scale of this attack remains unclear, but it is being reported on multiple Russian channels and some OSINT.

Ukraine's counter-offensive around Toretsk is continuing, with 50 Russians killed or injured in one offensive action and a platoon strength apparently surrendered. Counter-attacks at Kupyansk are also apparently underway, with additional indications of successful operations (though more limited) in Chasiv Yar and Horlivka.

Girkin has thanked Zelensky for screwing up the negotiations. He says that the "Kellogg Plan" is utterly unacceptable for Putin and Russia, and Zelensky confronting Trump and Vance removes the onus from Russia having to face any pressure for rejecting it (obviously his missives are a few days out of date given they come from behind bars). Girkin also believes that Zelensky rinsed Trump in front of the world and doubts many Russians believe the official narrative that it was the other way around.

Europe is clamping down on the smuggling of aircraft parts to Russia. Russia desperately needs western spare parts to keep its civilian aircraft flying, amidst more planes being grounded, and had set up some interesting smuggling routes winding through India and China to get more parts in.

[Werthead]

Strangely limited reporting today after all the action yesterday, but it sounds like Russian forces are giving ground in Shevchenko. Retaking Shevchenko would represent a notable Ukrainian tactical victory on the Pokrovsk front. They did almost retake it a few weeks ago but Russian forces were too strong, but now they're stretched thin also trying to hold along the rest of the line where Ukraine is also attacking.

[Mentalist]

Things not looking great in Kurs'k , as the orcs appear to have made a breakthrough across the Psel and splitting the UAF-held territory S of Sudzha, approaching the border again. if this can't be pushed back, it could further compromise logistics and supply.

UA and China expanded trade agreement, UA< will export more soybeans and fish to China.

Some sort of UA-US talks in KSA next week. meanwhile, the orcs are going all out with missiles and drones, trying to do as much damage the energy infrastructure as they can.

apparently this is making trump mad, b/c it goes against his idea of "both sides moving towards peace". So he's threatening "sanctions on banks and tariffs" as a means of deterrence for Muscovy.
sigh. Don't really want to get into all the reasons why that's extremely dumb.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Drones equipped with AI are flying into battle in Ukraine and are three to four times more likely to hit their target than drones piloted solely by humans, a Ukraine war researcher reports.

Although artificial intelligence-enhanced drones are not fully autonomous, Ukraine sees them as potential game-changers. The technology is rapidly evolving as Kyiv aims to replace soldiers on the battlefield with uncrewed systems [...]

Last September, a Ukrainian drone unit commander said developments in autonomy might soon eliminate the need for drone pilots altogether.

[... Ukraine's current] AI drones are largely limited to final-approach navigation, but they're proving their worth. [...] only two drones could do what might otherwise take eight or nine.

[...] Ukraine's special drone unit [is called] Typhoon [of drones ...]

Ukraine has seen particular success in adapting small- and medium-sized first-person-view drones for diverse missions thanks to interchangeable equipment and flexible designs. [...] these drones can shift from surveillance operations to strikes.

[...] advancements in AI-enabled automated target recognition have led to drones with the ability to lock onto targets up to two kilometers away in optimal conditions. [...] AI also has the potential ability to see through evasion tactics, such as camouflage and decoys that might trick a human eye.

https://www.business...-targets-2025-3

However I don't think these drones can replace soldiers to the same extent an automatically reloading rifle-wielding robot "dog" (or "cat", or variation on (enhanced?) "humanoid" etc.) could, since current drones that fire rifles seem to be more limited in their amount of ammunition and in their flight time (and IDK if these are even being used in Ukraine)---unless they return to a mobile launching station like the UGV's Russia and the United States have been developing.

[Werthead]

Ukraine is now reportedly considering a full withdrawal from Kursk Oblast, though that decision has not yet been made.

