[Werthead]

Two drones flew into the same 15th floor apartment of a building in Kazan, possible a targeted assassination of a military figure. Unclear if it was successful. I did see one suggestion that a jamming field was in operation and it caused two drones in succession to go off-course in exactly the same way to hit an unrelated target, which I'm pretty sure is not a thing. A third drone was also in the area and was shot down, but the wreckage hit a different apartment building and damaged several flats.

Some bonkers stuff going on in Russia. Russian citizens burned down a post office in Leningrad Oblast and ddetonated fireworks in St. Petersburg itself and Moscow. Apparently the attackers were pensioners, motivated by "Ukrainian call centres."

The beaches at Anapa, Krasnodar, have been closed due to fuel washing up on the beach from two Russian oil tankers which sank in the Black Sea, and third which was leaking heavily. Unclear how three tankers developed problems simultaneously, but no sign of a Ukrainian attack. Possibly sabotage.

Ukraine has undertaken a 100% autonomous advance using both airborne and ground-based drones. The force attacked on the Kharkiv front, near Liptsi, driving Russians back and regaining a small amount of territory, which they have so far been holding, all without the need for Ukrainian troops. Impressive, though of course likely impractical at high scale.

The renewed Russian offensive on Kupyansk, after losing a ton of territory near the town a few weeks ago, is being undertaken on a large scale. But Ukraine has moved in reinforcements, with the National Guard Buerviy Brigade, the UAV Achielles unit of the 92nd Mechanized Brigade, the 105th Border Detachment (aka "Wings of Omega") and the Luhansk Border Guard Unit taking part in heavy combat. The Russians have failed to advance and have lost 300 killed and wounded in just a few days, along with a substantial mount of combat. Renewed Russian complaints about this offensive being severely under-resourced and Ukrainian defences in the region have been reinforced from a few months ago, when it was looking a bit dicey.

Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian AA defence operators who had run out of ammunition may have been redeployed as ground infantry in a particularly undermanned part of the line, confirming that Ukraine's manpower issues continue to bite.

[Mentalist]

The tankers were built int he 60s, way past expiration date, and designed for rivers and coastal waters only.

Instead, they were being used in deep sea water during strong storm weather. Insane, criminal negligence (the ecological impact is incalculable), but not directly war related (except for the whole sanctions bit)

According to Yuri Butusov, the target of the missile strike in Ryl'sk was the HQ of the 155th Marine Infantry brigade. UAF has a particular grudge against it, since it's been implicated in war crimes in Bucha, as well as posting a severed head of a UAF serviceman on a pike. Naturally, that's the exact same unit whose standard was waved around during VVH's presser. So our artillery brigades took exception to that.

[Werthead]

Ukraine seems to be making a push in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, occupying territory south of Kam'yanske and forcing Russian units back.

There is still heavy fighting on the Kupyansk front, with a Russian column destroyed.

The 36th Brigade repulsed an armored attack which was led by guys on quad bikes. A Russian car carrying infantry was blown up, having been stealthily trying to approach the front by (checks notes) flying the flag of the Soviet Union from the roof.

A Russian assault force tried to cross the Dnipro next to the destroyed Antonivskyi Bridge to assault Kherson city directly, despite this being one of the most heavily-defended parts of the Ukrainian line. The force was apparently destroyed in detail, with none of the Russian vehicles or boats reaching the midpoint of the river. Russian Telegram is livid at the stupidity of the tactic. Ukrainian sources approve.

A Russian column in Syria had some pretty big rocks chucked at it by an angry crowd but managed to leave intact.

The 155th Russian Marine Brigade may have Ship of Theseus-ed for possibly the third time in the conflict (i.e. it's KIAs and permanently disabled have passed three times its full combat strength, indicating the equivalent of the unit being annihilated and reconstituted that many times). 250 were killed, wounded or deserted in November alone. The 155 and 810 Marine Brigades have been attacking heavily in Kursk, but they are taking heavy casualties because the less-experienced units on their flanks have apparently refused to engage for a fortnight, with massive arguments over meat grinder attacks, losing lives unnecessarily and equipment shortages.

