[Tsundoku]

 Tiste Simeon, on 10 December 2024 - 07:56 AM, said:

 Abyss, on 09 December 2024 - 02:46 AM, said:

 Garak, on 08 December 2024 - 10:12 PM, said:

Actual confirmed sighting? I know Russia has said he's there but if they tell me the sky is blue I'll go check it first, you know.

A confirmed sighting would require him to stand near a window.

I can't see why they can't do that to prove he's there, we all know how secure Russian widows are.

A curiously appropriate typo. Works on multiple levels.

Unlike Russian windows.

[the broken]

He's not going to be walking around where he can be seen, but they don't really have a reason to lie about it.

[Abyss]

 the broken, on 10 December 2024 - 03:10 PM, said:

He's not going to be walking around where he can be seen, but they don't really have a reason to lie about it. Except for all the lying.

ftfy

[Werthead]

Ukraine has fielded a new drone, "Sea Baby," which is fully autonomous. During an engagement over the Black Sea, it was apparently jammed, managed to evade the jamming and then shot a helicopter with its automatic cannons, causing casualties among the crew, before completing its mission.

The director of the Russian prison camp Olenivka, where 53 Ukrainian POWs were reportedly executed in July 2022, has been killed by a car bomb in Donetsk.

Russia has made a renewed push for the Dnipro river mouth islands, but several amphibious assaults in speedboats were destroyed by Ukrainian fire and drones.

Heavy fighting in Kursk. A Russian column attacking the 225th Assault Battalion was destroyed, but the Russians did regain some ground.

Five more Ukrainian children kidnapped into Russia have returned home.

Germany has sent mixed messages that it could provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine as part of a wider push to put more pressure on Putin to end the war, but only in concert with the United States. This was later walked back by others spokesmen. Poland has indicated it believes there may be some momentum in Russia for a move to negotiations in January or February. Other commentators have suggested that Trump will lean on the Saudis to increase oil production to seriously hurt Russia's bottom line.

An additional S-400 battery was damaged in Crimea.

The Russians attacked a service vehicle from the International Atomic Energy Agency heading to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, apparently "accidentally." Fortunately the vehicle was armoured enough to resist the explosion.

The collapse of Russian influence in Syria continues to be fiercely debated in the Russian information space. Some bloggers are saying this signals an end to the "multipolar world project" and that Russia will have to leave its bases in Syria and consequently probably reduce its activities in Africa. Others believe the new rulers in Syria can be brought on board, or new bases opened in Iran to compensate.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Ukraine supplied Syrian rebels with drones and operators for the offensive that toppled Assad [...] Ukraine's aid was sent four to five weeks ago by Ukrainian intelligence operatives [...]

[...] Earlier this year, The Kyiv Post published videos that it said showed Ukrainian special forces interrogating Russian mercenaries in Sudan, and special forces fighting side by side with Syrian rebels against Russian mercenaries and Assad's forces.

Ukraine Sent Drones and Operators to Syrian Rebels Before Assad Ousting - Business Insider

Quote

The Russian installations at the port of Tartus and at Hmeimim air base were built over decades; it is hard to imagine that Russia will continue to operate from them. It has attempted to secure naval access to the port of Tobruk, in Libya, but has yet to develop the infrastructure there that it once had in Syria. Russia[...] now faces an enduring hostility from a Syrian population that it helped suppress, with a savagery that foreshadowed its behavior in Ukraine.

[...] The ubiquity of surprise in war is a lesson learned and relearned every few years, as is the centrality of the intangibles—organization, planning, the will to fight, leadership—in assessing military power. Had one studied the latest International Institute of Strategic Studies' "Military Balance" entry on Syria, for example, one would not have guessed that a militia it estimated at 10,000 members would overthrow a military of 130,000, backed by thousands of auxiliaries from Hezbollah and other militias, as well as 4,000 Russian troops. [...]

The Biden administration's calls for a cease-fire in Syria were pointless and ineffectual. Along with its [...] inability to do more in Ukraine than provide enough weapons to prevent Kyiv's defeat, it shows what happens when strategic thought withers into good intentions and wishful thinking.