Trump's ire has turned on Russia. Apparently discussions with Russia had included a moratorium on large-scale attacks on Ukraine whilst negotiations are underway, although no formal agreement had been made. Trump has apparently greeted the French idea of a ceasefire (at sea and in the air and on energy facilities) positively as an idea, though he seems annoyed that Macron thought of it first. He is now considering significantly expanding US sanctions on Russia, and may resume weapons and intelligence sharing with Ukraine if Russian attacks (that make him look weak, anyway) continue.

Ukraine and China have signed an agreement expanding Ukrainian exports to China. China has also confirmed its willingness to expand its role in bringing the conflict to an end. China has made increasingly conciliatory noises towards Ukraine and Europe in recent days, and increasingly hostile ones to the United States, whilst expressing (mild) irritation towards Russia. I'm not anticipating a major shift from Beijing though.

Polling now shows Zelensky at 68% approval ratings in Ukraine following his spat with Trump. Many Ukrainians, even supporters of the opposition parties, believe he has maneuvered well in his discussions with Trump.

Ukraine's Mirage 2000 jet fighters have undertaken their first combat sorties, engaging Russian drones and missiles with anti-air missiles.

A Ukrainian drone-carrier sea vehicle launched multiple FPV drones off Russian-occupied coast. These drones engaged and destroyed Russian air defence systems behind their lines, eliminating several Osa-AKM and Strela-10 units.

In a rare moment of lucidity, Medvedev has warned of a danger of the disintegration of the Russian Federation due to the pressures of the conflict.

Poland has confirmed it is in talks with France over being brought under France's nuclear umbrella. This may involve the deployment of French nuclear weapons on Polish soil. Prime Minister Tusk has also suggested that current developments may require Poland to pursue an independent nuclear deterrent. Poland is also planning to raise its defence spending to 5% of GDP; its spending in 2025 will already be 4.7%. Poland is also proposing a constitutional amendment that would make it illegal to lower defence spending below 4%, and may withdraw from international conventions banning the use of landmines and cluster munitions. Poland is also planning to train every adult male for combat operations, following the Finnish model.

More details of the Chasiv Yar defensive operations: a large convoy of around 30 vehicles attempts to breach the Ukrainian defensive line. Ukrainian drones and vehicles of the Lviv 24th Mechanis Brigade waited until the convoy was crossing one of the canal bridges and destroyed the lead vehicles, creating a traffic jam that was pounded with artillery and drone fire. At least 16 vehicles were destroyed and the remainder forced to retreat.

Turkey has confirmed it will cooperate with the European defence initiative, and may be willing to put troops on the ground in Ukraine as a peacekeeping force. It believes Turkish forces may be more palatable to the Russians.

American satellite company Maxar has halted cooperation with Ukraine after Trump's order to cease intelligence sharing.

Norway is doubling its defence commitment to Ukraine.

Italy has proposed extending NATO's Article 5 protection to Ukraine without it becoming a formal member. The suggestion appears to be reciprocal, so that if Russia achieved a deal with Ukraine and then attacked Poland or Estonia, Ukraine would be able to join in the counter-attack. This idea seems fanciful for the time being. Some EU members have also proposed using 120 aircraft to secure the skies over western Ukraine by shooting down Russian missiles in the western part of the country. This also seems implausible at the moment.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian forces have trapped around 100 Russian soldiers inside a gas pipeline near Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. They got intelligence that Russians were going to use the pipeline to infiltrate their lines, so waited until they had entered and then sealed it off. Apparently about 20 of the Russian soldiers managed to break out (by breaching the pipeline in another exposed section, presumably), the rest were eliminated. Kursk remains under heavy pressure, with additional Russian and North Korean reinforcements being brought in.

Elsewhere on the line, Ukrainian successes are continuing. The Ukrainian counter-attack on the Kupyansk front is threatening Dvorichna, whilst the remaining Russian forces in Toretsk are now almost completely encircled and the town mostly retaken. On the Pokrovsk front, Shevchenko is under heavy attack still, and Udachne on the western end of the flank. It also looks like a new thrust has been made from the direction of Novopavlivka towards Selydove, which could cut off the western flank altogether.

