[Werthead]

Russian recruiters are undertaking crackdowns on Russia's nightlife under the cover of their anti-LGBT legislation. In reality they are press-ganging hundreds of young men into the war and making it seem like they are gay, so there will be less outcry about it. Extremely cynical even by Putin's standards.

Scholz in Ukraine. He and Zelensky unveiled a joint Ukrainian-German project, a drone based on the Shahed design which apparently fits a larger warhead on a smaller airframe with an AI-driven homing system. New Patriot launchers will arrive in Ukraine from Germany this month, along with Gepard AA systems (which have proven unexpectedly potent at anti-drone measures). Scholz was asked about Taurus but dodged the question.

Simultaneously, Baerbock in Beijing to discuss German-Chinese efforts to promote peace in this and other conflicts.

More Russian attacks repulsed in Kursk. One attack saw three BTR-82ATs destroyed in rapid succession. Heavy Ukrainian drone action near Vovchansk, apparently a renewed effort to force Russian forces back across the border and clear Kharkiv Oblast (again), though there's still the interdiction to the east near Kupyansk.

Russian government officials have apparently been instructed to begin preparing for Russian victory celebrations in 2025 or 2026. Apparently, a variety of scenarios have been laid out including the war ending with the lines very close to where they are now, and advice on how all of these scenarios can be sold on a "just victory worth the blood." However, all the scenarios talk about the "demilitarisation of Ukraine" and it being prevented from joining NATO.

The Kurakhove front continues to move in Russia's favour, but the quick Russian advances of recent days may have slowed as Russian forces suffer heavier losses along the front. Almost 1,800 Russian casualties again yesterday (in the whole theatre, not that one battle).

Six Ukrainian children kidnapped early in the war have been repatriated to Ukraine.

31 Russian drones entered Belarusian airspace overnight, apparently in error.

One Russian unit which had to withdraw its position found a vast quantity of abandoned food a couple of miles behind the lines. Apparently their supply corps had refused to go right to the very front in case they were targeted by drones, so ditched the supplies short of the front. One Russian servicemen declared, "we had f---ing nothing to eat!" Another Russian soldier recorded an attempted infantry attack, where only 8 troops were available to advance on a Ukrainian position. All 8 went forward, but 5 were killed and the remaining 3 all injured to some extent.

The head of VTB, Russia's second-largest bank, is gloomy. He believes even if the war ends tomorrow, the forex reserves will not be returned but instead given to Ukraine. He is not optimistic on the state of the gold and currency reserves. He thinks sanctions will take some time to be withdrawn, and in the meantime the Russian economy will contract significantly.

"Volunteers" from Myanmar and Laos have apparently joined Russian units on the front.

Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces in Russia have evacuated completely from Hama in Syria, and some forces in Damascus have relocated to the coast in case they need rapid extraction.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 02 December 2024 - 08:31 PM

[Mentalist]

It would appear the syrian frontline shifted north of the city of Hama, but the overall offensive has slowed down. Possibly because the Turkiye-backed groups that spearheaded the offensive got involved with removing Kurdish enclaves in Aleppo province.


Georgian protests are ongoing nightly, but we aren't seeing any permanent presence on the street that can resist the police presence. The number of civil servants that break with the Georgian Dream government is growing slowly, and President Zurabashvili declared the new parliament to be illegitimate and refused to step down once it elects a new Pres in December. It remains to be seen if she's going to be able to form an alternative government that could seize control of key ministries. According to Georgian commentators, the opposition continues to be dis-united, and they aren't presenting a single, proactive front that could focus the popular protests.

It appears everyone is waiting until escalation of violence reaches its eventual conclusion, with police applying lethal force. Or until Zurabashvili and the opposition can gain enough momentum to de-facto overtake the reins of government. Either way, it's still touch and go.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 03 December 2024 - 03:04 PM

[Werthead]

Putin's niece, deputy defence minister Anna Tsivilyova, has (inadvertently?) confirmed that there are over 48,000 missing Russian soldiers in the war to date. The likelihood is these have been killed and not identified, with probably a small number going AWOL.