Khamenei Loses Everything - The Atlantic

[Werthead]

Some evidence that Ukraine provided drones to the HTS forces in Syria and Ukrainian special forces may have assisted in a surprise attack on a Russian-held airbase.

Wagner forces operating in Africa are reporting that they have been cut off from resupply due to the situation in Syria, and urge the Russian government to conclude deals with the new Syrian regime to allow the continued operation of the airfields, otherwise resupply to the Wagner forces in Africa is effectively impossible.

"Rockets" have hit the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex on the Sea of Azov. Sounds like it was actually six ATACMS.

The Transneft Refinery in Bryansk has taken a heavy hit, lots of fire and explosions.

Attacks on the Dnipro river islands in Kherson Oblast continue. Ukraine destroyed two boats and two vehicles involved an an attempted amphibious assault.

Putin's ideological mentor Alexander Dugin has heavily criticised Turkey, saying that Erdogan stabbed Putin in the back and will pay a price for that.

Russian economic insiders suggesting that the Central Bank has gained permission from Putin to raise interest rates to 23%, from 21%. This is woefully less than they were arguing for, and at this point is sticking a plaster over the iceberg hole in the Titanic.

Hungary has proposed a Christmas ceasefire for the conflict along with a good-faith prisoner swap ahead of negotiations. The Ukrainian side was unreceptive. Ukraine has issued a report that 109 Ukrainian prisoners of war were unlawfully executed, either just after capture or at Russian holding facilities.

Ukraine's defence sector is reporting significant growth amidst government investment, orders and overseas investment; in some areas, Ukraine has even been able to export military equipment not useful in the current conflict, or small demonstration models to western countries that could be used to inspire larger orders once the war is over. Ukraine is specialising in small, cheap but effective autonomous drones and cruise missiles with a variety of operating ranges a far lower cost than existing models. 

Sevastopol is apparently under a "significant" drone and missile attack.

Russia is continuing to import small arms and ammunition from western countries via Georgia and countries in Central Asia.

Electricity supplies from Russia to the Republic of Abkhazia (a Russian-occupied area in Georgia) have been cut off to pressure the population into accepting an investment agreement with Russia that would effectively give Russia full control over the Abkhazian economy. So far the people are holding out, and popular support for reunification with Georgia seems to be growing. The Georgian government is rather preoccupied at the moment, though. 

The Ukrainians have been counter-attacking near Pokrovsk, using special forces and apparently even paratroopers (!) who land behind the lines and attack positions in close coordination with the frontal assault and drones. This suggests AA defence over the Pokrovsk front has been significantly degraded.

Canada has supplied Ukraine with half a billion dollars of equipment and support, their largest investment to date. The Ukrainian government says it now has enough ammunition, drones and vehicles to continue fighting at current or even an increased tempo until the second half of 2025, regardless of decisions made in Washington next month.

The heaviest fighting is now in Kursk, where Russian forces are flattening their own villages whilst trying to recapture them. Some advances have been made, but Ukraine is holding the main line. Russian losses are very high, but some Ukrainian troops are reporting low morale and are dubious of the military value of this operation, despite inflicting crippling losses on the Russian forces and having successfully established viable defensive lines in very good time (a weakness of Ukraine versus Russia in the conflict so far).

Heavy fighting also continues in the Pokrovsk sector, around Kurakhove and along the Kupyansk front, despite a recent major Ukrainian victory there due to Russian manpower shortages (the first time this seems to have happened in the war, and something analysts are carefully monitoring). The attacks on Chasiv Yar also continue.

Ukraine has confirmed that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in action in the entire conflict so far. This is roughly one-fifth of Russian KIA, according to the best estimates.

[Werthead]

The 1295th Central Tank Reserve Base in Vladivostok, Russia is apparently now completely exhausted of all useable equipment. Analysts have been sifting through all the latest satellite imagery and what's left behind is totally useless, rusted-out hulks missing turrets, engines and wheels. There's maybe a few hulls that could be used for spare parts but that's it.