The Russian position at Chasiv Yar is becoming untenable with some units cut off in the fields and unable to move without immediately attracting drones. In particular, Russian forces say they can no longer use vehicles for anything other than one-way attempts to reach positions and then evacuate hurriedly, as they have a 100% loss rate. Ukrainian special forces are also operating in Kharkiv, where the Russian lines are more porous. Special forces teams have slipped behind Russian lines and taken multiple PoWs.

Lithuania has exited the treaty banning cluster munitions, Poland will likely make similar moves shortly.

The McAlester Army Ammunition Plant in Oklahoma could have 1,000 staff cut as the US looks to wind down artillery ammunition production. The Tinker Air Force Base will lose 600 staff and likely be shut down altogether. This seems profoundly stupid.

Russian Telegram channels gloomily saying that the US cutting off aid to Ukraine would have been critical two or three years ago, but will have a minimal impact now: Europe can supply a lot of what Ukraine needs to remain on the defensive. Some have even quoted western economic analysis that Russia's economy may implode within 18 months (they distrust Russian sources claiming otherwise).

The KINEF refinery near St. Petersburg was damaged in a drone strike overnight.

[Werthead]

Excellent broad-scale analysis of trends in the war.

[Werthead]

​
Bloody hell.

Quote

JD Vance’s cousin fought for over two years in Ukraine as part of the "Da Vinci Wolves."  

"JD is smart, but what they did to Zelensky was a dishonest ambush. Being relatives doesn’t mean I’ll accept him aiding in the killing of my comrades." - Nate Vance

Lindsey Graham has changed his tune and is urging resumption of intelligence and aid to Ukraine. He's suggested the results could be "worse than Afghanistan" otherwise.

Ukraine is switching its radar jamming systems from the F-16 platform to the Mirage 2000, after becoming concerned that the US could block spare parts exports for the F-16s.

The United States has apparently mooted that Canada should be booted from the Five Eyes intelligence group (also including the UK, Australia and New Zealand). Apparently the other members of the group, concerned the US could leak intelligence to Russia, have instead proposed a "Four Eyes" group omitting the USA.

France is accelerating arms shipments to Ukraine, using seized Russian assets and interest from the same.

Several European countries with outstanding F-35 orders are apparently considering cancelling their orders if they can't replace the electronics with their own (as Israel has done) for fear of the US deactivating them.

New report on the "pipeline infiltration mission," suggesting that several dozen of the Russian casualties may have been due to methane poisoning. The Russians took no precautions on the apparently fanciful notion that the gas pipe might have gas in it.

Unconfirmed report that Ukraine has taken control of 50% of Shevchenko and has repelled one Russian counter-attack. Ukrainian forces are advancing again. The fighting here is brutal but it looks like Ukraine is enjoying significant drone and artillery superiority.

Incidentally today is the birthday of the Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko, so Ukraine liberating the town of Shevchenko on his birthday would be a huge morale boost (I don't think they'll quite manage it though).

During the Ukrainian liberation of Kharkiv Oblast in late 2022, a group of Ukrainian soldiers tore off a Russian propaganda billboard and exposed a poster of Shevchenko and a quote from one of his poems underneath:

Quote

And glory, freedom’s knights, to you,
Whom God will not forsake.
Keep fighting — you are sure to win!
God helps you in your fight!
For fame and freedom march with you,
And right is on your side!

​

This post has been edited by Werthead: 09 March 2025 - 08:43 PM

[Mentalist]

Given the last few days of DeepState update, I'm making an educated guess that UAF is pulling out of Sudzha and Kurs'k Oblast.

Unless HQ commits some serious reserves there very soon, that seems pretty inevitable.

The orcs are committing all their most capable units (including their drone teams) to Kurs'k, which is what's allowing UAF to counterattack in Donbas and further N. Which is a fair-ish trade, overall, as the orcs are wasting the bulk of their glide bombs demolishing their own city.