Kadyrov has confirmed he made up the whole getting a Cybertruck from Musk as a present thing, surprising nobody.

NATO is planning to field fleets of USVs with seafloor-imaging capabilities in both the Baltic and Mediterranean by next summer. These will monitor the status of undersea cables in realtime.

The head of the Russian Central Bank has said that it will take two years to bring inflation under control. Experts think they mean "...after the war ends." There's little they can do to address the problem whilst the war continues and spending remains out of control.

Opposition party leaders in Georgia have had their offices raided by police.

Tucker Carlson has visited Russia again to interview Lavrov. Wild rumour that he interviewed Assad at the same time, before the latter returned to Syria.

[Mentalist]

Hama has fallen. How far will the push on Homs get? Will the Assadists set up a defensive line at Al-Rastan (given there's a pretty wide river there to anchor to)? or will Homs fold as well, severing Damascus from the orc bases in Tartus and Latakia? (EDIT: considering that the Shiite city of Salamiyah negotiated surrender to the insurgents, and it lies on a highway Raqqua-Homs that bypasses the Orontes river, probably not /edit)D

Geogian Dream started detaining opposition party heads. At the same time, this was the first night without the cops trying to "disperse" the protesters. Unclear what this implies. On Saturday, the new GD parliament will attempt to vote in a new pres to replace Zurabishvili.

The orcs continue pushing in Donets'k Oblast. UAF managed to recover Novy Komar, securing the flank of Velyka Novosilka, at least for now. In Torets'k, Kurakhove and Chasiv Yar they are advancing slowly through high-rise blocks. They also tried crossking the Oskil N of Kup'yans'k, but the UAF eliminated that bridgehead.

The US is scrambling to assign all the aid that's been authorized by Congress in the spring; But it seems to be slow-going.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 05 December 2024 - 05:37 PM

[Werthead]

There's a lesson to be learned here that maybe you should not spend five years of relative peace (checks notes) creating a national-sized drug export business whilst your opponents are training and professionalising their armed forces and stockpiling thousands of missiles and rockets.

Putin was basically telling Assad to pull his finger out and train up his military, and win over allies in the Arab world, and Assad was like "Sure," and then mass-producing amphetamines to sell to Saudi Arabian kids (the SA government, weirdly, was not impressed). Assad outsource his entire military defence to Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, which is fine until one of those three gets embroiled in a ludicrously costly war and another one gets smashed to pieces by Israel, leaving the third to say, "well, tough luck I guess."

The Chinese embassy has told Chinese citizens to leave Syria immediately, and basically told them if they stay, on their own heads be the consequences. That's unusually blunt.

Anti-air and anti-drone elements have been deployed to Damascus rooftops, there's massive traffic outflow from the capital and from Homs.

I'm taking a wild guess that Syrian citizens are not massively confident that the government can stop the opposition at Homs.

ETA: Someone on social media pointed out HTS' reforms are basically a reintroduction of the Milet system of the Ottoman Empire, which is interesting. HTS are pushing some serious PR narratives at the moment, pointing to a 2022 reorganisation of their constitution which explicitly protects Christians as co-religionists (which caused a schism with their Al-Qaeda hardcore), the smooth and safe transfer of operation of the Aleppo health system, and that Assad-supporting police and militia have been given a blanket amnesty and allowed to either go home or transfer into the HTS military wing. HTS is also apparently inviting UN observers into Aleppo (the UN already has observer offices in Idlib). They're also trying, at least, to restrain the SNA (Turkish-backed forces) from attacking the SDF (Kurdish-led forces) and brokering peace deals between them on the ground. They're certainly making the right noises towards being taken seriously as a post-civil war legitimate government in waiting (they have 11 government ministries set up and staffed, allegedly). They're also making a lot of noises about eliminating IS once and for all once Assad is gone, a possible olive branch to the US (who still designate HTS as a terrorist organisation).