Several minor bases ran out of equipment ages ago (the 246, 240, 342, 835, 7033, 187 etc), but the 1295th was one of the major stockpiles of ex-Soviet equipment, with close to a thousand serviceable and reactivable vehicles, and maybe something similar in terms of vehicles that could be usefully cannibalised, back in early 2022. Now they're all completely gone.

What is interesting is that Russia has stopped fielding new/reserviced T-55s, despite still having hundreds in serviceable condition. Given that drones go through them like hot knives through butter, they seem to have switched them to converting the chassis into BTS-4 ARVs. Stripping the gun and heavier equipment makes them much faster and (marginally) more survivable.

The 2456/103rd storage base is the next-worst one, so OSINT sources are now going over the latest imagery.

Ukraine has launched drone attacks on bases around Grozny in Chechnya, Kadyrov appears upset.

A Russian engineer who worked on modernising cruise missiles has been assassinated in Moscow.

Heavy assaults in Kursk and Kharkiv oblasts are continuing, Ukraine has given up a small amount of ground in the former, seems to be holding in the latter. A Russian supply warehouse containing vast amounts of supplies for the military has burned down in Novosibirsk, apparently not a drone strike but sabotage.

First confirmed use of a fibre-optic drone to destroy a Russian vehicle. These are drones with spools of fibre optics to overcome jamming. They have a fairly obviously limited range, so impressive going.

The United States has passed a ban on recognising any occupied Ukrainian territory as Russian.

Poland has said it has considered France's plan to deploy peacekeeping troops in Ukraine with interest, but has no plans to commit to it at this time.

OSINT sources are monitoring a steady build-up of Russian equipment between Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia front. They believe a Russian offensive in this sector is possible to probable in the coming weeks, despite likely suboptimal weather conditions.

NATO analysis is that there have now been over 1 million KIA and wounded in the war to date.

The Pokrovsk sector is looking shakier than a few days ago, despite heavy Russian losses there recently.

[Werthead]

Russia has advanced south of Pokrovsk, taking Shevchenko (albeit after five days or so of attacks). This is quite disappointing as the Ukrainian defence east of Pokrovsk has been heroic and incredibly costly for the Russians, but the failure to hold the south means that the city will come under attack from that direction instead, and as the Ukrainians switch their defensive approach to the south, the east may suffer.

Ukraine is still well-placed to defend Pokrovsk but it depends on manpower. They may choose to cede the city rather than obliterate it in a pitched battle, especially if the city comes under assault from two different directions. That said, turning this into another Avdiivka or Bakhmut could hold up the Russians well into 2025, provided Ukraine has enough troops.

Keith Kellogg has suggested direct talks between Zelensky and Putin could be held in Washington DC. Mark this as "unlikely" for now.

Ukraine has upgraded its M113 APCs with a new fire control module, allowing the exterior guns to be fired from inside the vehicle, improving survivability.

Russia is pulling its S-400 missile systems out of Syria. Khmeimim Airbase is being shuttered, the situation in Tartus is less clear but indications are of huge amounts of packing going on.

Russian troops retreating to their bases have been shown "the shoe" by victorious Syrian forces, a noted Arabic insult.

More than 80 missiles and drones were shot down during today's attacks on Ukraine's energy grid, including the use of MANPADS to hit fast-moving cruise missiles. 200 Shahed drones were involved in today's attack, with 80 shot down and 105 jammed by electronic warfare. 99 of those fell out of the sky on Ukrainian territory and have been recovered.

[Mentalist]

Orcs claiming Kurakhove city council building.

Georgian Dream voted in a pro-Russian football player as a new President. Zubarashvili is refusing to acknowledge this, but we'll see if this matters.

Head of the "Donets'k" territorial command's been sacked. Syrsky is trying to micromanage the Pokrovs'k sector himself to avoid further breakthroughs. A scandal is brewing in the Uki MoD due to multiple thousands of faulty mortar mines being supplied to the frontline. Yuri Butusov is accusing local military command for "letting the enemy take the hardpoints S of pokrovs'k without a fight" due to lack of control and coordination between units. Sigh.