Ukraine has not only liberated Kamyanske, Zaporizhzhia, but advanced south of the harbour and secured territory south of the town. Not a ton so far, but enough to open up possible lines of advance towards Luhove and Verkhnya Krynysya, which has been on Ukraine's shopping list for some time. This area is very interesting, it's located on the banks of the Dnipro as it starts to curve SW towards the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (in Russian hands for some time now). Attacking along this sector is very attractive because Ukraine doesn't have to worry about its right (western) flank too much, as Ukraine controls most of the river with impunity. Even better, Ukraine can bring artillery, drones and missile launch systems up to the far side of the river for close-coordination of fires with ground advances whilst those systems are (relatively) immune to counter-attack. Ukraine can also reinforce the advance from the river and across it (even a fair behind the lines if necessary).

The Russians known all of this, of course, and defensive lines to the south are fairly heavily pre-prepared. This area is to the west of where the launched their 2023 summer counter-offensive, which was only modestly successful because of the depth of Russian defences and its prepared minefields. Ukraine does have a lot more options for dealing with those now than they did back then.

OTOTH this might just be an opportunistic exploitation of badly defended Russian lines. We'll see if this gathers force.

The Russian cargo ship Sparta has developed engine trouble and is drifting off the coast of Portugal. The ship is carrying an absolute load of equipment from Russia's bases in Syria.

Approximately 30% of shells and missiles fired by Russia this year actually came from North Korea, according to Ukrainian analysts.

Reports that 2,000 Russian troops in Kherson have been prepared for a massed crossing of the river, following an exploratory attack a couple of days ago that was destroyed in detail. Some of these units have reportedly sunk their own boats and refused to take part in the offensive, and some unit commanders have been fired for refusing to carry out the attack. Several Russian formations in reserve in Crimea have destroyed their own river boats to stop them being sent to join the attack.

Additional information on the "robot offensive." Several dozen uncrewed Ukrainian ground combat vehicles looking like those things out of Terminator (but much smaller) engaged multiple Russian positions outside Lyptsi, Kharkiv and destroyed them, sending Russian forces fleeing. They were supported by UAVs in unusually close ground support roles, suggesting some kind of close coordination between the forces on the ground and air, with some autonomous combat capabilities. Not even remotely terrifying.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 23 December 2024 - 08:50 PM

[Werthead]

Russian air defences shot down an Azerbaijan Airways aircraft as it was approaching Grozny. Chechnya had an air alert for Ukrainian drones and missiles, and air defences hit the plane after had turned away over the Caspian to divert to an airport in Kazakhstan. At the moment it looks like 32 people survived but 40 were killed.

The command post of the 810th Russian Marine Brigade in Lgov took a direct hit, possibly whilst a briefing was in progress. A precise damage report has not been made but milbloggers via Telegram are reporting high casualties, including some high-profile officers.

Ukrainian ground robots are being used to recover UAVs, intact munitions and even light vehicles that have been damaged to disabled in no man's land between the lines, and in some cases apparently behind Russian lines.

Ukraine is apparently in negotiations with the new government in Damascus about providing grain in return for Russia's bases being removed. Discussions are apparently progressing, though Russia is also in negotiations to keep the bases, but they don't have as easy a way of replacing the grain supplies.

Slovakia was offered an alternative deal for gas supplies but Fico turned it down, apparently keen to negotiate a lower-rate deal with Russia. Not only did Putin tell him to sod off, Ukraine announced it was turning off the transit taps anyway. This has left Fico looking like an idiot and scrambling to find a replacement deal.

[Lady Bliss]

Did Russia shoot down a passenger plane destined for Chechnya?

[Tsundoku]

Lady Bliss, on 26 December 2024 - 03:23 PM, said:

Did Russia shoot down a passenger plane destined for Chechnya?

Looks like Russia and their mates are already trying to cover it up.

https://www.news.com...a3b1ae5725f1432

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 26 December 2024 - 10:44 PM

[Lady Bliss]

Tsundoku, on 26 December 2024 - 10:43 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 26 December 2024 - 03:23 PM, said:

Did Russia shoot down a passenger plane destined for Chechnya?

Looks like Russia and their mates are already trying to cover it up.

https://www.news.com...a3b1ae5725f1432

Yeah. A bird blew up the plane.