[QuickTidal]

Werthead, on 09 March 2025 - 08:34 PM, said:

​
Lindsey Graham has changed his tune and is urging resumption of intelligence and aid to Ukraine

This motherfuckler needs to shut all the way up with his flip-flopping mouth....my gods. every HOUR he's got a new take either licking Trumps asshole, or rejecting Trumps asshole...just shut up Graham. You are less than pointless, and your old friend John McCain would be fucking ASHAMED of you.

[Garak]

So our likely russian puppet, far right presidential candidate has been rejected from participating in the election again. At least for now, this isn't over. Made all the worse because our "normal" parties are doing an even worse job of things than usual, this giving Georgerscu and the far right parties more frustrated supporters. Who are all convinced that the government and Bruxelles wants to send Romanian soldiers to die in Ukraine (and draft the kids and yadda yadda).

The reaction to Georgerscu not being allowed to candidate has been .... See for yourself.

https://youtu.be/Voh...AaQDmAhyZHvQ8vk

[Werthead]

​
According to Rubio, discussions on restoring aid to Ukraine will take place tomorrow. He has said that Ukraine will have to cede territory in any peace deal, but not how much. He has indicated that they still need to determine how far apart Russia and Ukraine are, but he angrily denied that the US would ever offer any form of material support to Russia.

Denmark has confirmed it will be prepared to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. Poland is unlikely to send troops, as it believes it needs to retain as many fighting troops as possible at home to deter further Russian aggression against them.

Ukraine has field UAS-Seth, a new, small drone. This drone is "fully automated" to avoid Russian EW.

Ukraine has increased the number of drones it expects to build in 2025 to 4.5 million.

Ukraine has cleared an industrial area near Pokrovsk, capturing nine Russian soldiers. 

Musk called Navy veteran and astronaut Senator Mark Kelly a "traitor" for visiting Ukraine and saying that it was important to keep supporting the country.

Germany is tripling its supply of air defence systems to Ukraine. The IRIS SLM and SLS systems have been highly effective in countering the lower-speed Russian cruise missiles.

Two Ukrainian drone operators of the 5th Separate Assault Brigade lost a series of drones over the front. At great risk, they set out to recover them, capturing two Russian soldiers, an enemy EW system, three Russian Mavic drones and four smaller drone along the way, as well as eliminating another Russian soldier who refused to surrender. They acknowledged it was a more fruitful expedition than expected.

The UK is working to unblock money frozen from the sale of Chelsea football club to send it to Ukraine, certainly the most useful deployment of Chelsea funds in its history.

(Head of Ukrainian intelligence) Budanov has estimated that Russia is now spending well over $1 billion a day on the war, and this is not sustainable. He believes the Russia has reached its absolute maximum economic and industrial output given the limitations of its resources and population, whilst Ukraine and its allies are nowhere near theirs. He believes that many Russian military and economic personnel want a ceasefire, but it is unclear where Putin's head is at.

The Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery in Samara has taken a big hit from Ukrainian drones.

An entire Russian artillery park was destroyed by Ukrainian counter-battery fire. Russian artillery losses have cooled off recently as Russian artillery ammunition stocks have gotten scarcer, so this was a rare opportunity to eliminate multiple Russian guns in one hit.

[Mentalist]

Neither Rubio, nor anyone else in the White House has listed a single concession they are expecting Muscovy to make.

The expectations in UA media is that Zelensky will be given some ridiculous demands in exchange for illusory hope of offering further assistance. Trust to the White House is at an all-time low. Freezing more or less along the current frontline is a likely possibility, but trying to push any additional Muscovite demands (such as withdrawing to the admin borders of the 4 claimed Oblasts) is not going to be publicly accepted.

In any case, there's an expectation that if the Americans try to force something unpopular, it will get made public to cause public backlash and outcry.