Z-heads are in an uproar, b/c the new commander of OC "South" is ordering confiscation of all un-registered vehicles being used by rank-and-file in the frontline zones. Thus soldiers who brought their personal cars, or are using those bought by volunteers, are hiding them from military police. supply to the front is mostly being done on foot, or bicycles. Sometimes, taxi drivers from Donets'k are hired to run evac from frontlines.

According to Tom Cooper, the orcs are short-handed in manufacturing glide bomb kits- meaning their use has fall by at least a factor of 2. They are also running their Su fighter/bombers ragged, and they lack the capacity to refurbish them fast enough.
Speaking of which, HUR claims to have burned a Su-30 in Krasnodar Krai.

Despite all this doom and gloom, we aren't seeing any actual slowdown in their push. Gotta keep up appearances of the indomitable machine for when the new people take over in DC.

Kadyrov spoke out against the head of police and Investigative committee over the detention of a Chechen teen in Moscow; Z-heads and some regional deputees openly spoke out against his condemnation, which is somewhat new, as previously Muscovites were generally afraid to debate anyhing with Kadyrov; However, Putler subsequently gave him another Hero's medal, so I'm guessing that's Moscow's most recent peace offering for this grave insult.

[Werthead]

The Ukrainian Black Forest Brigade is inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces in the Donbas. They use recon drones and even some on-foot infiltrators to get behind Russian lines and then call in HIMARS, Storm Shadow, drone or ATACMS strikes on high-value targets. They use British-supplied Tekever AR3 recon drones which can stay in the air for 16 hours at a time and, through both Ukrainian and British adjustments, can overcome more forms of Russian EW jamming. The BFB likes to use Storm Shadow because, in their platoon commander's words, "HIMARS can cause chaos and there's a lot of people running around; with Storm Shadow there's just a single big boom and then a hole in the ground where the target was; no one was left moving."

The BRB destroyed a Nebo-M radar station worth over $100 million in eastern Ukraine in October; Ukraine does not believe Russia can replace this easily as there are only nine others in existence (some deployed way behind the lines back in Russian territory, and not pointed at Ukraine).

Ukraine has provided what appears to be conclusive evidence of North Korean troops taking part in assault operations. They used a "human Wave" attack to secure a trenchline near Kurakhove, but the Ukrainians retook it. Many of the North Koreans were killed as they tried to cross open fields in full view of drones and even machine gun positions. Most importantly, these attacks are not in Kursk (so Russian territory) but in Donetsk Oblast; South Korea said it would take the deployment of North Korean forces on internationally-recognised Ukrainian territory very seriously, though they are distracted at the moment.

Potentially good news, the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade has launched a counter-strike on Shevchenko. The Russians captured the village via an opportunistic or lucky attack whilst forces were rotating, but this means they haven't managed to dig in. The town has fortified layers and trenches of defence and the Ukrainians have recaptured some of these positions. The Russians have not yet brought up reinforcements but the fighting is fierce. If Ukraine can dislodge them from Shevchenko and reoccupy the defences with heavy equipment, that secures the southern flank of Pokrovsk. That's a bit touch and go at the moment. Ukraine has deployed the commander of the 2022 Kherson offensive to Pokrovsk to stabilise the situation.

Ukraine has field-tested Tryzub, a train and ground battery-mounted laser cannon (!). The weapon has destroyed test-ordinance at a height of 2km. Unconfirmed suggestion it is a field-deployment of an adaptation of the British Sea Dragon laser AA system.

Russia has freighted a bunch of 60-year-old T-62 tanks to Ukraine.

Latest from Syria is that the transitional government has asked the Russian government to withdraw all military forces from the country whilst the government takes under advisement a request to continue a lease of the Tartus naval base on existing or renegotiated terms. Russia seems to be complying.

The US has been studying closing footage of the Oreshnik ballistic missile and identified problems with it, including the warheads shedding "far too much" of their speed in the final closing stages. The warheads also wobbled like hell, giving them only a 6% chance of hitting the target. Not a problem in ICBM mode, but a problem if they're being used as a conventional warhead delivery system (along with their insane cost per shot).