To what degree all of that is reliable is questionable.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 05 December 2024 - 10:24 PM

[Mentalist]

Uprising S of Damascus. These areas weren't really conquered, so much as they brokered deals with the Assadists. And now those are being broken. Jordan is closing its border checkpoints to see what happens

Assadists are pulling out of Deir Ez Zor in the East, leaving the city to the SDF. Who are moving westward in numbers, b/c ISIS is coming from the desert, trying to fill the vacuum.

HTS already taking towns on northern outskirts of Homs.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 05 December 2024 - 10:24 PM, said:

....
ETA: Someone on social media pointed out HTS' reforms ....

To what degree all of that is reliable is questionable.

What is not questionable tho, is that they have someone clever and probably western educated in charge or next to whoever is in charge. This degree of pretending to be reasonable/sophisticated/organized is rare in a Middle-East/N African paramilitary/terrorist/revolutionary/alternative-lifestyle group.

[Mentalist]

Abyss, on 06 December 2024 - 05:26 PM, said:

Werthead, on 05 December 2024 - 10:24 PM, said:

....
ETA: Someone on social media pointed out HTS' reforms ....

To what degree all of that is reliable is questionable.

What is not questionable tho, is that they have someone clever and probably western educated in charge or next to whoever is in charge. This degree of pretending to be reasonable/sophisticated/organized is rare in a Middle-East/N African paramilitary/terrorist/revolutionary/alternative-lifestyle group.

According to Tom Cooper, one of the original SNA leaders who led a portion of the old Syrian army to join the (old, secular) opposition, is now working with HTS.

They are definitely making all the right, state-minded moves at the moment. Things are going to get messy once they try to delineate things with the SDF, though.

[Werthead]

The SDF has taken most of the eastern border, whilst most of the southern border has collapsed and declared opposition to Assad. HTS forces are now spreading along the northern edge of Homs.

Russia appears to be abandoning the Hmeimin Airbase. Helicopters are relocating to the Tartus Naval Base and Damascus. Unclear where the aircraft are going to go, apparently there's even an Su-57 there. Presumably they will evacuate back to Russia. There was a video of a captured Russian helicopter with a rebel pilot watching a YouTube video on how to get it working.

Erdogan called Assad and offered a constructive discussion on Syria's future. Reading between the line, Assad told him to F off. Subsequently Erdogan has given HTS his blessing and support.

A trilateral meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Iran, Iraq and Syria met today to discuss "options to save Assad," which can be read several ways. An unnamed source in the Iraqi delegation said, "Assad can't even defend a police station," referring to the rapid surrender of the police in both Aleppo and Hama to HTS. Rebel drones have hit the Ministry of Defence building in Damascus itself.

HTS soldiers are enforcing a policy of "no revenge." Where HTS or allied soldiers have been found trying to take revenge on government forces, they seem to have been punished (at least where it's caught on camera, what's happening elsewhere is less clear, of course).

I think this is game over, or close.

[Werthead]

Russia's entire fleet at Tartus has pulled out. Three frigates, a submarine and two auxiliary vessels have all departed in the last few hours, leaving no ship at anchor there at all. One suggestion they are taking part in an exercise and will return.

Some suggestion that the Druze militias who have taken control of Sweida may move to declare their own state, which if it consisted of the wider Sweida region would have a population of 85% Druze, 10% Christian and 5% everything else, making it the first non-Muslim state in the Middle East since Israel. However, potentially more likely that they will seek a federal arrangement post-Assad with strong autonomy. Interesting to see what HTS' view is on that.

A group of Syrian border guards on the Lebanese frontier have apparently taken refuge in Lebanon.

The entire Quineitra province south of Damascus has gone over to the opposition.

Prison guards and staff at several prisons in the area surrounding Damascus have just left, in some cases opening all the gates and letting the prisoners out.

The Thala Airbase in the south has surrendered control to the southern rebels. The Syrian government forces seem to be keener to surrender or cut deals with the Druze-Christian-democratic rebels in the south than with HTS.

Palmyra has surrendered to opposition fighters, unclear if that's SNA or SDF (both are in the area).

