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The Financial Times has an interesting story on Gazprom. The company has outlined decreasing revenues and the risk of revenues going into free-fall. Its exports to Europe have collapsed and it has failed to source alternate components for many of its facilities which rely on Europe, Korean or Japanese-bult components. This had sharply pushed up maintenance costs, as they have to acquire replacement components through convoluted supply chains and black markets. They are also weighing in on the growing trade row with China, with China's proposed payments for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline being so miserly that at best, and in full operation, the income will be less than one-third that of what it was from Europe. They are also complaining about Ukrainian attacks on their oil facilities, which are hard to defend against. Gazprom's LPG operations are also in their infancy and cannot develop properly with the technology they have to hand, meaning Gazprom cannot operating in the LPG space effectively and are at the mercy of foreign competitors (particularly the US). All of these things mean a collapse in revenues for the company, accelerated by the Moscow government taxing them increasingly heavily. Gazprom have indicated that they need to rise prices at the Russian gas pump but are being prevented from doing so by central government. Unless they can raise prices, then their income will simply collapse. Putin, of course, does not want pump prices to go up as that will be a public declaration of the failure in their policies.
After the S-400s were taken out around Belgorod, the number of glide bombs and air-launched missiles on the Vovchansk/Kharkiv front seem to have dropped swiftly. Once again, Russian pilots are now refusing to fly into a forward position without strong AA cover from the ground. How many more S-400s Russia can redeploy is unclear, with some estimates suggesting that around 12-15% of their entire inventory has been destroyed and to rush more to the front will start leaving air defence holes elsewhere in southern Russia, or they'll have to start stripping AA systems away from the cities.
Artillery bombardments are continuing but seem to be decreasing in frequency as the Russian gunners are switching back to shoot-and-scoot tactics.
Russian Telegram has an interesting claim that Putin has been told that in the current offensive Ukraine has lost 50,000 troops KIA and is telling everyone excitedly in his circle, but nobody is buying it but him. Hmm.
Pyotr Tolstoy, a deputy of the State Duma, got annoyed with reports saying Belgorod was under attack and flew to Belgorod personally to show it wasn't scary. During his visit the air raid warning went off and he spent an hour hiding in a basement.
Putin has hosted a meeting, making the extraordinary claim that he will accept the denazification of Ukraine as being the "banning of Nazi propaganda on the territory of Ukraine." Apparently Ukraine doing exactly that years ago (including barring senior members of the Azov Battalion who were basically Neo-Nazis from military service years before the invasion even started) wasn't good enough for him.
Ukraine estimates now that Russia has lost 513,700 troops since February 2022, injured or killed. The KIA rate is estimated by Ukraine at roughly 210-220,000. Western estimates are lagging behind but recently ticked into the upper 100,000s.
Ukrainian counter-attacks in Vovchansk seem to have stepped up after the surrender of an entire company last week, which seems to have opened a hole in Russia's lines. Several streets have been retaken and Russian forces pushed further back north. The Ukrainian strategy is to deny them time to dig in. They are also hitting rear areas hard with artillery and drones. Ukraine may be planning a more ambitious counter-offensive in this sector, but Russia does have reserves available it has not yet deployed.
Ukraine has hit the Russian Novoshakhtinsk refinery, destroying an anti-drone defensive screen and then a fuel system.
Russian forces sortied a major assault in Vovchansk but were halted by the Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade. The marines counter-attacked, overrunning the Russian position. Two Russian assault companies were destroyed, with their commanders both surrendering, along with four surviving soldiers. All the other troops in the two formations were killed.
Ukraine is using a fairly significant drone fleet to strike Russian targets across the Dnipro. Recon drones spot targets, small kamikaze drones destroy individual targets and large heavy bomber drones go after headquarters, staging areas and weapons dumps. Russian soldiers watch and even film the drone fleet flying overhead every night, angrily asking where their defences are.
France is planning to transfer Mirage 2000-5 aircraft to Ukraine. Macron has set a deadline for the transfer of before the end of this year, with Ukrainian pilots taking part in an aggressive five-month training programme. France has also committed to both training and equipping an entire brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers.
Ukrainian Su-27s are hitting Russian positions in the south hard with glide bombs. It looks like Russia has still not been able to move AA assets forwards to cover that sector (Kherson and Robotyne further east).
Japan has successfully delivered over 100 military support vehicles to Ukraine, including Mitsubishi trucks and Toyota HMVs.
One interesting analysis pointing out that by extending the front, Russia has stretched its operational capabilities and kind of defeated the point of withdrawing troops from Kyiv and Kharkiv two years ago in the first place, being able to focus the available manpower on taking the Donbas. By extending the front to Kharkiv and potentially Sumy without a further mobilisation round, they're achieving much lower force density than is needed to achieve objectives, given Ukraine's ability to reinforce critical sectors much more quickly (because Ukraine is operating on internal lines and Russia on external lines). This is also apparent in vehicle density and supply lines.
Russia's currently most in-demand supply vehicle is the UAZ-452 "Loaf", which has 4-wheel drive, is relatively cheap and nippy even if relatively full. However, it's also a 1960s-vintage upgraded camper van, with the survivability of toilet paper if hit by a drone, or if a drone lands within about five feet of it. Insanely, Russian crowdfunding efforts seem to be focusing on getting more Loaves built, because they can be thrown together in days, rather than anything more useful.
Retired judge Natalia Larina has fallen out of her apartment window. Before she died, she apparently sent her savings and a newly-acquired bank loan to Ukraine (!). Confused reports if she was scammed or this was a genuine betrayal.
Crime rates in Russia are soaring over last year's figures, and last year was horrendous (with gun battles in broad daylight between different Russian Mafia factions in some cities). Murders, violent robberies and crime are all up. The Russian police seems to be mostly focused on clamping down on dissenters and finding draft-dodgers (unless they're involved in organised crime, in which case they generally ignore them).
This post has been edited by Werthead: 06 June 2024 - 11:06 PM