[Tsundoku]

Lady Bliss, on 26 December 2024 - 11:22 PM, said:

Tsundoku, on 26 December 2024 - 10:43 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 26 December 2024 - 03:23 PM, said:

Did Russia shoot down a passenger plane destined for Chechnya?

Looks like Russia and their mates are already trying to cover it up.

https://www.news.com...a3b1ae5725f1432

Yeah. A bird blew up the plane.

It was obviously a Ukrainian suicide pigeon with a vest.

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 26 December 2024 - 11:47 PM

[Werthead]

The Finns don't mess around. After the "tanker" Eagle S cut the Estlink-2 cable in the Baltic, Finnish naval personnel stormed the vessel in a surprise raid by helicopter, steering the vessel into Finnish waters and apprehending the crew (who did not resist). Advanced signals intelligence equipment has been recovered, confirming the ship (maybe only one of four with these capabilities for Russia) was monitoring NATO ships and aircraft in the Baltic.

Estonian naval gunboats have been dispatched to patrol the area where Estlink-1 is located whilst Estlink-2 is repaired.

Interestingly, Russia seems to be downplaying the incident, merely issuing complaints rather than threatening a major international incident.

Israel has joined Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in suspending all flights to Moscow. Russian authorities are furious at claims they shot down the Azerbaijani plane, causing it to crash in Kazakhstan, despite the fact they very clearly did it.

Azerbaijan has suspended all flights to seven Russian cities due to "concerns" over the security situation in southern Russia.

US Intelligence has suggested that, rather than the plane being hit by chance by AA fragments, it may have been misidentified as a Ukrainian drone and deliberately shot down, with the missile missing or perhaps being remote-detonated early once the error had been discovered, but too close to the plane and fatally damaging it.

Russia mounted a large-scale assault on the Klischiivka front, losing 6 T-72s, 6 BMP-2s and another damaged tank. Ukraine held its positions. In another battle in the Kharkiv region, an entire Russian company was wiped out in one go. 70 were killed, and all the survivors (only another dozen or so) were injured to one extent or another. Another battle near Ivanivske-Klishiivka, south of Bakhmut, saw heavy Russian losses in manpower and equipment.

Ukraine has received its first shipment of American LNG, which was delivered via a Greek terminal in the Mediterranean and transferred by pipeline.

Ukraine has asked China to intervene in the transfer of North Korean troops to Ukraine. China has said it regards the situation with seriousness and urges a peaceful solution (but otherwise doesn't do much). Ukrainian forces did take a North Korean soldier prisoner, but apparently his own comrade shot him just before the Ukrainians arrived and may have then shot himself. The soldier was too wounded to survive. South Korea has been informed of the situation. Interestingly, the South Korean military intelligence service has designated Ukraine as a "friendly nation" and has suggested closer cooperation.

Reportedly Ukraine has been more successful than last year in building new defensive lines: there are "several hundred" kilometres of newly-completed fortifications in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, along with 358 strongpoints and strongholds, and these were all completed on or ahead of schedule.

Ukraine may have less than 50 ATACMS left, and is unlikely to receive more before Trump takes office. Ukraine is now preserving its remaining missiles for very high value targets. Britain has also been slow in getting new Storm Shadows to Ukraine, but France has been speedier in providing SCALPs (effectively the same thing).

Unconfirmed reports that Russia and Iran have collaborated on a new variant Shahed which can use AI and autonomous operations to overcome EW. This is considerably slower than Ukraine (which may have started fielding such drones as early as a year ago) but still concerning. Russia has also started fielding fibre optic-linked UAVs, but their models are so far slow and cumbersome, with some weird ways of mounting the cable, and Ukraine has been able to shoot them down with relative ease. But they warn of Russia ingenuity and improvements on the battlefield require them to stay ahead of the game.

Some of the fight around Pokrovsk has gotten quite brutal. Russian soldiers stormed one trench directly and engaged Ukrainian soldiers in close-quarters fighting with small arms. The Ukrainians repelled the attack, stating that the Russian losses were unbelievable. Telegram again complains about Russian troops being sent on "suicide missions" in these areas.

Russia still seems to be trying to force the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast in the face of withering Ukrainian fire from the high ground across the river. This is beyond stupid, and some Russian soldiers continue to refuse to join the attack, despite threats of being shot.