The southern opposition forces have advanced to within 30km of Damascus and are now operating in Damascus Governate, probably why the prisons have been opened. Some forward operating units (i.e. guys in Technicals) have reached Darayya, 7km from the centre of Damascus, and apparently were seen chatting calmly with local police and officials.

HTS has entered Homs, unclear to what degree that's being contested. They've also captured most of the plains towns west to the mountains. They haven't advanced towards the Russian positions just yet.

Qatana, a small town just 20km SW from central Damascus, is now reported as having surrendered.

I'm wondering if Assad will survive the day at this rate.

Back in Ukraine, the Ukrainians seem to have repurposed some of their older, less-stealthier drones into drone-carriers, launching more capable, smaller drones to give them superior range. Ukraine is also deploying jet-drones with autonomous AI target-seeking and a range of over 700km. Ukraine also now estimates that around 35% of Russian oil production and storage facilities have been damaged by Ukrainian attacks, with several destroyed outright.

ETA: Southern rebel forces have taken over Kafar Sousah, which is basically the southern suburb of Damascus, and are pouring into the city. Syrian police officers and soldiers have downed their guns and some have removed their uniforms and joined the opposition. Portraits of Assad in Darayya have been pulled down.

Syrian soldiers abandoning their positions near the Presidential Palace. Unconfirmed reports of Assad fleeing the country.

CNN and Turkish news reporting that Assad has left Damascus for Abu Dhabi.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 07 December 2024 - 06:49 PM

[Mentalist]

Homs has fallen, and the Assadist forces are evacuating to the coast.

The orcs flew in several airlifters into Khmeymin airbase- potentially evacuation ongoing?


Damascus is in chaos. The insurgents are approaching from the S (mostly Christian/Druze communities), and the FSA is pushing E from the desert, with American backing.


SDF is trying to secure territory W of the Euphrates, but a lot of the local Arabs are not too happy with this, and are saying they control this area for HTS. Meanwhile, SNA continues to push on SDF-held Manbij in the North.

Zelensky met with Trump and Macron in Paris today. He also had a meeting with Georgian President Zurabishvili, assuring her of support. UA has imposed sanctions on the Georgian Dream leaders and is supporting the protesters.

Crucial turning point for Georgia will be on Monday, when the GD plans to vote on a new President, and this take away Zurabishvili's lefitimacy. Since she already preemptively said she won't be quitting until a new parliament is elected, this is going to bring the legitimacy crisis to its peak- will GD use force to depose her? How will the public react?

Ukrainians, meanwhile, continue damaging stuff in the Black Sea, inflicting heavy losses to the orcs in Kursk, and slowly giving ground in Donbas. Least dynamic frontline atm.

[Tiste Simeon]

Damascus has fallen and seemingly Assad has fled and I'm sure I saw something on Reddit about how the plane he was in has disappeared but I've not seen anything further from this.

Will this mean more Russians available to head to Ukraine or will they stick around the region to try and regain power for the Russian allies?

[Werthead]

Syrian embassies around the world are changing their flag (from the red-tinged one seen as a symbol of the Assad regime to the green-tinged one). Even the Syrian soccer team updated their logo.

Opposition fighters giving people a video tour of Assad's "small" car collection, which consists of a hundred-odd vehicles and fills an aircraft hanger.

SNA forces are apparently still fighting with SDF forces near Manbij, other factions are offering to negotiate a ceasefire.

Israel has used warning shots to keep opposition fighters away from the border of the Golan Heights. They are taking a wait-and-see approach whilst Syria sorts itself out. They are pleased at the elimination of Iranian and Hezbollah support in Syria, but are wary of what might follow.

Iranian ships that were headed for Syria have abruptly turned around in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Suez.

The Iranian and Italian embassies in Damascus have been broken into and looted. The Italian staff were not harmed. Italy probably ruing its, "let's bring Assad in from the cold," policy.

Latakia has overthrown the symbols of the regime as well. Even a statue of Assad's father in Tartus has been toppled, near the Russian naval base.