Russia attacked again on the Kharkiv front near Borova and were defeated by the 77th Ukrainian Airmobile Brigade. The 17th Tank Brigade repulsed a combined Russian-North Korean assault in Kursk. Russia also launched a massive assault on positions held by the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade near Siversk, but fortunately two other heavy formations (the 54th Mechanized Brigade and the 81st Airmobile) were in the area, which Russia didn't seem to be aware of, so, extremely rarely in the conflict, they attacked a position with either inferior or approximately equal numbers of attackers, and consequently were defeated. 3 tanks, 12 APC/IFVs, 3 MLRS (unusual to lose this many in one go on the front), 1 other artillery system and 40 motorcycles were destroyed.

[Mentalist]

Head of the Chemical, biological, and radiation Defence group in the orc MoD was exploded in Moscow via an e-scooter bomb today. Naturally, this caused quite a stir in Moscow.


Yesterday, the SBU had him declared suspect for 4.8k counts of use of chemical weapons in the past 3 years of the war.

We will no longer hear such wonderful orc MoD stories as the horrible battle mosquitos of spawned in the secret Ukrainian biolabs. This was also the spokeorc who implied the high rates of avian flu in Muscovy were due to the UAF directing hostile infected birds towards the Muscovite population.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 16 December 2024 - 10:26 PM, said:

...with Storm Shadow there's just a single big boom and then a hole in the ground where the target was; no one was left moving."

... field-tested Tryzub, a train and ground battery-mounted laser cannon (!). The weapon has destroyed test-ordinance at a height of 2km. Unconfirmed suggestion it is a field-deployment of an adaptation of the British Sea Dragon laser AA system.

...40 motorcycles were destroyed.

Mentalist, on 17 December 2024 - 06:00 PM, said:

... horrible battle mosquitos ...hostile infected birds ...

guys... has someone somewhere been watching too many GI Joe cartoons???

[Chance]

Just been lurking for a while but this thread is great keep up the good work.

Abyss, on 17 December 2024 - 06:30 PM, said:

guys... has someone somewhere been watching too many GI Joe cartoons???

We are living in the future and it is both terrifying and awesome!

[Werthead]

France has agreed to train and equip a second Ukrainian brigade in full.

After a few less-bloody days, things have returned to normal for Russia with over 1,600 losses in the last day or so. The Rostselmash Plant in Rostov-on-Don, where vehicles are repaired, was hit by drones, whilst the nearby Atlas oil depot took heavy damage and the Kamensky Chemical Plant was also struck. Additional targets were hit in Taganrog.

For the second day in a row, around 80 Shahed drones were launched at Ukraine. Yesterday, 79 drones were destroyed or suppressed with EW and only 1 made it through, whilst today all 81 drones launched were destroyed. Russia seems to be getting increasingly frustrated that Shahed effectiveness has fallen off a cliff whilst Ukrainian drone effectiveness has improved (Baba Yaga now seems to have an autonomous operation package so can engage targets even if cut off from the operator, which given its large payload is quite something). Meanwhile, Russian AA successfully shot down one of its own helicopters.

The US government has said currently-planned deliveries to Ukraine up to 20 January will be enough to sustain Ukraine through all of 2025 regardless of the next administration's plans. Ukrainian sources say that's optimistic, but they should be able to get through to around July or August before encountering any difficulties.

NATO has taken over military aid coordination to Ukraine from the US.

Current Ukrainian policy seems focused on removing the last Russian forces from Kharkiv Oblast. There seems to be some concern that Russia will try to swap its occupied territory in Kharkiv for Kursk, leaving the territories of the four annexed oblasts up in the air. If Ukraine can push Russia out of Kharkiv altogether (not an imminent prospect), then the only territory Russia can swap for Kursk is in the four annexed oblasts, which creates legal headaches for Putin. This assumes Ukraine can hold Kursk, although it has repulsed heavy attacks in the last few days at the cost of giving up small slivers of ground.

After seeing some transitional documents, Kellogg has confirmed that Russia's losses are five times heavier than Ukraine's, which matches all the information we've seen so far.

Ukraine has started a separate count for North Korean casualties, with the first count being around 200 killed or injured so far.