Russian sources in Belgorod say that over 56,000 Russian bodies have been recovered from the battlefield over the course of several months and stored in the city. Many were unidentifiable.

Gasoline prices in Russia rose by over 11% over the course of 2023, due to a collapse in output (for several months production was down 20% due to drone attacks), increased tariffs, reduced income from exports (with all exports being banned for several months) and personnel being removed to be sent to the front lines. Some Russian economists projecting that gasoline prices could sharply rise in 2025, perhaps topping 20%. Obviously this would have dire ramifications for the broader Russian economy on top of everything else. 

Internet group Anonymous claims it has information suggesting that Russia has plans to attack Finland and the Baltic States at an undetermined point in the future. How reliable that is, is unclear.

Some Syrian resistance forces have started saying they will consider travelling to Ukraine to help fight Russia, in thanks for Ukraine's help to the Syrian people. This follows confirmation of Ukrainian special forces and drone units operating in the country, and the first shipments of wheat flour leaving Ukraine for Syria.

[Mentalist]

UA is offering wheat to th Syria in exchange for refurins orc offers to maintain base leases.

Putler spoke to Aliyev (Azeri President) and "apologized that an incident occurred in orc airspace". Without admitting liability, obviously.

The concern about new fortifications is who the F is going to man them? we've built a brand new strongpoint S of Pokrovs'k, too, but it was lost practically w/o a fight due to srtrategic- level command incompetence and failure to coordinate various units the frontline is composed of.

Worth noting that the orc's target is the city of Pokrovs'k. Birthlplace of the modern rendition of the folk holiday carol "Schedryk". Better known in the West as "Carol of the Bells". Mykola Leontovych toured the West with this song an the Ukrainian National Chorus starting in 1919 to raise awareness of the plight of the UNR (Ukrainian People's Republic) that was at the time fighting an existential war against both the Soviets and the Whites.

And now the orcs are about 6 clicks outside the city outskirts. And they would love nothing more than to level another city in the Donbas, further reinforcing their myth that this land was "nothing but a Wild Field until the Russians started building here".

Oh, and Slovakia threatens to cut off electricity supply to UA if they do not renew gas transit.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 28 December 2024 - 07:36 PM

[Werthead]

Poland has been building up the ability to quadruple it's output to Ukraine, which would completely overshadow any loss from Slovakia, but it's unclear what the timescale is for that. Some Polish sources saying it could be done overnight, some saying it might take a month or so.

[Mentalist]

Georgian Dream-dominated parliament elected their president. GD threatened to cut off the power and water to the presidential palace if Zurabishvili didn't vacate it. So she did, claiming "she is taking the legitimacy with her".
I'm still not sure how this will pan out. The protests aren't dying down; the West is allegedly doubling down on considering GD as illegitimate, b/c the election was rigged. Zurabishvili was invited to Trump's inauguration, b/c the US recognizes her as the only legitimate representative of Georgia; and GD realized they can't disperse the protests with force; so it's a bit of a stalemate at the moment.

There's a lot of confusion and disinfo regarding New Year and potential "UA January offensive". In the event the HQ's been stashing away significant reserves, in a "now or never" situation in the advent of January, I can see a hail Mary play being plausible. If that is the case, a strike attempting to occupy Belgorod makes the most sense looking at the map. Do I think it's likely? God, no. But if this were to happen, somehow, I would feel that it's logical- seize a million-sized Oblast centre, and force the orcs to level it, as a major bargaining chip to be traded for Enerhodar, or Mariupol, or something of that caliber.

Biden signed off on a few billion worth of US support. mostly ammo and missiles.

Another big hit on L'gov. Orcs whining that a big troop concentration's been hit. Western sources are reporting that the 2 marine infantry brigades (810th and the 155th) have largely ceased to exist in Kurs'k. Let's see how the VDV does.

[Werthead]

The ruble fell again massively in the last 24 hours (113 rubles = $1 US).

Ukraine has reopened its embassy in Damascus and the Ukrainian Foreign Minister is visiting the country for "productive meetings" with the new government about food supplies (and possibly the future of those Russian bases).

[Werthead]

Reports that 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers have gone AWOL in the last month or so, and a coherent foreign-trained brigade has been broken up to be sent to reinforce other units, has caused consternation in Ukraine. For the latter point, the military command has said that a coherent full unit with limited or no combat experience is not a great idea, so individual units have been attached to units in the field to get experience in live-fire situations.