The Syrian Prime Minister was hiding in the Four Seasons Hotel (not Landscaping) and escorted out under armed guard, apparently to then be asked what he was doing, he's still the Prime Minister. He's apparently agreed to head the interim transition government. Huh.

Sednayah Prison has been thrown open and the captives liberated. Many women there, some with children.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

When Sergiy Antonenko came to, he was on fire.

As he regained consciousness, the Ukrainian sniper realized the blaze set off by the makeshift explosive was all around him. It took nearly every remaining ounce of energy he had to roll into the river [...]

Where the burns came, the bacteria followed. In his case, a species of Klebsiella so vicious that no antibiotic in modern medicine's arsenal could stop it from feasting on his flesh, entering his bloodstream, and throwing the then-28-year-old into life-threatening sepsis. [...]

Since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out [... anti-microbial resistant microbe] levels in [Eastern Europe and central Asia] have "exploded." [...] They found that bacteria resistant to some of the heaviest-hitting drugs available were 10 times more common in Ukraine than in the European Union.

Spoiler

the death rate of vulnerable populations like the elderly due to superbugs had increased by over 80 percent between 1990 and 2021. [...] Research indicates that as the detritus of war — warheads, spent munitions, and the wreckage of pummeled cities — drains into surrounding waterways, it creates heavy-metal-infused cesspools in which AMRs thrive.

[...] Meanwhile, [...] superbugs are jumping from soldiers injured in the field to civilians [... and] spreading rapidly[...] citizens in places already least equipped to respond to health crises, like Ukraine or Gaza — where doctors on the ground were already documenting the spread of superbugs one month after Hamas' October 7th attack — are facing still-more-brooding threats due to AMRs. And as refugees flee war-torn countries, those organisms may be on the move[...]

According to [...] the World Health Organization's AMR lead in Ukraine, the effect of that conflict on the spread of superbugs is already apparent. "The map — it looks terrible[...] We suspect the impact will be very big."

How Conflicts Around the Globe Are Breeding Our Next Pandemic

Another reason for the rest of humanity to have a major vested interest in ending this and other wars... if we live long enough, unless there are major breakthroughs before then, some of us will probably die from AMRs spawned in these wars as they proliferate across the globe.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 08 December 2024 - 04:01 PM

[Garak]

We had a presidential candidate who told everyone medicine is a hoax, the sun can cure everything, viruses don't exist. And there are plenty of morons who think that's the utter truth. Constant war making diseases stronger? Nah, man, that's a conspiracy theory - that's how they get you. Embrace the healing sun!!!!!

Seriously the last two weeks of political crap here have given me sanity damage I swear.

[Mentalist]

Assad apparently surfaced in Moscow.

Seems Putler decided he doesn't need those East Med bases, after all.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 08 December 2024 - 09:54 PM

[Garak]

Actual confirmed sighting? I know Russia has said he's there but if they tell me the sky is blue I'll go check it first, you know.

[Abyss]

Garak, on 08 December 2024 - 10:12 PM, said:

Actual confirmed sighting? I know Russia has said he's there but if they tell me the sky is blue I'll go check it first, you know.

A confirmed sighting would require him to stand near a window.

[Mentalist]

Garak, on 08 December 2024 - 10:12 PM, said:

Actual confirmed sighting? I know Russia has said he's there but if they tell me the sky is blue I'll go check it first, you know.

I mean, Yanukovych is still living his best years in exile in Rostov, so I don't find it strange.
And it feels weird to double down on supporting Assad and pissing off the HTS who have your bases at their mercy if you don't actually have him.

FWIW, our HUR (Main Directorate of Intelligence) corroborated from their sources that the orcs helped to fake the plane crash to make sure he got out of Syrian airspace safely.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 09 December 2024 - 03:08 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

Abyss, on 09 December 2024 - 02:46 AM, said:

Garak, on 08 December 2024 - 10:12 PM, said:

Actual confirmed sighting? I know Russia has said he's there but if they tell me the sky is blue I'll go check it first, you know.

A confirmed sighting would require him to stand near a window.

I can't see why they can't do that to prove he's there, we all know how secure Russian widows are.