A Ukrainian drone hit a North Korean column with a Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer plush doll strapped to the front. Unclear whether this was appreciated.

An ex-Russian intelligence officer has confirmed that Russia has executed "many" soldiers for refusing to go on suicidal assault missions, and morale is miserable as a result.

Russian milbloggers are warning of a possible Ukrainian attack into Russian territory from Sumy. This seems unlikely when Russia itself is grinding forwards in the Donbas and where there are some indications of a renewed Russian push in Zaporizhzhia.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 18 December 2024 - 11:44 PM, said:

...A Ukrainian drone hit a North Korean column with a Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer plush doll strapped to the front.
...

The drone or the column?

[Werthead]

Abyss, on 19 December 2024 - 04:31 PM, said:

The drone or the column?

The drone.

Talking about Rudolph in North Korea gets you 7 years in prison.

[Macros]

Wait, what??

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 19 December 2024 - 06:54 PM, said:

Abyss, on 19 December 2024 - 04:31 PM, said:

The drone or the column?

The drone.

Talking about Rudolph in North Korea gets you 7 years in prison.

How many does Santa get you?

[Mentalist]

Explosions in Murmans'k Oblast', next to the main base of the Northern Fleet (that's the one that has all the nuclear subs)

VVH did his annual "direct line" presser today. He explained to the orc populace that the underlying reason for the war was.... *checks notes* "a need to shake things up"

...



...



Also, the inflation is a thing, b/c Muscovites are buying too much stuff. Because they are too rich, y'know?

Also worth noting, he suggested that NATO should pick a site in Kyiv to defend with their best anti-air, and he will aim an Oreshnik there, to show how much better it is, in what he's calling a "technological duel"

Even the Z-heads are beginning to dount how solid his grasp on reality is, a little bit.

CentroBank will declare if it's hiking up interest rates tomorrow. Have the popcorn ready.

EDIT: UAF HQ reporting 2200 orc casualties over the past 24h. A new record.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: Yesterday, 06:31 AM

[Werthead]

T-62s are now among the most regularly-appearing destroyed Russian tanks, indicating they are relying more heavily on older stock. Russia is also losing 4 IFVs for every 1 tank that is destroyed. The Russians also seem to have seen sanity and stopped sending T-54s and T-55s to the battlefield, instead rotating them in as training vehicles away from the front.

One Ukrainian recon drone was spotted by two North Korean soldiers, who both opened fire in an attempt to destroy it. For some reason one of the soldiers tried to fire through his comrade, to the former's disquiet (and presumable pain as he was carried off the battlefield).

During an engagement in Pischchane, Kharkiv, Russian forces tried to storm a position which was held by only one Ukrainian soldier. However, he was supported by a dozen or so drones. Between them, they killed six Russian soldiers, wounded an unknown further quantity and the rest retreated. Whilst not ideal, the tactic of using very small Ukrainian forces to hold positions supported by drones and long-range fire might explain a lot about how Ukraine is maintaining some areas of the front against large-scale enemy attacks.

Ukraine has advanced and retaken the village of Kamyanske in the Vasylivka area, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, taking Russian units by surprise. Some Russian units are clinging to the edge of the village but are likely to be dislodged soon. The Ukrainians attacked with heavy drone assistance. Russian sources on Telegram fuming because they've been warning of a Ukrainian counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia for a while (meanwhile, other sources have been warning of a Russian build-up in Zaporizhzhia for a while as well).

First Dragon drone sightings in a while. They seemed to slacken off, apparently some reports that Russia had found a way to jam them, but it seems this advantage has been nullified and now they're back torching trenches.

Trump is apparently planning to tell other NATO countries to raise their spending to 5% of GDP, which is odd because that's more than the US spends (3.4%). Most NATO countries would struggle to his this target. Trump is apparently willing to "settle" for 3.5% (likely a new US target) and any country meeting or exceeding this target would get favourable US trade deals. Poland is the only country currently exceeding this figure but Estonia, Latvia and Greece are not far off.

Ukraine has confirmed that all Russian gas transiting Ukraine to Europe will be switched off on 1 January. This is a major problem for Hungary and Slovakia. Ukraine: "Oh well."