The AWOL situation is more concerning and there's serious questions being asked about that. The only reason that's not being touted as a bigger problem is that Russia has apparently reported some 28,000 troops going AWOL (!) in the last 3-4 months.

Zelensky has promised to arrange elections as soon as the hot phase of the war ends, and reiterates this can be achieved in 2025. He has said that Ukrainian military intelligence believes the current Russian offensives will culminate this or next month, but says that Russian assaults remain very heavy, with over 50% of all operations directed against Pokrovsk and Kuarakhove.

It looks like the Ukrainian attempt to recaptured Shevchenko and its much-needed defensive positions south of Pokrovsk has been called off. Russian forces have advanced further west rather than directly on the main town, and seem to be aiming to encircle it. However, the attacks on the opposite axis north of the town haven't really gone anywhere, so until they step up, Pokrovsk is not in imminent danger.

Russia has apparently been stockpiling jetskis for a crossing of the Dnipro, but many of the jetskis have been sabotaged, presumably on the basis that crossing the Dnipro by jetski into some of the heaviest fortified Ukrainian positions on high ground is suicide.

Russia is warning yet again of a major Ukrainian offensive in early 2025, though the precise location (Belgorod, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) is unknown. Russian units on the front are also warning of Ukrainian fibre-optic drones appearing in greater and greater numbers. Totally immune to electronic warfare, they are wreaking complete havoc on Russian forces. Russian FO drones are so far limited and poor in comparison.

Slovaka's threats to reduce electricity to Ukraine have failed, so Fico is now threatening to cut support to Ukrainian refugees and force them to return to Ukraine, but given a lot of refugees have already returned, there's not a lot of validity to that threat.

Ukraine has used ATACMs to destroy a Nebo-M radar station in Donetsk worth $100 million. Russia only has about four of these left.

Ukraine has launched a rare fully-armored assault on Russian positions, with 63rd Brigade tanks hitting Russian positions in the Serebryansky Forests. The Russians sustained significant losses and the Ukrainian tanks returned unharmed. No territory was reclaimed though.

The army base of the 810th Marine Brigade in Ivanovs'ke, Kursk was destroyed by HIMARS. A Russian forward command post in Kherson Oblast was flatted by a French AASM guided bomb.

Three Mi-28 Russian helicopters have been lost in last week, two apparently shot down by missiles attached to a sea drone.

Syria and Ukraine seem to be moving towards a possible grain deal.

All energy imports to Transnistria have ceased, and the territory has switched to emergency backup power. Moldova, which itself is relying on Romanian energy exports, is in talks to attach the country more fully to the European grid, and has offered talks with Transnistria on doing the same, despite Russian objections. All "industrial enterprises" in Transnistria have temporarily halted.

A Russian PoW has said that North Korean soldiers have received better equipment than Russian soldiers, but frequently get confused in combat and start shooting at both Russian and Ukrainian positions. One Russian soldier returned fire at North Koreans engaging in friendly fire but was reprimanded by his commanding officer. The North Korean soldiers have also proven slow to adapt to new tactics, having had single doctrines drilled into them back home. Reportedly on New Year's Eve they got staggeringly drunk, even those just about to go into combat.

Russia has apparently started recruiting hard from the Central Asia immigrant community, promising significant payouts.

China has signed a deal to build the Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-China railway, bypassing Russia. Russia has also agreed to reopen talks on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline after basically caving to Chinese demands to decrease costs for them at the price of higher infrastructure costs for Russia.

48,670 Russians were killed, injured or captured during December alone, a one-month record for the entire war to date. This is equivalent to 36 motorized rifle divisions destroyed. Ukraine also puts the equipment loss for Russia at 3,689 tanks, 8,956 armored vehicles and 13,050 artillery systems for the entire year.

Some Chechens are celebrating the 30th anniversary of the Battle of Grozny, on 31 Dec 1994 - 1 January 1995, when Russia lost over 1,000 soldiers killed in an assault on Grozny that was ultimately unsuccessful, despite heavy damage to the city.

Russian Telegram channels saying that Assad was poisoned in Moscow at the weekend, but survived. Not much more info on that.